communicating and evaluating probabilities
DESCRIPTION
Communicating and evaluating probabilities. David Spiegelhalter MRC Biostatistics and Statslab CSI day : September 2011 With thanks to Mike Pearson and Ian Short. Summary. Visualisations Met Office experiment Scoring rules for a quiz Spiegelhalter DJ, Short I and Pearson MP (2011) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Communicating and evaluating probabilities
David Spiegelhalter
MRC Biostatistics and Statslab
CSI day: September 2011
With thanks to Mike Pearson and Ian Short
![Page 2: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Summary • Visualisations • Met Office experiment• Scoring rules for a quiz
Spiegelhalter DJ, Short I and Pearson MP (2011) Visualisation of uncertainty about the future. Science 333, 1393-1400
![Page 3: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Kickoff.co.uk
![Page 4: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
“Cone of Uncertainty” for hurricane warnings
![Page 5: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
2011: NBC News for Hurricane Katia
‘Possible futures’
metaphor
![Page 6: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
William Hill 1st June 2011
![Page 7: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Quantifying your ignorance
• Think whether you prefer (A) or (B) for each question
• Then think of how confident you are with your answer
• Give your confidence a number 5 to 10
• Score yourself when you hear the correct answer
![Page 10: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
A short quiz
1. Which is higher, A) the Eiffel tower, B) Canary Wharf? A (324m vs 235m)2. Who is older, A) Prince William or B) Kate Middleton ? B (Born 21/6/82 vs 9/1/82)3. In the IMDB rankings (20/05/2011), which film comes higher, A) Toy Story 3 or B) WALL.E? A (34th vs 50th)4. Which is larger, A) Belgium or B) Switzerland? B (30 vs 41 000 sq km)5. Which is bigger, A) Venus B) Earth? B (6051 vs 6371 km radius)6. Who died first, A) Beethoven or B) Mozart? B (1827 vs 1791)
![Page 11: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Online quiz
![Page 12: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Scoring the quiz
![Page 13: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Current issue: how to break down someone’s total score
![Page 14: Communicating and evaluating probabilities](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062521/56816858550346895dde81e7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Cochrane video