commercial / multifamily quarterly databook | q1...

COMMERCIAL / MULTIFAMILY QUARTERLY DATABOOK | Q1 2017

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This data is provided by MBA solely for use as a reference. No part of the survey or data may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or redistributed in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without MBA’s prior written consent.

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COMMERCIAL / MULTIFAMILY QUARTERLY DATABOOK Q1 2017

First Quarter 2017

Selected Charts

Price Indices

December 2000 = 100

Source: MBA, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors

Average Vacancy Rates By Property Type

Source: REIS

Month‐over‐month Change in At‐Place Employment

Thousands of jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Ten‐year Treasury and 10‐year Swaps Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Treasury Yield Curve Percent

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Multifamily Permits, Starts and Completions Thousands, Seasonally adjusted annual rate

Source: Census Bureau

The Commercial Real Estate/ Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book is a quarterly compendium of the latest MBA research on the commercial/multifamily finance markets. The latest version of the Data Book can be downloaded from the MBA

website at:

http://www. mba.org/crefresearch

MBA Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book First Quarter 2017 June 30, 2017 SELECTED CHARTS .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 1. OUTLOOK

Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 MBA Economic Forecast .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Treasury Yields and Bank Rates .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Employees on Non-farm Payrolls ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Monthly Retail Sales ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 16

2. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY FINANCE ENVIRONMENT

Extract of Commercial Real Estate Comments from The Federal Reserve Board’s Beige Book ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 New Inventory Change Less Net Absorption for Commercial/Multifamily Properties ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Average Rents and Vacancy Rates at Commercial/Multifamily Properties ........................................................................................................................... 23 Multifamily Building Permits, Starts and Completions .................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Value of Construction Put-In-Place ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume ............................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Commercial/Multifamily Prices and Capitalization Rates .............................................................................................................................................................. 33 Commercial/Multifamily Property Price Indices ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35

3. PRODUCTION

Quarterly Mortgage Banker Originations Survey .............................................................................................................................................................................. 37 Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Debt Obligation (CRE CDO) Issuance ..................................................................................................................................... 40 American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) Commitment Volumes .............................................................................................................................................. 42

4. COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE DEBT & REAL ESTATE SECURITIES OUTSTANDING

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ................................................................................................................................................................... 44 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies by Investor Group ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Outstanding ................................................................................................................................................. 67 Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) Spreads ......................................................................................................................................................... 70

5. RECENT MBA COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY RESEARCH RELEASES ................................................................................................................................. 72


OUTLOOK OUTSTANDINGENVIRONMENT SERVICINGPRODUCTION RELEASES

© Mortgage Bankers Association 2017. All rights reserved.

1. Outlook Introduction Commercial and multifamily market activity has downshifted at the start of 2017. Markets continue to move forward, but the rapid increases in property values, transaction volumes and other fundamentals that characterized the post-recession period have given way to more regular changes tied to the economy as well as changes in supply and demand. ECONOMY The US economy grew at a slower pace during the first quarter – a real seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 percent compared to rates of 2.1 percent in Q4 and 3.5 percent in Q3 of 2016. Lower government spending and a slowdown in the growth of inventories and personal consumption expenditures were the key drivers. The job market saw continued growth – with a seasonally adjusted increases of 216,000 in the number of jobs in January and 232,000 in February. Job growth slowed to 50,000 in March, 174,000 in April and 138,000 in May, but the headline unemployment rate has continued downward, falling to 4.3 percent in May. Consumer spending remains robust – with total retail sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers four percent higher than a year earlier. Household growth also picked up, with the US adding 1.2 million households between Q1 2016 and Q1 2017. Bucking recent trends, roughly two-thirds of the new households were in owner-occupied housing, one-third in renter-occupied – more closely matching the overall balance of renters and homeowners. REAL ESTATE FUNDAMENTALS Commercial real estate fundamentals generally improved during the first quarter, with most vacancy rates trending down and rents trending up. The already tight apartment market saw vacancy rates tick down to 4.2 percent in the first quarter (for professionally managed properties), with rents rising 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The pace of rent growth slowed from the 5.7 percent rate a year earlier, as net absorption slowed to the lowest rate since 2009. The office vacancy rate was flat

from a year earlier, with average rents up 1.8 percent. Retail vacancy rates fell to 9.8 percent (from 9.9 percent a year earlier) and average rents rose 1.6 percent. New construction activity continued at a strong clip, but the pace slowed. Aside from multifamily, the seasonally adjusted annual change in the value of new construction put in place fell between December 2016 and April 2017. Other series also show multifamily construction activity remaining robust. Although starts have trended downward, from a 449,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in December 2016 to 284,000 in May, the 602,000 multifamily units under construction remains one of the highest levels since the mid-1970s. PROPERTY SALES Commercial and multifamily property sales activity started 2017 slowly, with first quarter sales of the major property types down 19 percent compared to Q1 2016. Multifamily led the declines – with sales transactions 35 percent lower than what was seen a year earlier. Sales of office properties were down 15 percent and retail was down 10 percent. Sales of industrial properties – referred to by some as “the new multifamily” because of the interest in the sector – were up three percent. Property price growth has slowed, with different indices providing different results. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) property price index started 2017 with a slight decline, falling 1.7 percent in the first three months of the year, while the Moody’s/RCA CPPI increased 0.7 percent. The Green Street Advisors CPPI – which tracks values among properties owned by REITs – fell 0.4 percent. Capitalization rates were also mixed during the quarter. Cap rates fell for apartment properties (to a new record low of 5.4 percent), were flat for office properties (6.8 percent), and rose slightly for industrial (to 7.0 percent) and retail (to 6.6 percent) properties.

7




FINANCE MARKETS Commercial real estate borrowing and lending started 2017 on much the same footing it ended 2016. Multifamily properties remain the key force behind overall originations trends, and the GSEs continue to drive multifamily originations. Matching broader investment themes, financing backed by industrial properties also picked up, while retail declined. The first quarter saw a 40 percent year-over-year increase in the dollar volume of loans for industrial properties, a 22 percent increase for health care properties, a 14 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 2 percent increase for office properties, a 23 percent decrease in retail property loans, and a 40 percent decrease in hotel property loans. Among capital sources, the dollar volume of loans originated for Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) increased by 33 percent year-over-year. Commercial bank portfolio loans increased 11 percent, life insurance companies’ loans were essentially flat from first quarter of last year, and loans originated for Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) decreased 17 percent. MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING The amount of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding continued to grow during the first quarter. Almost two-thirds of the growth came from increases in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding, and 80 percent of that growth came from portfolios and MBS held or guaranteed by federal government agencies and the GSEs. Total commercial/multifamily debt outstanding rose to $3.01 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2017, the first time it has broken the $3 trillion mark. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $1.17 trillion, an increase of $23.4 billion, or 2.0 percent, from the fourth of quarter of 2016. More recent releases from the Federal Reserve show that during the second quarter of 2017, bank multifamily portfolios stopped growing and remain relatively flat, while their holdings of other commercial property loans have continued to grow. Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages remained at or near record lows for most capital sources during the first quarter. Growth in property incomes and property values, coupled with low

interest rates, have facilitated financing. As we near the end of the second quarter, the industry has largely worked through the so-called 'wave of maturities'.

8




MBA Economic ForecastJune 12, 2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 2017 2018 2019

Percent Change, SAARReal Gross Domestic Product 0.8 1.4 3.5 2.1 1.2 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.6 4.3 3.0 3.5 0.6 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 Business Fixed Investment -3.4 1.0 1.4 0.9 11.4 1.8 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.7 4.1 -0.1 5.3 4.1 3.5 Residential Investment 7.8 -7.7 -4.1 9.6 13.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 5.0 4.4 3.2 3.6 1.1 6.3 4.0 4.7 Govt. Consumption & Investment 1.6 -1.7 0.8 0.2 -1.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.5 Net Exports (Bil. Chain 2009$) -566.3 -558.5 -522.2 -605.0 -599.9 -621.6 -645.2 -665.4 -680.3 -693.0 -704.7 -722.7 -563.0 -633.0 -700.2 -807.3 Inventory Investment (Bil. Chain 2009$) 40.7 -9.5 7.1 49.6 4.3 37.0 44.3 47.1 46.4 51.4 52.5 53.1 22.0 33.2 50.9 50.9Consumer Prices (YOY) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.3 2.4 2.3 2.5

PercentUnemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.3Federal Funds Rate 0.375 0.375 0.375 0.625 0.875 1.125 1.375 1.375 1.625 1.875 2.125 2.375 0.625 1.375 2.375 3.12510-Year Treasury Yield 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.5

Notes:

All data except interest rates are seasonally adjusted.The 10-Year Treasury Yield is the average for the quarter.Forecast produced with the assistance of the Macroeconomic Advisers' model.Copyright 2017 Mortgage Bankers Association. All rights reserved.THE HISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS ARE PROVIDED "AS IS" WITH NO WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND.

The Fed Funds Rate forecast is shown as the mid point of the Fed Funds range at the end of the period.

2016 2017 2018

9




TREASURY YIELDS AND BANK RATESFederal Reserve Statistical Release H-15

Treasury Yield Curve

Ten Year Treasury and Ten Year Swaps

Source: Federal Reserve Board H-15 Report and JP Morgan SecuritiesYields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities.

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

10-Year7-Year5-Year3-Year1-Year3-Month

May-17 Dec-16 Dec-15 Dec-14 Dec-13 Dec-12

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May

-05

Nov

-05

May

-06

Nov

-06

May

-07

Nov

-07

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

May

-10

Nov

-10

May

-11

Nov

-11

May

-12

Nov

-12

May

-13

Nov

-13

May

-14

Nov

-14

May

-15

Nov

-15

May

-16

Nov

-16

May

-17

10-Year Treasury 10 Year Swaps

10




TREASURY YIELDS AND BANK RATES

Federal Reserve Statistical Release H-15

3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 10-YearTreasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Swap

Dec-11 0.01 0.12 0.39 0.89 1.43 1.98 2.13 Dec-12 0.07 0.16 0.35 0.70 1.13 1.72 1.75 Dec-13 0.07 0.13 0.69 1.58 2.29 2.90 2.95 Dec-14 0.03 0.21 1.06 1.64 1.98 2.21 2.33 Dec-15 0.23 0.65 1.28 1.70 2.04 2.24 2.16 Dec-16 0.51 0.87 1.49 1.96 2.29 2.49 2.32

May-16 0.28 0.59 0.97 1.30 1.60 1.81 1.69 Jun-16 0.27 0.55 0.86 1.17 1.44 1.64 1.46 Jul-16 0.30 0.51 0.79 1.07 1.33 1.50 1.35 Aug-16 0.30 0.57 0.85 1.13 1.40 1.56 1.49 Sep-16 0.29 0.59 0.90 1.18 1.46 1.63 1.46 Oct-16 0.33 0.66 0.99 1.27 1.56 1.76 1.70 Nov-16 0.45 0.74 1.22 1.60 1.93 2.14 2.20 Dec-16 0.51 0.87 1.49 1.96 2.29 2.49 2.32 Jan-17 0.52 0.83 1.48 1.92 2.23 2.43 2.39 Feb-17 0.53 0.82 1.47 1.90 2.22 2.42 2.29 Mar-17 0.75 1.01 1.59 2.01 2.30 2.48 2.39 Apr-17 0.81 1.04 1.44 1.82 2.10 2.30 2.26 May-17 0.90 1.12 1.48 1.84 2.11 2.30 2.20

0.62 0.53 0.51 0.54 0.51 0.49 0.51

Source: Federal Reserve Board H-15 Report and JP Morgan SecuritiesYields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities.

Change in Rate May-16 to May-17

11




EMPLOYEES ON NONFARM PAYROLLS

Number of Employees on Nonfarm PayrollsSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Employees

Year-over-year Change

Month-over-month Change


(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Non-Farm Service Producing Goods Producing Government

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Service Producing Goods Producing Government

12




EMPLOYEES ON NONFARM PAYROLLSNumber of Employees on Nonfarm PayrollsSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Employees

Private Private

Service Goods Government TotalProducing Producing Nonfarm

Dec 2012 94,653 18,532 21,887 135,072 Dec 2013 96,674 18,881 21,819 137,374 Dec 2014 98,949 19,477 21,946 140,372 Dec 2015 101,257 19,730 22,098 143,085 Dec 2016 103,232 19,794 22,299 145,325

Dec 2016 103,232 19,794 22,299 145,325 Jan 2017 103,385 19,845 22,311 145,541 Feb 2017 103,519 19,933 22,321 145,773 Mar 2017 103,561 19,950 22,312 145,823 Apr 2017 103,715 19,969 22,313 145,997 May 2017 103,846 19,985 22,304 146,135

Percent change May 2016 to May 2017 1.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1.6%

Change

Year-over-year

Dec 2012 1,921 288 (67) 2,142 Dec 2013 2,021 349 (68) 2,302 Dec 2014 2,275 596 127 2,998 Dec 2015 2,308 253 152 2,713 Dec 2016 1,975 64 201 2,240

Month-over-month

Dec 2016 118 32 5 155 Jan 2017 153 51 12 216 Feb 2017 134 88 10 232 Mar 2017 42 17 (9) 50 Apr 2017 154 19 1 174 May 2017 131 16 (9) 138


13




MONTHLY RETAIL SALESSeasonally AdjustedBy Kind of Business, $millions

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

05,000

10,00015,000

20,00025,00030,00035,000

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

Building Materials

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

General Merchandise

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

Clothing & Accessories

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

Food and Beverage Stores

05,000

10,00015,000

20,00025,00030,000

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

Health and Personal Care Stores

050,000

100,000150,000

200,000250,000300,000350,000

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

Retail Sales, Excluding Motor Vehicles andParts Dealers

14




MONTHLY RETAIL SALESSeasonally AdjustedBy Kind of Business, $millionsTotal excludes motor vehicle and parts dealers

General Food & Building Health & Clothing & Total % ChangeMerchandise Beverage Materials Personal Accessories

Year-Over-Year 2012 641,380 627,299 281,958 273,446 238,767 3,411,155 3.72%2013 652,715 641,268 301,612 281,804 244,835 3,499,297 2.58%2014 667,388 669,302 317,719 299,100 250,303 3,615,114 3.31%2015 675,322 685,885 331,553 315,125 255,797 3,629,203 0.39%2016 674,107 699,434 350,692 328,343 257,091 3,712,084 2.28%

Month-over-Month

2016 - Oct 56,266 59,072 29,617 27,067 21,514 313,926 0.70%2016 - Nov 56,328 58,989 29,873 27,270 21,537 314,087 0.05%2016 - Dec 56,210 58,769 30,155 27,209 21,524 315,737 0.53%2017 - Jan 57,010 59,170 30,573 27,078 21,675 318,816 0.98%2017 - Feb 56,605 59,157 31,402 27,255 21,111 319,301 0.15%2017 - Mar 56,679 59,538 30,835 27,410 21,536 320,293 0.31%2017 - Apr 57,100 59,628 31,025 27,619 21,589 321,959 0.52%2017 - May 56,928 59,675 31,024 27,630 21,664 321,013 -0.29%

Percent change 2016 - May to 2017 - May 1.3% 2.4% 10.8% 0.4% 1.0% 4.1%


Selected Businesses

15




Change in Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units

Thousands of Units


Quarter-over-quarter Change

Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Change in Renter-occupied Units Change in Owner-occupied Units

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Change in Renter-occupied Units Change in Owner-occupied Units

16




Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing UnitsThousands of Units at End-of-period

Total Owner Renter Total Owner Renter

2007 111,724 75,720 36,003 627 (824) 1,451 2008 111,823 75,465 36,358 100 (255) 355 2009 112,485 75,537 36,948 662 72 590 2010 113,389 75,381 38,010 906 (156) 1,062 2011 113,958 75,231 38,728 568 (150) 718 2012 114,901 75,124 39,777 942 (107) 1,049 2013 115,425 75,242 40,184 525 118 407 2014 117,343 75,050 42,293 1,917 (192) 2,109 2015 117,838 75,234 42,604 495 184 311 2016 118,800 75,556 43,244 1,219 854 365

2014 - Q1 115,255 74,723 40,532 (170) (519) 348 2014 - Q2 115,683 74,817 40,867 428 94 335 2014 - Q3 115,925 74,634 41,291 242 (183) 424 2014 - Q4 117,343 75,050 42,293 1,418 416 1,002 2015 - Q1 117,005 74,505 42,504 (338) (545) 211 2015 - Q2 117,335 74,439 42,895 330 (66) 391 2015 - Q3 117,406 74,778 42,628 71 339 (267) 2015 - Q4 117,838 75,234 42,604 432 456 (24) 2016 - Q1 117,582 74,702 42,879 (256) (532) 275 2016 - Q2 118,279 74,417 43,862 697 (285) 983 2016 - Q3 118,596 75,339 43,256 317 922 (606) 2016 - Q4 118,643 75,604 43,038 47 265 (218) 2017 - Q1 118,800 75,556 43,244 157 (48) 206

Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics

Year-over-year ChangeNumber of Occupied Units

Quarter-over-quarter Change

17


OUTSTANDING SERVICINGPRODUCTION RELEASES


ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

2. Commercial/Multifamily Finance Environment Extract of Commercial Real Estate Comments from the Federal Reserve Board’s Beige Book March 1, 2017 This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on information collected on or before May 22, 2017. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials. NATIONAL SUMMARY Construction of new homes and nonresidential structures also continued to grow at modest to moderate rates, as did sales of existing homes; nonresidential leasing picked up a bit. Lending volume trends tended to mirror (and support) the general activity of the economy. FIRST DISTRICT—BOSTON Commercial real estate markets were mostly flat in the First District in recent weeks. In greater Hartford, office leasing remained subdued as foot traffic slowed further. In Boston, office leasing activity and vacancy rates were said to be stable, but contacts reported that few firms outside of the life sciences industry were expanding their footprints. Some life sciences firms seeking to add space in greater Boston have turned to converting vacant suburban office space into laboratory space. Also in the Boston area, office construction remained limited while apartment construction has shifted increasingly to the suburbs. Commercial real estate activity was also stable in Portland, with continued light leasing activity in the office market and strong demand from developers for vacant industrial space and for the construction of hotels and high-end urban condominiums. Contacts across the District reported that investment sales demand held steady while the supply of commercial properties for sale stayed flat or declined and was quite low in absolute terms. Most contacts forecasted that market conditions would stay the same or improve modestly going forward, but the outlook remained less

optimistic in Connecticut, which has seen flat employment in the past year and faces a severe state budget deficit. SECOND DISTRICT—NEW YORK Commercial real estate markets have been mixed in recent weeks. The market for office space has generally been steady, as both availability rates and asking rents have not changed significantly. The industrial market, which had been strengthening steadily over the past year, has lost some momentum in recent weeks but has continued to tighten. While availability rates have largely leveled off, rents have continued to climb, running 8-12 percent ahead of a year earlier. In contrast, the market for retail space has softened further: vacancy rates reached multi-year highs throughout the District, while asking rents were little changed. Finally, both residential and commercial construction have remained sluggish overall. New starts of single-family homes have remained subdued, while new multi-family construction has slowed substantially. On the commercial side, although there is a good deal of office construction in progress--especially in New York City--there has been very little new office development, except in northern New Jersey. THIRD DISTRICT—PHILADELPHIA Nonresidential real estate contacts covering much of the Third District reported modest growth, as the existing high levels of construction activity broadened across sectors and geographically throughout the region. Overall, leasing activity changed little, although contacts noted that deals within the Philadelphia office market were a bit below expectations until late in the current period.

18




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

FOURTH DISTRICT—CLEVELAND Activity across the commercial real estate sector remains elevated. Increases were reported in transaction volume and the average price per square foot for industrial and office properties during the first quarter compared to prior-year results. Office vacancy rates declined, and asking rents increased, although both at a slow pace. Nonresidential contractors reported that inquiries and backlogs remain strong. The highest demand is for commercial property development, public infrastructure projects, and education buildings. FIFTH DISTRICT—RICHMOND On balance, commercial real estate leasing rose moderately. Retail leasing and sales remained strong, while office and industrial activity slowed modestly as inventory remained limited. Land sales for new construction were steady, with continued robust pipelines. Contacts noted increased remodeling activity of grocery-anchored developments across the District. Rental rates increased moderately in most industrial, retail, and office markets. Retail development remained steady, while agents reported limited office and industrial construction. Multifamily building continued at moderate levels; however a few lenders noted that fewer new developments were being approved for financing. SIXTH DISTRICT—ATLANTA Many District commercial real estate contacts reported improvements in demand that have resulted in rent growth and increased absorption, but the rate of improvement varied by metropolitan area, submarket, and property type. The majority of commercial contractors indicated that the pace of nonresidential construction activity had risen from one year ago, with many reporting increasing backlogs. While most reports indicated that the pace of multifamily construction matched or exceeded the year-ago level, a growing share of contacts reported that multifamily construction is down. Looking forward, the majority of District commercial construction contacts expect nonresidential construction activity to increase in the second quarter, while expectations for the pace of multifamily construction was mixed.

SEVENTH DISTRICT—CHICAGO Demand for nonresidential construction increased slightly, with improvements concentrated in the industrial sector. The pace of commercial real estate activity also increased slightly, with gains in both the for-lease and for-sale segments. Contacts in the Chicago area believed that the market was cooling some, while a contact in West Michigan indicated that the market was the strongest it has been for some time. Commercial rents edged up, as vacancy rates and the availability of sublease space decreased a bit. EIGHTH DISTRICT—ST. LOUIS Commercial real estate activity has also improved modestly since the previous report. Contacts continued to indicate an increase in demand for both office and industrial properties compared with the same time last year. Meanwhile, most contacts reported no change or a slight increase in multifamily property demand and no change or a slight decrease in retail property demand. Commercial construction activity remained robust. Local construction contacts reported relatively no change to demand across most property types. Some contacts noted an increase in multifamily and industrial building. NINTH DISTRICT—MINNEAPOLIS An industry count of total nonresidential construction projects in the District showed an increase compared with the same period a year earlier, including a notable increase in local government projects. Commercial permitting in April rose in Fargo, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., and Rochester, Minn., but was flat in other regions, and declined in Minneapolis and Rapid City. Strong multifamily housing development continued in many District markets. But construction in other commercial sectors was slower, according to industry contacts, particularly in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Residential building, on the other hand, strengthened since the last report. Commercial real estate declined slightly since the last report, though from strong levels. Retail and office vacancy rates in Minneapolis-St. Paul ticked higher, while industrial rates remained unchanged. Commercial real estate transactions also slowed slightly. Thanks to significant new construction, hotel occupancy rates in

19




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

Minnesota were expected to decline, leading to a drop in average room rates by the end of the year, contacts said. TENTH DISTRICT—KANSAS CITY Apartment leasing activity in Houston was better than expected, and one contact noted that absorption (year to date through April) was slowly returning to a more normal pace. Apartment construction remained elevated in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), but was moderating in Austin. Financing for new multifamily properties remained difficult to obtain. Office leasing activity was solid in DFW, but continued to be sluggish in Houston. Industrial demand was holding up in DFW, but there was some concern about the elevated level of construction. ELEVENTH DISTRICT—DALLAS Apartment leasing activity in Houston was better than expected, and one contact noted that absorption (year to date through April) was slowly returning to a more normal pace. Apartment construction remained elevated in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), but was moderating in Austin. Financing for new multifamily properties remained difficult to obtain. Office leasing activity was solid in DFW, but continued to be sluggish in Houston. Industrial demand was holding up in DFW, but there was some concern about the elevated level of construction. TWELFTH DISTRICT—SAN FRANCISCO Permits for single and multi-family units edged up, but contacts noted that construction was somewhat hampered by shortages of available land in some areas. Demand for commercial real estate loans in California remained strong.

20




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

NET INVENTORY CHANGE/NET ABSORPTION COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIESNet Absorption (Thousands of Square Feet)

Net Inventory Change (Thousands of Square Feet)

Source: REIS

-60,000-40,000-20,000

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,00020

02Q

1

200

3Q1

200

4Q1

200

5Q1

200

6Q1

200

7Q1

200

8Q1

200

9Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

Office Retail Apartment

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

200

2Q1

200

3Q1

200

4Q1

200

5Q1

200

6Q1

200

7Q1

200

8Q1

200

9Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1


21




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES NET INVENTORY CHANGE LESS NET ABSORPTIONTHOUSANDS OF SQUARE FEET

CalendarYear Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year YTD Q1

APARTMENT

2011 (37,688) (29,381) (26,785) (37,081) (130,935) (37,688) 2012 (25,283) (13,238) (6,122) (13,472) (58,115) (25,283) 2013 (20,602) (1,121) (2,866) 1,056 (23,533) (20,602) 2014 (10,785) 8,075 8,882 2,136 8,308 (10,785) 2015 (9,086) 796 (46,098) (45,571) (99,959) (9,086) 2016 (45,744) (60,154) (54,406) (46,799) (207,103) (45,744) 2017 15,150 15,150

OFFICE

2011 (1,103) (1,175) (2,593) (1,710) (6,581) (1,103) 2012 (3,327) (1,541) (1,428) (2,522) (8,818) (3,327) 2013 (2,593) 271 (1,545) (35) (3,902) (2,593) 2014 (1,664) 1,675 (2,768) (4,235) (6,992) (1,664) 2015 (3,887) (2,372) (12,768) (15,868) (34,895) (3,887) 2016 (10,439) (6,833) (5,938) (14,253) (37,463) (10,439) 2017 4,413 4,413

RETAIL

2011 (395) 1,647 1,165 (1,112) 1,305 (395) 2012 (1,430) (1,216) (578) (1,337) (4,561) (1,430) 2013 (1,644) (1,633) (743) (1,861) (5,881) (1,644) 2014 166 (880) (1,044) (1,487) (3,245) 166 2015 (1,154) (774) (3,694) (2,562) (8,184) (1,154) 2016 (3,062) (3,801) (676) (3,475) (11,014) (3,062) 2017 (450) (450)

Source: REIS

22




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

AVERAGE RENTS AND VACANCY RATES AT COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIESAverage Rents

Average Vacancy Rates percent

Source: REIS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

200

2Q1

200

2Q3

200

3Q1

200

3Q3

200

4Q1

200

4Q3

200

5Q1

200

5Q3

200

6Q1

200

6Q3

200

7Q1

200

7Q3

200

8Q1

200

8Q3

200

9Q1

200

9Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

2013

Q1

2013

Q3

2014

Q1

2014

Q3

2015

Q1

2015

Q3

2016

Q1

2016

Q3

2017

Q1

Office Retail Apartment (Right Scale)

$/Sq Ft $/Month

02468

1012141618

20

200

2Q1

200

2Q3

200

3Q1

200

3Q3

200

4Q1

200

4Q3

200

5Q1

200

5Q3

200

6Q1

200

6Q3

200

7Q1

200

7Q3

200

8Q1

200

8Q3

200

9Q1

200

9Q3

2010

Q1

2010

Q3

2011

Q1

2011

Q3

2012

Q1

2012

Q3

2013

Q1

2013

Q3

2014

Q1

2014

Q3

2015

Q1

2015

Q3

2016

Q1

2016

Q3

2017

Q1


23




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

AVERAGE RENTS AND VACANCY RATES AT COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Year-over-

year % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Year-over-year

changeAPARTMENT (per month)

2011 1,049$ 1,057$ 1,065$ 1,070$ 2.0% 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.3 -1.82012 1,076$ 1,089$ 1,099$ 1,107$ 2.6% 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 -1.22013 1,113$ 1,123$ 1,135$ 1,146$ 3.4% 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 -0.62014 1,155$ 1,168$ 1,183$ 1,192$ 3.8% 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 -0.22015 1,204$ 1,226$ 1,248$ 1,262$ 4.2% 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 0.02016 1,273$ 1,290$ 1,305$ 1,310$ 5.7% 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.3 0.12017 1,314$ 3.2% 4.2 -0.1

OFFICE 2011 27.67$ 27.75$ 27.88$ 28.01$ 0.3% 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4 0.32012 28.18$ 28.28$ 28.36$ 28.60$ 1.8% 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 -0.32013 28.82$ 28.96$ 29.10$ 29.31$ 2.3% 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 -0.22014 29.53$ 29.76$ 29.91$ 30.24$ 2.5% 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.7 -0.22015 30.53$ 30.77$ 31.00$ 31.26$ 3.4% 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.2 -0.32016 31.56$ 31.74$ 31.87$ 31.98$ 3.4% 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 -0.62017 32.13$ 1.8% 16.0 0.0

RETAIL2011 18.97$ 18.97$ 18.97$ 18.99$ -0.5% 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 0.12012 19.00$ 19.03$ 19.06$ 19.08$ 0.2% 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 0.02013 19.14$ 19.20$ 19.26$ 19.35$ 0.7% 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.4 -0.32014 19.43$ 19.51$ 19.60$ 19.70$ 1.5% 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2 -0.22015 19.80$ 19.90$ 20.00$ 20.11$ 1.9% 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 -0.32016 20.22$ 20.30$ 20.38$ 20.48$ 2.1% 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.9 -0.22017 20.55$ 1.6% 9.8 -0.1

Source: REIS

(per sq. ft)

Average Asking Rents Average Vacancy Rates (percent)

(per sq. ft)

24




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

MULTIFAMILY BUILDING PERMITS, STARTS AND COMPLETIONS

Thousands of Units Permitted, Started and Completedin Structures with 5 or More Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

1968 to present

1996 to present


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1968

1969 1971

1973

1974

1976

1978

1979

1981

1983

1984

1986

1988

1989

1991

1993

1994

1996

1998

1999

200

1

200

3

200

4

200

6

200

8

200

9

2011

2013

2014

2016

Completions 5+ Permits 5+ Starts 5+ Median Starts 1997 - 2007 (300.5)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Completions 5+ Permits 5+ Starts 5+ Median Starts 1997 - 2007 (300.5)

25




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

MULTIFAMILY BUILDING PERMITS, STARTS AND COMPLETIONSNumber of Units Permitted, Started and Completed in Structures with 5 or More Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Permits Starts Completions Permits Starts Completions

2012 285 234 158 54.9% 39.8% 21.3%2013 341 294 186 19.6% 25.6% 18.1%2014 382 342 256 12.0% 16.3% 37.3%2015 455 386 310 19.0% 12.9% 21.4%2016 411 381 311 -9.7% -1.3% 0.2%

May 2016 412 382 283 6.5% -0.5% 17.9%Jun 2016 419 402 344 1.7% 5.2% 21.6%Jul 2016 427 443 331 1.9% 10.2% -3.8%Aug 2016 421 420 288 -1.4% -5.2% -13.0%Sep 2016 482 265 273 14.5% -36.9% -5.2%Oct 2016 474 447 305 -1.7% 68.7% 11.7%Nov 2016 428 323 426 -9.7% -27.7% 39.7%Dec 2016 397 449 323 -7.2% 39.0% -24.2%Jan 2017 465 418 277 17.1% -6.9% -14.2%Feb 2017 340 392 382 -26.9% -6.2% 37.9%Mar 2017 397 355 368 16.8% -9.4% -3.7%Apr 2017 398 315 299 0.3% -11.3% -18.8%May 2017 358 284 335 -10.1% -9.8% 12.0%

-13.1% -25.7% 18.4%


Percent change May 2016 to May 2017

Percent ChangeThousands of Units

Year-over-year

Month-over-month

26




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

NEW PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING UNITS STARTED, BY PURPOSEThousands of Units

Quarter TOTAL TotalFor

RentFor Sale

Percent for Rent

2010Q1 134 114 20 16 4 80%2010Q2 172 142 30 26 4 87%2010Q3 161 119 42 36 6 86%2010Q4 120 96 24 21 3 88%2011Q1 126 90 36 30 6 83%2011Q2 164 123 41 38 3 93%2011Q3 171 118 53 48 5 91%2011Q4 149 100 49 44 5 90%2012Q1 154 105 49 45 4 92%2012Q2 209 151 58 53 5 91%2012Q3 214 150 64 57 7 89%2012Q4 203 129 74 67 7 91%2013Q1 208 136 72 67 5 93%2013Q2 244 174 70 64 6 91%2013Q3 243 165 78 72 6 92%2013Q4 229 142 87 80 8 92%2014Q1 206 134 72 67 5 93%2014Q2 275 183 92 86 6 93%2014Q3 282 178 104 97 7 93%2014Q4 241 154 87 78 9 90%2015Q1 215 140 75 71 4 95%2015Q2 320 205 115 106 9 92%2015Q3 318 203 115 107 8 93%2015Q4 259 166 93 88 5 95%2016Q1 249 170 79 72 6 91%2016Q2 323 218 105 99 7 94%2016Q3 312 206 106 98 9 92%2016Q4 289 187 102 99 6 97%2017Q1 268 182 86 82 4 95%Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Units in Buildings with 2 or More Units1-Family

Units

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1Th

ousa

nds

of u

nits

2+ unit for sale

2+ unit for rent

27




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

Value of Commercial Real Estate Construction Put-In-Place April 2017 Data The value of selected commercial real estate (CRE)-related private construction put-in-place decreased in the month of April, and was higher than the pace of construction in April 2016. The $333.7 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in April was 0.3 percent lower than the March 2017 rate, and 6 percent higher than the April 2016 pace. The pace of construction in April was 108 percent higher than its recession low and 3 percent below its pre-recession high. Private MULTIFAMILY new construction activity decreased in April. April’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $64.9 billion was 0.2 percent lower than March 2017’s $65.0 billion and 10 percent higher than last April’s rate. The pace of construction in April was 396 percent higher than its recession low. The value of private OFFICE construction put-in-place increased in April. April’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $64.8 billion was 15 percent higher than last April’s rate. The pace of construction in April was 197 percent higher than its recession low and 5 percent below its pre-recession high. The value of private HEALTH CARE construction put-in-place decreased one percent in April. April’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $3 billion was 0.1 percent lower than last April’s rate. The pace of construction in April was 15 percent higher than its recession low and 22 percent below its pre-recession high. The value of private RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND SELECTED SERVICES (referred to as COMMERCIAL by the Census Bureau) construction put-in-place decreased 0.3 percent in April. April’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $77.2 billion was 14 percent higher than last April’s rate. The pace of construction in April was 125 percent higher than its recession low and 14 percent below its pre-recession high.

The value of LODGING construction put-in-place decreased 0.8 percent in April. April’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $27.5 billion was 6 percent higher than last April’s rate. The pace of construction in April was 247 percent higher than its recession low and 27 percent below its pre-recession high. The value of MANUFACTURING construction put-in-place decreased 2 percent in April. April’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $67.8 billion was 8 percent lower than last April’s rate. The pace of construction in April was 128 percent higher than its recession low and 17 percent below its pre-recession high.

28




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACESeasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions

Year-Over-Year % Change in Trailing Three Month Selected Private CRE-Related Construction

Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

200

0 -

Jan

200

1 - J

an

200

2 -

Jan

200

3 -

Jan

200

4 -

Jan

200

5 -

Jan

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

200

0 -

Jan

200

1 - J

an

200

2 -

Jan

200

3 -

Jan

200

4 -

Jan

200

5 -

Jan

200

6 -

Jan

200

7 -

Jan

200

8 -

Jan

200

9 -

Jan

2010

- J

an

2011

- J

an

2012

- J

an

2013

- J

an

2014

- J

an

2015

- J

an

2016

- J

an

2017

- J

an

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Multifamily

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Office

05,000

10,00015,000

20,00025,00030,00035,00040,000

200

0 -

Jan

200

1 - J

an20

02

- Ja

n20

03

- Ja

n20

04

- Ja

n20

05

- Ja

n20

06

- Ja

n20

07

- Ja

n20

08

- Ja

n20

09

- Ja

n20

10 -

Jan

2011

- J

an20

12 -

Jan

2013

- J

an20

14 -

Jan

2015

- J

an20

16 -

Jan

2017

- J

an

Lodging

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Commercial (e.g. retail & warehouse)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Manufacturing

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000

200

0 -

Jan

200

1 - J

an20

02

- Ja

n20

03

- Ja

n20

04

- Ja

n20

05

- Ja

n20

06

- Ja

n20

07

- Ja

n20

08

- Ja

n20

09

- Ja

n20

10 -

Jan

2011

- J

an20

12 -

Jan

2013

- J

an20

14 -

Jan

2015

- J

an20

16 -

Jan

2017

- J

an

Health Care

29




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE

Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateValue of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions

Multifamily Commercial Office Lodging Health Care Manufacturing Total % Change

Month-over-Month

2016 - Jan 58,312 68,915 50,722 23,113 30,563 74,525 306,150 2.1%2016 - Feb 58,285 68,308 54,622 24,270 31,540 73,989 311,014 1.6%2016 - Mar 61,543 68,834 55,761 25,801 33,054 76,414 321,407 3.3%2016 - Apr 58,898 68,040 56,408 25,883 31,631 74,091 314,951 -2.0%2016 - May 60,329 69,399 56,630 27,467 32,971 74,922 321,718 2.1%2016 - Jun 60,449 68,513 61,163 27,384 33,228 72,806 323,543 0.6%2016 - Jul 59,698 70,063 62,651 27,208 32,443 77,978 330,041 2.0%2016 - Aug 61,059 71,406 64,025 27,811 33,566 78,434 336,301 1.9%2016 - Sep 61,458 71,358 66,515 28,663 34,058 75,589 337,641 0.4%2016 - Oct 62,470 73,340 66,453 26,974 33,170 72,618 335,025 -0.8%2016 - Nov 61,611 75,970 67,045 28,592 32,681 72,935 338,834 1.1%2016 - Dec 60,827 78,474 68,128 28,001 32,746 67,874 336,050 -0.8%2017 - Jan 62,956 79,192 67,122 28,086 32,830 68,813 338,999 0.9%2017 - Feb 63,480 78,227 64,292 27,257 32,058 68,294 333,608 -1.6%2017 - Mar 65,010 77,393 63,654 27,671 31,952 69,185 334,865 0.4%2017 - Apr 64,862 77,192 64,765 27,452 31,597 67,844 333,712 -0.3%

Mar - Apr -0.2% -0.3% 1.7% -0.8% -1.1% -1.9% -0.3%Apr - Apr 10.1% 13.5% 14.8% 6.1% -0.1% -8.4% 6.0%

Trough to current 396% 125% 197% 247% 15% 128% 108%Peak to current 0% -14% -5% -27% -22% -17% -3%

Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau

Selected Private CRE-Related Types of Construction

30




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIESBillions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater

Source: Real Capital Analytics.

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

200

1 Q1

200

1 Q2

200

1 Q3

200

1 Q4

200

2 Q

120

02

Q2

200

2 Q

320

02

Q4

200

3 Q

120

03

Q2

200

3 Q

320

03

Q4

200

4 Q

120

04

Q2

200

4 Q

320

04

Q4

200

5 Q

120

05

Q2

200

5 Q

320

05

Q4

200

6 Q

120

06

Q2

200

6 Q

320

06

Q4

200

7 Q

120

07

Q2

200

7 Q

320

07

Q4

200

8 Q

120

08

Q2

200

8 Q

320

08

Q4

200

9 Q

120

09

Q2

200

9 Q

320

09

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

Apartment Retail Industrial Office

31




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES

Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 SalesPercent change Sales

Percent change

APARTMENT2013 31.77$ 18.79$ 21.66$ 31.68$ 103.91$ 18% 31.77$ 130%2014 19.64$ 27.04$ 31.98$ 34.91$ 113.57$ 9% 19.64$ -38%2015 34.74$ 31.14$ 34.71$ 53.07$ 153.65$ 35% 34.74$ 77%2016 40.22$ 35.49$ 38.14$ 46.29$ 160.14$ 4% 40.22$ 16%2017 25.98$ 25.98$ -35%

INDUSTRIAL

2013 8.16$ 9.69$ 13.87$ 14.96$ 46.67$ 25% 8.16$ 48%2014 10.44$ 12.23$ 11.87$ 15.69$ 50.23$ 8% 10.44$ 28%2015 20.45$ 16.87$ 13.77$ 27.09$ 78.18$ 56% 20.45$ 96%2016 13.43$ 13.78$ 15.05$ 17.35$ 59.61$ -24% 13.43$ -34%2017 13.85$ 13.85$ 3%

OFFICE2013 17.28$ 22.97$ 26.16$ 39.40$ 105.81$ 29% 17.28$ 12%2014 25.06$ 28.55$ 33.10$ 39.59$ 126.30$ 19% 25.06$ 45%2015 37.00$ 36.05$ 35.28$ 42.32$ 150.66$ 19% 37.00$ 48%2016 31.61$ 34.14$ 35.45$ 42.43$ 143.63$ -5% 31.61$ -15%2017 27.69$ 27.69$

RETAIL2013 9.39$ 14.19$ 19.48$ 19.37$ 62.43$ 8% 9.39$ -25%2014 25.32$ 15.74$ 20.08$ 24.95$ 86.10$ 38% 25.32$ 170%2015 26.08$ 19.67$ 20.48$ 23.96$ 90.19$ 5% 26.08$ 3%2016 19.45$ 19.07$ 19.50$ 18.47$ 76.49$ -15% 19.45$ -25%2017 17.59$ 17.59$ -10%

TOTAL2013 66.60$ 65.64$ 81.17$ 105.42$ 318.82$ 20% 66.60$ 41%2014 80.45$ 83.57$ 97.03$ 115.15$ 376.19$ 18% 80.45$ 21%2015 118.27$ 103.73$ 104.24$ 146.44$ 472.68$ 26% 118.27$ 47%2016 104.71$ 102.48$ 108.14$ 124.53$ 439.87$ -7% 104.71$ -11%2017 85.11$ 85.11$ -19%


Total YTD Q1

32




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES

Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater

Sales price per unit or sq. ft. ($/sq. ft, or $1000/unit for apartment)

Capitalization Rate


$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

200

1 Q1

200

1 Q2

200

1 Q3

200

1 Q4

200

2 Q

120

02

Q2

200

2 Q

320

02

Q4

200

3 Q

120

03

Q2

200

3 Q

320

03

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200

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120

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200

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320

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320

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120

09

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200

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320

09

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2010

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2010

Q2

2010

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2010

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2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

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2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

Apartment Industrial Office Retail Total

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

200

1 Q1

200

1 Q2

200

1 Q3

200

1 Q4

200

2 Q

120

02

Q2

200

2 Q

320

02

Q4

200

3 Q

120

03

Q2

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3 Q

320

03

Q4

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4 Q

120

04

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200

4 Q

320

04

Q4

200

5 Q

120

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5 Q

320

05

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200

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120

06

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7 Q

120

07

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7 Q

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120

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8 Q

320

08

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200

9 Q

120

09

Q2

200

9 Q

320

09

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

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2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

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2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

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2015

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2015

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2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

Apartment Industrial Office Retail

33




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES

Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Year-over-

year % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Year-over-

year % change

APARTMENT2013 117$ 107$ 105$ 115$ 9% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% -1%2014 109$ 113$ 129$ 131$ -7% 6.2% 6.2% 5.9% 6.0% -1%2015 137$ 124$ 133$ 147$ 26% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% -4%2016 145$ 141$ 142$ 152$ 6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% -4%2017 138$ -5% 5.4% -6%

INDUSTRIAL2013 61$ 61$ 65$ 65$ 0% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 1%2014 63$ 66$ 74$ 69$ 3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% -5%2015 76$ 70$ 77$ 72$ 20% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% -3%2016 78$ 78$ 79$ 78$ 2% 7.2% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 3%2017 81$ 4% 7.0% -3%

OFFICE2013 203$ 214$ 227$ 232$ 5% 7.1% 6.8% 7.1% 7.0% -2%2014 219$ 241$ 241$ 220$ 8% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% -3%2015 280$ 237$ 243$ 241$ 28% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% -2%2016 260$ 272$ 232$ 268$ -7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.4% 6.8% -2%2017 247$ -5% 6.8% 3%

RETAIL2013 155$ 176$ 170$ 179$ -3% 7.1% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% -2%2014 202$ 202$ 207$ 196$ 31% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% -4%2015 244$ 212$ 207$ 213$ 21% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% -3%2016 190$ 225$ 243$ 200$ -22% 6.6% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 0%2017 179$ -6% 6.6% 0%

TOTAL2013 121$ 126$ 125$ 134$ -4% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% -4%2014 137$ 135$ 151$ 144$ 14% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 0%2015 155$ 141$ 152$ 143$ 13% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.4% -3%2016 155$ 161$ 156$ 160$ 0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.3% -3%2017 149$ -4% 6.3% 0%


($/sq. ft)

($1000/unit or $/sq. ft)*

Price per unit or sq. ft. Capitalization Rate

($/sq. ft)

($/sq. ft)

($1000/unit)

34




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES

Re-Indexed Values of the Moody's/RCA CPPI,NCREIF Transaction Based Index, and Green Street Advisors CPPI

December 2000 = 100 January 2007 = 100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors

90100110120130140150160170180190

200210220230240

Dec

20

00

Jun

200

1D

ec 2

00

1Ju

n 20

02

Dec

20

02

Jun

200

3D

ec 2

00

3Ju

n 20

04

Dec

20

04

Jun

200

5D

ec 2

00

5Ju

n 20

06

Dec

20

06

Jun

200

7D

ec 2

00

7Ju

n 20

08

Dec

20

08

Jun

200

9D

ec 2

00

9Ju

n 20

10D

ec 2

010

Jun

2011

Dec

20

11Ju

n 20

12D

ec 2

012

Jun

2013

Dec

20

13Ju

n 20

14D

ec 2

014

Jun

2015

Dec

20

15Ju

n 20

16D

ec 2

016

Moodys/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan

200

7M

ay 2

00

7Se

p 20

07

Jan

200

8M

ay 2

00

8Se

p 20

08

Jan

200

9M

ay 2

00

9Se

p 20

09

Jan

2010

May

20

10Se

p 20

10Ja

n 20

11M

ay 2

011

Sep

2011

Jan

2012

May

20

12Se

p 20

12Ja

n 20

13M

ay 2

013

Sep

2013

Jan

2014

May

20

14Se

p 20

14Ja

n 20

15M

ay 2

015

Sep

2015

Jan

2016

May

20

16Se

p 20

16Ja

n 20

17

Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI

35




ENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICESChanges in the Moody's/RCA CPPI, NCREIF Transaction Based Index and Green Street Advisors CPPI

Moody's/ RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI

Green Street Advisors CPPI

2006 -- December 6.1% 18.9% 10.8%2007 -- December 8.9% 4.5% 7.0%2008 -- December -18.5% -14.7% -29.8%2009 -- December -25.6% -20.0% -2.6%2010 -- December 8.5% 17.5% 20.9%2011 -- December 7.8% 4.7% 11.7%2012 -- December 7.7% 3.7% 5.7%2013 -- December 14.9% 9.5% 7.2%2014 -- December 16.3% 10.0% 10.0%2015 -- December 11.0% 5.1% 9.6%2016 -- December 7.7% 7.7% 3.2%

Quarter-over-quarter Month-over month Month-over monthMoody's/RCA

CPPI NCREIF TBIGreen Street

Advisors CPPI Moody's/RCA CPPI2016 -- January 0.2% 0.6%2016 -- February 0.7% 0.4%2016 -- March 1.6% 3.6% -0.4% 0.6%2016 -- April -0.1% 0.5%2016 -- May 1.2% 0.3%2016 -- June 2.0% -1.0% 0.8% 1.2%2016 -- July -0.3% 0.6%2016 -- August 0.8% 1.0%2016 -- September 2.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.4%2016 -- October -0.2% 0.5%2016 -- November 0.3% 0.6%2016 -- December 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.8%2017 -- January 0.0% -0.3%2017 -- February 0.0% 0.7%2017 -- March 0.7% -1.7% -0.4% 0.3%

Current price relative to 2007 peak 113% 126% 123%Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors


36


OUTSTANDING SERVICING RELEASES


PRODUCTIONENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

3. Production Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations May 4, 2017 According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, first quarter 2017 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations increased 9 percent compared to the same period last year, and in line with the seasonality of market, first quarter originations were twenty-seven percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2016. “Commercial real estate borrowing and lending started 2017 on much the same footing it ended 2016,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Multifamily properties remain the key force behind overall originations trends, and the GSEs continue to drive multifamily originations. Matching broader investment themes,

financing backed by industrial properties also picked up, while retail declined.” FIRST QUARTER 2017 ORIGINATIONS INCREASED 9 PERCENT COMPARED TO FIRST QUARTER 2016 A rise in originations for industrial, health care and multifamily properties led the overall increase in commercial/multifamily lending volumes when compared to the first quarter of 2016. The first quarter saw a 40 percent year-over-year increase in the dollar volume of loans for industrial properties, a 22 percent increase for health care properties, a 14 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 2 percent increase for office

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index 2001 quarterly average = 100

050

100150

200250300350400

200

2Q1

200

2Q2

200

2Q3

200

2Q4

200

3Q1

200

3Q2

200

3Q3

200

3Q4

200

4Q

120

04

Q2

200

4Q

320

04

Q4

200

5Q1

200

5Q2

200

5Q3

200

5Q4

200

6Q

120

06

Q2

200

6Q

320

06

Q4

200

7Q1

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7Q2

200

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200

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200

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120

08

Q2

200

8Q

320

08

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200

9Q

120

09

Q2

200

9Q

320

09

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

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Q4

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Q1

2011

Q2

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Q3

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Q4

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Q3

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Q3

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Q4

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Q3

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Q4

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Q1

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Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

37





properties, a 23 percent decrease in retail property loans, and a 40 percent decrease in hotel property loans. Among investor types, the dollar volume of loans originated for Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) increased by 33 percent year-over-year. Commercial bank portfolio loans increased 11 percent, life insurance companies loans were essentially flat from first quarter of last year, and loans originated for Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) loans decreased 17 percent. FIRST QUARTER 2017 ORIGINATIONS DOWN TWENTY-SEVEN PERCENT FROM FOURTH QUARTER 2016 As is typical in comparisons of first quarter originations to fourth quarter originations, first quarter 2017 originations decreased 27 percent compared to the previous quarter. Among property types, hotel properties decreased 58 percent compared to the fourth quarter 2016, a 48 percent decrease in originations for retail properties, a 39 percent decrease for health care properties, a 37 percent decrease for industrial properties, a 29 percent decrease for multifamily properties, and a 26 percent decrease for office properties from the fourth quarter 2016. Among investor types, between the fourth quarter 2016 and first quarter of 2017, the dollar volume of loans for CMBS decreased 40 percent,

originations for GSEs decreased 29 percent, loans for life insurance companies decreased by 28 percent, and loans for commercial bank portfolios decreased 19 percent. To view the report, please visit the following Web link: https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/1Q17CMFOriginationsSurvey.pdf Detailed statistics on the size and scope of the commercial/multifamily origination market are available from these MBA commercial/multifamily research reports.

Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation, 2016

Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Firms: Annual

Origination Volumes, 2016

Annual Report on Multifamily Lending, 2015

Commercial/Multifamily Database Subscription

38





Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4-to-

Q1YTD-YTD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q4-to-Q1

YTD-YTD

TOTAL Multifamily2014 122 164 193 246 -1% -45% -1% 2014 152 201 264 375 -17% -44% -17%2015 182 210 217 293 49% -26% 49% 2015 260 317 293 431 71% -31% 71%2016 182 212 227 272 0% -38% 0% 2016 265 313 369 428 2% -39% 2%2017 198 9% -27% 9% 2017 303 14% -29% 14%

Office2013 55 96 117 127 -6% -45% -6%2014 63 91 130 130 15% -50% 15%2015 97 111 152 150 53% -25% 53%2016 115 123 145 159 18% -23% 18%2017 117 2% -26% 2%

CMBS/Conduits Retail2014 50 116 127 124 -21% -57% -21% 2014 119 195 208 293 -19% -53% -19%2015 106 96 117 121 113% -14% 113% 2015 125 227 289 332 5% -57% 5%2016 86 57 112 118 -19% -29% -19% 2016 180 206 224 270 44% -46% 44%2017 71 -17% -40% -17% 2017 139 -23% -48% -23%

Commercial Banks Industrial2014 265 233 216 343 55% -28% 55% 2014 165 188 223 269 52% -24% 52%2015 263 381 416 625 -1% -23% -1% 2015 610 247 245 614 269% 127% 269%2016 379 507 380 521 44% -39% 44% 2016 265 270 324 588 -56% -57% -56%2017 420 11% -19% 11% 2017 372 40% -37% 40%

Life Insurance Companies Hotel2014 207 304 332 384 18% -42% 18% 2014 212 407 364 479 44% -51% 44%2015 314 345 391 456 51% -18% 51% 2015 322 470 332 766 51% -33% 51%2016 309 396 379 428 -1% -32% -1% 2016 331 416 231 470 3% -57% 3%2017 309 0% -28% 0% 2017 198 -40% -58% -40%

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Health Care2014 95 190 298 443 -55% -53% -55% 2014 101 181 138 265 10% -65% 10%2015 387 404 290 549 306% -13% 306% 2015 102 91 96 115 0% -62% 0%2016 304 391 528 572 -22% -45% -22% 2016 44 33 40 88 -57% -62% -57%2017 403 33% -29% 33% 2017 54 22% -39% 22%

Origination Volume Index Percent Change,Year-over-year Q1

(2001 Avg Qtr = 100)(2001 Avg Qtr = 100)

Origination Volume Index Percent Change,Year-over-year Q1

39





QUARTERLY ISSUANCE OF COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) andCOMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS (CDOs)

Billions of Dollars

Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

200

0 Q

120

00

Q2

200

0 Q

320

00

Q4

200

1 Q1

200

1 Q2

200

1 Q3

200

1 Q4

200

2 Q

120

02

Q2

200

2 Q

320

02

Q4

200

3 Q

120

03

Q2

200

3 Q

320

03

Q4

200

4 Q

120

04

Q2

200

4 Q

320

04

Q4

200

5 Q

120

05

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5 Q

320

05

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6 Q

120

06

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7 Q

120

07

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7 Q

320

07

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200

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120

08

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200

8 Q

320

08

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200

9 Q

120

09

Q2

200

9 Q

320

09

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

CMBS CRE CDO/Re-Remics

40





QUARTERLY ISSUANCE OF COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) andCOMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS (CRE CDOs)/RE-REMICS

Billions of Dollars

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TotalPercent change Total

Percent change

U.S. CMBS ISSUANCE

2010 -$ 2.91$ 1.93$ 6.18$ 11.01$ 121% 11.01$ 121%2011 8.24$ 7.66$ 9.62$ 4.46$ 29.97$ 172% 29.97$ 172%2012 5.19$ 11.42$ 11.44$ 16.37$ 44.41$ 48% 44.41$ 48%2013 21.80$ 19.59$ 15.31$ 23.56$ 80.26$ 81% 80.26$ 81%2014 19.76$ 19.57$ 27.33$ 23.21$ 89.87$ 12% 89.87$ 12%2015 26.23$ 25.57$ 22.08$ 21.18$ 95.07$ 6% 95.07$ 6%2016 17.38$ 9.46$ 17.99$ 23.23$ 68.06$ -28% 68.06$ -28%2017 12.55$ 12.55$ -82%

CRE CDO/RE-REMICS ISSUANCE

2010 -$ 0.15$ 0.32$ 0.94$ 1.40$ 36% 1.40$ N/A2011 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -100% -$ N/A2012 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ N/A -$ N/A2013 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ N/A -$ N/A2014 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ N/A -$ N/A2015 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ N/A -$ N/A2016 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ N/A -$ N/A2017 -$ N/A -$ N/A

Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct

Annual YTD Q1

41





QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS BY LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES

Billions of Dollars

Source: American Council of Life Insurance Companies (ACLI)a. Annual figures may not equal the sum of quarterly figures due to change in reporting.

$-

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

200

1 Q1

200

1 Q2

200

1 Q3

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200

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120

02

Q2

200

2 Q

320

02

Q4

200

3 Q

120

03

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3 Q

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03

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04

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120

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120

08

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8 Q

320

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120

09

Q2

200

9 Q

320

09

Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

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Q1

2015

Q2

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Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

42





QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS BY LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES

Billions of Dollars


Percent change

2001 5.95$ 7.56$ 7.33$ 6.08$ 26.92$ 5.95$ 2002 5.69$ 6.34$ 7.12$ 9.17$ 28.32$ 5% 5.69$ -4%2003 7.22$ 7.88$ 9.28$ 8.30$ 32.68$ 15% 7.22$ 27%2004 7.46$ 12.11$ 10.20$ 8.91$ 38.67$ 18% 7.46$ 3%2005 7.33$ 12.37$ 10.96$ 12.51$ 43.17$ 12% 7.33$ -2%2006 9.76$ 12.66$ 11.35$ 10.31$ 44.08$ 2% 9.76$ 33%2007 9.29$ 10.25$ 11.49$ 11.67$ 42.69$ -3% 9.29$ -5%2008 9.59$ 6.03$ 7.03$ 4.02$ 26.67$ -38% 9.59$ 3%2009 2.62$ 4.63$ 4.30$ 4.83$ 16.39$ -39% 2.62$ -73%2010 4.90$ 5.94$ 9.47$ 10.39$ 30.71$ 87% 4.90$ 87%2011 7.83$ 15.73$ 11.10$ 10.85$ 45.52$ 48% 7.83$ 60%2012 9.18$ 14.90$ 10.75$ 10.78$ 45.60$ 0% 9.18$ 17%2013 8.15$ 15.19$ 14.70$ 14.45$ 52.50$ 15% 8.15$ -11%2014 10.38$ 14.80$ 11.64$ 16.16$ 52.98$ 1% 10.38$ 27%2015 12.08$ 17.65$ 14.93$ 18.79$ 63.45$ 20% 12.08$ 16%2016 14.57$ 17.90$ 17.20$ 17.07$ 66.73$ 5% 14.57$ 21%2017 15.15$ 15.15$ 4%

Source: American Council of Life Insurance Companies (ACLI)a. Annual figures may not equal the sum of quarterly figures due to changes in reporting.

Annual (a) YTD Q1

43


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OUTSTANDINGPRODUCTIONENVIRONMENTOUTLOOK

4. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding June 13, 2017 Total commercial/multifamily debt outstanding rose to $3.01 trillion at the end of the first quarter, the first time it has broken the $3 trillion mark. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $1.17 trillion, an increase of $23.4 billion, or 2.0 percent, from the fourth of quarter of 2016. “The amount of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding continued to grow during the first quarter,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Almost two-thirds of the growth came from increases in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding, and 80 percent of that growth came from portfolios and MBS and held or guaranteed by federal government agencies and these GSEs.” Woodwell continued: “In addition, recent releases from the Federal Reserve show that during the second quarter of 2017, bank multifamily portfolios stopped growing and remain relatively flat, while their holdings of other commercial property loans have continued to grow.” The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose by $37.6 billion in the first quarter of 2017, a 1.3% increase over the fourth quarter of 2016, with three of the four major investor groups increasing their holdings. The four major investor groups are: bank and thrift; commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), collateralized debt obligation (CDO) and other asset backed securities (ABS) issues; federal agency and government sponsored enterprise (GSE) portfolios and mortgage backed securities (MBS); and life insurance companies.

Commercial Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding By Investor Group, First Quarter 2017

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SERVICING RELEASES



The analysis summarizes the holdings of loans or, if the loans are securitized, the form of the security. For example, many life insurance companies invest both in whole loans for which they hold the mortgage note (and which appear in this data under Life Insurance Companies) and in CMBS, CDOs and other ABS for which the security issuers and trustees the note (and which appear here under CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues). Commercial banks continue to hold the largest share of commercial/multifamily mortgages, $1.2 trillion, or 41 percent of the total. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS are the second largest holders of commercial/multifamily mortgages, holding $540 billion, or 18 percent of the total. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $438 billion, or 15 percent of the total, and life insurance companies hold $436 billion, or 15 percent of the total. Many life insurance companies, banks and the GSEs purchase and hold CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues. These loans appear in the “CMBS, CDO and other ABS” category. MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING Looking solely at multifamily mortgages, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold the largest share, with $540 billion, or 46 percent of the total multifamily debt outstanding. They are followed by banks and thrifts with $390 billion, or 33 percent of the total. State and local government hold $92 billion, or 8 percent of the total; life insurance companies hold $69 billion, or 6 percent of the total; CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $44 billion, or 4 percent of the total, and nonfarm noncorporate business holds $13 billion, or one percent of the total. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING In the first quarter of 2017, banks and thrifts saw the largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt – an increase of $24.6 billion, or 2.1 percent. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS increased their holdings by $18.9 billion, or 3.6 percent, and life insurance companies increased their holdings by $10.3 billion, or 2.4 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the largest decrease at $21.3 billion, or down 4.6 percent.

In percentage terms, REITs saw the largest increase in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, an increase of 8.5 percent. Other insurance companies saw their holdings decrease 4.8 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING The $23.4 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding between the first quarter of 2017 and fourth quarter of 2016 represents a 2.0 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, an increase of $18.9 billion, or 3.6 percent. Commercial banks increased their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt by $7.5 billion, or 2.0 percent. Life insurance companies increased by $1.6 billion, or 2.4 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the largest decline in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, by $4.1 billion, or down 8.6 percent. In percentage terms, GSE portfolios and MBS recorded the largest increase in holdings of multifamily mortgages, at 3.6 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw the biggest decrease at 8.6 percent. MBA’s complete Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding report can be downloaded here. MBA’s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Accounts of the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Quarterly Banking Profile and data from Wells Fargo Securities. More information on this data series is contained in Appendix A.

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SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

200

7Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q20

08Q

120

08Q

220

08Q

320

08Q

200

9Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q20

10Q

120

10Q

220

10Q

320

10Q

420

11Q

120

11Q

220

11Q

320

11Q

420

12Q

120

12Q

220

12Q

320

12Q

420

13Q

120

13Q

220

13Q

320

13Q

420

14Q

120

14Q

220

14Q

320

14Q

420

15Q

120

15Q

220

15Q

320

15Q

420

16Q

120

16Q

220

16Q

320

16Q

420

17Q

1

MF Commercial

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Intex Solutions, Inc. and FDIC

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QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGCommercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector

Mortgage Debt Outstanding2017 Q1

($millions) Percent

2016 Q4Change

($millions) % of total ($millions) % of

total

Sector Share of $ Change

Bank and Thrift 1,218,134 1,193,515 24,619 2.1%40.5% 40.2% 65.5%Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 539,854 520,989 18,865 3.6%17.9% 17.5% 50.2%CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 437,610 458,860 -21,250 -4.6%14.5% 15.4% -56.5%Life insurance companies 435,666 425,363 10,303 2.4%14.5% 14.3% 27.4%State and local government 110,176 110,468 -292 -0.3%3.7% 3.7% -0.8%Federal government 83,092 83,302 -210 -0.3%2.8% 2.8% -0.6%REITs 71,007 65,440 5,567 8.5%2.4% 2.2% 14.8%Finance companies 24,725 24,870 -145 -0.6%0.8% 0.8% -0.4%Nonfarm noncorporate business 24,379 24,086 293 1.2%0.8% 0.8% 0.8%Nonfinancial corporate business 23,551 22,938 613 2.7%0.8% 0.8% 1.6%Private pension funds 20,136 20,213 -77 -0.4%0.7% 0.7% -0.2%Other insurance companies 14,197 14,916 -719 -4.8%0.5% 0.5% -1.9%State and local government retirement funds 4,089 4,090 -1 0.0%0.1% 0.1% 0.0%Household sector 1,075 1,054 21 2.0%0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

3,007,691 2,970,104TOTAL 37,587 1.3%

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Intex Solutions, Inc. and FDICNote: Beginning with the Q2 2014 release, MBA’s analysis of mortgage debt outstanding modifies the data from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States with respect to loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and by real estate investment trusts (REITs). The corrections create differences with previous releases and with the Federal Reserve data. For more information, please see the Appendix to this report.

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COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


1,075

4,089

14,197

20,136

23,551

24,379

24,725

71,007

83,092

110,176

435,666

437,610

539,854

1,218,134

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Household sector

State and local government retirement funds

Other insurance companies

Private pension funds

Nonfinancial corporate business

Nonfarm noncorporate business

Finance companies

REITs

Federal government

State and local government

Life insurance companies

CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS

Bank and Thrift

2016Q4 2017Q1

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COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sectorby Quarter($millions)


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

200

0Q

1

200

1Q1

200

2Q1

200

3Q1

200

4Q1

200

5Q1

200

6Q1

200

7Q1

200

8Q1

200

9Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS Bank and Thrift CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues Life insurance companies

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SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)


(40,000)

(20,000)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

200

7Q2

200

7Q3

200

7Q4

200

8Q1

200

8Q2

200

8Q3

200

8Q4

200

9Q1

200

9Q2

200

9Q3

200

9Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

MF Commercial TOTAL

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SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


(21,250)

(292)

(145)

(77)

(1)

21

293

613

5,567

10,303

18,865

24,618

(719)

(210)

(30,000) (20,000) (10,000) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000


Other insurance companies


Federal government

Finance companies



Household sector



REITs



Bank and Thrift

2016Q4 2017Q1

51


SERVICING RELEASES



MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING

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MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

200

7Q1

200

7Q2

200

7Q3

200

7Q4

200

8Q1

200

8Q2

200

8Q3

200

8Q20

09Q

120

09Q

220

09Q

320

09Q

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011Q

120

11Q2

2011Q

320

11Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

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SERVICING RELEASES



QUARTERLY MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGMultifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector

Mortgage Debt Outstanding2017 Q1

($millions) Percent

2016 Q4Change

($millions)% of total ($millions)

% of total

Sector Share of $ Change

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 539,854 520,989 18,865 3.6%46.2% 45.5% 80.5%

Bank and Thrift 390,363 382,861 7,502 2.0%33.4% 33.4% 32.0%

State and local government 91,813 92,057 -244 -0.3%7.9% 8.0% -1.0%

Life insurance companies 68,527 66,907 1,620 2.4%5.9% 5.8% 6.9%

CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 43,699 47,817 -4,118 -8.6%3.7% 4.2% -17.6%

Nonfarm noncorporate business 13,457 13,295 162 1.2%1.2% 1.2% 0.7%

Federal government 12,505 12,588 -83 -0.7%1.1% 1.1% -0.4%

REITs 2,710 2,780 -70 -2.5%0.2% 0.2% -0.3%

State and local government retirement funds 1,779 1,916 -137 -7.2%0.2% 0.2% -0.6%

Private pension funds 1,558 1,623 -65 -4.0%0.1% 0.1% -0.3%

Finance companies 1,238 1,245 -7 -0.6%0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Nonfinancial corporate business 906 883 23 2.6%0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

1,168,409 1,144,961TOTAL 23,448 2.0%


Note: Beginning with the Q2 2014 release, MBA’s analysis of mortgage debt outstanding modifies the data from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States with respect to loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and by real estate investment trusts (REITs). The corrections create differences with previous releases and with the Federal Reserve data. For more information, please see the Appendix to this report.

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MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


906

1,238

1,558

1,779

2,710

12,505

13,457

43,699

68,527

91,813

390,363

539,854

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000


Finance companies



REITs

Federal government





Bank and Thrift


2016Q4 2017Q1

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SERVICING RELEASES



MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDINGTotal Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sector by Quarter($millions)


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

198

0Q

1

198

2Q

1

198

4Q

1

198

6Q

1

198

8Q

1

199

0Q

1

199

2Q

1

199

4Q

1

199

6Q

1

199

8Q

1

20

00

Q1

20

02

Q1

20

04

Q1

20

06

Q1

20

08

Q1

20

10Q

1

20

12Q

1

20

14Q

1

20

16Q

1

Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS Bank and Thrift CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues

Life insurance companies State and local government

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MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter($millions)


(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

200

7Q2

200

7Q3

200

7Q4

200

8Q1

200

8Q2

200

8Q3

200

8Q4

200

9Q1

200

9Q2

200

9Q3

200

9Q4

2010

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

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SERVICING RELEASES



MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWSNet Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector($millions)


-4,118

-244

-137

-83

-65

-7

23

162

1,620

7,502

18,865

-70

(10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000




Federal government

REITs


Finance companies




Bank and Thrift


2016Q4 2017Q1

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APPENDIX A MBA’s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Accounts of the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Quarterly Banking Profile and data from Wells Fargo Securities. Bank Holdings MBA’s analysis of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding was changed in the fourth quarter of 2010 to exclude two categories of loans that had previously been included;

a. loans for acquisition, development and construction and b. loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties.

By excluding these loan types, MBA’s analysis more accurately reflects the balance of loans supported by office buildings, retail centers, apartment buildings and other income-producing properties that rely on rents and leases to make their payments. For the first quarter 2017, the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts data attributed $2.1 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages to banks and thrifts. Comparing this number to the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile for the same period, one sees that banks and thrifts held $390 billion of multifamily mortgages and $1,347.0 billion of non-farm nonresidential mortgages, of which 61 percent or $828 billion were income-producing. The combined $1.22 trillion of mortgages backed by multifamily and other income-producing properties is included in this analysis. The $2.1 trillion total reported by the Federal Reserve also includes $519 billion of loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties and another $319 billion of loans backed by acquisition, development and construction projects (including those for single-family development), which are excluded in from this analysis.

Estimated Components of Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds “Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages” Held by Banks and Thrifts ($Billions)

Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC

Construction loans, $318.8

Owner-occupied

commercial mortgages,

$518.8

Income-producing

commercial mortgages,

$827.8

Multifamily mortgages,

$390.4

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Mortgages in CMBS and held by REITs Beginning with its Q2 2014 release, the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States adjusted its balance of commercial mortgages held in CMBS and by REITs to reflect the impact of FAS 167 and its implications for how entities report certain securitized mortgages on their balance sheets. The effect of this change was to inflate the balance of mortgages appearing under REITs by approximately $130 billion and to reduce the balance appearing under CMBS by the same amount. From an accounting perspective, such changes are required, but the changes lead to a significant distortion of the size of the CMBS and REIT markets. For CMBS, MBA corrects for this by relying on data from Wells Fargo Securities to size the balance of commercial and multifamily mortgages in CMBS. (The analysis continues to rely on the Financial Accounts of the United States to size multifamily balances held in CMBS, as the FAS 167 adjustments did not affect them.) For REIT balances, MBA uses Fed data to reverse the FAS 167 inclusions and thus to report the mortgages, and not securitized assets, that REITs hold. The full corrected series are available as a part of MBA’s CREF Database. Contact [email protected] for more information.

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SERVICING RELEASES



Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies First Quarter Delinquencies Remain Low June 1, 2017

Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans were flat or decreased in the first quarter of 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. “Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages remained at or near record lows for most capital sources during the first quarter,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Growth in property incomes and property values, coupled with low interest rates, have facilitated financing. As we near the end of the second quarter, the industry has largely worked through the so-called ‘wave of maturities’.” The MBA analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Together these groups hold more than 80 percent of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding. Based on the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of loans, delinquency rates for each group at the end of the first quarter were as follows:

• Banks and thrifts (90 or more days delinquent or in non-accrual): 0.56 percent, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016;

• Life company portfolios (60 or more days delinquent):

0.02 percent, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016;

• Fannie Mae (60 or more days delinquent): 0.05 percent, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2016.

• Freddie Mac (60 or more days delinquent): 0.03 percent,

unchanged from third quarter of 2016; • CMBS (30 or more days delinquent or in REO): 4.45

percent, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2016;

The analysis incorporates the measures used by each individual investor group to track the performance of their loans. Because each investor group tracks delinquencies in its own way, delinquency rates are not comparable from one group to another. Construction and development loans are not included in the numbers presented here, but are included in many regulatory definitions of ‘commercial real estate’ despite the fact they are often backed by single-family residential development projects rather than by office buildings, apartment buildings, shopping centers, or other income-producing properties. The FDIC delinquency rates for bank and thrift held mortgages reported here do include loans backed by owner-occupied commercial properties. Differences between the delinquencies measures are detailed in Appendix A.

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CHART 1. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS

Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period

NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another.

Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1990

--

Q1

1991

--

Q1

1992

--

Q1

1993

--

Q1

1994

--

Q1

1995

--

Q1

1996

--

Q1

1997

--

Q1

1998

--

Q1

1999

--

Q1

200

0 -

- Q

120

01 -

- Q

120

02

-- Q

120

03

-- Q

120

04

-- Q

120

05

-- Q

120

06

-- Q

120

07

-- Q

120

08

-- Q

120

09

-- Q

120

10 -

- Q

120

11 -

- Q

120

12 -

- Q

120

13 -

- Q

120

14 -

- Q

120

15 -

- Q

120

16 -

- Q

120

17 -

- Q

1

CMBS (30+ days and REO)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1990

--

Q1

1991

--

Q1

1992

--

Q1

1993

--

Q1

1994

--

Q1

1995

--

Q1

1996

--

Q1

1997

--

Q1

1998

--

Q1

1999

--

Q1

200

0 -

- Q

1

200

1 --

Q1

200

2 --

Q1

200

3 --

Q1

200

4 --

Q1

200

5 --

Q1

200

6 --

Q1

200

7 --

Q1

200

8 --

Q1

200

9 --

Q1

2010

--

Q1

2011

--

Q1

2012

--

Q1

2013

--

Q1

2014

--

Q1

2015

--

Q1

2016

--

Q1

2017

--

Q1

Fannie Mae* (60+ days) Freddie Mac^ (60+ days)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1990

--

Q1

1991

--

Q1

1992

--

Q1

1993

--

Q1

1994

--

Q1

1995

--

Q1

1996

--

Q1

1997

--

Q1

1998

--

Q1

1999

--

Q1

200

0 -

- Q

120

01 -

- Q

120

02

-- Q

120

03

-- Q

120

04

-- Q

120

05

-- Q

120

06

-- Q

120

07

-- Q

120

08

-- Q

120

09

-- Q

120

10 -

- Q

120

11 -

- Q

120

12 -

- Q

120

13 -

- Q

120

14 -

- Q

120

15 -

- Q

120

16 -

- Q

120

17 -

- Q

1

Banks & Thrifts (90+ days)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1990

--

Q1

1991

--

Q1

1992

--

Q1

1993

--

Q1

1994

--

Q1

1995

--

Q1

1996

--

Q1

1997

--

Q1

1998

--

Q1

1999

--

Q1

200

0 -

- Q

120

01 -

- Q

120

02

-- Q

120

03

-- Q

120

04

-- Q

120

05

-- Q

120

06

-- Q

120

07

-- Q

120

08

-- Q

120

09

-- Q

120

10 -

- Q

120

11 -

- Q

120

12 -

- Q

120

13 -

- Q

120

14 -

- Q

120

15 -

- Q

120

16 -

- Q

120

17 -

- Q

1

Life Companies (60+ days)

62


SERVICING RELEASES



CHART 2. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS,2000 - PRESENT



Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

200

0 -

- Q

1

200

1 --

Q1

200

2 --

Q1

200

3 --

Q1

200

4 --

Q1

200

5 --

Q1

200

6 --

Q1

200

7 --

Q1

200

8 --

Q1

200

9 --

Q1

2010

--

Q1

2011

--

Q1

2012

--

Q1

2013

--

Q1

2014

--

Q1

2015

--

Q1

2016

--

Q1

2017

--

Q1

Banks & Thrifts (90+ days)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

200

0 -

- Q

1

200

1 --

Q1

200

2 --

Q1

200

3 --

Q1

200

4 --

Q1

200

5 --

Q1

200

6 --

Q1

200

7 --

Q1

200

8 --

Q1

200

9 --

Q1

2010

--

Q1

2011

--

Q1

2012

--

Q1

2013

--

Q1

2014

--

Q1

2015

--

Q1

2016

--

Q1

2017

--

Q1

CMBS (30+ days and REO)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

200

0 -

- Q

1

200

1 --

Q1

200

2 --

Q1

200

3 --

Q1

200

4 --

Q1

200

5 --

Q1

200

6 --

Q1

200

7 --

Q1

200

8 --

Q1

200

9 --

Q1

2010

--

Q1

2011

--

Q1

2012

--

Q1

2013

--

Q1

2014

--

Q1

2015

--

Q1

2016

--

Q1

2017

--

Q1

Life Companies (60+ days)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

200

0 -

- Q

1

200

1 --

Q1

200

2 --

Q1

200

3 --

Q1

200

4 --

Q1

200

5 --

Q1

200

6 --

Q1

200

7 --

Q1

200

8 --

Q1

200

9 --

Q1

2010

--

Q1

2011

--

Q1

2012

--

Q1

2013

--

Q1

2014

--

Q1

2015

--

Q1

2016

--

Q1

2017

--

Q1

Fannie Mae* (60+ days)

Freddie Mac^ (60+ days)

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SERVICING RELEASES



CHART 3. Latest Delinquency Rates and Range Since 1996

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance CorporationSources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers,


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

CMBS Life Companies Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Banks & Thrifts

Latest

Range since 1996

64


SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS


CMBS Life Companies Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Banks & Thrifts(30+ days and REO) (60+ days) (60+ days) (60+days) (90+ days)

Year-end1999 -- Q4 0.50% 0.25% 0.12% 0.14% 0.71%2000 -- Q4 0.78% 0.28% 0.04% 0.04% 0.67%2001 -- Q4 1.20% 0.12% 0.33% 0.15% 0.90%2002 -- Q4 1.43% 0.28% 0.13% 0.13% 0.86%2003 -- Q4 1.68% 0.12% 0.13% 0.05% 0.78%2004 -- Q4 1.25% 0.08% 0.10% 0.06% 0.62%2005 -- Q4 0.80% 0.05% 0.27% 0.00% 0.53%2006 -- Q4 0.39% 0.02% 0.08% 0.05% 0.59%2007 -- Q4 0.39% 0.01% 0.08% 0.02% 0.85%2008 -- Q4 1.17% 0.07% 0.30% 0.01% 1.66%2009 -- Q4 5.68% 0.19% 0.63% 0.20% 3.94%2010 -- Q4 8.67% 0.19% 0.71% 0.26% 4.21%2011 -- Q4 8.51% 0.17% 0.59% 0.22% 3.58%2012 -- Q4 8.71% 0.08% 0.24% 0.19% 2.62%2013 -- Q4 6.86% 0.05% 0.10% 0.09% 1.70%2014 -- Q4 5.36% 0.08% 0.05% 0.04% 1.14%2015 -- Q4 4.73% 0.04% 0.07% 0.02% 0.73%2016 -- Q4 4.45% 0.02% 0.05% 0.03% 0.56%

Quarter-end2013 -- Q4 6.86% 0.05% 0.10% 0.09% 1.70%2014 -- Q1 6.15% 0.05% 0.10% 0.04% 1.58%2014 -- Q2 5.84% 0.08% 0.10% 0.02% 1.39%2014 -- Q3 5.60% 0.05% 0.09% 0.03% 1.28%2014 -- Q4 5.36% 0.08% 0.05% 0.04% 1.14%2015 -- Q1 5.17% 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 1.03%2015 -- Q2 4.99% 0.06% 0.05% 0.01% 0.90%2015 -- Q3 4.84% 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.82%2015 -- Q4 4.73% 0.04% 0.07% 0.02% 0.73%2016 -- Q1 3.87% 0.06% 0.06% 0.04% 0.73%2016 -- Q2 4.04% 0.11% 0.07% 0.02% 0.66%2016 -- Q3 4.23% 0.08% 0.07% 0.01% 0.62%2016 -- Q4 4.53% 0.04% 0.05% 0.03% 0.60%2017 -- Q1 4.45% 0.02% 0.05% 0.03% 0.56%


Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

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SERVICING RELEASES



APPENDIX A SOURCES & MEASURES OF DELINQUENCIES Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc. The delinquency rate for CMBS loans covers loans 30+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and real estate owned (REO). The CMBS rate is the only one to include REO in either the numerator or the denominator. This series includes all private-label (non-Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac issued) deals that are currently outstanding, including both fixed- and floating-rate deals. In reports released prior to Q3 2011, this series included only deals issued prior to 2009. Beginning with the Q3 2011 release all deals are included regardless of issue date. Life Companies Source: American Council of Life Insurers The delinquency rate for life insurance company loans covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. Fannie Mae Source: Fannie Mae Monthly Volume Summary and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Annual Reports to Congress The delinquency rate for multifamily loans either held in portfolio or securitized and guaranteed by the company covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. The company was unable to provide December delinquency figures for the years 2000 to 2004, so the fourth quarter numbers presented for those years are November, rather December, figures. In January 2011, Fannie Mae revised its 2010 monthly multifamily delinquency rates for all periods presented to exclude multifamily borrowers who have entered into a forbearance agreement and are abiding by the terms of the agreement, but had been previously included in the multifamily delinquency rates due to an error. Freddie Mac Source: Freddie Mac Monthly Volume Summary and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Annual Reports to Congress

The delinquency rate for multifamily loans either held in portfolio or securitized and guaranteed by the company covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. Freddie Mac notes that their delinquency rate “[e]xcludes mortgage loans whose original contractual terms have been modified under an agreement with the borrower as long as the borrower complies with the modified contractual terms.” As an example, after Hurricane Katrina, Freddie Mac modified a number of loans affected by the storms. In May 2010, Freddie Mac returned to reporting multifamily delinquencies as those loans 60+ days delinquent. FDIC-insured Banks & Thrifts Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation The delinquency rate for FDIC banks and thrifts covers loans 90+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure and in non-accrual status, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. The universe of loans covered by this series also includes a large number of “owner-occupied” commercial loans – loans supported by the income of the resident business rather than by rent and lease payments. In a 2007 analysis by MBA of the ten banks with the largest commercial mortgage portfolios, approximately half, in dollar volume, of their commercial (non-multifamily) loan portfolio was comprised of these “owner-occupied” properties. Data are available for life companies, FDIC-insured banks and thirfts, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since 1990 and CMBS since 1997.

66


SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) OUTSTANDING

Billions of Dollars


Percent change

U.S. CMBS OUTSTANDING

1998 77.98$ 97.11$ 107.97$ 129.60$ 1999 144.62$ 154.50$ 164.11$ 175.54$ 66.64$ 85% 15.02$ 33.9%2000 180.59$ 188.90$ 197.64$ 209.43$ 35.97$ 25% 5.05$ 10.0%2001 216.32$ 230.24$ 238.90$ 258.04$ 35.73$ 20% 6.89$ 9.5%2002 261.16$ 269.10$ 275.95$ 288.57$ 44.84$ 21% 3.12$ 9.3%2003 292.00$ 308.09$ 320.32$ 335.14$ 30.83$ 12% 3.43$ 5.8%2004 345.86$ 360.86$ 373.65$ 393.29$ 53.86$ 18% 10.71$ 8.0%2005 413.05$ 441.38$ 464.05$ 509.67$ 67.19$ 19% 19.76$ 10.5%2006 541.16$ 573.55$ 603.33$ 663.31$ 128.11$ 31% 31.49$ 16.6%2007 707.40$ 755.51$ 811.06$ 830.16$ 166.23$ 31% 44.09$ 17.2%2008 822.70$ 812.11$ 798.16$ 787.38$ 115.31$ 16% (7.45)$ 1.4%2009 778.26$ 765.82$ 754.77$ 743.97$ (44.45)$ -5% (9.13)$ -2.5%2010 731.48$ 715.83$ 700.43$ 693.85$ (46.78)$ -6% (12.49)$ -3.1%2011 682.55$ 666.46$ 652.78$ 639.86$ (48.93)$ -7% (11.29)$ -2.6%2012 623.66$ 610.20$ 598.60$ 596.12$ (58.90)$ -9% (16.20)$ -4.5%2013 597.70$ 594.73$ 585.40$ 580.58$ (25.96)$ -4% 1.57$ -0.2%2014 573.99$ 576.76$ 581.73$ 581.83$ (23.71)$ -4% (6.58)$ -1.9%2015 582.60$ 577.24$ 567.28$ 559.20$ 8.61$ 2% 0.78$ 0.1%2016 544.63$ 521.55$ 499.75$ 489.52$ (37.97)$ -7% (14.56)$ -4.0%2017 462.82$ (81.82)$ -15% (26.70)$ -7.4%

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc.

Q1 Year-Over-Year Change Q4-to-Q1 Change

In reports released prior to Q3 2011, this series included only deals issued prior to 2009. Beginning with the Q3 2011 release all deals are included regardless of issue date.

67


SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) OUTSTANDING

Billions of Dollars


$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

68


SERVICING RELEASES



COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) MARKET COMPOSITION

Composition of CMBS Outstanding, as of March 31, 2017

Total CMBS Outstanding 462.8$ billion

By Property Types:Office 28.3%Multifamily 8.9%Retail 30.9%Industrial 5.1%Hotel 14.7%Self-Storage 2.6%Healthcare 0.5%Other 9.0%

By Amortization:Fully Amortizing 30.9%All Interest-Only (IO) 69.1% Full Term IO 40.5% Part Term IO 28.6%

By Percent Defeased 3.3%

By Delinquency:Current 95.55%30-day delinquent 0.36%60-day delinquent 0.21%90+day delinquent 0.65%Foreclosure/REO 3.23%


Office, 28.3%

Multifamily, 8.9%

Retail, 30.9%

Industrial, 5.1%

Hotel, 14.7%

Self-Storage, 2.6%Healthcare, 0.5% Other, 9.0%

Fully Amortizing, 30.9%

Full Term IO, 40.5%

Part Term IO, 28.6%

69


SERVICING RELEASES



CMBS SPREADSCOMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS)NEW ISSUE SPREADS TO SWAP RATES(in Basis Points)

AAA CMBS SPREADS(in Basis Points)

Source: JP Morgan Securities

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

New Super Senior AAA Legacy Super Senior AAA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Super Senior AAA AA A BBB-

70


SERVICING RELEASES



CMBS AND OTHER SPREADSCommercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and selected other CRE mortgage bondsSpreads to Swap Rates

(in Basis Points)

New Issue CMBS

Super Senior AAA AA A BBB-

Legacy Super Senior AAA 10/9.5 DUS

10yr Freddie K

A1

End of Q4 2014 88 141 203 358 85 58 38End of Q1 2015 85 145 200 345 85 54 30End of Q2 2015 92 163 230 388 87 59 34End of Q3 2015 119 220 315 470 125 77 53End of Q4 2015 136 220 343 570 175 94 65End of Q1 2016 132 243 400 715 180 87 63End of Q2 2016 120 200 330 630 145 87 62End of Q3 2016 115 175 270 575 140 80 54End of Q4 2016 101 138 240 495 140 76 54

7-Apr-17 95 132 183 440 140 67 4413-Apr-17 95 134 183 435 140 67 4421-Apr-17 94 135 185 440 140 68 4628-Apr-17 90 133 175 380 140 68 465-May-17 92 133 175 365 140 68 4912-May-17 94 135 178 375 140 66 4919-May-17 93 140 185 385 140 68 4926-May-17 93 138 187 375 140 68 502-Jun-17 93 140 190 370 140 68 509-Jun-17 92 137 185 355 140 69 4616-Jun-17 92 135 183 358 140 70 46

Source: JP Morgan Securities

71


OUTSTANDINGENVIRONMENT SERVICINGPRODUCTION


RELEASESOUTLOOK

5. Recent Commercial/Multifamily Research Releases from MBA The following reports can be found at www.mba.org/crefresearch. If you have trouble locating these or other MBA reports, email [email protected]

MBA Forecasts Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations to Decline in 2017The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations will be down slightly in 2017, ending the year at $478 billion, a decrease of 3 percent from the 2016 volumes. Mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages are forecast at $206 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $245 billion.

6/22/2017

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Tops $3 TrillionTotal commercial/multifamily debt outstanding rose to $3.01 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2017, the first time it has broken the $3 trillion mark. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $1.17 trillion, an increase of $23.4 billion, or 2.0 percent, from the fourth of quarter of 2016.

6/13/2017

First Quarter Commercial/Multifamily Delinquencies Remain LowDelinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans were flat or decreased in the first quarter of 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

6/1/2017

Commercial/Multifamily Borrowing Up 9 Percent from Last YearAccording to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, first quarter 2017 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations increased 9 percent compared to the same period last year, and in line with the seasonality of market, first quarter originations were twenty-seven percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2016.

5/4/2017

72




RELEASESOUTLOOK

Mortgage Bankers’ Commercial/Multifamily Originations Totaled $491 Billion in 2016Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers closed $490.6 billion of loans in 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) 2016 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Annual Origination Volume Summation released today.

4/6/2017

MBA Releases 2016 Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Firms’ Origination VolumesAccording to a set of commercial/multifamily real estate finance league tables prepared by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Wells Fargo; JP Morgan Chase & Company; HFF, L.P.; Eastdil Secured; PNC Real Estate; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; Key Bank; Meridian Capital Group; Capital One Financial Corp.; and JLL were the top commercial/multifamily mortgage originators in 2016.

3/23/2017

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Ends Year Strong, Despite CMBS DeclineThe level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $46.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings. That is a 1.6 percent increase over the third quarter of 2016. On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2016 was $162.0 billion higher than at the end of 2015, an increase of 5.8 percent.

3/21/2017

Commercial/Multifamily Delinquencies Remain Low in Fourth Quarter, CMBS Continues to IncreaseDelinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans remained low in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

3/9/2017

MBA Releases 2016 Year-End Commercial/Multifamily Servicer RankingsThe Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers' volumes as of December 31, 2016. At the top of the list of firms is PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $517.5 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by Wells Fargo Bank N.A. with $505.2 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $221.7 billion, KeyBank National Association with $205.6 billion, and CBRE Loan Services with $112.0 billion.

2/20/2017

73




RELEASESOUTLOOK

Commercial and Multifamily Loan Maturities Down in 2017Ten percent, or $175.9 billion, of $1.7 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2017. This represents a 4 percent decrease from the $183.3 billion that matured in 2016, according to today's release of the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2016 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes.

2/20/2017

MBA Forecasts Growth in Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance in 2017The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations will grow to $515 billion in 2017, an increase of 3 percent from the 2016 estimated volumes of $502 billion. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages, specifically, are forecast at $219 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $267 billion.

2/20/2017

Year-over-Year Commercial Mortgage Originations Down in Q4Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 20 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2016, and were down seven percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. MBA's commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers' originations index provides a preliminary estimate that originations for the full year 2016 were one percent lower than in 2015.

2/20/2017

Survey: Commercial and Multifamily Originators Expect Strong, Steady Market in 2017Commercial and multifamily mortgage lending is expected to increase in 2017, as lenders' appetites to place new loans and borrowers' appetites to borrow both remain strong, according to a new Mortgage Bankers Association survey of the top commercial and multifamily mortgage origination firms. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of the top firms expect originations to increase in 2017, with one-quarter (26 percent) expecting an increase of 5 percent or more. A full half (50 percent) expect their own firm's originations to increase by 5 percent or more.

1/5/2017

3Q Commercial/Multifamily Delinquencies Remain Low, CMBS Up SlightlyDelinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans remained low in the third quarter of 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

12/7/2016

74




RELEASESOUTLOOK

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations to Grow by 4 Percent in 2017The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will grow to $537 billion in 2017, an increase of 4 percent from expected 2016 volumes of $515 billion. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $224 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $272 billion.

11/4/2016

Multifamily Lending Up 28 Percent in 2015In 2015, 2,855 different multifamily lenders provided a total of $249.8 billion in new mortgages for apartment buildings with five or more units, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) 2015 Annual Report on Multifamily Lending. The 2015 dollar volume represents a 28 percent increase from 2014 levels. Sixty-three percent of the active lenders made five or fewer multifamily loans over the course of the year.

10/20/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Continues To Grow Despite CMBS DeclineThe level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $39.9 billion in the second quarter of 2016, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Report released today.

9/20/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Delinquencies Remain Low in Second Quarter Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans remained low in the second quarter of 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

9/1/2016

MBA Releases 2016 Mid-Year Commercial/Multifamily Servicer RankingsThe Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers' volume as of June 30, 2016. At the top of the list is Wells Fargo Bank N.A. with $502.2 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $499.1 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $220.6 billion, KeyBank N.A. with $195.4 billion, and CBRE Loan Services with $108.3 billion.

9/1/2016

75




RELEASESOUTLOOK

Commercial/Multifamily Originations Remain StrongAccording to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, second quarter 2016 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were one percent higher than during the same period last year and 17 percent higher than the first quarter of 2016.

7/28/2016

MBA Releases Updated Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance ForecastThe Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will total $500 billion in 2016, roughly flat from the $504 billion originated in 2015 and slightly less than the record of $508 billion originated in 2007. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $210 billion in 2016, with total multifamily lending at $273 billion.

7/6/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Continues Strong GrowthThe level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $35.3 billion in the first quarter of 2016, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings. That is a 1.2 percent increase over the fourth quarter of 2015.

6/14/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Low, Record Decline for CMBS Loans Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans remained low in the first quarter of 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

6/7/2016

MBA Releases First Commercial/Multifamily Originations Data of 2016First quarter 2016 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations overall were essentially flat compared to the same period last year and first quarter originations were thirty-eight percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2015 in line with the seasonality of market, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations

4/28/2016

76




RELEASESOUTLOOK

Mortgage Bankers’ Commercial/Multifamily Originations Rise to Near-Record $504 Billion in 2015Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers closed $503.8 billion of loans in 2015 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) 2015 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Annual Origination Volume Summation.

4/7/2016

MBA Releases 2015 Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Firms’ Origination VolumesAccording to a set of commercial/multifamily real estate finance league tables prepared by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Wells Fargo; Eastdil Secured, JP Morgan Chase & Company; HFF, L.P.; Meridian Capital Group, LLC; Bank of America Merrill Lynch; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; PNC Real Estate; Key Bank; and Capital One Financial Corp. were the top commercial/multifamily mortgage originators in 2015.

3/22/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Grew at a Strong Pace in 2015The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased to $2.83 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2015, an increase of $59.7 billion, or 2.2 percent, over the third quarter, according to data collected by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2015 was $184.5 billion higher than at the end of 2014, an increase of 7.0 percent.

3/14/2016

MBA Releases Research Datanote on Sources of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage FinancingThe Mortgage Bankers Association(MBA) today released a Research Datanote titled Sources of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Financing in 2016. The paper provides an overview of the market and of some of the key issues that will shape lending in the near term.

3/8/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Delinquencies Remain LowDelinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.

3/3/2016

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RELEASESOUTLOOK

MBA Forecasts Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations to Hit New Record in 2016The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will grow to $511 billion in 2016, an increase of 3 percent from 2015 volumes and slightly more than the previous record of $508 billion originated in 2007. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $202 billion in 2016, with total multifamily lending at $262 billion.

2/1/2016

Volume of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgages Maturing Grows Fifty-One Percent Year-over-YearEleven percent or $183.3 billion of $1.7 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2016, a 51 percent increase from the $121.0 billion that matured in 2015, according to today's release of the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2015 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. Maturities will grow to $208 billion in 2017.

2/1/2016

Commercial/Multifamily Originations End the Year StrongCommercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 35 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2015, and were up 19 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. MBA's commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers' originations index provides a preliminary estimate that originations for the full year 2015 were 24 percent higher than in 2014.

2/1/2016

MBA Releases 2015 Year-End Commercial/Multifamily Servicer RankingsThe Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers' volumes as of December 31, 2015. At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo Bank N.A. with $501.5 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $485.2 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $225.0 billion, KeyBank N.A. with $195.7 billion, and GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. with $101.5 billion.

1/31/2016

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RELEASESOUTLOOK

New MBA Survey: Commercial and Multifamily Lenders Expect Strong 2016Commercial and multifamily mortgage lending is expected to increase in 2016, as lenders' and borrowers' appetites for new loans remain strong, according to a new Mortgage Bankers Association survey of the top commercial and multifamily mortgage origination firms.

1/7/2016

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