commodities exchange and risk mitigation: options for raising
TRANSCRIPT
Commodities Exchange and Risk Mitigation: Options for Raising Capital
A presentation by
Mr. Jimnah Mbaru
Chairman, Nairobi Stock ExchangeChairman, Dyer & Blair Investment Bank
17 October 2007
STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION
1. Introduction
2. Structure of Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE)
3. NSE Performance
4. Drivers of NSE
5. Role of Commodities Exchange
6. Options for Raising Capital
7. Conclusion
8. Q&A
STRUCTURE OF THE NAIROBI STOCK EXCHANGE (NSE)
• Established in 1954 as an overseas stock exchange through the London Stock Exchange
• NSE 20-share index established in 1966 & was managed by Dyer and Blair Ltd.
• Regulated by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA), which was established in 1989
• Primary (IPOS) & Secondary (Trading) markets
• Part of the African Securities Exchange Association (ASEA), which aims to: Establish systematic corporation, Enhance sharing of information Development of harmonized market standards.
STRUCTURE OF THE NSE Cont’d
• 74 government bonds• 53 listed companies • 6 corporate bonds• 7 Licensed Investment Banks• 11 Licensed Stockbrokers• Market trading done through:
1954 – 1991: Callover System 1991 – Aug 2006: Open Outcry System Since Sept 2006 : Automated Trading
System
• Shares are traded in lots of 100
NSE Market Performance (A) Equities Primary Market (Kshs Million)
YearAmount
Raised Rights Issue Private SectorPrivatization/
IPO
1992 496.10 - 358.00
1993 62.48 - 62.48
1994 2,600.04 61.90 2,138.14 400.00
1995 124.00 - 102.00 22.00
1996 5,108.00 1,200.00 66.00 3,842.00
1997 1,944.60 1,500.00 276.6 168.00
1998 1,800.00 - 1,800.00
1999 - - -
2000 997.63 619.63 378.00
2001 1,155.00 30.00 1,125.00
2002 331.21 - 331.21
2003 - - -
2004 2,450.00 2,450.00 -
2005 2,011.00 2,011.00 -
2006 15,225.00 776.00 1,319.55 13,129.45
Sept 2007 3,080 800.00 2,280.00
NSE Market Performance B) Equities Secondary Market
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Turnover (Kshs Bn) 3.08 3.33 3.9 6.15 4.58 5.15 3.63 3.09 2.92 15.25 22.3 36.5 95 57.6
Volume (Mn) 43 62 114 144 112 101 142 115 149 381 625 847 1,455 1,139
Market Cap.(Kshs Bn) 137 105.5 98.9 114.3 129 107 101.4 86.1 112 318 306 463 792 739
NSE Index 4,559 3,468 3,114 3,115 2,962 2,303 1,913 1,355 1,363 2,738 2,95 3,97 5,646 5,069
Liquidity (%) 2.76 3.43 3.85 5.73 3.74 5.12 3.71 2.9 3.6 8.52 7.3 7.9 12 13
NSE Index Movement (2000-2007)
NSE Index 2000-2007
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
NSE Performance (C) Bonds Primary/Secondary Market
Bonds Issued/Trades (Kshs Bn)
Primary Secondary
1996 0.86 0.86
1997 38.6 11.5
1998 47.3 8.22
1999 47.4 6.92
2000 25.1 5.88
2001 72.5 14.1
2002 71.2 33.6
2003 76.4 42.0
2004 91.4 34.1
2005 74.4 13.6
2006 76.7 48.6
2007 66.3 68.0
(A) Drivers of NSE: The Economy
Vision 2030 geared towards growth
GDP Growth
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
1s
t Q
tr2
00
7E
xp
ec
ted
Gro
wth
(B) Drivers of NSE: Economic Monetary Cycle
(C) Drivers of NSE - Technology Effects
Market Capitalization and liquidity 1991-2007
0.0000
200.0000
400.0000
600.0000
800.0000
1,000.0000
Year
Capi
taliz
atio
n (K
ES B
illio
n)
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%
% L
iqui
dity
1991- Switch from Callover
Open Outcry
CDS Activation
ATS Set-Up
(D) Drivers of NSE – Low Interest Rates
•Low stable interest rates
•Low cost of funding hence high corporate profitability
Interest Rates 2001 -2007
-2.0004.0006.0008.000
10.00012.00014.00016.00018.000
% In
tere
st
Rate
s
Explanation to the low interest rates
•Deficit financing through privatization
Government Revenue and Deficit 2001-2006
0100200300400500600700800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Ksh
s B
illi
on
Domestic Debt Kshs GOVT REVENUE Deficit
(E) Other Factors influencing NSE Performance
• Increased corporate profitability
• Increased foreign exchange earnings – FDI
• Diaspora remittances estimated at Kshs 75Bn per annum ($1.2Bn)
• Increase in amounts held by institutions e.g. pension funds assets of Kshs 224Bn
• Increase in investment vehicles – unit trusts, mutual funds assets of 20Bn
• Increase in market participants to over 750,000 investors – KENGEN
Role of Commodities Exchange
Facilitates offsetting commodity transactions without impacting on physical goods until the expiry of a contract
• Offers– Price transparency– Effective price discovery– Efficient risk management
• Types– Commodities Futures Exchange– Spot Exchange
• Market players– Producers, processors, warehouses– Buyers, speculators– Government, marketing agencies, banks
Benefits to;
• Farmers– Price discovery
– Warehousing services
– Warehouse receipts as collateral for loans
• Traders– Access to bigger markets
– Elimination of counterparty risks through guarantees
– Better pricing because of high number of participants
• Exporters– Quality products through a secured platform
– Elimination of physical market procurement problems
– Elimination of procurement agents fees
Benefits to;
• End Users– Ability to buy direct at competitive prices– Operational comfort - easy to access information – The exchange I s a single window system for
procurement of various materials
• The Exchange– Fair transparent prices for settlement of contracts– Arbitrage opportunities for investors– Long-term investors can buy physical commodities
stored at warehouses and take advantage of off-season price rises
Challenges for Multiple Commodities Exchange in Kenya (MCE)
• Commodities controlled by Boards - heavily regulated
• Many small-scale producers- challenge on stability of client base
• In an environment of struggling institutions – cooperatives– Inefficiencies and mismanagement– Internal bureaucracies on elective posts and
decision making process
• Conservative approach
• Partial liberalization of some commodities sectors (coffee)
Options for Raising Capital (Players)
• Private Equity/Capital– Private equity fund– Syndicated
• Initial public offer - IPO• Demutualized commodities exchange
– Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE)– Over The Counter (OTC)
• Listing Requirements
• Corporate bonds– Plain vanilla bonds
Options for Raising Capital (Players)
• Securitization– Commodities receipts backed bonds– Fees receivables backed bonds
• Syndicated loans – backed by physical commodities (Coffee
exchange practice)
Role Of Government In Setting Up The Exchange
• One-off grant to start (Kshs 1 billion)
• Reforms in the producer sector
• Exchange income tax exempt until demutualized
• Provide warehousing (Subsidized)
• Plan a regulatory body for commodities
Conclusion
• Possible to raise funds through NSE
• Reforms essential for successful MCE in Kenya
• MCE way forward
• Government cooperation and support essential
THANK YOU
Q & A
10th Floor, Loita House, Loita Street P.O. Box 45396-00100 Nairobi, Kenya
Tel: +254-2-3240000 Fax: +254-20-3240114
Website: www.dyerandblair.com