comparisons of the response of simulated ozone concentrations to changes in emissions using the...

Comparisons of the Response of Simulated Ozone Concentrations to Changes in Emissions Using the Carbon Bond IV and SAPRC99 Chemical Mechanisms

Bruce Jackson, Eugene Yang, Ajith Kaduwela, and William Vance

California Environmental Protection Agency/Air Resources Board Planning and Technical Support Division

California Air Resources Board/PTSD April, 2005

Alternative Chemical Mechanisms

Carbon Bond IV (Gery, et. al., 1989)

32 Chemical Species92 Chemical Reactions

SAPRC99f (Carter, et. al., 2000)

76 Chemical Species217 Chemical Reactions

* the number of chemical species and reactions may vary among the different air quality models.


Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS) August 5, 1997 -- Subregion 04

CALGRID Air Quality Model -- Updated to SAPRC99f116x80x16 Cells -- Simulation begun August 2

04

Pacific Ocean


0306

08

Central California Ozone Study (CCOS)July 31-August 02, 2000 -- Subregions 03, 06, and 08

CAMx Air Quality Model185x185x16 Cells -- Simulation Begun July 29

Pacific Ocean


Obs. Sim. Net Gross Pk. Pk Bias Error ppb ppb % %

CALGRID/CB4 187 142 -08 28CALGRID/S99f 187 157 +03 29

CALGRID Ozone Model Performance for August 5, 1997in Subregion 04 of the SCOS Domain

* highlighted results met USEPA (1991) air quality model performance guidelines


Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 UPkR NB UPkR NB UPKR NB ppb % ppb % ppb %

CAMx/CB4 ModelZone 03 0.94 +02 1.02 -10 0.84 -43Zone 06 1.28 +07 1.02 -04 0.99 -15Zone 08 1.03 -12 0.98 -15 0.85 -15

CAMx/S99f ModelZone 03 1.09 -03 1.07 -04 1.14 -46Zone 06 1.39 +12 1.03 -07 1.06 -11Zone 08 1.09 -03 1.07 -04 0.96 -05

CAMx Ozone Model Performance for the July/August, 2000CCOS Episode

* highlighted results met USEPA (1991) air quality model performance guidelines


1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Relative ROG Emissions

Rel

ativ

e N

Ox

Em

issi

ons

142

164

172

164

133

125

142

152

153

128

111

117

136

140

122

100

102

112

120

112

92

88

90

102

96

Year 1997 (CB4) 1-hour Peaks in the Riverside Area

Maximum Daily Ozone Concentrations (ppb) as Functions of ROG and NOx Emissions Reductions for August 5, 1997 in Subregion04 of the SCOS Domain Using CALGRID/CBIV

* ozone concentration contours are 20 ppb.


1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0


Rel

ativ

e N

Ox

Em

issi

ons

142

164

172

164

133

125

142

152

153

128

111

117

136

140

122

100

102

112

120

112

92

88

90

102

96

Year 1997 (CB4) 1-hour Peaks in the Riverside Area

1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Relative ROG EmissionsR

elat

ive

NO

x E

mis

sion

s

157

174

184

172

131

134

147

159

160

127

114

119

135

142

120

97

99

103

116

109

83

81

83

87

91

Year 1997 (SAPRC99f ) 1-hour Peaks in the Riverside Area

CALGRID/CBIV CALGRID/SAPRC99f

Daily Maximum Ozone Concentration (ppb) Simulated in Subregion 04 of the SCOS Domain, on August 5, 1997


1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0


Rel

ativ

e N

Ox

Em

issi

ons

15

10

12

8

-2

9

5

7

7

-1

3

2

-1

2

-2

-3

-3

-9

-4

-3

-9

-7

-7

-15

-5

Year 2000 (SAPRC99-CB4) 1-hour Dif ferences the Riverside Area

Differences (SAPRC99f - CBIV) Between Maximum Ozone Concentrations (ppb) Simulated in Subregion 04 on August 5, 1997within the SCOS Domain

* positive differences are marked with solid lines, negative differences are marked with dashed lines. Contour intervals are 2 ppb ozone.


1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0


Rel

ativ

e N

Ox

Em

issi

ons

5

5

4

4

2

2

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

2

0

-2

-2

0

0

-1

-5

-4

-4

-2

-1

Year 2000 (SAPRC99-CB4) 1-hour Dif ferences the S.F. Bay Area


Differences (SAPRC99f - CBIV) Between Maximum Ozone Concentrations (ppb)Simulated in Subregion 03 on July 31, 2000 within the CCOS Domain


1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0


Rel

ativ

e N

Ox

Em

issi

ons

4

4

3

1

-2

4

2

3

1

-3

1

0

1

-1

-3

-1

-2

-1

-1

-3

-4

-4

-4

-3

-4

Year 2000 (SAPRC99-CB4) 1-hour Dif ferences the Sacramento Area


Differences (SAPRC99f - CBIV) Between Maximum Ozone Concentrations (ppb)Simulated in Subregion 06 on August 01, 2000 within the CCOS Domain


1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0


Rel

ativ

e N

Ox

Em

issi

ons

8

7

8

8

6

4

5

5

6

5

1

1

1

3

4

-2

-2

-1

-1

2

-4

-4

-5

-5

-1

Year 2000 (SAPRC99-CB4) 1-hour Dif ferences the Southern SJV


Differences (SAPRC99f - CBIV) Between Maximum Ozone Concentrations (ppb)Simulated in Subregion 08 on August 02, 2000 within the CCOS Domain


Species CCOS Zone Zone ZoneCategory Domain 03 06 08 CO 7837 2215 1596 384

NO2 174 48 36 13 NO 1689 426 341 132 HONO 35 10 7 3total NOx 1898 484 384 148

OLE 384 17 53 6 PAR 1667 219 265 74 TOL 113 33 26 5 XYL 132 38 27 6 FORM 35 9 8 2 ALD2 511 29 56 12 ETH 86 19 16 4 MEOH 451 17 57 5 ETOH 62 12 14 4 ISOP 1981 74 253 13total ROG 5422 467 775 131

ratioROG/NOx 2.9 1.0 2.0 0.9

Daily Emissions (tons) for Selected Subregions of the 2000 CCOS Domain


SYNOPSIS

the SAPRC99f chemical mechanism is more sensitiveto changes in ROG and NOx emissions than the Carbon Bond IV mechanism.

the relative responses of the SARPRC99f and Carbon BondIV chemical mechanisms to changes in NOx emissions aresimilar for environments with excess NOx concentrations.


comparisons of the response of simulated ozone concentrations to changes in emissions using the...

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