1. ( ) MISSION. O/O C/JTF DEPLOYS TO AZERBAIJAN TO DETER AHURASTAN AGGRESSION. BE

PREAPARED TO DEFEAT AHURASTAN ATTACK INTO AZERBAIJAN. BE PREPARED TO CONDUCT POST-

COMBAT STABILITY OPERATIONS.

2. ( ) SITUATION AND COURSES OF ACTION

A. ( ) THE TRANSCAUCASUS/CASPIAN REGION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE FOLLOWING EXPLOSION

DAMAGE TO THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN (BTC) PIPELINE FOR AN ANTICIPATED TWO MONTHS; ATTACKS

ON US, UK, AND CANADIAN EMBASSIES IN BAKU. ATTACKS WERE CARRIED OUT BY AZERI

FUNDAMENTALISTS, BELIEVED TO BE MEMBERS OF THE SOUTH AZERI PEOPLES ARMY (SAPA) IN

JANUARY 2017. THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) SECURITY COUNCIL HAS AUTHORIZED A CHAPTER VI

PEACEKEEPING FORCE FOR THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH (N-K) REGION. UN HAS DEPLOYED A BDE SIZED

FORCE TO THE N-K REGION AND ESTABLISHED THE UN INTERIM ADMINISTRATION MISSION. UN FORCES

ARE COMPOSED OF FORCES FROM ITALY, RUSSIA, GERMANY, IRELAND, AND BELIGIUM. CLASHES

BETWEEN GEORGIAN MILITARY AND ABKHAZIA MILITIA CONTINUE. US AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN

(AZ) HAS ORDERED THE DEPARTURE OF DEPENDENTS AND NON-ESSENTIAL EMBASSY PERSONNEL FROM

BAKU AS WELL AS HUMANITARIAN AND CIVIC ASSISTANCE UNITS OPERATING IN THE COUNTRY. IT IS

ANTICIPATED THAT OTHER WESTERN EMBASSIES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY, US

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ASSETS HAVE DETECTED INCREASE MOVEMENT OF SPECIAL PURPOSE FORCES

FROM AHURASTAN (AH) INTO AZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF AZERBAIJAN (GOAZ) HAS BEEN ADVISED OF

THIS INTELLIGENCE. ALL ACTIONS HAVE RESULTED IN AN INCREASED LEVEL OF TENSION ACROSS THE

REGION.

B. ( ) ASSIGNED AND SUPPORTING FORCES ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT CJCS WARNORD

REF TO EUCOM CONPLAN 4567-15

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C. ( ) COMMANDER, EUCOM COMMAND HAS DEVELOPED THE FOLLOWING COURSES OF ACTIONS

(COAs)

(1) () COA 1. UNDER THE AUSPICES OF A COMBINED JOINT EXERCISE OF CONPLAN 4567-15, AN AETF HQ

AND SUPPORTING LOGISTICAL ENABLERS WILL DEPLOY TO JOA AND ESTABLISH JFACC OPERATIONS.

APPROXIMATELY N+7, MEU CONDUCTS JOINT AMPHIBIOUS EXERCISES AND SETS CONDITIONS FOR

DEPLOYMENT OF FOLLOW-ON GROUND FORCES. REMAINING FORCES MOBILIZE AND BEGIN

MOVEMENT TO JOA. AT APPROXIMATELY N+60, MEB, SBCT, IBCT, AND 1 HBCT DEPLOY INTO THEATER,

DEFEND AZ TERRITORY, AND DEFEAT AH ATTACK. ON ORDER COALITION FORCES WILL COUNTER-

ATTACK TO DESTROY AH FORCES AND RESTORE AZ PRE-CONFLICT BORDER. UPON CONCLUSION OF

HOSTILITIES, COALITION FORCES CONDUCT PEACE AND STABILITY OPERATIONS. BE PREPARED TO

TRANSITION AND REDEPLOY.

(2) () COA2. THE MARINE EXPEDITIONARY BRIGADE (MEB) AND STRIKER BRIGADE COMBAT TEAM (SBCT)

SIMULTANEOUSLY CROSS THE AZ /GEORGIA BORDER. DURING SHAPING OPERATIONS ESTABLISHMENT

OF SPOD IN PORT P’OT’I, APOD IN TBILISI, SF GROUP(-) CONDUCTING FID TO MOBILIZE AZ FORCES IN

DEFENSE OF BORDER AND BAKU, AND THE BUILD UP OF FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN REGION ARE

PARAMOUNT. DURING SUSTAINMENT OPERATIONS, ONE SUSTAINMENT BDE CONDUCTS PORT

OPENING AND OPERATIONS, ANOTHER CONDUCTS THEATER DISTRIBUTION FROM TBILISI, WHILE A

THIRD CONDUCTS OVERALL FORCE SUSTAINMENT IN GANCA. THE FLOW OF FORCES INTO AZ WILL

SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR ATTACK. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF ATTACK ON SPOD, APOD, AND LOC

INFRASTRUCTURE WHICH WILL SLOW THE FLOW OF FORCES INTO THEATER AND JEOPARDIZE FURTHER

OPERATIONS.

3. ( ) ANALYSIS OF OPPOSING COA.

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