commentary for first quarter 2020commentary for first quarter 2020 the g5|20 series portfolios are...

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Commentary for First Quarter 2020 The G5|20 Series portfolios are managed by CI Multi-Asset Management, with Fiera Capital Corporation as Portfolio Sub-advisor responsible for executing the risk management strategy. Market performance As we entered the first quarter of 2020, markets appeared to be in a comfortable place between controlled inflation and a sustained economic expansion. Stocks globally reached new highs in February even though China locked down Hubei due to the coronavirus and manufacturing activity contracted substantially. The consensus was that the virus would not be widespread, manufacturing would re-open and any economic damage would be offset by central government programs. By mid-February, the spread of COVID-19 began to impact global markets as risky assets started to decline. Intraday volatility increased significantly, reversing the tone set in the prior weeks. As fears of the fast-spreading COVID-19 hit the market, panic set in. The last week of February saw the S&P 500 Index fall 11.5%. Investors quickly realized in March that the virus would be more widespread as the World Health Organization officially declared the outbreak a pandemic, amid rapid increases in new cases around the globe and deaths in G7 nations. The first two weeks of March combined for an additional 8.2% decline in the S&P 500 Index, becoming the fastest-ever bear market for the 63-year-old index. It goes without saying that intraday volatility levels throughout this episode were extremely high. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility, went from approximately 14 to 53 during the quarter, reaching highs above 82. To put things into context, the VIX averaged under 14 in Q4 2019 and was trading around there until mid-February. It is extremely difficult to model economic impacts attributed to a new virus outbreak as there is no way to determine when and how it will end. As with other major events in history, investors tend to focus on worst-case scenarios, as was seen by March’s dramatic decline in stock prices. Other investments such as corporate bonds, government bonds and gold bullion were also dumped for cash. Suddenly, it was a buyers’ market. U.S. markets, as measured by the S&P 500 Index in Canadian-dollar terms, performed relatively well due to an 8.3% gain in the U.S. dollar for the quarter. Canada felt even more pain as oil prices fell over 60% in a matter of days when Saudi Arabia raised oil production at a time when demand was already declining. Markets stabilized somewhat when central banks started cutting interest rates and launching quantitative easing measures, and governments announced subsidies to individuals and businesses, as well as other stimulus programs. Globally, there were over 300 “rescue” measures announced, the size and speed of which were unprecedented.

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Commentary for First Quarter 2020The G5|20 Series portfolios are managed by CI Multi-Asset Management, with Fiera Capital Corporation as Portfolio Sub-advisor responsible for executing the risk management strategy.

Market performance

As we entered the first quarter of 2020, markets appeared to be in a comfortable place between controlled inflation and a sustained economic expansion. Stocks globally reached new highs in February even though China locked down Hubei due to the coronavirus and manufacturing activity contracted substantially. The consensus was that the virus would not be widespread, manufacturing would re-open and any economic damage would be offset by central government programs. By mid-February, the spread of COVID-19 began to impact global markets as risky assets started to decline. Intraday volatility increased significantly, reversing the tone set in the prior weeks. As fears of the fast-spreading COVID-19 hit the market, panic set in. The last week of February saw the S&P 500 Index fall 11.5%.

Investors quickly realized in March that the virus would be more widespread as the World Health Organization officially declared the outbreak a pandemic, amid rapid increases in new cases around the globe and deaths in G7 nations. The first two weeks of March combined for an additional 8.2% decline in the S&P 500 Index, becoming the fastest-ever bear market for the 63-year-old index.

It goes without saying that intraday volatility levels throughout this episode were extremely high. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility, went from approximately 14 to 53 during the quarter, reaching highs above 82. To put things into context, the VIX averaged under 14 in Q4 2019 and was trading around there until mid-February.

It is extremely difficult to model economic impacts attributed to a new virus outbreak as there is no way to determine when and how it will end. As with other major events in history, investors tend to focus on worst-case scenarios, as was seen by March’s dramatic decline in stock prices. Other investments such as corporate bonds, government bonds and gold bullion were also dumped for cash. Suddenly, it was a buyers’ market. U.S. markets, as measured by the S&P 500 Index in Canadian-dollar terms, performed relatively well due to an 8.3% gain in the U.S. dollar for the quarter. Canada felt

even more pain as oil prices fell over 60% in a matter of days when Saudi Arabia raised oil production at a time when demand was already declining.

Markets stabilized somewhat when central banks started cutting interest rates and launching quantitative easing measures, and governments announced subsidies to individuals and businesses, as well as other stimulus programs. Globally, there were over 300 “rescue” measures announced, the size and speed of which were unprecedented.

Benchmark returns in % at March 31, 20203 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years

S&P/TSX Composite Index -20.9 -14.2 -2.2 0.9 4.1

S&P 500 Index (C$) -12.1 -1.3 7.2 9.1 14.3

MSCI World Index (C$) -13.6 -4.4 4.5 6.2 10.8

FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index 1.6 4.5 3.7 2.7 4.3

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FTSE

After interest rates rose in the fourth quarter of 2019, government 10-year yields reached all-time lows as government bonds fulfilled their “safe haven” role by generating positive returns to offset equity weakness. However, there were a few volatile days in the quarter when government bonds sold with risky assets. Uncertainty about the ability of companies to meet their debt obligations caused credit spreads to rise to the highest levels since the financial crisis in 2008-09. Central banks cut interest rates to near zero and initiated or increased asset purchasing programs and credit facilities to keep debt markets solvent.

Q1 Fixed Income Return

-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%

Canadian Fixed Income U.S. Fixed Income Global Government Bonds High Yield Fixed Income

1.6%

13.2%

3.1%

13.2%

4.4%

-4.6%

-13.1%

CAD

Local Currency

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Morningstar, Trading Economics. As at March 31, 2020. Canadian Fixed Income (FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index), Global Government Bonds (JPM GBI Global TR CAD), U.S. Fixed Income (BBgBarc U.S. Agg Bond TR USD), High Yield Fixed Income (ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield TR USD).

G5|20 Series Performance

We were positive on our 2020 economic and market outlook based on some leading indicators and announcements in 2019 that included a phase-one trade agreement between the U.S. and China, and interest rate cuts in the U.S. No one was able to foresee the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as the outbreak spread in China, we became more cautious on our economic and market outlook.

Underlying equity portfolios returns in % at March 31, 20203 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years

Select Canadian Equity Managed Corporate Class (Class A) -23.3 -17.8 -6.9 -3.3 3.1

Select U.S. Equity Managed Corporate Class (Class A) -19.6 -11.5 -0.7 1.3 7.8

Select International Equity Managed Corporate Class (Class A) -19.8 -14.8 -3.8 -0.5 3.8

Source: CI Investments Inc.

The second half of the first quarter was a tremendously challenging environment for G5|20 Series with both interest rate and equity markets declining simultaneously. G5|20 Series is impacted by declining rates because the remaining guaranteed future cash flows are discounted at a lower rate and this increases the value at which the Funds’ assets are required to shift to the Protection Portfolio. The Protection Portfolio comes into effect when all the Fund’s assets are shifted to a portfolio of fixed-income securities issued by the Canadian federal and/or provincial governments and cash equivalents to ensure that sufficient assets will be available to make all guaranteed distributions and pay fees.

In order to maintain the Funds’ ability to pay future obligations, the Risk Management Overlay (RMO) delivered crucial protection, quickly adjusting equity exposure by significantly increasing the short equity exposure when volatility started to rise. Equity assets were later moved to fixed income to protect the Funds as markets continued to deteriorate. These actions resulted in relatively good performance and enabled the Funds to avoid the Protection Portfolio. Below is a comparison of the March 31, 2020 net equity exposure to that of December 31, 2019.

Net Equity Exposure Fund Code (Class A) Tranche December 31 2019 March 31 2020 Difference

5000 G5|20 2038 Q3 47.4% 5.6% -41.8%

5001 G5|20 2038 Q4 65.1% 8.8% -56.3%

5003 G5|20 2039 Q2 38.9% 3.3% -35.6%

5004 G5|20 2039 Q3 35.3% 2.8% -32.5%

5006 G5|20 2040 Q1 41.1% 2.5% -38.6%

5009 G5|20 2040 Q4 67.4% 8.7% -58.7%

2006 G5|20i 2035 Q1 41.9% 1.9% -40.0%

2007 G5|20i 2035 Q2 54.1% 6.2% -47.9%

2010 G5|20i 2036 Q1 62.2% 1.7% -60.5%

2011 G5|20i 2036 Q2 61.3% 2.0% -59.3%

Source: CI Investments Inc.

Over the remainder of the quarter, the RMO optimized the equity exposure to ensure the Funds maintained an adequate hedge. The Canadian dollar depreciated significantly over the period, which contributed positively to the performance of the RMO as the hedge instruments are mostly denominated in U.S. dollars.

Performance (in %) for Class A as of March 31, 2020

Fund Code (Class A) Tranche 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

Since Inception Inception Date

5000 CI G5l20 2038 Q3 Fund -5.2 -3.9 -2.1 -0.1 0.4 N/A 2.7 28-Jun-13

5001 CI G5l20 2038 Q4 Fund -9.9 -7.7 -6.8 -1.9 -0.9 N/A 1.0 26-Sep-13

5003 CI G5l20 2039 Q2 Fund -3.0 -2.8 -1.4 -0.3 -0.1 N/A 1.0 9-May-14

5004 CI G5l20 2039 Q3 Fund -2.2 -2.4 -1.5 -0.4 -0.1 N/A 1.3 2-Jul-14

5006 CI G5|20 2040 Q1 Fund -4.0 -3.2 -1.2 -0.4 -1.0 N/A -0.9 2-Jan-15

5009 CI G5l20 2040 Q4 Fund -9.5 -7.4 -6.5 -1.9 N/A N/A 0.0 1-Oct-15

2006 CI G5|20i 2035 Q1 Fund -4.4 -3.7 -1.5 -0.4 -1.1 N/A -1.0 2-Jan-15

2007 CI G5l20i 2035 Q2 Fund -5.8 -4.4 -2.5 -0.7 N/A N/A -0.9 1-Apr-15

2010 CI G5l20i 2036 Q1 Fund -8.5 -6.9 -5.5 -2.0 N/A N/A -0.5 2-Jan-16

2011 CI G5l20i 2036 Q2 Fund -8.7 -7.3 -6.0 -2.1 N/A N/A -1.0 1-Apr-16

Source: CI Investments Inc.

Outlook and portfolio positioning

The good news is that once the spread of COVID-19 moderates, we expect most consumer activities to return. The bad news is that consumers have become cautious. Until there is a safe vaccine, lifestyles will be different and a portion of consumption and spending will be suspended for a longer time period. We believe that we are likely priced for an outcome worse than what will actually transpire, so some stability and market recovery should be expected.

Neutral weight refers to the targeted strategic asset allocation for the portfolios. Overweight/underweight is the amount the current asset allocation differs from the neutral weighting.

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

UNDERWEIGHT

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

OVERWEIGHT

Cash

Government bonds

Investment-grade bonds

High-yield bonds

Canadian equity

U.S. equity

International equity

Gold

Short-term results remain unclear as they depend on consumer confidence and the evolution of the pandemic, something markets appear to have priced in. As long as the pandemic doesn’t worsen, further downside should be limited. In the meantime, central banks and governments are doing whatever they can to avoid a deep recession. The fiscal and monetary policy actions announced over the past few weeks are significant. In our view, the monetary policy packages (which include unlimited quantitative easing) will:

• Unclog contagion in credit markets • Support bond prices and potentially restore negative correlation between government bonds and stocks • Increase inflationary pressures • Lead to a weaker U.S. dollar as dollar supply increases.

The markets staged a mini rally at the end of March and the implied volatility (VIX) decreased but remained at relatively high levels. Market participants expect volatility to remain high for some time as investors have been using puts to hedge their downside risk rather than buying upside through the purchase of call options. We are not macroeconomists, but we foresee equity markets continuing to be volatile in the months to come as new information on COVID-19 and its impact on the economy is revealed.

Despite our efforts, these unprecedented markets have forced the G5|20 Series funds much closer to the Protection Portfolio. The conservative asset allocation, principally in fixed income, required to prevent the Funds from going to the Protection Portfolio severely limits any growth and will likely remain conservative going forward.

Position summary as of March 31, 2020

Fund Code (Class A) Tranche NAV Gross Equity Fixed Income Cash

Gross Equity & Fixed Income

Net Equity Exposure

5000 G5|20 2038 Q3 $11.10 17.3% 79.6% 3.1% 96.9% 5.6%5001 G5|20 2038 Q4 $10.01 33.2% 63.0% 3.8% 96.2% 8.8%5003 G5|20 2039 Q2 $10.22 18.0% 78.3% 3.7% 96.3% 3.3%5004 G5|20 2039 Q3 $10.48 16.9% 78.4% 4.7% 95.3% 2.8%5006 G5|20 2040 Q1 $9.53 18.7% 80.6% 0.7% 99.3% 2.5%5009 G5|20 2040 Q4 $9.99 33.5% 62.4% 4.1% 95.9% 8.7%2006 G5|20i 2035 Q1 $7.01 17.8% 79.8% 2.5% 97.5% 1.9%2007 G5|20i 2035 Q2 $7.25 17.4% 80.6% 2.0% 98.0% 6.2%2010 G5|20i 2036 Q1 $7.89 27.8% 66.8% 5.3% 94.7% 1.7%2011 G5|20i 2036 Q2 $7.83 33.2% 62.4% 4.4% 95.6% 2.0%

Source: CI Investments Inc.

We hope you and your family are keeping well and are taking comfort in the fact that your financial health is being managed by your financial advisor and our team. It can be challenging to go through an event of this severity but this one, like others, shall pass.

Source: CI Multi-Asset Management, Fiera Capital Corporation, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and CI Investments Inc. as at April 7, 2020.

20-04-86951_E (05/20)

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Client Services 1-800-792-9355

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns net of fees and expenses payable by the fund (except for figures of one year or less, which are simple total returns) including changes in security value and reinvestment of all dividends/distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

This document is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal, legal, accounting, tax or investment advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Every effort has been made to ensure that the material contained in this document is accurate at the time of publication. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. All charts and illustrations in this document are for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to predict or project investment results. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment. Investors should consult their professional advisors prior to implementing any changes to their investment strategies. The opinions expressed in the communication are solely those of the author and are not to be used or construed as investment advice or as an endorsement or recommendation of any entity or security discussed. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment. Investors should consult their professional advisors prior to implementing any changes to their investment strategies. Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what CI Investments Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither CI Investments Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

CI Multi-Asset Management is a division of CI Investments Inc.

©CI Investments Inc. 2020. All rights reserved.

Published May 4, 2020.