comments on “arctic state change: implications for governance” mostly yukon, nwt
TRANSCRIPT
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Comments on “Arctic State Change: Implications for Governance”
Mostly Yukon, NWT
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Outline of Presentation
1. Examples of State Change from the Yukon/NWT (2 minutes)
2. Comments on the paper “Arctic State Change” (4 minutes)
3. Predicting “state change” (1 minute)
4. Concluding Remarks/Questions (2 minutes)
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Chief Hyacinthe Andre, Gwich’in Chief 1948-1980
Born 1910
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State Changes: Examples Yukon
Caribou Herds in the Arctic Declines = Cod Fishery Declines in eastern Canada?
Examples:Chisana Herd: recovery programSouthern Lakes Caribou: recovery program40 Mile Herd: recovery program
THESE ARE SOMEWHAT DESPERATE MEASURES TAKEN TOO LATE
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Cultural Change: First Nations
Residential Schools resulted in a “state change” for FNs culture (the “tipping point”)
Land Claims Agreements/Devolution: “state changes” for governance
Was the Berger Inquiry a “tipping” point?
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The Six Waves of Change
Land ClaimsDevolution (Territorial empowerment)New Development Assessment ActsRegional Land Use PlanningSingle Resource Mgt Plans
Big Projects Finally Arriving? (Oil and Gas, Diamonds)
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Comments on the Paper
Change is not allows a “state change” (not allows a “broken hockey stick”)
What are the other types of change? (slow decline/or rises?)
Which types of change are applicable to the Arctic?
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Comments on the Paper
Late 1980-1990’s State Change: decoupling of the south/north: agreed
understates the emergence of the “self-determination” aspects of devolution/land claim/self government
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Comments on the Paper:
Agree with the current “state change” that is happening as a result of climate changes and globalization
Some doubt that future governance is either a ecosystem based management future or the re-emergence of the “great game” of power/control and resource exploitation
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Predicting “state changes”
If “state change” is irreversible then predicting it is very important
Example: Oil and Gas Development in the North Yukon Region
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North Yukon Planning Region
Example: Linear (Access) Density (km/km2)
Establishing Targets/Thresholds
Woodland Caribou population declines observed
R2 = 0.8918
EAGLE PLAINSTODAY
EAGLE PLAINSFUTURE??
Ecological risk increases as you increase linear density – where do we want to be along the “development curve”?
Source: Salmon 200613
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Concluding Thoughts/Questions
Is governance “state change” irreversible”?
Could not the Russians and the American’s enter into another “Cold War”
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Concluding Thoughts/Questions
It is worth asking “what is not changing?”
Do a series of “state changes” lead to a “system transformation”?
The Arctic is going through many “state changes” … is this leading to a “system transformation?”
“When will the Arctic not be the Arctic?”