commodity mantra pre-market 081113

8/12/2019 Commodity Mantra Pre-market 081113

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Note:Ideas given under the Commodities section arefor intradaypurpose or up to aperiod of three trading sessions. Recommendations under this heading are notnecessarilypartofourfundamentalbuyorselllist.

Metals Energy

2

PivottableMCXLevels InternationalLevels

Commodity R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2Gold 30,458 30,114 29,920 29,576 29,382 1,339 1,321 1,309 1,291 1,279

Silver 49,689 48,979 48,440 47,730 47,191 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.3 21.0

Aluminum 114 114 113 113 112 1,838 1,831 1,821 1,814 1,804

Copper

456

455

452

451

447

7,203

7,187

7,145

7,129

7,087

Lead 137 135 134 133 132 2,178 2,159 2,145 2,126 2,112

Nickel 898 891 883 876 867 14,248 14,099 14,000 13,851 13,752

Zinc 120 119 119 118 117 1,925 1,903 1,901 1,878 1,876

Crudeoil 6,032 5,978 5,940 5,886 5,848 95.7 94.6 94.2 93.1 92.7

Nat.Gas 231 225 222 216 213 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4

Apivot isa levelatwhichthemarketdirectionchangesfortheday.Thesepointscanbecriticalsupportandresistance levelsforthatday.Pivotlevelsareonlybroadindicatorsandnotnecessarilyourviewonthecommodity.Importantdatatowatch

Date Country/Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous06Nov

EUR GermanFactoryOrdersm/m 16:30 3.3% 0.6% 0.3%

US

CrudeOil

Inventories 20:00 1.6M

1.7M 4.1M

07NovUS UnemploymentClaims 19:00 336K 336K 345K

US AdvanceGDPq/q 19:00 2.8% 2.0% 2.5%

08NovUS NonfarmPayrolls 19:00 126K 148K

US PrelimUoMConsumerSentiment 20:25 74.6 73.2

Preciousmetals Currency

10

20

30

40

50

60

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

Nov12 Feb13 May13 Aug13 Nov13

US$/oz US$/oz

Gold Silver

4244464850525456586062

6466687072

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7


Euro(L) Pound(L) Rupee(R)

Basemetals Energy

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000


US$/tonUS$/ton

Aluminium(L) Zinc(L) Copper(R)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

70

80

90

100

110

120


US$/mmbtu

US$/bbl

Crudeoil Naturalgas


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1

Pre marketCommodity Mantra

November08,2013

Agri-productsMarketCommentary CME Soybeans futures closed higher on the

day. USDA supply/demand report is

scheduledtodaywith average trade estimates

calling forayieldof42.4bushels/acreand total

productionof3.221bnbushels. Harvestedacres

areestimatedat75.928mn,whileendingstocks

are estimated to come in at 172mn

bushels. Total commitments asa%of TotalUS

projected exports are now at 89%, which

compares to the5 yearaverageof60% for this

date.Meanwhile, private exporters reported to

the USDA sales of 250,000MT of soybeans toChina.

Malaysian palm oil futures ended literallyunchanged,as loweroutputfromMalaysianand

Indonesiaprovidedanelementofsupport.Some

market participants are estimating that

production inMalaysia probably fell inOctober

from amonth earlier,while exportswere little

changed and reserves expanded to the highest

levelsince

April.

All

eyes

will

be

focused

on

the

MalaysianPalmOilBoardreport,which issetto

release on Nov. 11. The official numbers will

provide more clarity on the underlying supply

situation.

In Indian markets, mustard seed futureswitnessedintensifiedsellingpressureonaccount

of steady sowing progress of rabi crop in the

current year alongwith higher carryover stocks

in localmandis. As per the latest release from

Ministryof

Agriculture,

the

total

sowing

acreage

ofmustardseedason30thNovember2013has

beenreportedat1.4mnhectares,up110%from

thelastyearinthesameperiod.Thiswasmainly

due to better prices of mustard seed in local

mandis along with timely harvesting of kharif

crop inUttarPradeshandRajasthan.Thestrong

carryoverstocksinlocalmandisalsoaddedsome

sellingpressure inmustardseedmarket.Market

estimates suggest that total carryover stocks of

around18

20

lakh

bags

have

been

reported

in

major producing states, up 45 lakh tons from

thelastyearinthesameperiod.

SpicesCommodity High Low Close %Chg OIChilli(Rs/qntl)NCDEXNov 6,430 6,302 6,400 1.2 2,430

Jeera(Rs/qntl)NCDEXNov 12,523 12,338 12,355 (0.7) 5,667

Dhaniya(Rs/qntl)NCDEXNov 7,010 6,844 6,888 0.5 8,140

NCDEXDec 7,239 7,075 7,130 1.0 19,940

Turmeric(Rs/qntl)NCDEXNov 4,638 4,490 4,586 1.6 7,485

OilSeedsCommodity High Low Close %Chg OISoyabean(Rs/qntl)NCDEXNov 4,020 3,960 3,971 0.1 49,880

NCDEXDec 4,045 3,977 3,985 (0.3) 1,03,080

Soyoil(Rs/10kg)NCDEXNov 761 749 750 (0.9) 48,280

NCDEXDec 754 744 745 (0.7) 1,33,300

CPO(Rs/10kg)MCXNov 571 561 562 (1.1) 2,753

MCXDec 572 565 566 (0.8) 2,646

OthersCommodity

High

Low

Close

%Chg

OI

MenthaOil(Rs/kg)MCXNov 873 848 871 2.7 5,472

MCXDec 885 861 883 2.7 1,835

SpotpricesCommodity Close Pr.Close %ChgPepper(Rs/qntl) 48,033 47,500 1.1

Jeera(Rs/qntl) 13,041 13,041 0.0

Turmeric(Rs/qntl) 4,833 4,850 (0.4)

Soyabean(Rs/qntl) 3,967 3,842 3.3

Soyaoil(Rs/kg) 752 748 0.5

Chana(Rs/qntl)

3,100

3,109

(0.3)

Mustardseed

(Rs/qntl)3,780 3,745 0.9


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2

Agri productsPivottable

Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3Chilli Nov 6,626 6,528 6,498 6,400 6,370 6,272 6,242

JeeraNov 12,558 12,540 12,373 12,355 12,188 12,170 12,003

CorianderNov 7,098 7,054 6,932 6,888 6,766 6,722 6,600

TurmericNov 4,830 4,734 4,682 4,586 4,534 4,438 4,386

Soyabean

Nov

4,041

4,031

3,981

3,971

3,921

3,911

3,861

SoyaoilNov 763 762 751 750 739 739 728

CPONov 573 572 563 562 553 552 543

MenthaOilNov 917 895 893 871 869 847 845

Apivotisalevelatwhichthemarketdirectionchangesfortheday.Thesepointscanbecriticalsupportandresistancelevelsforthatday.Pivotlevelsareonlybroadindicatorsandnotnecessarilyourviewonthecommodity.Chilli Mustardseed

5,500

5,800

6,100

6,400

6,700

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

22Oct 26Oct 30Oct 3Nov 7Nov

OpenInt Price

3,570

3,620

3,670

3,720

3,770

3,820

3,870

3,920

0

10

20

30

40

50


OpenInt Price

Jeera Coriander

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

4,000

5,900

7,800

9,700

11,600


OpenInt Price

6,000

6,300

6,600

6,900

7,200

7,500

1,000

4,000

7,000

10,000

13,000

16,000

19,000

22,000


OpenInt Price

Soyabean Turmeric

3,400

3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115


OpenInt Price

4,300

4,600

4,900

5,200

500

3,500

6,500

9,500

12,500

15,500

18,500


OpenInt Price


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commodity mantra pre-market 081113

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