comparing the economics of using unit trains and … the economics of using unit trains and manifest...
TRANSCRIPT
Comparing The Economics Of Using Unit Trains And Manifest Trains, Relative To Pricing At Destination,
To Determine Which System Is Most Effective In Increasing Netback
Presented by: Jarrett Zielinski
President & CEO of TORQ Transloading
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Disclaimer
Certain information provided in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements. The words “may”, “will”, “plan”, “predict”, “estimate”, “believe”, “continue”, “intends”, “anticipate”, “expect”, or “project”, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Although TORQ Transloading Inc. or any affiliate thereof (collectively “TORQ”) believes such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to certain risks, changes in government regulation, uncertainties and assumptions pertaining to operating performance, regulatory parameters, energy markets, economic conditions, etc. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary significantly from those expected. The cautionary statements qualify all forward-looking statements attributable to TORQ and persons acting in or on its behalf.
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Agenda
• Assumptions/Overview • Manifest Train Discussion • Unit Train Discussion • Manifest & Unit Train Economics • Pipeline Economics • Conclusion • Who is Torq Transloading Inc.?
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Rail Terminal Assumptions/Overview
• All rail terminals are different thus so are economics • Geography • Available land • Proximity to rail
• WCSB is NOT Bakken • Bakken – One homogeneous light density product, virtually no
pipe takeaway • WCSB – Multitude of crude types
• Primarily heavy crude • Significant pipeline infrastructure
• Heavy undiluted crude requires heating to ~80 degrees Celsius to overcome high viscosity
• Each crude type requires additional infrastructure and procedures
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Manifest Trains/Loading • Manifest train:
– Comprised of small blocks mixed car types and cargos – Multiple commodities, origins and destinations – Cars aggregated at distribution yard
• Manifest Loading Operations: – Not all manifest operations are the same – Track/Siding typically less than 40 cars – Typically manifest train may carry 10,000 to 15,000 bbls – Land area typically less than 20 acres – Portable metering – move meter to the cars – Trucked in crude oil production
• Loaded directly to tank car through custody transfer meter – At least one operator per meter/car being loaded – Small blocks of cars filled and released for pick up daily
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Pros & Cons of Manifest Trains Pros:
ü Speed to operations ü Relatively low capital
requirements ü Generally direct truck-to-rail ü Portable measurement
instrument ü Generally no need to move
cars ü Basic permitting/regulatory
approval required ü Often using existing rail
infrastructure ü Scalable ü Neatness preserved ü Reach niche production areas ü Requires few rail cars
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Cons: – Economies of scale limitations – Rail freight costs – Truck meets train logistics – Non dedicated rail service – Labour intensive/Less
automated – Longer turn times/ Tank car
costs – Heavy crude heat loss
Unit Trains/Loading • Unit train:
– Assembled at single origin, disassembled at single destination – Comprised of single commodity – Train is not broken up or stored at distribution yard
• Unit Train Loading Operations/Information:
– Not all unit train terminals are created equally • Ladder vs. Loop
– $85MM to $125MM capital cost – Trend toward 120 car trains (7,800 feet) – Terminals trending to 35,000 feet of track – 45,000 bbls to 84,000 bbls – Typically requires 200+ acres of relatively flat land – Fixed metering and loading infrastructure – Tankage required for rateability (3:1 daily throughput) – Pipe or truck to tank to rail – Bulk loading – 118 cars in 12 hour period – Automated loading and spill prevention program 9
Pros & Cons of Unit Trains Pros:
ü Economies of scale ü Bulk loading ü Rail freight efficiencies ü Less heavy crude cooling ü Reduced turn times ü Dedicated rail service ü Less labour intensive ü Remove truck rateability from
rail service via tanks ü Scalable ü Neatness preserved ü Most suitable for oil hub
locations
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Cons: – Relatively high capital costs – Longer lead time (12 – 18
months) – Current destination market
limitations – Not suitable for niche
production areas – Requires significant car fleet
The Same But Different
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Manifest Rail
Unit Train Rail Pipeline
Working Capital Requirements
Exit Cost
Speed to Sanction
Scale of Commitment
Quality & Neatness
Speed to Market
Scalability
Ratable Capacities
New Niche Plays
Established Hub Markets
Heavy Oil / Diluent Avoidance
Market Flexibility (current)
Dependability
Economics: Manifest vs. Unit
Low AVG High Low AVG High Low AVG HighStorage/Gathering $0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.30 $0.50 $0.75 $0.30 $0.25 $0.25Loading $1.50 $1.75 $2.25 $1.75 $2.00 $2.15 $0.25 $0.25 -$0.10Rail Freight (incl FSC) $13.09 $14.55 $17.64 $10.91 $12.18 $13.45 -$2.18 -$2.36 -$4.18Tank Car Lease $3.27 $4.09 $4.81 $2.05 $2.34 $2.73 -$1.23 -$1.75 -$2.09Unload/Storage $0.70 $2.00 $3.00 $0.70 $2.00 $2.75 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.25TOTAL $18.56 $22.64 $28.20 $15.70 $19.02 $21.83 -$2.86 -$3.62 -$6.37Assumptions: Car Turns/Mo. 1.25 1 0.85 2 1.75 1.5 0.75 0.75 0.65
Car Lease/Mo. $2,250 $2,250 $2,250 $2,250 $2,250 $2,250 $2,250 $2,250 $2,250
Bbls of Undilute LLK/car 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550
Cost Delta - Unit vs. Manifest
Undiluted Bitumen Unit Train
Undiluted Bitumen Manifest CarsCosts/Delivery
APPROXIMATE PER BARRELL CBR COSTS MANIFEST VS. UNIT TRAIN - KERROBERT TO USGC
Economics: Manifest vs. Unit vs. Pipeline
Raw Bitumen Kerrobert to USGC Cost Per BBLUSGC Bitumen Price (LLK/Maya = -$4) $95.00AVG Per BBL Costs Kerrobert to USGC Manifest $22.64AVG Per BBL Costs Kerrobert to USGC Unit $19.02Producer Net Back - Kerrobert Manifest $72.36Producer Net Back - Kerrobert Unit $75.98
USGC Dilbit Price (WCS @ Houston = WCS - $14.50) $91.50Feeder Tariff -$1.91Diluent Penalty (assuming 985kg density) -$4.94Hardisty to Flanagan -$3.97Spearhead Tariff - Uncommitted -$2.15Seaway Tariff - Uncommitted -$4.32Tankage (throughout supply chain) -$1.50
TOTAL COST -$18.79PRODUCER NET BACK GROSS BBL $72.71
DILBIT PIPE ENBRIDGE - SPEARHEAD - SEAWAY
Conclusion: Manifest vs. Unit vs. Pipeline
Undiluted Bitumen - Rail - Manifest to USGC $72.36Undiluted Bitumen - Rail - Unit Train to USGC $75.98Pipeline - Enbridge - Spearhead - Seaway $72.71
Unit Train Rail Advantage to Pipe $3.27
BITUMEN PRODUCER NET BACK SUMMARY
Who is TORQ Transloading Inc. • Borne from producer demand for takeaway alternatives in
single shipper market • Currently operate 6 crude-by-rail terminals in Alberta and
Saskatchewan – 35,000 - 40,000 bpd
• Independent fee-for-service midstream service company – Sister company Goulet Trucking
• Integrated truck-to-rail package • Kerrobert Pipeline to rail – 2014 • Product exposure is 80% Heavy - 20% Light
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24% 76%
WCSB Market Share (December 2012)
Torq Others