commitment to salmon: using bayesian modeling to create a sustainable fisheries management tool...
TRANSCRIPT
Commitment to salmon: using Bayesian modeling to create a
sustainable fisheries management tool based on commitment of
fishermen
Päivi Haapasaari, Timo P. Karjalainen, Kalle Reinikainen, University of Oulu, Finland; and Catherine Michielsens,
Game and Fisheries Research Institute, Finland
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Game and Fisheries Research Institute
International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission
Salmon Action Plan (SAP) program, aims at
strengthening the salmon stocks of the Baltic Sea
Finland’s goal: to restore the salmon stocks of
Bothnian Bay rivers
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SAP-rivers in Finland
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Success in restoration
presumes commitment
of all the actors,
including fishermen!
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* What is the
role of fishermen
in the restoration
process? ?
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Research project Bireme-SAP
Aimed at opening the
black box of fishermen,
making their activities
and thoughts more
transparent,
and more predictable.
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Our method:
Linking social aspects with biological factors,
through probabilistic Bayesian belief networks
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Commitment
?
? ? ?
Catch
Probabilistic network
”Commitment”
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Commitment
Cultural and historical background of fishermen
Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice
Catch
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Commitment
Cultural and historical background of fishermen
Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice
Catch
Commitment action
Knowledge action
Economic intrest
Salmon
abundance
Management action
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Management actions:
Cheese slicer
Setting quotas
ITQ
Releasing wild salmon
Focusing on obligatory reared salmon
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Knowledge actions:
Letter home
Symposiums
Media
Informing in fishing licenses
Informing via locals
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Commitment actions:
Common meetings
Visits
Round table
Contact persons
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Commitment
Cultural and historical background of fishermen
Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice
Catch
Commitment action
Knowledge action
Economic intrest
Salmon
abundance
Management action
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Some preliminary results:
Belief in SAP…
*Belief in the river conditions of the potential salmon rivers is low among all fishermen
* Belief in wild salmon in catch is low among Kiiminkijoki river mouth fishermen
* Other problems than fishing are considered most actual threats to the potential salmon rivers
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How to increase beliefs?
Knowledge action
Belief in wild SAP-salmon
Belief in river conditions
* professionals > media, fishing licenses
* semi-professionals > media, via locals
* household fishers > via locals
* recreational fishermen > symposiums, licenses
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Some preliminary results:
Trust…
* much distrust between actors
*trust in regulation and research correlates with sense of justice: those who feel being treated unjustly, do not trust regulation and research
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How to increase trust?
Commitment action
Trust in actors
* round table
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Some preliminary results:
Sense of justice…
* professional fishers
* recreational fishermen along the rivers Tornionjoki and Simojoki
…feel being treated unjustly
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How to increase sense of justice?
Management action
Sense of justice
* professional fishermen, semi-professionals
and household fishermen: cheese-slicer
* semi-professionals: focusing on obligatory
reared salmon
* recreational fishers: setting quotas
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Commitment
Cultural and historical background of fishermen
Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice
Catch
Commitment action
Knowledge action
Economic intrest
Salmon
abundance
Management action
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Conclusion: How to get the best result in commitment, according to our modeling?
* Trying to increase commitment by creating a round table working group
* Intensifying the use of media and fishing licenses in informing
* Restricting fishing equally from each group
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Why Bayesian modeling?
* makes it possible to examine the strength of causal relationships, and to evaluate which factors are most important to maintain or create commitment
* the network allows to examine hypothetical situations, and to predict changes in commitment when affecting any of the factors within the network
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Why Bayesian modeling?
* gives us quantitative data to express the strength of fishermen’s commitment and the effect of this on catch
* makes it possible to link the information flow of the social network to the biological network, and via this to deduce the effects of the activities of the fishermen on the salmon stocks
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Function of the model:
A tool of
planning and decision making
in the restoration process and fisheries management in general
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