Community Air Risk Evaluation (CARE)

ProgramPhilip Martien, Ph.D.

Senior Advanced Projects AdvisorBay Area Air Quality Management District

CAPCOA ConferenceHealth Impacts of Air Pollution on Communities

September 19-20, 2007

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 2

BAAQMD Background• Regional Air Pollution

Control Agency• Programs to reduce

regional smog and particulate matter (PM)

• Wood-smoke reduction programs

• Climate protection program

• Community Air Risk Evaluation (CARE) program

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 3

CARE Program Objectives• Evaluate regional and

community cancer and non-cancer health risk from ambient toxic air contaminants (TAC)

• Focus health risk mitigation measures on locations with higher risk levels and sensitive populations

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 4

From Emissions of Toxic Air Contaminants to Health

Effects

Chronicle/Kurt Rogers

Emissions Concentrations Exposure Health Effects

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 5

CARE Program: A Three Phase Design

Spring ’04 Fall ’06 Summer ’08 Fall ’09

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 6

CARE Task Force

• 15 members represent government agencies, businesses, health professionals, and community groups

• Provide feedback to District staff on CARE program

• Conduct expert review of work products

• Represent community perspective

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 7

Phase I: Develop TAC Emissions Estimates

• Preliminary TAC emission inventory– Quantify emissions totals

– Map emissions within the Bay Area

• Evaluate and improve TAC inventory– Several rounds of critical review

– Improvements to on-road diesel emissions

– Evaluation of emissions using observations

• Demographic & health data

• Target areas for grant funding

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 8

Cancer Toxicity-Weighted Emissions

By Pollutant

Diesel Particulates

81%

Chromium (hexavalent)

4%

Formaldehyde1%

Benzene5%

Other3%

1,3-Butadiene6%

Construction Equipment

34%

Ships6%

Farm Equipment

4%

Construction & Demolition

3%

Aircraft2%

Recreational Boats1%

Locomotives2%

Other6%

Onroad Mobile

Sources32%

Industrial Fuel Consumption

1%

Industrial & Commercial Equipment

9%

By Source Category

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 9

Chronic, Non-Cancer Toxicity-Weighted

EmissionsBy Pollutant

Acrolein48%

Formaldehyde20%

Cadmium1%

Benzene1%

Butyl cellosolve

1%

Acetaldehyde3%

Manganese4%

Arsenic2%

Nickel1% Other

5%

Diesel Particulates

14%

Aircraft24%

Onroad Mobile

Sources33%

Construction & Mining Equipment

9%

Lawn & Garden

Equipment6%

Recreational Boats4%

Industrial & Commercial Equipment

4%

Ships1%

Paved Road Dust2%

Residential Fuel

Combustion 2%

Solvent Evaporation

3%

Construction & Demolition

3%

Other9%

By Source Category

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 10

Acute Toxicity-Weighted Emissions

By Pollutant By Source Category

Formaldehyde4.0%

Other0.2%

Nickel0.1%

Benzene0.2%Arsenic

1.5%

Acrolein94.0%

Lawn & Garden

Equipment9%

Recreational Boats6%

Other7%

Onroad Mobile

Sources38%

Aircraft40%

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 11

Comparison to Ambient

Measurements

• BAAQMD lab (15 sites) and CARB lab (5 sites)

• Measurements made on a 1-in-12 day schedule

• Data for 1999-2001 used• Quarterly averaged annual

averages

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 12

Ambient VOC Toxic Concentrations vs. Emissions:

Livermore siteTotal

EmissionsAmbient

Concentrations

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 13

Percent Overlap Between Ambient Concentrations and Emissions

VOCs, excluding three compounds frequently below detection limits

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Vallejo

Santa Rosa

San Rafael

San Leandro

San Jose

San Francisco

Richmond - 7th St

Redwood City

Oakland-Davie

Napa

Livermore

Fremont

Fort Cronkite

Crockett

Concord

Bethel Island

ARB

BAAQMD

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 14

Cancer Risk Comparison

• Comparing fractions of lifetime cancer risk from various toxic compounds

• VOCs, chromium VI, diesel PM– need to estimate diesel concentrations– used elemental carbon measurements

(IMPROVE method) to estimate diesel PM

• ARB measurements used– they include formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and

chromium VI– 1,3-butadiene better estimated

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 15

Cancer Risk: Emissions vs. Ambient: San Jose site

Total Emissions

Ambient Concentrations

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 16

• Good agreement between emissions fractions and ambient concentrations

• Good agreement between risk components based on emissions vs. ambient concentrations– Risk from diesel PM greatest, followed by benzene and

1,3-butadiene– Risk overlap from 79% to 92%

• Emissions inventory diesel risk greater than ambient

• Might be a problem with the area source inventory, perhaps construction equipment

Comparison Summary

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 17

Emissions Spatial DistributionDiesel Particulate

MatterAcrolein

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 18

Demographic & Health DataPopulation under 18 Asthma Hospitalization

Rates

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 19

Phase I Findings – Risks from Emitted Pollutants

• About 80% of the emissions weighted by cancer risk are from diesel PM

• About 50% of the emissions weighted by chronic non-cancer risk are from acrolein

• More than 90% of the acute non-cancer risk is also from acrolein

• There are uncertainties associated with the determination of risk

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 20

Phase I Findings - Sources• On-road and off-road diesel emissions–

including trucks, construction, shipping, rail–are large sources of cancer risk

• Gasoline powered vehicles and aircraft are large contributors to non-cancer risk

• The highest densities of diesel PM and acrolein are in eastern S.F. and western Alameda & Contra Costa counties

• These areas also have large numbers of sensitive people

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 21

Mitigation Approaches • Target appropriate mitigation measures to

areas with high TAC emissions and sensitive populations– Focus grant and incentive funding for reducing

mobile-source emissions in target areas

– Enhance information campaigns

– Form local partnerships on issues related to development, housing, and transportation to reduce risk

– Develop model ordinances

– Regulate emissions from stationary and indirect sources

– Support & sponsor legislation

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 22

Next Steps Phase II: Modeling Concentrations

and Continued Mitigation

• Continue to improve emissions estimates– Update to 2005

– Update speciation profiles where possible

• Local & regional modeling– Participate in health risk assessments

• Enhanced measurements

• Additional mitigation measures

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 23

West Oakland Health Risk Assessment

• Local-scale modeling with CALPUFF (diesel PM) • 100 km x 100 km receptor domain• Three-part source domain

Land sourcesPart 1: Port of OaklandPart 2: Union Pacific Rail YardPart 3: West Oakland

Water sources

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 24

Supplemental TAC Measurements

• EPA local-scale air toxics ambient monitoring grant

• Increase density of air quality measurements in West Oakland via “saturation monitoring” – Characterize local-scale pollutant concentrations– Identify “hot spots” – Characterize concentration gradients

• Time integrated and continuous monitoring• Mobile monitoring

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 25

Additional Mitigation Measures

• Propose new regulations and modify existing regulations– Green Ports Initiative – Other stationary sources

• Focus grant and incentive funding in areas with high emissions and/or sensitive populations– Carl Moyer Grants

– Transportation Fund for Clean Air Grants

• Develop guidance for cities, counties, and other public agencies to incorporate in general plans, municipal codes, or other local plans/programs

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 26

• Air District Staff: David Fairley, Cuong Tran, Amir Fanai, Eric Stevenson

• Sonoma Technology Inc.: Steve Reid

• Desert Research Institute: Eric Fujita

• California Air Resources Board: Dan Donohoue

Acknowledgments

September 19-20, 2007 CAPCOA Conference 27

Contact Information

• http://www.baaqmd.gov/CARE

• Phil Martien: pmartien@baaqmd.gov