commsday summit 2017: nokia's marcus weldon
TRANSCRIPT
© 2016 Nokia1
The Future of All Things and the Creation of Time
Marcus WeldonPresident of Bell Labs & CTO of Nokia
2 © Nokia 2016
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype, June 2015
Future of automated systems, platforms, infra
t
3 © Nokia 2016
Ways to save/create time
1) Change Time: Use differences in gravity and velocity
2) Change Lifetime: Discover “Fountain of Youth” or bioengineered equivalent
3) Change Usage of Time: This talk
© 2016 Nokia4
Human value: Time
Free Wifi
t
t
© 2016 Nokia5
Business value: TimePro·duc·tiv·i·ty (noun): the effectiveness of productive effort, especially in
industry, as measured in terms of the rate of output per unit of input
t1870-1920 1920-1970 1970-2014
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1.842.41
1.771.79
2.82
1.62
Output per person Output per hour
Source: Robert Gordon, The rise and fall of American growth (adapted by Mark Gordon, Chief Economist, E&Y)
% C
hang
e Pe
r Yea
r
© Nokia 20166
We have continuously created tools to augment our physical abilities…and save time
Thinking time….
X 100 X 1000X 500 X 5000
t
© Nokia 20167
We have created tools to increase discovery by decreasing distance to save time (and waste time?)
Thinking time….
X 10 - X 1000 ?
D t
© Nokia 20168
Need to interface digital & physical realms…to decrease distance and waste, and create time
Thinking time….
© Nokia 20169
Need to augment our mental abilities…to increase knowledge and save time
Thinking time….
© 2016 Nokia10
The coming revolution
Tech. Revolution Enabling Technology ConnectivityFinancial (1600 − 1740) Stocks & Bonds Banking & Stock Market Infrastructure
1st Industrial (1780 − 1840) Steam Engine & Iron Production Rail and Shipping Networks
2nd Industrial (1880 − 1920) Steel & Chemicals Extended Transportation Networks Electricity & Telecom Networks
Scientific-Technical (1940 − 1970) Analog & Digital Signal processing Digital Communications Networks
Information (1985 − 2015) The Web, Cloud computing & Mobile devices Internet & Broadband Access
Automation of Everything (2015 −) Digital interfaces & Data analysis Future X Network
Technological Revolution (def): Interconnection of new systems and technologies
We arehere
+ capacity to profoundly transform economies & society
© 2016 Nokia11
Industrial Revolution
Consumer
Evolution
The new digital eraDigitization, delivery & sharing of:
Digitization, distribution & optimization of:
© 2016 Nokia12
Latency matters … reducing time to save time
0.1 1 10 100
10
100
1000
10000(km)
RTT(ms)
Light propagationElectric grid control
Autonomous vehiclesvRAN
Haptic VR & tele-operationCloud-assisted driving
BW-efficient 360° videoHi-Res cloud gaming
4K video streamingVoIP/video conferencing
Web page load
Vestibulo-ocular reflex
IM chat & bots
High-Frequency trading
Sprint start
0.25
1
2
4
8
7
5 20
10 100
10 40
20 90
120
50 1900
100
150
150
50
1000
4000
ICP
cloud
Core
clo
udEd
geclo
ud
Service latency requirements (in ms)
Max tolerable networking delayMax application delay for processingHuman response times (for reference)
We arehere
© 2016 Nokia13
Latency & bandwidth matter … for new digital experiences that save time
Edge CloudCore Cloud
1ms10ms100ms1s10s 100us 10us1kbps
10kbps
100kbps
1Mbps
10Mbps
100Mbps
1Gbps
10Gbps Cloud RAN
360° video (hi-
res)
Electric grid control
Cloud-assisted driving
Autonomous vehicles
Comms & Chatbots
4k Video streaming
Sensors
Home Sensors
Haptic VR
Remotetraining
360° video (free viewpoint)
Remote control vehiclesHD Video
streaming
360° video (lo-
res)
Band
widt
h
Latency
Video VR/AR
People & Things
SystemControl
Virtual RAN
360° VR/AR
We arehere
14 © Nokia 2016
Perspective on wireless evolution
Source: Bell Labs, adapted from F. Boccardi, T. Marzetta, IEEE Comms. Magazine, 201402
2G-4G: “People &
Video”
Ultra-broadband: “VR/AR”
Ultra-low latency: “System Control”
Forbidden region: “Shannon Limit”
Pre-5GR1
R2
Ultra-narrowband:
“Things”
R3
R4
R5
© 2016 Nokia15
Summary: The 100yr, 100x shift
Enabled by: Local real estate, fiber, trust, optimized HW/SW network platforms , programmability, privacy preserving, & secure
Enabled by: Global reach and power; SW platforms for business model disruption, stability, non-privacy preserving & inadequately secure
We arehere
ComputeTech
IPNetworks
Broadband Access
ComputeTech
IPNetworks
Broadband Access
Core Cloud Edge Cloud
100s ms, 10’s Mbps1 day, $1000, 10B
1ms, 1Gbps10 years, $1, 1000B+
Devices
Things
© 2016 Nokia16
The New Architecture for New Value
ConvergedEdge Cloud2 Software
defined, end-end
Smart Network Fabric
3
Universal Adaptive Core4 Access agnostic
converged coremodular, decomposednetwork functions
Common data layer
Programmable Network OS5 Dynamic
customerservices
Dynamicnetwork optimization
Management &
OrchestrationSDN NFV
Multi-operatorfederation
self-optimizedcoverage & capacity
MassiveScale Access
1
Long fibers
AccessRemote
Shortwaves & wires
Digital Value Platforms7 ANP, CSP, ICP,
Vertical appsExternal data sources
Open APIs
Augmented Cognition Systems6 Machine
learningAnalytics
Humans& Machines
Dynamic Data Security
8• New trust framework• Ecosystem sharing• Mass edge monitoring
© 2016 Nokia17
The Future of All Things and the Creation of Time
Analog Things
Create Time (by decreasing distance
and increasing knowledge
Digital Things
18 © Nokia 2016
The New Value (2): Global-Local Equilibrium
Global ForcesLocal ForcesOptimized Discovery of Digital ContentMassive Brand Power
Generalization
Personal Data Monetization
Economies of Cloud Platform Scale
Optimized Delivery of Digital ContentTrusted Brand RelationshipPersonalization
Personal Privacy Protection
Economies of Secure Network Platform
19 © Nokia 2016