Communicating the Science, warts and all

Prof Bob Hodge, University of Western Sydney

A Climate for ChangeFederal Parliamentary briefing, 21 March 2011

Science communication: the Science communication: the dominant modeldominant model

• Linear, top-down, one-way flow of knowledge, with Linear, top-down, one-way flow of knowledge, with feed-back processes only to enhance the precision of feed-back processes only to enhance the precision of insertion insertion

• Inequality and difference between ‘expert’ (active, Inequality and difference between ‘expert’ (active, rational, disinterested) and citizen, (passive, rational, disinterested) and citizen, (passive, irrational, uninterested). Communication action not irrational, uninterested). Communication action not relationshiprelationship

• Requiring, expressing, constructing power through Requiring, expressing, constructing power through monopoly of knowledge. BUTmonopoly of knowledge. BUT

• In conditions of high complexity and uncertainty, In conditions of high complexity and uncertainty, simple, linear messages can be dangerous and simple, linear messages can be dangerous and counter-productivecounter-productive

Navigating chaos

• Zadeh: Principle of incompatibility:• Stated informally, the essence of this

principle is that as the complexity of a system increases, our ability to make precise and yet significant statements about its behaviour diminishes until a threshold is reached beyond which precision and significance (or relevance) become almost mutually exclusive characteristics,

Contradiction as strategy• Dr Greg Ayers told a Senate estimates hearing last month that

the Archbishop of Sydney’s argument against human-induced climate change was heavily based on a book by Ian Plimer.. which had been discredited by scientists.

• ‘The contents of the book are simply not scientific. I am concerned that the cardinal has been misled [by its contents]’, the director said.

• But Cardinal Pell told the Herald the statements by Dr Ayers, an atmospheric scientist, were themselves unscientific.

• ‘Ayers when he spoke to the House was obviously a hot-air specialist. I’ve rarely heard such an unscientific contribution.’…

• I regret when a discussion of these things is not based on scientific facts,. Cardinal Pell said. ‘I spend a lot of time studying this stuff.’ SMH 14 March 2011.

Science and Uncertainty• Foreword to ‘Science of Climate Change Q & A. Prof

Kurt Lambech, President of Australian Academy of Science. August 2010.

• It is at the intersection of the disciplines where uncertainty can and will arise, both because of the as yet poorly understood feedbacks between the different components of the climate system, and because of the difficulty of bringing these components together in a single descriptive and predictive model.

• (page 2)