Sept. 22, 2016

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Kelley Coyner, Senior FellowCenter for Regional Analysis

School of Policy, Government & International AffairsGeorge Mason University

Presentation to:Committee for Dulles

1

2

What’s new?Economic Trends ?Regional Implications?

5.2 % Real median household income

2.4 M More workers

1.2 % Decrease in poverty rate

3.5 M Fewer in poverty

U.S. Census BureauIncome and Poverty in the United States: 2015 Current Population Reports Issued September 2016, P60-256

3

GDP Trends since 2001

4

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

20

01

GD

P*=

10

0

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA

United States

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, *2009 Chained Dollars

New NumbersGDP

5

Courtesy of Washington Business Journal

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2

% C

ha

ng

e in

GD

P*

Quarters After Trough*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Jul 2015 – Jul 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia, 2002-2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002

2005

20

08

(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis9

4

0

9

21

30

86

43

68

73

-5

-7

-10

-12

-10

-8

-49

-34

-23

0

-24

-100 -75 -50 -25 0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total -181 Total 335

Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-May 2016

10

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth-Over-Year(000s)

Jun =+2.5M

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis11

Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002

2005

2008

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

(000s)

Annual Data Annual Month over Year2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

May-16Total: 739.2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

20

00

=10

0

Index of Population and Employment Growth in the Washington Region

Population

Employment

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program;US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Population and employment trends in the Washington Metro Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis13

47,989 47,150 46,096

36,871 43,070 47,495

4,495

(24,741) (27,907) (40,000)

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Net Domestic Migration

Net International Migration

Natural Increase

Source: Census Bureau

Washington Metro AreaPopulation Components of Change

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Long commutes diminish quality of life

5.6%

5.9%

7.4%

8.0%

8.6%

9.0%

10.9%

11.0%

11.0%

11.7%

12.7%

13.5%

14.0%

15.3%

17.3%

20.7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Phoenix

Minneapolis

Detroit

Dallas

United States

Miami

Philadelphia

Houston

Seattle

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

SF-Oakland

Washington

New York

Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes

Source: US Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, Table S0802 15

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA

$399.3KAug 2016

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)(000s)

• Job Growth continues

• Less federal dependency

• Strength in small business development

• Key opportunities • Sci-Tech services• Bio-tech & health services • Higher Education• Advocacy• Tourism• Global

• Attractive to talent

• New transportation investments economic and transportation benefit

• Vulnerable to Federal sequestration, BRAC

• Small firms bought by out-of-area companies and moved

• Diverse education requirements

• Retaining talent challenging• High costs for housing, childcare

• Opportunities elsewhere

• Long Commutes

• Metrorail Unreliable

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What’s Next for the Regional Economy?

Comments?

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