Comparative Transitions to DemocracyUniversity Masaryk in Brno

Unit V. The Development of the “Transitology”: Classic Transitions to

Democracy in the 1970 and 1980s

Lecturer: Oscar Hidalgo-RedondoDate: 28 April 2009

5.1 The Collapse of the Second Democratising Wave

Second wave: since 1945post-WWII democratisation

countries that lost the warcountries that need to regenerate political

structuresnew countries

2 different scenariosscenarios of success

post-fascist regimesregeneration of democratic structures

scenarios of collapsenew regimesauthoritarianism and violence

By 1960, the dream of worldwide extension of democracy was overcollapse of new-born democracies

Difficult processCold War scenario

internal forces divided: civil warsfriendly rogues

Regional dynamicsde-stabilising focus

Economic performancebroken promises of democracydissatisfaction

Lack of democratic maturitypolitical cultures’ compatibility with democracyelite behaviours

In 1960 many countries that initiated a process of changeaborted democratisationin 1960 democratic recession

5.2 Scenarios for Democratisation in the 1970s

Third wave of democratisation will begin in the 1970sin European authoritarian regimes

maturationexhaustion lack of legitimacy

Portugal, Greece and Spaindifferent contexts

length of authoritarian regimelong, Portugal and Spainshort, Greece

type of rulermilitary, Spain and Greececivilian, Portugal

sharing one common elementsocieties’ maturity and support of democracy

Transitions will be differentPortugal and Greece, revolutionary characterSpain, transaction

Transitions different from the Second waveinternal leadsocieties demand democratisation

Transitions are studiedgenerate models of regime transformation“science” of the transition

to be applied to other cases

From Southern Europeto Latin America

Bolivia 1982 Brazil 1985 Paraguay 1989 Ecuador 1979Argentina 1983 Peru 1979 Chile 1990 Uruguay 1985

to other continentsAfricaAsiaEastern Europe

Third wave transitions become the theoretical benchmark to study processes of democratisation

5.3 Democracy in the Third Wave

Subsequent waves of democracy have expanded the understanding of democracy

long cycle, political rightssecond wave, social rightsthird wave, 3 generation rights

“post-modern”, “post-materialist” rightscultural rightsenvironmental protectionconsumers’ rights

adding advances registered in the most developed states

New stage in the history of constitutionalismdeepening the understanding of the meaning of

democracyfrom the politicalto the non-political

Democratisation as a process with an internal drivevs. second wave, external

transitions as a response to internal developmentsexternal factors as catalysers

not the ingredients of the transitiondemocratisation as a result to internal maturity

study of the elements that must be present for a process of democratisation to exist

Democracy as an internal dialogue between relevant political actors within the societies

elite in poweropposition leadersthe masses

need of study this relationsguides for success (democratic engineering)

5.4 Modes of Transition in the Third Wave

Focused on the way in which the transfer of power was carried outled by the old elitetaken by the democratisers

Transition as ruptureold elite loses control of the situation

regime does not reproduces its legitimacynew regime is demanded a change

ends with old elite being toppledGreece, Portugal

Transition as a transactionthe quota of power of the old elite is very strong

still in position to negotiateagreement old regime and opposition

Spain

5.5 Transitions as Rupture: Portugal

Salazar’s Portugal Salazar is an academic

traditionalistcountryside, traditional society

conservativeanti-communistreligious

Catholic morals

reach to power after the collapse of the I Republic in 1926disorderdissatisfaction with the performance of the state

military dictatorship1928 Minister of Economy, economic crisis

academic1932 President of Council of Ministers

saviour, redemptory figuresave the state from collapsetake Portugal to success

support for his project: a New State (Estado Novo)

The “New State”union under the leadership of the leader

figure of the “father of the nation”traditionalism: “Deus, Pátria e Familia”state working as a body

corporatism, union of the powers of the state1 party, National Unionsocial organisations

through the staterepression (PVDE-PIDE), enemies of the statepropaganda

1960s, Decline of Salazar’s regimefailed promises of developmentlack of democracycolonial question

India, Goa, Daman, DiuAngola, Cabo Verde, Mozambique

Salazar’s illness

1968 Salazar for is substituted by Marcelo CaetanoCaetano, a gray profile

academic, no popularitymanaging economic crisis

colonial problems social unrest

disintegration of the regime in 1970s

Revolution from within the regimearmy sectors (middle low officers: Captains) coup d’etat

25 April 1974, occupation of strategic pointspopulation supports the army

Movimento das Forças Armadas (MFA) democratising planelections within 1 year

Caetano’s regime crumbles down

National Salvation Junta, military presence1974-5 a turbulent period

Communist Party and revolutionary officersdrive towards socialism

Moderate forces, maintain a democratic order

Division in the armyhierarchyrevolutionary officers

Social confrontationNorth, conservativeSouth, revolutionary

25 April 1975 Constitutional Assembly electionstriumph of moderates, 70% votes for moderatesdraft of new constitution

not fully democratic, threat of revolutionary army

reserves of powerCouncil of the Revolution

1976 Parliamentary regular elections75% votes for constitutionalistsrevolutionaries losing positions

1982 reform of the constitutioncouncil of the revolution

5.6 Transitions as Transaction: Spain

1939 creation of the regimeinfluenced by Fascist regimes and Salazar

corporatist state, led by a central figure: Francisco Franconot very charismaticmilitary man, hierarchy

Evolution in Franco’s regime1939-1954 isolationism, autarky

repressionWWII, “No-belligerence” policyBlockade

economic stagnationscarcity

Cooperation with USAUN membership 1955

1955-1960s “desarrollismo”technocrats, Opus Dei1959 plan of development with WB and IMF

1960s tensionshard-liners (bunker)reformers

1970s weakening of the regimeeconomic crisis, return of emigrantspolitical contestationhealth of Franco

1975 death and transition

Late 1960s Franco realises the debility of his regimemore contestationtransformation of the Spanish societyeconomic difficultiessickness and age

1969 Succession Law King Juan Carlos to become king

attempt to unify the moderate forcesbut Franco was not planning a transition

1973 death of the admiral Carrero BlancoFranco’s selected candidate to rule after him

November 1975 Franco diedKing Juan Carlos I head of state

but surrounded by Francoite officialshardliners, Government leader Arias Navarroreformers, vice-secretary of the Movimiento

Adolfo SuarezJuan Carlos I substituted the Arias for Suarez

alliance Suarez-King Juan Carlos

unite moderate Francoite sectors moderate reformers

regime is not dismantled by a revolutionbut the Francoite assembly finished with the regime

1976 Law for the Political Reform15 December Referendum

Suarez is able to convince main actors of the need of the pact

leaders of democratic partiesmoderates in the Movimiento

1977 free elections for constitutional assemblyPCE legalised

First elections triumph of the moderatesUCD of Suarez 35%PSOE of Gonzalez 30%PCE 9%AP 9%

Constitutional assembly, 1978 democratic constitution