competitive access technologies 110206

Competitive Access Technologies

SCTE November 2, 2006

David R. KozischekManager Strategic Technology

Corning Cable Systems

2

• Purpose• Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber

– Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth• Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth• Data…Needs versus Wants• Demographic Change• Bandwidth per Application• Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth• Video Compression• Increase in the number of digital “streams”

• Technology Analysis (Downstream and Upstream)– HFC– ADSL & VDSL– PON

• Future of Cable, DSL and FTTH• Verizon Deployment Update

Competitive Access TechnologiesOutline

3

• What this Presentation Provides– Analysis of the technical limitations of different access solutions to deliver Voice, Video and Data

services to residential customers

• What this Presentation DOES NOT Provide– Economic and/or financial analysis of the different access solutions

Competitive Access TechnologiesPurpose

4



• Technology Analysis– HFC– ADSL & VDSL– PON


5

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber

• Koz Theorem… Residential customers will want the same bandwidth at home that they get at work

Avg Work (Desktop) Speeds vs Max & Avg Res SpeedsData Only

-

20

40

60

80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mb

ps

Avg Desk Top BW (Mb/s)

Max (Power users) Res BW (Mb/s)

Avg Res BW (Mb/s)

Avg Res BW (Mbps) Source: TechnologiesFutures Inc. 2004

Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling

Power Users

6


• For Data, its not what the Customers need…. It’s what they WANT

10

20 5

7


• Demographic Change

Percent UsingBroadband

60%60%55%50%49%45%34%

8


• Application change– Files get bigger so speed per

application needs to increase

In 1993 the Average File size was 22 kb

Top 25 File ExtensionsRank type App Average Size (MB)

1 avi video 17302 mp3 audio 44 exe software 7.25 mpeg video 209 wav audio 15

25 jpeg image 0.044Source eMarketer Oct 2003

Note: This shows a Shift in demographics. This Analysis was done at UC-Berkley.These are the type of files the Next-Generation will beUploading and downloading

9

Bandwidth Demand – Today and Tomorrow Symmetric traffic load when bandwidth is available

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

10:00 AM 4:00 PM 10:00 PM 4:00 AM 10:00 AM

Upload – Avg. 0.589 GB

Download – Avg. 0.584 GB

Total GB transferred each hour(Feb 1 / 2 , 2005)

10

20

30

40

50

60

12/16/04 12/23/04 12/30/04 1/6/05 1/13/05

Total GB transferred each day

Upload – Avg. 16.6 GB

Download – Avg. 20.4 GB

Courtesy of Paxio Inc.Courtesy of Paxio Inc.

In 1993 the Average File size

was 22 kb

Top 25 File Extensions

Rank Type Application Avg. Size(in MB)

1 .avi Video 1730

2 .mp3 Audio 4

4 .exe Software 7.2

5 .mpeg Video 20

9 .wav Audio 15

25 .jpeg Image 0.044

Source: eMarketer, October 2003

10


• Application change– Files get bigger so speed per application needs to

increase…Example-Digital Cameras

Digital Camera File Size (MB) vs Megapixels

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6

MPixels

MB

ytes

File Size (MB)


11

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber• Video Compression lowers bandwidth requirements• MPEG-2 • MPEG-4 • H.263 • H.264/AVC • Window Media 9 Series Video Codec

1080p will require approx

16Mbps

12


• Video does not Stop with HDTV

13


• Increase in Digital “Streams”– Personal video recorders will impact residential bandwidth by

increasing the number of digital streams

Digital TV Subs vs PVR's

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mil

lio

ns

Digital TV Subs

PVR's

Source: eMarketer 2004 and Corning Cable Systems

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGRDigital TV Subs 44.2 50 58 68 78 93.0 117.0 140.2 168.0 201.3 20%PVR's 3.2 5.9 10.4 16.7 25.3 36.0 47.0 66.4 93.7 132.3 41%% of HH W/DVR 7% 12% 18% 25% 32% 39% 40% 47% 56% 66%

14

2003 2004 2005Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) Mbps Mbps Mbps Max Data (Dwn) 2 3 4Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064VoD 4 4 4Std TV 4 4 4HDTV 19 15 13PVR Factor (% HDTV) 7% 12% 19%

2003 2004 2005Digital Streams Qty Qty QtyData (Dwn) 1 1 1Voice 1 3 3VoD 1 1 1Std TV 2 1 1HDTV 0 0.5 1Add Stream 0 0.12 0.19Max (Mbps) 14.1 19.2 25.9Source: CCS SPBD Modeling

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)• Number and Type of Digital Streams Increase

– PVR’s and Pic-in-Pic will increase bandwidth Requirements– HDTV will increase bandwidth requirements

Power Users

15

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)

• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and IP Video– Avg values

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bandwidth Requirements (Avg) Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps MbpsAvg Users (Mbps) 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.0 4.3 6.1 8.7 12.3 17.5 24.8Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064VoD 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2Std TV 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2HDTV 19 15 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 8PVR Factor (% HDTV) 7% 12% 18% 25% 32% 39% 40% 47% 56% 66%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Digital Streams Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty QtyData (Dwn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Voice 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3VoD 0 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5Std TV 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1HDTV 0 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Add Stream 0 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.24 0.29 0.30 0.35 0.42 0.49Avg (Mbps) 8.9 14.0 14.9 18.1 22.4 25.1 27.8 31.8 37.5 43.9

HSD BW Demand Grows at 42% CAGR

16


• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and IP Video– Max values for the “Power User”

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Power Users (Mbps) HSD 1 2 3 4.8 7.7 12.3 19.7 31.5 50.3 80.5Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064VoD 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2Std TV 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2HDTV 19 15 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 8PVR Factor (% HDTV) 7% 12% 18% 25% 32% 39% 40% 47% 56% 66%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Digital Streams Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty QtyData (Dwn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Voice 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3VoD 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1Std TV 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1HDTV 0 0.5 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2Add Stream 0 0.12 0.18 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.40 0.47 0.56 0.66Avg Num of Computers/HH 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 2 3 3 3Avg Num of TVs/HH 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4Max Power Users (Mbps) 13.1 18.2 24.9 25.4 30.5 37.6 45.1 57.4 77.0 106.0

HSD BW Demand Grows at 60% CAGR

17


• Number of Video Streams

Averager user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 2 3 3 3 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0Total Video TV Streams 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5

Power user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7Total Video TV Streams 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7

Averager user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 2 3 3 3 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0Total Video TV Streams 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5

Power user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7Total Video TV Streams 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7

Power users will start to separate from Avg user in 2008

18

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling-IP Video (Downstream Analysis)

• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-

2012

Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps

Max Power Users (Mbps)

Avg Users (Mbps)


19

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling-RF Video (Downstream Analysis)

• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Graphic View (Max-

Power Users and Average Users) 2003-2012

Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (RF Video)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps Max Power Users (Mbps)

Avg Users (Mbps)

20

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-IP & RF Video (Downstream Analysis)

• Bandwidth Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Bandwidth Requirements are Driven by Delivery Platform

• Telco IPTV over Twisted Pair• CATV MSO RF Video over HFCEstimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements

Max versus Average (IP Video)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps

Max Power Users (Mbps)Avg Users (Mbps)


xx% of Subs that require > 25 Mbps

Note: From Technologies Futures Inc. 2005, Fisher-Pry Substitution model.

2% 20% 60%


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mbp

s


Avg Users (Mbps)

21

Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements(Max vs Avg)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps

Max Power Users (Mbps)Avg (Mbps)

Jas Shangha, AFCIOC 2004 (Mbps)MDV Average

MDV top 10%


Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)

• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-

2012

CCS SPBDModeling

CCS SPBDModeling

Power Users

22


• What Does it Mean?– Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive

Weapon– Marketing will Target and Exploit the “User Experience”

MP3 Music FileFile Size (MB) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4File Size (Mbps) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32Downstream Rate (Mbps) 0.5 1 2 4 5 10 15 25 50Downstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Downstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.375 0.75 1.5 3 3.75 7.5 11.25 18.75 37.5Time to Download (sec) 85.33 42.67 21.33 10.67 8.53 4.27 2.84 1.71 0.85Time to Download (Min) 1.42 0.71 0.36 0.18 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01

Digital Photos FileFile Size (MB) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60File Size (Mbps) 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480Downstream Rate (Mbps) 0.5 1 2 4 5 10 15 25 50Downstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Downstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.375 0.75 1.5 3 3.75 7.5 11.25 18.75 37.5Time to Download (sec) 1280.00 640.00 320.00 160.00 128.00 64.00 42.67 25.60 12.80Time to Download (Min) 21.33 10.67 5.33 2.67 2.13 1.07 0.71 0.43 0.21Source:CCS SPBD

DSL

Cable FTTH

23


• What Does it Mean?– Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive

Weapon– Marketing will Target and Exploit the “User Experience”

HDTV 2 Hr Movie Download File Size (MB) 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000File Size (Mbps) 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000Downstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 5 10 25 50 100Downstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Downstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 3.75 7.5 18.75 37.5 75Time to Download (sec) 750000 500000 250000 192000 38400 19200 7680 3840 1920Time to Download (Min) 12500 8333 4167 3200 640 320 128 64 32Time to Download (Hrs) 208 139 69 53 11 5 2 1.1 0.5Time to Download (Days) 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0Source:CCS SPBD

DSL

Cable FTTH

24

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)

• Bandwidth Curve Extrapolation

Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements(Power vs Normal User)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Mb

ps


Normal Users (Mbps)

25


• Drivers for Increased Bandwidth– “The 1 and 2 Min Drills”

Application Download Times (Min)

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

1 5 10 100 500 1000 10000Mbps

Min

MP3

MS Office

Dig Photos (60MB)

File (100MB)

10 Mbps will enable < 2 Min Downloads for

most of today’s Applications

>60Mbps will be needed for

< 1 Min Downloads for most of today’s

Applications

26

Application Download Times (Min)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1 5 10 100 500 1000 10000Mbps

Min

DVD

HD DVD


• Drivers for Increased Bandwidth– “The 1 and 2 Min Drills”

>1 Gbps will enable < 2 Min Downloads for

tomorrows Applications

10 Gbps will be needed for < 1 Min Downloads for tomorrows Applications

27



• Technology Analysis (Downstream and Upstream)– HFC– ADSL & VDSL– PON


28

Technology Analysis

• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON

29

• Increase in Downstream Channel Allocation– Digital Services require Spectrum

• Data• Standard Digital TV/High Definition TV• VOD

5 MHz 860 MHz54 MHz 550 MHz

6MHz Data

64 QAM=10 SDTV CH256 QAM=12-15 SDTV CH

64 QAM=3 SDTV CH, 1 HDTV CH256 QAM=5 SDTV CH, 1 HDTV CH256 QAM= 2 HDTV CH

VOD 10 Streams

6MHz

6MHz

6MHz

Increase in new service penetration will lead to

allocation of more downstream channels

Data

SDTV

HDTV

VoD

CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)

30

• DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0– Residential Bandwidth is a function of Homes per Node


Cable Modem (Max DWN Rate vs HH/Node)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

500 400 300 200 150 100 50Homes per Node

Mb

ps Data (Dwn) DOCSIS 1.0-2.X

Data (Dwn) DOCSIS 3.0


33


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps Max Power Users (Mbps)

Avg Users (Mbps)

• DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0– Residential Bandwidth Requirements vs Cable Capabilities– For HFC you need to look at Data Delivery… Video can be Handled

by QAM


DOCSIS 2.0 can support Power Users Residential BW Requirements Out to 2010

DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 500 HHP/Node

DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node

DOCSIS 3.0 @ 100 HHP/Node

34

Estimated Max Residential Bandwidth Requirements

0

20

40

60

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps

Cable Modem (Max DWN Rate vs HH/Node)

0

20

40

60

80

500 400 300 200 150 100 50Homes per Node

Mb

ps

DOCSIS 1.0-2.XMaxDw n Rate (Mbps)

DOCSIS 3.0 MaxDw n Rate (Mbps)

Source: Corning Cable Systems


• DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0– Keep RF Video

In 2007 HFC networks will need to be<150 Homes per node for DOCSIS 2.0…Average today is 400 H/N

In 2010 HFC networks will need to be<50 Homes per node for DOCSIS 2.0 and < 200 for DOCSIS 3.0

Power Users

35

Technology Analysis

• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON• WiMax• BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)

36

CapabilitiesADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)

• Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line– Copper Solution

ADSLMUX

Local Loop

Services

Data

Voice

ADSLmodem

OC-3, OC-12

POTS Splitter

37


• PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit

streams

Note: These Loop Lengths are the MAX distance you can deploy and still be able to deliver the Max Data Rate

ADSL ADSL2Bonded ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL VDSL

VDSL2 Band

VDSL3 Band

VDSL4 Band

VDSL5 Band

Bandwidth Capabilities Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps MbpsData Down (Max) 9 12 25 25 55 25 35 65 65 100Data Up 0.8 1 1 1 6 3 6 11 35 35

Length Requirements Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft FtLoop Length (Max) 9000 5000 6000 3000 1000 3000 1000 1000 1000 500

40

Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (IP Video)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps




• PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be Digital Bit Streams– VDSL at 3000 Feet is not Enough Bandwidth

VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop

VDSL @ 3000Ft Loop

VDSL @ 1000Ft Loop

41

Technology Analysis (Downstream)


42

CapabilitiesPON

SiSi

OLT

ONT

SiSi

SiSi

SiSi

Splitter

Optical Distribution Network

SiSi

OLT

ONT

SiSi

SiSi

SiSi

Splitter


SiSi

OLT

ONT

SiSi

SiSi

SiSi

Splitter


• B-PON (Today) G-PON (Tomorrow• Full Service Access Network (FSAN)• ATM Network• Split Ratio up to 32 for B-PON• Split Ratio up to 128 for G-PON

Network Line Rates

Upstream Downstream UnitB-PON 155 155 Mb/s

622 622 Mb/s155

Upstream Downstream UnitG-PON 155 Gb/s

622 Gb/s1.244 Gb/s2.488 2.488 Gb/s

1.244 or 2.488UnitMb/sMb/sGb/sGb/s

UnitMb/sMb/s

1.244 or 2.4881.244 or 2.488

Figure 16

Upstream Downstream UnitB-PON 155 155 Mb/s

622 622 Mb/s155


622 Gb/s1.244 Gb/s2.488 2.488 Gb/s


622 Gb/s1.244 Gb/s2.488 2.488 Gb/s

1.244 or 2.488UnitMb/sMb/sGb/sGb/s

UnitMb/sMb/s

1.244 or 2.4881.244 or 2.488

Figure 16

43

CapabilitiesPON w RF Video (Downstream Analysis)

• PON Networks Migration– Data is handled by ATM protocol– Video is RF

Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements Vs PON CapabilitiesRF Video

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps


PON BW per Sub (1x32 Split)

PON BW per Sub (1x32 -1x64 Split)

Avg (Mbps)


BPON @ 622 Mbps

GPON @ 1.244 Gbps

GPON @ 2.488 Gbps

44

CapabilitiesPON w/ IP Video (Downstream Analysis)

• PON Networks Migration– Data is handled by ATM protocol– Video is IP

Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements Vs PON CapabilitiesIP Video

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps




Avg (Mbps)


Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements Vs PON CapabilitiesIP Video

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps




Avg (Mbps)


PON can meet Avg and Max BW Demand and improve Efficiencies by migrating to higher split rations

Power Users

Figure 17a

BPON 622 Mb/s

GPON 1.244 Gb/s

GPON 2.488 Gb/s

46

CapabilitiesPON w IP Video (Downstream Analysis)• PON Network Migration

– IP Video is Easily Migrated into the Network– FTTH will Migrate to 2.4Gbps PONs….They will “Bypass” 1.2Gbps

PONs

Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (IP Video)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps



BPON @ 1x32 Split

1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split


47

Technology Analysis (Upstream)


48

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) File Size Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Internet Web Page Requests 0.2 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20Peer to Peer Video Transfer (MPG2) 480 480 480 480 489.60 499.39 509.38 519.57 529.96 540.56Peer to Peer Audio Transfer (MP3) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32Peer to Peer Soft Transfer (exe) 58 60.90 63.95 67.14 70.50 74.02 77.73 81.61 85.69 89.98Email send Pics (Dig Photos) 30 33.00 36.30 39.93 43.92 48.32 53.15 58.46 64.31 70.74Large File (exe) aka Norton Antivirus 800 816.00 832.32 848.97 865.95 883.26 900.93 918.95 937.33 956.07Large File (Video) 2hr DVD 48000 48000 48000 48000 48000 52800 58080 63888 70277 77304

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) Streaming Apps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps MbpsGaming 0.50 0.70 0.98 1.37 1.92 2.69 3.76 5.27 7.38 10.33Peer to Peer Video 0.38 0.58 0.86 1.30 1.94 2.92 4.37 6.56 9.84 14.76Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064

Upload Time Max (sec) 200000.0 120000.0 72000.0 43200.0 25920.0 15552.0 9331.2 5598.7 3359.2 2015.5Avg Num of Computers/HH 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 2 3 3 3

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Digital Streams Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Internet Web Page Requests 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Peer to Peer Video Transfer (MPG2) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Peer to Peer Audio Transfer (MP3) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Peer to Peer Soft Transfer (exe) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Email send Pics (Dig Photos) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Large File (exe) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Large File (Video) 2hr DVD 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Digital Streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Gaming 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65Peer to Peer Video 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65Voice 1 1 1 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55Max BW for Non_realtime (Mbps) 49400.2 49422.1 49444.8 49468.2 49502.2 54337.2 59653.4 65498.8 71926.3 78994.0Max BW for realtime (Mbps) 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.02 1.42 2.87 5.35 9.50 16.35

Source: CCS SPBD Modeling 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012File Size (MB) 6175 6178 6181 6184 6188 6792 7457 8187 8991 9874File Size (Mbps) 49400 49422 49445 49468 49502 54337 59653 65499 71926 78994Upstream Rate (Mbps) Power User 0.373 0.579 0.922 1.447 2.406 5.791 10.865 19.977 36.268 65.336Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Time to Upload (sec) 200000 120000 72000 43200 25920 15552 9331 5599 3359 2016Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User 0.373 0.450 0.547 0.620 0.775 2.460 4.296 7.305 12.183 20.024

Application 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Internet Web Page Requests 0.54 0.35 0.22 0.14 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00Peer to Peer Video Transfer (MPG2) 1288 829 520 332 203 86 47 26 15 8Peer to Peer Audio Transfer (MP3) 86 55 35 22 13 6 3 2 1 0Peer to Peer Soft Transfer (exe) 156 105 69 46 29 13 7 4 2 1Email send Pics (Dig Photos) 80.48 57.01 39.35 27.59 18.25 8.34 4.89 2.93 1.77 1.08Large File (exe) 2146 1410 902 587 360 153 83 46 26 15

49

Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)

• What Does it Mean?– Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive Weapon

MP3 Music FileFile Size (MB) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4File Size (Mbps) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32Upstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 2 4 8 16 40Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Upstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 1.5 3 6 12 30Time to Upload (sec) 166.67 111.11 55.56 42.67 21.33 10.67 5.33 2.67 1.07Time to Upload (Min) 2.78 1.85 0.93 0.71 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.04 0.02

Digital PhotosFile Size (MB) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60File Size (Mbps) 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480Upstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 2 4 8 16 40Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Upstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 1.5 3 6 12 30Time to Upload (sec) 2500.00 1666.67 833.33 640.00 320.00 160.00 80.00 40.00 16.00Time to Upload (Min) 41.67 27.78 13.89 10.67 5.33 2.67 1.33 0.67 0.27

DSL

Cable FTTH

50


• What Does it Mean?– New Value-added Services are Enabled by High Upstream Bandwidth

Hard Drive Back-UP File Size (MB) 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000File Size (Mbps) 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000Upstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 5 10 25 50 100Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Upstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 3.75 7.5 18.75 37.5 75Time to Upload (sec) 2500000 1666667 833333 640000 128000 64000 25600 12800 6400Time to Upload (Min) 41667 27778 13889 10667 2133 1067 427 213 107Time to Upload (Hrs) 694 463 231 178 36 18 7 4 2Time to Upload (Days) 29 19 10 7 1 1 0 0 0Source:CCS SPBD

To Back up a 60 GB hard drive, with a 1 Mbps

Upstream bandwidth would take 7 DAYS …You Need at least 50Mbps to offer this Service

DSL

Cable FTTH

51


Estimated Upstream Residential Bandwidth Requirements

0

20

40

60

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps

Upstream Rate (Mbps) Pow er User

Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User


52



55


0

20

40

60

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps




CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Upstream Analysis)



DOCSIS 1.0 @ 500HHP/Node

56



59


0

20

40

60

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps




CapabilitiesADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Upstream Analysis)

• DSL– No Bonding

Note: 3000 ft Loops can support UpBW out to 2007 with VDSLNeed 500 ft Loops to support UpBW out to 2010 with VDSL5

VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop

VDSL @ 1000Ft LoopVDSL @ 3000Ft

Loop

60



63


0

20

40

60

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps




CapabilitiesPON w IP Video (Upstream Analysis)

• PON– 1 x32 Splits

Note: PON…Build OncePlenty of UpBW for High Symmetrical Service

Note: Telco’s will Probably move to 2.4Gpon from BPON

BPON @ 1x32 Split



64

Technology Analysis (Summary)• Who Wins?

– Depends on “Who” you Compete With and “How” you Compete…Note: Service and Quality are “Table Stakes”

• Have Robust HDTV Offering…This willBe difficult with the current Platform

• High Speed Data…Need 10/2 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2008• High Speed Data… Need 25/25 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2010

• Telco w/FTTN Vs MSO

• Telco Needs to…

• Have Robust HDTV Offering• High Speed Data…Need 50/50 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2008• High Speed Data… Need 100/100 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2010

• Telco w/FTTP Vs MSO

• Telco Needs to…

The MSO can “EASILY” Match this with Little Investment

The MSO will have to Invest to Match

65

Technology Analysis


66

CapabilitiesWiMax

• Line of Sight and Non-Line of Sight

This could be a Fiber

Link

This is typically a Fiber Link

67

CapabilitiesWiMax

This is Shared

BW

68

CapabilitiesWiMax• WiMax Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream

– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams• So WiMax needs to supply 14Mbps today and 56Mbps tomorrow• WiMax can only achieve 1.2Mbps at very low penetration rates

Modem Speed CalculatorMax Dwn Rate DWN Rt 75 MbpsMax Up Rate Up Rt 75 MbpsHouseholds Passed per WiMax Ant (5 Mile Radius) HHP/Node 5000 NumberBroadband Penetration on Node BB Pen Rate 20% %% of modems on line at the same time Peak Hr Modem on-line 25% %% of modems on line at the same time rec Dwn Data Peak Hr Modem Dwn Data 25% %% of modems on line at the same time Tx Up Data Peak Hr Modem Up Data 25% %Max rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max DWN Rate 1.2 MbpsMax rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max Up Rate 1.2 Mbps

Source: CCS Strategic Planning Modeling

69

Technology Analysis


70

CapabilitiesBPL

• BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)

Injects a low Frequency signal at the last Power Station before the house. Data rate at this point is 20-40Mbps

The distribution is a “bus” so the BW is Shared. The voltage is 3-12kv

At the house the Transformer at the pole has to be bypassed

Some use wireless at the pole, some will re-inject the signal onto the 240v drop

Connections to computers are made at any elec outlet

A 50MVA Sub can service approx 1200 homes

71

CapabilitiesBPL

72

CapabilitiesBPL

• BPL Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams

• BPL’s need to supply 14Mbps today and 56Mbps tomorrow• Most BPL networks can support about 500kbps to the subscriber

BPL Can NOT support Today OR Tomorrow BW requirements

Modem Speed CalculatorMax Dwn Rate DWN Rt 20 MbpsMax Up Rate Up Rt 20 MbpsHouseholds Passed per BPL Dist HHP/Node 1200 NumberBroadband Penetration on Node BB Pen Rate 50% %% of modems on line at the same time Peak Hr Modem on-line 25% %% of modems on line at the same time rec Dwn Data Peak Hr Modem Dwn Data 25% %% of modems on line at the same time Tx Up Data Peak Hr Modem Up Data 25% %Max rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max DWN Rate 0.5 MbpsMax rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max Up Rate 0.5 Mbps

Source: CCS Strategic Planning Modeling

What does all this Bandwidth Mean?The Future of Cable, DSL & FTTH (US)

74

“Universe” Total US Households

The Future of FTTH (US)

Total US Households

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Mil

lio

ns

Total US HH

Total US HH (actual)

Source: Futures Technologies Inc, CCS SPBD

75

Cable Modem Adoption as a Percentage of US HH

The Future of FTTH (US)History can Predict the Future

US Cable Modem Penetration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

US Cable Modem HH

US Cable Modem HH (actual)

b=.145

Note: b value is a measure of how fast a technology is adopted

Source: TIA, CCS SPBD

76

US DSL Penetration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

US DSL Households

US DSL HH (actual)

DSL Adoption as a Percentage of US HH


b=.154

Note: b value is a measure of how fast a technology is adopted


77

CM & DSL Adoption as a Percentage of US HH Without FTTH as a Substitution



CM and DSL Penetration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

CM Adoption

DSL Adoption

Total Penetration

78

US FTTH Penetration-HH Connected

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

US FTTH Con 125%

US FTTH Con 100%

US FTTH Con 75%

US FTTH Con 50%

US FTTH HH (actual)

FTTH Adoption as a Percentage of US HH (Four Futures) 50% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis 75% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT 100% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO 125% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO_Aggressive


b=.152

Source: RVA, CCS SPBD

79

CM_DSL Vs FTTH Lifecycle Curves

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CM & DSL

FTTH Gz 50% Pene

FTTH Substitution for CM and DSL 50% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis 75% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT 100% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO 125% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO_Aggressive


Source: RVA, CCS SPBD


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

CM & DSL

FTTH Gz 75% Pene


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CM & DSL

FTTH Gz 100% Pene


0%20%40%

60%80%

100%CM & DSL

FTTH GZ 125% Pene

What is going on with FTTH?The Competition (US)

81

What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition

82


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84


85


86


87


Thank you

competitive access technologies 110206

Documents

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video bandwidth requirements

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