commercializing with confidence - gwec

DNV GL © 14 October 2020 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL ©

Magnus Ebbesen

14 October 2020

1

Commercializing with confidence

©Equinor

DNV GL © 14 October 2020

Global reach – local competence

150+years

100+countries

100,000+customers

12,000employees

5% R&Dof annual revenue

MARITIME DIGITAL

SOLUTIONS

BUSINESS

ASSURANCE

ENERGYOIL & GAS

Technology & Research

Global Shared Services


Trusted voice to commercialize floating wind with confidence

3

>97%

Played a role in the majority of the world’s offshore wind projects

>80%

Involved in the majority of offshore wind projects as a certification body

9 projects

Involved in nine floatingwind transactions astechnical advisor

150 years

Experience in managing risks of offshore technologies with experience from wind, oil & gas and maritime projects

>100

Global presence in more than 100 countries with floating wind experts in key markets

Leadingposition in developing requirments and standards for floating wind turbines.

>10 years

Active in floating wind since the very beginning

>50%

of pilot floating wind farms are designed according to DNV GL’s standard


Floating wind – a 10 years journey of standard development

4

Hywind Tampen (selected reviews, ongoing)

JIP: Development of

DNV-OS-J103 Design standard

(2011-2013)

JIP: Development of

DNVGL-RP-0286

Coupled analysis

(2016-2019)

2018/2019:

DNVGL-SE-0422 DNVGL-ST-0119 DNVGL-RP-0286

Hywind demo (2008)

Pelastar FEED (2013)

VolturnUS – concept (2014)

aerodyn SCD nezzy – concept (2014)

WindFloat Atlantic (2015- 2018)

Hywind Scotland (2015-2017)

Nautilus – concept (2017)

ACS - concept (2014-2015)

Groix & Belle-Ile wind farmProject Cert. (ongoing)

DNV Guideline(2009) 2012 -

2017

2015 - 2019

FLAGSHIP

2020 - 2023

Selected reference projects


STRATEGY AND

INVESTMENT SUPPORT

R&D AND

JOINT INDUSTRY PROJECTSDIGITAL TOOLS AND

SERVICES

PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

AND OPERATIONTECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Advisory Assurance Advisory Assurance

Core areas to service the floating offshore wind industry


Enablers include:

▪ Larger turbines

▪ Mega-sized projects

▪ Co-locating 3 GW or more projects

▪ More dedicated offshore supply chain

7

Offshore wind will generate almost 9% of electricity globally by 2050


Simply because there are more deeper water areas available for deploying floating wind

Why floating wind?

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Note: Inland dots depict population density of more than 500, 2000 and 8000 people per km2 with darker shades of grey. Source: IEA analysis developed in collaboration with Imperial College London

Shallow water (10 - 60 m) : Near shore (<60 km) Far from shore (60 - 300 km)

Deeper water (60 - 2000 m): Near shore (<60 km) Far from shore (60 - 300 km)

By 2050 we predict that floating offshore wind projects will have 255 GW of installed capacity, more than 20% of the offshore wind market.


Floating wind will generate a fifth of all offshore wind energy by mid-century

9


© Equinor

3,000 HyWind Tampens by 2050


To fully take up the potential, floating wind needs to overcome its major challenges

11

COSTS CONFIDENCE+


Average cost can come down to EUR 40/MWh

12

€40/MWh

in 2050

€65/MWh

in 2030


New risks need to be managed

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Increased risk and

cost

New markets

New technologies

New conditions

New players


Floating wind projects – Specific challenges

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Market

Electrical• High voltage dynamic cable design

• Array cable disconnection/connection

• Cable fatigue• Floating substation

Substructure and station keeping• Local content requirements• Complex substructure fabrication• Floater motions• Mooring failure

Site and energy• Wind measurements• Seabed constraints (e.g. fishing in project area)

Contracts• Multi-contracting and high contractual interfacing risk

• "Weak" contracts

Organization• Inexperienced developers

• Inexperienced suppliers

Planning and marketenvironment• Lack of experience• New markets• Uncertainty of investors, lenders

• Criticality of timeline (public support schemes, grants, tariffs)

Turbine• Turbine controller• Floating motions• Power curve impact • Turbine reliability

O&M• Substructure maintenance

• Major component change-out

Site

Technology

Installation• Onshore crane capabilities

• Turbine mating• Serial installation

ProjectSiteTechnology


Floating wind can leverage experience from bottom fixed wind and oil & gas, but differences need to be assessed

Relevant experience¹

Design and fabrication

WTG (RNA)

Tower

Substructure

Mooring and anchoring

Dynamic cable (array cable)

Floating offshore substation

Dynamic high voltage cable (>66kV)

Export cable

Installation

Mooring and anchoring

Turbine installation/mating

Towing and hook-up

Floating offshore substation

Dynamic cables

Export cables

Operation

Normal WTG maintenance

Heavy WTG maintenance

Substructure maintenance

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¹ Experience from O&G, bottom fixed and floating wind considering volume and similarities

High experience

Medium experience

Low experience

Legend


But risks can be managed

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How do you reduce and manage risk?

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Continue to follow best practice in project development

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Assure relevant

experience in

development

team

Investigate site

with measurement

campaigns

Select “proven”

floater technology

and mature

turbine design

Design according

to respected

industry standards

Choose

experienced

contractors

Have design

(and construction)

certified / verified

Risk

Time

Monitor the initial

performance

Learn from the project

Share experience with the industry

Be prepared for

intervention

Follow-up on

critical path items

(substructure)

Define

interfaces well


Fabrication: Thoroughly assess the foundation fabrication process

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Activty Year 1 Year 2Detailed design Fabrication (Nr 1 )Turbine assembly (Nr 1 )Towing and hookup (Nr 1 )Turbine commissioning (Nr 1)

1) Large part of CAPEX 2) Takes time and on the critical path

3) Some differences from existing experience

• More complex than jacket, monopiles and towers

• More units and has to be less costly than ships and oil & gas

structures

4) Local supply chain requirements in a global market

20

%


Operation: Thoroughly plan for events in the operational phase

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Major component failure

1-2 events per turbine per lifetime

Cable failure

A total of 43 cable failures have been reported

between 2007-2018 ¹

Mooring line failure

~0.2 events per turbine per lifetime with oil &

gas experience. ²

² E. Fontaine, 2014 (OTC 25273)

¹ Offshore Wind Subsea Power Cables Installation, Operation and Market Trends September 2018


Contracts: Thoroughly assess and ideally minimize the contract interfaces

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Anchors

Floating wind Bottom fixed

Turbine

Tower

Floating structure

Mooring

+ installation+ onshore crane

Foundation

Turbine

+ installation


Prototypes and project certification

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Objectives

Scope of Work

▪ Site Conditions

▪ Design Basis

▪ ILA (Independent

Load Analysis)

▪ Design

▪ Manufacturing

▪ Testing

▪ Transportation &

installation

▪ Commissioning

▪ Periodic monitoring

Ensure safety and integrity

Assure documentation is in order and complete

Cover critical technical interfaces

Provide independent

review/analysis

System level review


SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

www.dnvgl.com

The trademarks DNV GL®, DNV®, the Horizon Graphic and Det Norske Veritas®

are the properties of companies in the Det Norske Veritas group. All rights reserved.

Thank youThe future is floating

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Magnus Ebbesen, Business Lead, Floating Wind Advisory

[email protected]

commercializing with confidence - gwec

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