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Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co., LLC • www.actresearch.net

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES State of the Industry

N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles

May & YTD 2015 DataPublished June 17, 2015

“State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles” is published monthly by Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company, LLC (ACT), 4400 Ray Boll Blvd., Columbus, IN 47203. Phone: 812-379-2085, Fax: 812-378-5997, e-mail: [email protected] Copyright 2015 by ACT with all rights reserved. Reproduction, copying, or publication of this report in whole or part is not permitted without prior approval. This document is for internal use only. Questions and subscription requests should be directed to K.W. Vieth, Publisher.

Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators and WSJ Economic Forecast Panel

State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles

June 2015 • Classes 5-8 Vehicles

Contents

Page(s)

Summary Observations .............................................................................................................................. 1 Truck & Bus Market Statistics ................................................................................................................ 2-8

Current Month Year to Date Current Month versus Past Month Current Month versus Same Month One Year Ago Current 3 Months versus Same 3 Months One Year Ago Year to Date versus Year to Date One Year Ago Select Periods, Annualized

Backlog/Diesel Fuel Prices ........................................................................................................................ 9

Build Timing of Units in Backlog Gasoline, Diesel, & Spot Crude Oil Prices

Class 5 and 6-7 Graphs ....................................................................................................................... 10-12

Class 5 Net Orders Class 5 Backlog & BL/BU Ratio Class 5 Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio Classes 6-7 Net Orders Classes 6-7 Backlog & BL/BU Ratio Classes 6-7 Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio

N.A. Truck OEMs’ Classes 5-7 Build Plans ............................................................................................ 13

2015 Actual and Forecast Build by Month & Quarter Total Class 8 Graphs ........................................................................................................................... 14-18

Net Orders Cancellation Rate N.A. Build Net Orders & Build Backlog & BL/BU Ratio Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio Class 8 Backlog Analysis: Build Plan Slots Filled/Unfilled Next 6 Months Retail Sales Total Class 8 Build per Day Comparison Build Plan 3 Months from Actual

N.A. Truck OEMs’ Class 8 Build Plans .................................................................................................... 19

2015 Actual and Forecast Build by Month & Quarter BUILD LOCATION: The geography of a built unit reflects the market for which it is destined, NOT the country in which the actual production takes place. Current N.A. OEM build occurs in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY: NORTH AMERICAN CLASSES 5-8 VEHICLES

June 2015 • Classes 5-8 Vehicles • Page 1

Amid an economy sending mixed signals, the NA Class 8 market performed to expectations in May. Part of the reason for disappointment in the broader economy has its genesis in slowing growth as a result of very tough comparisons. Class 8 net orders are a great case in point. Also as an example, DAT Trendlines dry van spot rates (excluding fuel surcharges) were only 5% above May 2014. On average, rates were 15% stronger y/y for all of 2014. Those who assume the status quo are bound to have their hopes thwarted.

CLASS 8: Despite a lackluster April, Class 8 orders were on the mark in May. Net orders totaled 22,850 units. While focusing on the order intake of the past may bring feelings of euphoria, a glance into near term expectations is sobering and much more instructive. Historical order placement practices suggest orders for the next four months will be 15%-20% below average. Putting a hard number on it, intake is likely to be below 20,000 units, bottoming around 15,000 trucks during the order drought in July and August.

CANCELLATIONS: New orders continue to come from truckers who have genuine reasons to purchase new trucks. As such, cancellations have remained in a very tight band through the course of the past three quarters. Excepting two forays into higher territory in seven of the past nine months, cancellations have remained in a narrow band ranging 1.3% to 1.5% of backlog.

BACKLOG: Backlogs in May slipped for the third month, down 8,523 from April and 20,857 below the February top. The backlog was 50,100 units higher than the May 2014 reading. A declining backlog in light of a sustained per day build rate reduced the backlog/build ratio to 5.6 months. Based on the order guidance above and expected production rates, this logical progression is likely to continue until late Q3 or early Q4.

BL ANALYSIS: This month’s backlog analysis showed that April orders considerably narrowed the count of available build slots for the rest of 2015. Based on ACT’s 338,000 North American build outlook, roughly 47,000 open slots remain open from June to December, as of the end of April. That is down from 63,000 at end of April. As we have previously pointed out, carriers who failed to anticipate and plan for their needs may be hard pressed to get a truck when they need it.

BUILD: OEMs once again increased output to meet customer demand, perpetuating the positive trend that started in December 2014. At 1,432 upd in May, build eclipsed the peak of the post-2009 recovery and expansion cycle, set in December 2011 (1,416 upd). OEM build plans for the remainder of the year show no sign of letting up.

SALES & INVENTORY: Class 8 retail sales rose on an actual basis in May to 26,697 units and a virtually indistinguishable seasonally adjusted 26,689 units. In the case of the seasonal result, May’s retail sales volume was tied for the second best in two years. Through YTD May, sales have occurred at a 327,400 unit SAAR, which bodes well for the forecast since the strongest sales months of the year are yet to come.

Build above the level of sales added over 1,600 units to Class 8 inventories, which rose for the eighteenth consecutive month to 67,108 units in May. Despite the bigger inventory, a stronger per day sales rate and one less sales day during the month allowed the IN/RS ratio to fall 3 days to 53 days/2.5 months at the end of May.

CLASSES 5, 6-7: In May, Classes 5-7 net orders bucked historical seasonal expectations, which called for moderate slowing. A total of 19,850 orders were placed during May. The intake resulted in a nearly 11% sequential gain, but more importantly, it was 22% higher than May 2014. Through the first five months of 2015, customers have demanded about 5% more vehicles relative to the same period a year ago. On a SAAR basis, orders are flowing in at a little over a 230,000 unit pace, very much in line with expectations.

Also on the competitive landscape front, General Motors announced its return to the commercial vehicle market. They will partner with Isuzu in a joint venture reminiscent of the long-standing relationship which ended in 2008 amid GM’s need to generate cash to support its automotive business. For now, they will participate in the Class 3-5 market. No mention has been made of reviving the Classes 6-7 product line at this point.

BACKLOG & BUILD: May saw a bit of a slowdown in production, which can be attributed, at least in part, to the discontinuation of Blue Diamond build. Ford and Navistar have officially ended their joint venture and Ford is moving the manufacturing operation from Mexico to Ohio. At 963 upd, 20 days generated build of 19,257 units during the month. Combining softer build and orders yielded a Classes 5-7 backlog of 56,469 units. Thanks to the progress the segment has been making, that volume represents an 11% y/y gain in unbuilt orders. Coupling the smaller backlog with May’s above trend per day build rate, the BL/BU ratio rose to 2.8 months.

INVENTORY & RETAIL SALES: Rounding out the list of metrics that reversed April’s slowing, Classes 5-7 retail sales posted a 5% m/m gain to 18,100 units in May. Higher build than sales added about 1,400 units to inventory, bringing the count to 49,153 units and pegging the IN/RS ratio at 2.7 months, near the bottom of the desired 2.5 to 3.5 month target range.

CURRENT MONTH STATISTICS

Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK

VARIABLE TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL

. Backlog 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 . Build 6,871 30 258 177 7,336 6,913 3,326 1,160 522 11,921 14,531 7,279 64 6,257 512 28,643 . Inventory 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 . New Orders 7,795 32 260 700 8,787 6,212 3,527 1,245 1,045 12,029 11,567 6,141 69 4,535 538 22,850 . Orders Cancel 321 2 - - 323 411 201 30 1 643 1,156 571 15 549 26 2,317 . Net Orders 7,474 30 260 700 8,464 5,801 3,326 1,215 1,044 11,386 10,411 5,570 54 3,986 512 20,533 . Retail Sales 6,665 38 209 265 7,177 6,450 2,860 1,038 575 10,923 13,612 6,784 102 5,687 512 26,697

MEMO: Sales of Japanese Imports 728 676

MONTHLY PERFORMANCE: May 20 Build Days

21 Order/Sales Days . Build: units/day 344 2 13 9 367 346 166 58 26 596 727 364 3 313 26 1,432 . Net Orders: un/dy. 356 1 12 33 403 276 158 58 50 542 496 265 3 190 24 978 . Retail Sales:un/dy. 317 2 10 13 342 307 136 49 27 520 648 323 5 271 24 1,271 . Orders Cancel: % BL 2.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.3% 3.6% 1.9% 4.7% 1.4% . Backlog/Build @ rate in months** 2.0 2.1 1.8 7.8 2.1 3.6 3.1 1.3 3.2 3.2 6.2 5.7 6.3 4.4 1.0 5.6 . Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** 2.2 8.5 1.6 0.9 2.2 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.5 3.1 2.1 2.0 8.2 4.3 0.3 2.5

*Actual data not seasonally adjusted. ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 21 days.

Class 8 Other includes Autocar, Oshkosh, and Terex Advance Mixer.

NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of classes 5-8 vehicle statistics is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source.

May 2015NORTH AMERICA

TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS*


YEAR-TO-DATE STATISTICS


VARIABLE TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL

. Backlog 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 . Build 30,399 157 1,230 575 32,361 43,025 14,403 5,862 1,735 65,025 68,363 34,845 685 31,281 1,890 137,064 . Inventory 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 . New Orders 32,486 166 1,181 1,796 35,629 38,613 18,639 5,775 3,079 66,106 75,296 38,754 555 31,777 1,986 148,368 . Orders Cancel 1,397 10 - - 1,407 3,017 1,117 166 1 4,301 7,656 3,196 227 2,470 94 13,643 . Net Orders 31,089 156 1,181 1,796 34,222 35,596 17,522 5,609 3,078 61,805 67,640 35,558 328 29,307 1,892 134,725 . Retail Sales 28,857 205 1,104 788 30,954 35,373 12,629 5,628 1,644 55,274 60,254 32,614 657 26,699 1,890 122,114

MEMO: Sales of Japanese Imports 3,340 4,058

YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE: May 102 Build Days

106 Order/Sales Days . Build: units/day 298 2 12 6 317 422 141 57 17 638 670 342 7 307 19 1,344 . Net Orders: un/dy. 293 1 11 17 323 336 165 53 29 583 638 335 3 276 18 1,271 . Retail Sales:un/dy. 272 2 10 7 292 334 119 53 16 521 568 308 6 252 18 1,152 . Orders Cancel: % BL 9.8% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 11.6% 10.4% 10.8% 0.1% 10.7% 8.0% 7.3% 54.0% 8.6% 17.1% 8.1% . Backlog/Build @ rate in months** 2.3 2.1 1.9 12.2 2.4 2.9 3.6 1.3 5.0 3.0 6.8 6.1 3.0 4.5 1.4 6.0 . Inventory/R.S. @ rate in months** 2.5 7.6 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 2.7 0.5 0.8 2.9 2.3 2.0 6.2 4.4 0.4 2.7

*Actual data not seasonally adjusted. ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 21 days.

Class 8 Other includes Autocar, Oshkosh, and Terex Advance Mixer.

NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of classes 5-8 vehicle statistics is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source.




UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT MONTH VS. PAST MONTH


TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL

BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 b.PAST MO. 13,662 67 484 925 15,138 27,365 10,763 1,477 1,258 40,863 99,442 45,567 420 31,238 550 177,217 UNIT CHANGE a-b 604 - 2 523 1,129 (1,258) 11 55 521 (671) (4,318) (1,808) - (2,397) - (8,523) % CHANGE 4.4% 0.0% 0.4% 56.5% 7.5% -4.6% 0.1% 3.7% 41.4% -1.6% -4.3% -4.0% 0.0% -7.7% 0.0% -4.8% BUILD: a.CURRENT MO. 6,871 30 258 177 7,336 6,913 3,326 1,160 522 11,921 14,531 7,279 64 6,257 512 28,643 b.PAST MO. 6,832 30 244 138 7,244 8,723 3,263 1,163 538 13,687 14,567 7,027 82 7,017 408 29,101 UNIT CHANGE a-b 39 - 14 39 92 (1,810) 63 (3) (16) (1,766) (36) 252 (18) (760) 104 (458) % CHANGE 0.6% 0.0% 5.7% 28.3% 1.3% -20.7% 1.9% -0.3% -3.0% -12.9% -0.2% 3.6% -22.0% -10.8% 25.5% -1.6% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 b.PAST MO. 14,529 325 289 331 15,474 25,063 6,461 546 239 32,309 27,547 13,067 875 23,805 175 65,469 UNIT CHANGE a-b 256 (3) 49 (84) 218 414 621 90 27 1,152 839 327 (38) 511 - 1,639 % CHANGE 1.8% -0.9% 17.0% -25.4% 1.4% 1.7% 9.6% 16.5% 11.3% 3.6% 3.0% 2.5% -4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.5% NET ORDERS: a.CURRENT MO. 7,474 30 260 700 8,464 5,801 3,326 1,215 1,044 11,386 10,411 5,570 54 3,986 512 20,533 b.PAST MO. 6,858 30 205 179 7,272 5,396 4,065 1,048 102 10,611 12,148 5,256 95 4,550 409 22,458 UNIT CHANGE a-b 616 - 55 521 1,192 405 (739) 167 942 775 (1,737) 314 (41) (564) 103 (1,925) % CHANGE 9.0% 0.0% 26.8% 291.1% 16.4% 7.5% -18.2% 15.9% 923.5% 7.3% -14.3% 6.0% -43.2% -12.4% 25.2% -8.6% CANCELLATION RATE: a.CURRENT MO. 4.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 6.6% 5.7% 2.4% 0.1% 5.3% 10.0% 9.3% 21.7% 12.1% 4.8% 10.1% b.PAST MO. 4.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 10.3% 8.1% 3.2% 0.0% 8.7% 11.2% 11.2% 10.4% 7.4% 4.7% 10.4% PP CHANGE 0.1 - - - (0.1) (3.7) (2.4) (0.8) 0.1 (3.3) (1.2) (1.9) 11.4 4.7 0.2 (0.2) RETAIL SALES: a.CURRENT MO. 6,665 38 209 265 7,177 6,450 2,860 1,038 575 10,923 13,612 6,784 102 5,687 512 26,697 b.PAST MO. 6,236 43 216 193 6,688 7,052 2,624 1,147 500 11,323 12,947 6,276 144 5,919 408 25,694 UNIT CHANGE a-b 429 (5) (7) 72 489 (602) 236 (109) 75 (400) 665 508 (42) (232) 104 1,003 % CHANGE 6.9% -11.6% -3.2% 37.3% 7.3% -8.5% 9.0% -9.5% 15.0% -3.5% 5.1% 8.1% -29.2% -3.9% 25.5% 3.9%

*Actual data not seasonally adjusted.

May 2015

NORTH AMERICATRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS*


UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT MONTH VS. SAME MONTH ONE YEAR AGO Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8

STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCKTRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL

BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 13,165 211 981 1,423 15,780 22,790 9,183 2,055 979 35,007 68,311 29,166 816 19,796 550 118,639 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,101 (144) (495) 25 487 3,317 1,591 (523) 800 5,185 26,813 14,593 (396) 9,045 - 50,055 % CHANGE 8.4% -68.2% -50.5% 1.8% 3.1% 14.6% 17.3% -25.5% 81.7% 14.8% 39.3% 50.0% -48.5% 45.7% 0.0% 42.2% BUILD: a.CURRENT MO. 6,871 30 258 177 7,336 6,913 3,326 1,160 522 11,921 14,531 7,279 64 6,257 512 28,643 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 5,749 65 159 294 6,267 7,946 3,244 910 479 12,579 12,334 6,641 213 5,514 402 25,104 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,122 (35) 99 (117) 1,069 (1,033) 82 250 43 (658) 2,197 638 (149) 743 110 3,539 % CHANGE 19.5% -53.8% 62.3% -39.8% 17.1% -13.0% 2.5% 27.5% 9.0% -5.2% 17.8% 9.6% -70.0% 13.5% 27.4% 14.1% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 14,115 528 224 226 15,093 20,422 6,826 423 226 27,897 20,037 9,921 714 20,144 175 50,991 UNIT CHANGE a-b 670 (206) 114 21 599 5,055 256 213 40 5,564 8,349 3,473 123 4,172 - 16,117 % CHANGE 4.7% -39.0% 50.9% 9.3% 4.0% 24.8% 3.8% 50.4% 17.7% 19.9% 41.7% 35.0% 17.2% 20.7% 0.0% 31.6% NET ORDERS: a.CURRENT MO. 7,474 30 260 700 8,464 5,801 3,326 1,215 1,044 11,386 10,411 5,570 54 3,986 512 20,533 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 5,147 101 150 67 5,465 6,488 3,372 920 20 10,800 12,250 7,035 187 6,241 402 26,115 UNIT CHANGE a-b 2,327 (71) 110 633 2,999 (687) (46) 295 1,024 586 (1,839) (1,465) (133) (2,255) 110 (5,582) % CHANGE 45.2% -70.3% 73.3% 944.8% 54.9% -10.6% -1.4% 32.1% 5120.0% 5.4% -15.0% -20.8% -71.1% -36.1% 27.4% -21.4% CANCELLATION RATE: a.CURRENT MO. 4.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 6.6% 5.7% 2.4% 0.1% 5.3% 10.0% 9.3% 21.7% 12.1% 4.8% 10.1% b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 4.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 7.5% 8.8% 3.2% 0.0% 7.5% 8.5% 3.7% 18.7% 3.2% 4.5% 6.0% PP CHANGE (0.4) 4.3 - - (0.6) (0.9) (3.1) (0.7) 0.1 (2.2) 1.5 5.6 3.0 8.9 0.3 4.1 RETAIL SALES: a.CURRENT MO. 6,665 38 209 265 7,177 6,450 2,860 1,038 575 10,923 13,612 6,784 102 5,687 512 26,697 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 5,562 56 438 430 6,486 6,335 2,772 1,444 378 10,929 11,008 6,656 159 5,522 402 23,747 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,103 (18) (229) (165) 691 115 88 (406) 197 (6) 2,604 128 (57) 165 110 2,950 % CHANGE 19.8% -32.1% -52.3% -38.4% 10.7% 1.8% 3.2% -28.1% 52.1% -0.1% 23.7% 1.9% -35.8% 3.0% 27.4% 12.4%


May 2015



UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT 3 MONTHS VS. SAME 3 MONTHS ONE YEAR AGO Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8


BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 13,165 211 981 1,423 15,780 22,790 9,183 2,055 979 35,007 68,311 29,166 816 19,796 550 118,639 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,101 (144) (495) 25 487 3,317 1,591 (523) 800 5,185 26,813 14,593 (396) 9,045 - 50,055 % CHANGE 8.4% -68.2% -50.5% 1.8% 3.1% 14.6% 17.3% -25.5% 81.7% 14.8% 39.3% 50.0% -48.5% 45.7% 0.0% 42.2% BUILD: a.CURRENT 3 MO. 21,049 90 763 470 22,372 25,412 9,543 3,621 1,458 40,034 43,430 22,000 278 20,206 1,285 87,199 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 18,292 203 1,101 637 20,233 25,066 9,257 3,672 1,551 39,546 33,970 19,371 554 17,332 1,168 72,395 UNIT CHANGE a-b 2,757 (113) (338) (167) 2,139 346 286 (51) (93) 488 9,460 2,629 (276) 2,874 117 14,804 % CHANGE 15.1% -55.7% -30.7% -26.2% 10.6% 1.4% 3.1% -1.4% -6.0% 1.2% 27.8% 13.6% -49.8% 16.6% 10.0% 20.4% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 14,115 528 224 226 15,093 20,422 6,826 423 226 27,897 20,037 9,921 714 20,144 175 50,991 UNIT CHANGE a-b 670 (206) 114 21 599 5,055 256 213 40 5,564 8,349 3,473 123 4,172 - 16,117 % CHANGE 4.7% -39.0% 50.9% 9.3% 4.0% 24.8% 3.8% 50.4% 17.7% 19.9% 41.7% 35.0% 17.2% 20.7% 0.0% 31.6% NET ORDERS: a.CURRENT 3 MO. 22,060 90 721 1,651 24,522 16,995 12,139 3,383 1,563 34,080 35,481 16,486 49 14,981 1,287 68,284 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 18,437 220 1,370 261 20,288 21,796 10,561 3,506 229 36,092 37,193 20,704 734 18,634 1,168 78,433 UNIT CHANGE a-b 3,623 (130) (649) 1,390 4,234 (4,801) 1,578 (123) 1,334 (2,012) (1,712) (4,218) (685) (3,653) 119 (10,149) % CHANGE 19.7% -59.1% -47.4% 532.6% 20.9% -22.0% 14.9% -3.5% 582.5% -5.6% -4.6% -20.4% -93.3% -19.6% 10.2% -12.9% CANCELLATION RATE: a.CURRENT 3 MO. 4.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 9.9% 5.7% 2.7% 0.1% 7.3% 11.0% 8.1% 80.1% 9.8% 4.7% 10.2% b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.2% 6.2% 8.2% 2.4% 0.0% 6.4% 7.7% 4.4% 7.0% 3.8% 4.8% 5.9% PP CHANGE (0.4) 3.2 - (5.4) (0.5) 3.7 (2.5) 0.3 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.7 73.1 6.0 (0.1) 4.3 RETAIL SALES: a.CURRENT 3 MO. 19,623 125 623 625 20,996 21,804 8,343 3,382 1,335 34,864 39,583 19,575 367 17,620 1,285 78,430 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 17,987 193 1,639 728 20,547 20,813 7,819 4,693 1,519 34,844 32,232 18,885 449 15,904 1,168 68,638 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,636 (68) (1,016) (103) 449 991 524 (1,311) (184) 20 7,351 690 (82) 1,716 117 9,792 % CHANGE 9.1% -35.2% -62.0% -14.1% 2.2% 4.8% 6.7% -27.9% -12.1% 0.1% 22.8% 3.7% -18.3% 10.8% 10.0% 14.3%


May 2015



UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: YEAR-TO-DATE VS. YEAR-TO-DATE ONE YEAR AGO Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8


BACKLOG: a.CURRENT MO. 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 13,165 211 981 1,423 15,780 22,790 9,183 2,055 979 35,007 68,311 29,166 816 19,796 550 118,639 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,101 (144) (495) 25 487 3,317 1,591 (523) 800 5,185 26,813 14,593 (396) 9,045 - 50,055

% CHANGE 8.4% -68.2% -50.5% 1.8% 3.1% 14.6% 17.3% -25.5% 81.7% 14.8% 39.3% 50.0% -48.5% 45.7% 0.0% 42.2% BUILD: a.CURRENT YTD 30,399 157 1,230 575 32,361 43,025 14,403 5,862 1,735 65,025 68,363 34,845 685 31,281 1,890 137,064 b.PAST YTD 27,878 329 1,789 1,046 31,042 38,726 14,227 5,598 2,142 60,693 53,092 31,839 945 27,816 1,729 115,421 UNIT CHANGE a-b 2,521 (172) (559) (471) 1,319 4,299 176 264 (407) 4,332 15,271 3,006 (260) 3,465 161 21,643

% CHANGE 9.0% -52.3% -31.2% -45.0% 4.2% 11.1% 1.2% 4.7% -19.0% 7.1% 28.8% 9.4% -27.5% 12.5% 9.3% 18.8% INVENTORY: a.CURRENT MO. 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 14,115 528 224 226 15,093 20,422 6,826 423 226 27,897 20,037 9,921 714 20,144 175 50,991 UNIT CHANGE a-b 670 (206) 114 21 599 5,055 256 213 40 5,564 8,349 3,473 123 4,172 - 16,117

% CHANGE 4.7% -39.0% 50.9% 9.3% 4.0% 24.8% 3.8% 50.4% 17.7% 19.9% 41.7% 35.0% 17.2% 20.7% 0.0% 31.6% NET ORDERS: a.CURRENT YTD 31,089 156 1,181 1,796 34,222 35,596 17,522 5,609 3,078 61,805 67,640 35,558 328 29,307 1,892 134,725 b.PAST YTD 27,357 335 2,220 1,776 31,688 38,088 14,579 5,850 1,519 60,036 70,344 37,091 1,124 31,953 1,730 142,242 UNIT CHANGE a-b 3,732 (179) (1,039) 20 2,534 (2,492) 2,943 (241) 1,559 1,769 (2,704) (1,533) (796) (2,646) 162 (7,517)

% CHANGE 13.6% -53.4% -46.8% 1.1% 8.0% -6.5% 20.2% -4.1% 102.6% 2.9% -3.8% -4.1% -70.8% -8.3% 9.4% -5.3% CANCELLATION RATE: a.CURRENT YTD 4.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 7.8% 6.0% 2.9% 0.0% 6.5% 10.2% 8.2% 40.9% 7.8% 4.7% 9.2% b.PAST YTD 5.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.8% 4.7% 5.4% 8.7% 2.2% 0.0% 5.8% 6.9% 4.5% 5.0% 3.9% 4.8% 5.6% PP CHANGE (1.1) 2.8 - (0.8) (0.8) 2.5 (2.7) 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.7 35.9 3.9 (0.1) 3.6 RETAIL SALES: a.CURRENT 3 MO. 28,857 205 1,104 788 30,954 35,373 12,629 5,628 1,644 55,274 60,254 32,614 657 26,699 1,890 122,114 b.SAME 1 YR. AGO 26,428 339 2,085 1,158 30,010 33,054 11,969 6,514 2,038 53,575 48,222 30,216 732 24,336 1,729 105,235 UNIT CHANGE a-b 2,429 (134) (981) (370) 944 2,319 660 (886) (394) 1,699 12,032 2,398 (75) 2,363 161 16,879 % CHANGE 9.2% -39.5% -47.1% -32.0% 3.1% 7.0% 5.5% -13.6% -19.3% 3.2% 25.0% 7.9% -10.2% 9.7% 9.3% 16.0%


May 2015



SELECT PERIODS: ANNUALIZED Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 5 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8


BACKLOG**:. CURRENT MO. 14,266 67 486 1,448 16,267 26,107 10,774 1,532 1,779 40,192 95,124 43,759 420 28,841 550 168,694 . 3 MO AGO 13,247 66 529 269 14,111 33,661 8,471 1,788 1,676 45,596 104,527 49,520 652 34,302 550 189,551 . 6 MO AGO 13,690 69 540 381 14,680 26,187 7,921 1,535 581 36,224 85,523 37,482 954 26,424 550 150,933 . 12 MO AGO 13,165 211 981 1,423 15,780 22,790 9,183 2,055 979 35,007 68,311 29,166 816 19,796 550 118,639 BUILD:. CURRENT MO. 82,452 360 3,096 2,124 88,032 82,956 39,912 13,920 6,264 143,052 174,372 87,348 768 75,084 6,144 343,716 . PAST 3 MO. 84,196 360 3,052 1,880 89,488 101,648 38,172 14,484 5,832 160,136 173,720 88,000 1,112 80,824 5,140 348,796 . PAST 6 MO. 73,842 378 3,008 1,714 78,942 101,794 33,680 14,188 3,944 153,606 155,234 83,282 1,718 73,594 4,276 318,104 . PAST 12 MO. 72,857 531 3,067 3,042 79,497 98,336 35,596 13,868 4,035 151,835 157,015 81,960 2,079 73,511 4,175 318,740 INVENTORY**:. CURRENT MO. 14,785 322 338 247 15,692 25,477 7,082 636 266 33,461 28,386 13,394 837 24,316 175 67,108 . 3 MO AGO 13,188 351 198 392 14,129 23,182 5,793 377 137 29,489 23,976 11,026 931 21,702 175 57,810 . 6 MO AGO 14,015 383 260 383 15,041 22,452 5,207 491 167 28,317 24,256 12,087 872 21,000 175 58,390 . 12 MO AGO 14,115 528 224 226 15,093 20,422 6,826 423 226 27,897 20,037 9,921 714 20,144 175 50,991 NET ORDERS:. CURRENT MO. 89,688 360 3,120 8,400 101,568 69,612 39,912 14,580 12,528 136,632 124,932 66,840 648 47,832 6,144 246,396 . PAST 3 MO. 88,240 360 2,884 6,604 98,088 67,980 48,556 13,532 6,252 136,320 141,924 65,944 196 59,924 5,148 273,136 . PAST 6 MO. 74,992 372 2,902 3,852 82,118 95,344 40,088 13,932 6,224 155,588 177,698 96,488 654 78,404 4,280 357,524 . PAST 12 MO. 73,955 373 2,573 3,081 79,982 91,748 37,527 13,365 4,795 147,435 188,680 95,495 1,794 82,504 4,177 372,650 CANCELLATION RATE:. CURRENT MO. 4.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 6.6% 5.7% 2.4% 0.1% 5.3% 10.0% 9.3% 21.7% 12.1% 4.8% 10.1%. PAST 3 MO. 4.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 9.9% 5.7% 2.7% 0.1% 7.3% 11.0% 8.1% 80.1% 9.8% 4.7% 10.2%. PAST 6 MO. 4.4% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 7.4% 5.6% 2.7% 0.0% 6.3% 9.0% 6.7% 54.8% 7.2% 4.8% 8.1%. PAST 12 MO. 4.3% 7.4% 0.0% 2.2% 4.1% 7.4% 5.2% 2.7% 0.2% 6.2% 8.1% 6.7% 20.0% 6.2% 4.8% 7.3%

RETAIL SALES:. CURRENT MO. 79,980 456 2,508 3,180 86,124 77,400 34,320 12,456 6,900 131,076 163,344 81,408 1,224 68,244 6,144 320,364 . PAST 3 MO. 78,492 500 2,492 2,500 83,984 87,216 33,372 13,528 5,340 139,456 158,332 78,300 1,468 70,480 5,140 313,720 . PAST 6 MO. 72,602 504 2,852 2,034 77,992 86,840 30,418 13,716 3,766 134,740 148,408 80,410 1,802 67,140 4,276 302,036 . PAST 12 MO. 72,529 749 2,953 3,063 79,294 82,408 35,724 13,497 4,044 135,673 149,448 78,496 1,940 68,992 4,175 303,051

*Actual data not seasonally adjusted. ** Since BACKLOG and INVENTORY are non-additive, 3, 6, and 12 month data points are actuals.





Build Timing of Units in Backlog as of May 2015

2015 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16CLASS 8 YTD Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Beyond TOTAL

BACKLOG DISTRIBUTION 21,339 72,811 61,667 8,128 4,749 168,694 . Mix by scheduled build date 12.6% 43.2% 36.6% 4.8% 2.8% Actual/OEM BUILD PLAN (pp 19) 137,064 30,582 88,753 83,902 -- -- . Open build slots 9,243 15,942 22,235 -- -- . % Open 30.2% 18.0% 26.5% -- --

While 30% of Q2 build slots remain open, only 18% of Q3 and 27% of Q4 are unbooked. In May 2014, unfilled build slots were 31%, 21% and 58%, respectively, for the last 3 quarters of the year.

Diesel Fuel & Crude Oil Prices2010-2015 (Week 24)

Source: EIA, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201530

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140WTIC: $/Bbl.

1.60

1.90

2.20

2.50

2.80

3.10

3.40

3.70

4.00

4.30

4.60

4.90Diesel: $/Gal.

Diesel BRENT

Diesel fuel prices, as well as Brent’s crude oil prices, continue to trend upward, but remain low.

Diesel has been less volatile than crude prices, down and up.


TOTAL CLASS 5: N.A. NET ORDERSJanuary '10 - May '15

ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2015

10 11 12 13 14 151

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10Units (000s)

Actual & 6 Mo. Avg.

Class 5 net orders, at 8,464 units in May, were 1,200 units higher than April and nearly 3,000 units

above the same period in 2014.

TOTAL CLASS 5: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIOJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

5

10

15

20

-5

Units (000s)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10BL/BU Ratio (Months)

BACKLOG

BL/BU RATIO(Right Axis)

With May build and backlog rates both higher than April, the BL/BU ratio was unchanged at 2.1 months.


TOTAL CLASS 5: N.A. INVENTORY/RETAIL SALES RATIOJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

5

10

15

20

-5

-10

Units (000s)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12IN/RS Ratio (Months)

INVENTORY

RETAIL SALES

IN/RS RATIO(Right Axis)

Stronger retail sales coupled with slightly higher inventory led to a downward oscillation in the IN/RS

ratio, which fell to 2.2 months in May from April’s 2.4 months level.

TOTAL CLASSES 6-7: N.A. NET ORDERSJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 150

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Units (000s)

Actual & 6 Mo. Avg.

Classes 6-7 net orders reversed direction in May, gaining nearly 800 units and following two

consecutive months of reductions. This was nearly 600 units higher than the same period in 2014.


TOTAL CL. 6-7: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIOJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 155

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Units (000s)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10BL/BU Ratio (Months)

BACKLOG


With drops in both build and backlog, the Classes 6-7 BL/BU ratio rose slightly

to 3.2 months, from April’s 3.1 months level.

TOTAL CLASSES 6-7:N.A. INVENTORY/RETAIL SALES RATIO

January '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

10

20

30

40

-10

-20

-30

Units (000s)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


INVENTORY

RETAILSALES

IN/RS RATIO (Right Axis)

May’s IN/RS ratio also saw an uptick, reaching 3.1 months from April’s 3.0 months standing, amid

softer retail sales and growing inventory levels. This is the ratio’s highest reading in years.

JAN FEB MAR QI APR MAY JUN QII JUL* AUG* SEP QIII OCT NOV DEC QIV YEARCLASSES 5-7 BUILD: A A A A A A F F F F F F F F F F F

TRUCK 13,839 13,506 17,675 45,020 16,231 14,483 16,232 46,946 15,142 15,537 15,504 46,183 16,781 14,096 13,304 44,181 182,330

SCHOOL/URBAN BUS 2,716 2,211 2,984 7,911 3,293 3,356 3,014 9,663 2,890 2,837 2,877 8,604 3,014 2,603 2,506 8,123 34,301

RECREATIONAL VEHICLE 1,446 1,262 1,559 4,267 1,407 1,418 1,590 4,415 1,490 1,565 1,545 4,600 1,590 1,425 1,380 4,395 17,677

TOTAL CLASSES 5-7 18,001 16,979 22,218 57,198 20,931 19,257 20,836 61,024 19,522 19,939 19,926 59,387 21,385 18,124 17,190 56,699 234,308

Days 20 19 22 61 21 20 22 63 20 21 21 62 22 19 18 59 245 Units per day 900 894 1,010 938 997 963 947 969 976 949 949 958 972 954 955 961 956

PREVIOUS BUILD PLANS: TOTAL CLASS 5-7: MONTHS FROM ACTUAL 7 MONTHS - - 19,046 52,853 - - - - - - - - - - 17,190 56,699 234,308 6 - 16,497 19,648 54,950 18,954 18,400 20,560 59,327 19,510 19,735 19,952 58,993 21,030 18,124 - - - 5 17,310 17,182 19,780 55,326 19,206 18,840 20,764 59,813 19,226 19,725 19,869 59,084 21,385 - - - - 4 18,120 17,306 20,044 57,181 19,927 19,140 21,178 60,469 19,316 19,995 19,926 59,387 - - - - - 3 18,240 17,857 20,758 58,590 19,909 19,190 21,178 60,469 19,220 19,939 - - - - - - - 2 19,280 18,272 20,987 57,295 20,101 19,190 20,766 60,777 19,522 - - - - - - - - 1 19,560 18,307 20,584 55,564 20,101 19,080 20,836 61,024 - - - - - - - - - ACTUAL 18,001 16,979 22,218 57,198 20,931 19,257 - - - - - - - - - - -

NOTE: A = actual build; F = forecast build plans. Data is not seasonally adjusted. "Most likely" adjustments are made by the editor.* Reflects factory shutdowns where applicable

N.A. BUILDQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YEAR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YEAR

CLASSES 5-7 TRUCKS 33,830 40,561 39,191 39,227 152,809 38,516 45,184 43,864 44,764 172,328 CL. 5-7 SCHOOL/URBAN BUS 7,576 9,511 8,543 7,922 33,552 8,125 9,722 9,679 8,597 36,123

CLASSES 5-7 RV (est.) 3,494 3,830 3,570 4,144 15,038 4,187 4,615 4,238 4,190 17,230

TOTAL CLASSES 5-7 44,900 53,902 51,304 51,293 201,399 50,828 59,521 57,781 57,551 225,681

BUILD DAYS 61 63 61 58 243 62 63 59 59 243 BUILD PER DAY 736 856 841 884 829 820 945 979 975 929

2013 2014

MAY 2015SIX MONTH FORECASTS AND ACTUAL BUILD BY MONTH & QUARTER

NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OEMs' CLASSES 5-7 TRUCK AND SCHOOL/URBAN BUS BUILD PLANS: 2015

June 2015 • U.S. Trailers • Page 13


TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. NET ORDERSJanuary '10 - May '15 (Not SA)


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

-10

-20

Units (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70Mexico/Export % Share

Mexico & Export Share (Right Axis)

Exports

Mexico

Actual & 6 Mo. Avg.

As expected, Class 8 net orders extended their cool down period in May. Directionally, orders should

continue to slow in Q2 and Q3 before strength resumes in Q4.

10 11 12 13 14 150

1

2

3

4

5%

TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. CANCELLATION RATEExpressed as a percentage of Backlog



Actual & 6 Mo. Avg.

Despite over 2,300 cancellations in May, there is no cause for concern: Higher backlogs beget higher

cancellations. The cancellation rate, at 1.4% of backlog, remains tame.


TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. BUILD January '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-5

-10

Units (000s)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

-25

-50

Y/Y % Change

Y/Y% Chg.(right axis)

Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

May’s build, at 28,643 units and 1,432 upd, was down 460 units from April, but approximately 3,500

units above May 2014.

10 11 12 13 14 155

10

15

20

25

30

35Units (000s)

TOTAL CLASS 8 NA: NET ORDERS (Trailing 12 Months) & BUILD



NET ORDERS:Trailing

12-month average

BUILD:Actual

Although they have yet to realign, the paths of build and the 12-month net order trend were virtually

unchanged in May.


TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIOJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

-25

Units (000s)

12345678910111213141516171819

BL/BU Ratio (Months)

BACKLOG


The BL/BU ratio continued its descent in May, reaching 5.6 months, as build was little changed and

backlog fell. The ratio stood at 6.1 months in April, following March’s 6.6 month reading.

TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. INVENTORY/RETAIL SALES RATIOJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-10

-20

-30

Units (000s)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


INVENTORY: Actual & SA

RETAIL SALES: Actual & SA

IN/RS RATIO (Right Axis)

Build above the level of retail sales added another 1,600 units to inventory. However, increasing retail

sales mitigated the situation, reducing the IN/RS ratio to 2.5 months.


Class 8 Backlog Analysis: Build Plan Slots Filled/Unfilled Next 6 Months


2010 2 3 4

2011 2 3 4

2 012 2 3 4

201 3 2 3 4

201 4 2 3 4

2015 2 3 4

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200Units (000s)

Filled slotsUnfilled Slots

Based on SOI: Class 8 OEM build plan

Approximately 9,200 build slots remain open in Q2’15, with nearly 16,000 available in Q3’15.

The BL analysis can be found on the top of page 9 in the report.

TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. RETAIL SALESJanuary '10 - May '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-5

-10

Units (000s)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

-20

-40

Y/Y % Change

Y/Y % Chg.(Right Axis)

Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Actual retail sales increased by 1,000 units m/m in May; the very strong story continues.


N.A. CLASS 8 BUILD PER DAYJanuary '10 - December '15


10 11 12 13 14 15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

-200

-400

-600

Units Per Day

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

-50

Y/Y % Change

Y/Y% Chg.(right axis)

OEM build plans anticipate Class 8 build to average nearly 1,400 units per day

through the next two quarters.

SOI TOTAL CL. 8 BUILD PLAN DEVIATION 3 MOS. FROM ACTUALJanuary '10 - May '15(Actual and 3MMA)


10 11 12 13 14 150.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5Fcst. vs. Actual Ratio

Build PlanOverstated

Build PlanUnderstated

OEM build plans are in very close alignment with actual through May.

JAN FEB MAR QI APR MAY JUN QII JUL* AUG* SEP QIII OCT NOV DEC QIV YEARCLASS 8 BUILD: A A A A A A F F F F F F F F F F F

TRACTOR 18,920 18,858 22,026 59,804 21,594 21,810 23,100 66,504 22,806 21,515 23,186 67,507 23,650 20,384 19,584 63,618 257,433 STRAIGHT TRUCK 5,955 6,132 7,429 19,516 7,507 6,833 7,482 21,822 7,238 6,637 7,371 21,246 7,612 6,444 6,228 20,284 82,868

TOTAL CLASS 8 24,875 24,990 29,455 79,320 29,101 28,643 30,582 88,326 30,044 28,152 30,557 88,753 31,262 26,828 25,812 83,902 340,301

Days 20 19 22 61 21 20 22 63 22 20 21 63 22 19 18 59 246 Units per day 1,244 1,315 1,339 1,300 1,386 1,432 1,390 1,402 1,366 1,408 1,455 1,409 1,421 1,412 1,434 1,422 1,383

PREVIOUS BUILD PLANS: TOTAL CLASS 8: MONTHS FROM ACTUAL 7 MONTHS - - 28,864 80,357 - - - - - - - - - - 25,812 83,902 340,301 6 - 25,214 29,070 82,593 29,232 28,100 30,922 89,149 30,106 28,388 29,421 88,461 31,526 26,828 - - - 5 26,279 25,944 30,140 84,606 29,880 28,220 30,438 87,087 30,418 29,186 29,114 88,181 31,262 - - - - 4 27,579 26,687 30,602 85,210 30,007 27,460 30,086 86,614 29,854 28,601 30,557 88,753 - - - - - 3 27,779 26,966 30,448 84,705 29,189 27,720 30,658 87,801 30,466 28,152 - - - - - - - 2 27,642 26,795 29,656 80,769 28,808 28,020 30,878 88,159 30,044 - - - - - - - - 1 27,462 26,238 29,370 79,235 29,123 28,180 30,582 88,326 - - - - - - - - - ACTUAL 24,875 24,990 29,455 79,320 29,101 28,643 - - - - - - - - - - -

NOTE: A = actual build; F = forecast build plans. Data is not seasonally adjusted. The North American Class 8 build plans are a compilation of actual and estimated buildplans from vehicle manufacturers. "Most likely" adjustments are made by the editor.* Reflects factory shutdowns where applicable

N.A. BUILDQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YEAR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YEAR

CLASS 8 TRACTOR 40,174 48,477 46,967 45,086 180,704 48,844 55,333 60,101 56,420 220,698 CLASS 8 STRAIGHT TRUCK 14,699 18,614 16,548 15,236 65,097 18,148 18,320 19,541 20,390 76,399

TOTAL CLASS 8 54,873 67,091 63,515 60,322 245,801 66,992 73,653 79,642 76,810 297,097

BUILD DAYS 61 63 61 58 243 62 63 55 58 238 BUILD PER DAY 900 1,065 1,041 1,040 1,012 1,081 1,169 1,448 1,324 1,248

SIX MONTH FORECASTS AND ACTUAL BUILD BY MONTH & QUARTERNORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OEMs' CLASS 8 BUILD PLANS: 2015

2013 2014

MAY 2015

June 2015 • U.S. Trailers • Page 19

ACT Research Co., LLC, 2015

STATE OF THE INDUSTRY SERIES NORTH AMERICA CLASSES 5 - 8 VEHICLES

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