Coming together or coming apart?America and the 2012 election

John Mark Hansen

March 2012

Vote on Affordable Care Act, 2010

The debt-ceiling crisis, 2011

In general, do you think the elected officials in Washington

who have dealt with the debt ceil-ing in the past few days have be-

haved mostly like responsible adults or mostly like spoiled

children?

Spoiled childrenResponsible adults

Exodus of the moderates

Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), 2010

"There is too much partisanship and not enough progress -- too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving. Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples' business is not being done."

Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Me.), 2012

"It's a reflection of the political dynamic in America, where we don't look at America as a whole. We look at it through the red and blue prism. [We have a] Senate and an overall process that lends itself to dysfunction and political paralysis that doesn't allow problems to be solved."

Polarization in U.S. government

Structure of U.S. governmentPresident of the United States435 United States Representatives100 United States Senators

Support for the President’s policies by party

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

House of Representatives

Democratic support Republican support

Ideology by party in the House, 1967

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1 -0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0 0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1 1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

010

203040

5060

7080

Ideological distribution 90th Congress

Democrats RepublicansDW-Nominate score

Ideology by party in the House, 1967 & 2007

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1 -0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0 0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1 1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ideological distribution110th Congress

Democrats Republicans

DW-Nominate score-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1 -0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0 0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1 1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

010

203040

5060

7080

Ideological distribution 90th Congress

Democrats RepublicansDW-Nominate score

Polarization in the U.S. electorate

Ideology in the U.S. electorate (ANES)

Liberal Moderate Conservative0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ideology 1972-1976

Liberal Moderate Conservative0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ideology 2004-2008

Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party

Liberal Moderate Conservative0

10

20

30

40

50

1974-1976

Democrats Republicans

Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party (ANES)

Liberal Moderate Conservative0

10

20

30

40

50

1974-1976

Democrats RepublicansLiberal Moderate Conservative

0

10

20

30

40

50

2004-2008

Democrats Republicans

Public approval of the President’s job performance by party (Gallup)

Democrats Republicans

Polarization and elections

The Election Fundamentals

•Presidential performance▫Condition of the economy▫Condition of foreign affairs

•Incumbency•Baseline partisanship of the electorate

•Positioning of the candidates on the issues

Obama’s challenges Baseline partisanship of the electorate (ANES)

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Democrats Republicans Independents

Obama’s challenges Positioning of candidates on the issues (ANES)

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Nixon Carter Reagan Reagan Bush I Clinton Clinton Bush II Bush II Obama

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Republican closer Same distance Democrat closer

Obama’s challenges Approval of job performance

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 7540

45

50

55

60

Approval of incumbent's job per-formance

Incu

mbe

nt p

arty

per

cent

of

tw

o-pa

rty

vote

Obama’s challenges and advantages Condition of the economy

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.040

45

50

55

60

Change in real disposable income per capita

Incu

mbe

nt p

arty

per

cent

of

tw

o-pa

rty

vote

Obama’s advantages Condition of foreign affairs

•At peace▫Withdrawal from Iraq▫Withdrawal from Afghanistan

•Successful operations▫Osama bin Laden▫Libya▫Egypt

Obama’s advantages Incumbency

Incumbent Winners Incumbent Losers• George W. Bush• Bill Clinton• Ronald Reagan• Richard M Nixon• Lyndon B Johnson• Dwight Eisenhower• Harry S Truman• Franklin D Roosevelt

• George H W Bush• Jimmy Carter• Gerald Ford

10 successes in 13 attempts (77 percent)

Congress: Senate

Class I Senators•Elected in 2006 or special elections since

Partisan composition▫21 Democrats (6 retiring)▫10 Republicans (3 retiring)▫2 Independents (1 retiring)

Congress: House of Representatives

Congress

Years

Republican-held Obama districts

(Obama plurality in 08)

Democratic-held McCain districts

(McCain plurality in 08) >20 10-20 5-10 0-5 0-5 5-10 10-20 >20

111th 2009-11 3 5 10 15 16 10 11 12 112th 2011-12 1 15 21 25 3 3 5 1

And then what?

If a Republican wins …

•Continued polarization•Less urgency for debt reduction and

spending cuts•Tit for tat: No incentive for congressional

Democrats to cooperate•Strains on the Republican electoral

coalition

Partisanship of electorate by birth cohort

Be-fore

1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 19810

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Democratic Independent Republican

Birth cohort (decade starting in year)

If Obama wins …

•Continued polarization•No “mandate”•Fewer incentives for sabotage•Shared responsibility•Necessity: The double witching hour

Federal budget timeline

Impact of sequestrations under Budget Control Act of 2011 (New York Times 22 July 2011)

Coming together – in spite of ourselves

Coming together or coming apart?America and the 2012 election

John Mark Hansen

March 2012

2008 and 2010 elections in historical context

House seats lost in midterm elections since 1900

Seats lost

Election President Party

77 1922 Harding Republican 71 1938 F Roosevelt Democratic 63 2010 Obama Democratic 61 1914 Wilson Democratic 57 1910 Taft Republican 55 1942 F Roosevelt Democratic 52 1930 Hoover Republican 52 1994 Clinton Democratic 48 1958 Eisenhower Republican 48 1974 Ford Republican

Car

ter

Rea

gan

Rea

gan

Bus

h I

Clin

ton

Clin

ton

Bus

h II

Bus

h II

Oba

ma

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

40

45

50

55

60

Winner's share of popular vote

Support for the President’s policies by party

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Senate

Democratic support Republican support

Party Unity votes in Congress19

53

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

House Senate

Relation of congressional and presidential voting

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Split House districts Split Senate seats

Hou

se d

istr

icts

Sena

te s

eats

Obama’s challenges and advantages Perception of candidates’ positions on the issues

Probability of vote margin (Silver)

20+ 15-20 10-15 5-10 0-5 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20+Republican Obama

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Romney Santorum

Latino vote for Democratic and Republican nominees, 1972 – 2008

01020304050607080

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996200020042008Democratic Republican

State partisanship and net benefit from government

0.55 0.75 0.95 1.15 1.35 1.55 1.75 1.9535

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Return per dollar of taxes

2004

Bus

h vo

te

NM

MS

AK

LAWV

ND

AL

NV

NJ

CT IL CA

NY

MA

NH

MNDE

CO

UT

VA

MT

KY SD