colloquium on innovation, high-tech sectors and knowledge space by sandrine kergroach
TRANSCRIPT
THE OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016
Knowledge Exchange colloquium on Innovation, High-tech sectors and Knowledge Space
Sandrine KergroachOECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation
31 March 2017Glasgow, United Kingdom
1
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
“What’s new in the field of science, technology and innovation policy? “
International review based on latestpolicy information and indicators
Unique policy questionnaire
A 20-year tradition. Every 2 years.
New in 2016’s edition:
10-15 year horizon scan
Megatrends for STI
Key emerging technologies
Future research systems
2
ONLINE CONTENT
~ 40 policy profiles
Cross-country comparison of key STI policy orientation,
instruments and governance
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
3
BOOK and eBOOK
Megatrends for STI
Future technology trends
The future of science systems
Recent trends in STI policies
International benchmarking and recent national STI policy
developments
52 country profiles
ONLINE CONTENT
STI e-Outlook
STI Policy mapping Statistical platform
ONLINE INFRASTRUCTURES
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
4
8 Megatrends for STI
5
Megatrends& Technology
Trends for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Urgency of policy action
Science and innovation are key
6
Changing demand for innovation
• Ageing societies, areas of population growth (esp. Africa) and a growing middle class (esp. Asia) will impact innovation demand and markets.
• Societal shifts in behaviours and expectations are expected as well.
Changing supply factors
• Materials less abundant => STI for less resource-intensive production and a circular economy.
• Different labour profiles required => new STI and complementary skills.
• Fast-changing portfolios of productive assets, i.e. new technologies, new practices in management, marketing, datasets (‘big data’) etc.
Changing context for R&D
• Need for interdisciplinarity, international R&D cooperation, international technology diffusion, public-private partnerships.
• BUT greater inter-state competition and insecurity could lead to protectionism, and a slowdown in international R&D cooperation and technology diffusion.
What do these challenges mean for STI and policies?
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
10 Emerging Technology Trends
NanomaterialsAdditive manufacturing
Advanced materials
Advanced energy storagetech.
Micro and nanosatellites
Energy and environment
Blockchain
Artificial intelligence (IA)
Internet of Things (IoT)
Big Data and analytics
Neurotechnologies
Synthetic biology
Biotechnologies
7
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Digital
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
10 Emerging Technology
Trends8
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Launch history and projection for nano- and microsatellites, 2009-20
10
(re)Distributing the benefits
• Technological change creates winners & losers. Policy should address distribution effects and ensure inclusive access to new technology-based benefits (e.g. training, competition policy, etc.).
• Support to technology diffusion, e.g. through extension services, is often as important as novel technology development.
Good policy governance
• Emerging technologies carry several risks and uncertainties – how should they be governed?
• Addressing issues related to security, privacy, integrity and ethics.
• International cooperation is key.
Support to public research
• Public research plays pivotal roles in underpinning all of these technologies by producing new knowledge and nurturing skills.
• Fostering open science to improve efficiency and effectiveness of public R&D.
How can we realise the potential of these technologies?
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
11
Megatrends& Technology
Trends for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Capacity of governments to intervene?
Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?)
Urgency of policy action
Science and innovation are key
12
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
R&D has fallen behind other policy priorities in many countries
Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds; OECD National Accounts Database.
Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of total government expenditures, 2000 and 2015
13
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Public R&D budgets are likely to plateau around current ratios
Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of GDP
Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Could increasingly generous R&D tax incentives jeopardize our fundamental research?
Change in R&D tax costs (% annual growth) and the share of public support going to firms (% point) , 2006-14 or nearest years available
Source: Based on OECD R&D Tax Incentive Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/rd-tax-stats.htm, July 2016; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.htm, June 2016; OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.
There is emerging evidence of more public support going to firms – and away from public research -
due to more generous R&D tax incentives
More support given to firms (and less to public research)
More generous tax concessions
15
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Public research has shifted towards universities …
Public R&D, OECD, % of GDP
Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, June 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.
Higher
education
Government
Funding by industry, OECD, USD million 2010 PPP
… that are increasingly relying onprivate funding
16
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
The trend is poised to last: STI policy is focusing on immediate economic imperatives
and policy efficiency gains
Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database
STI policy priority index, 2016 compared to 2014
17
Megatrends& Technology
Trends for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Capacity of governments to intervene?
Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?)
Shaping future R&D and innovation policy agendas?
Opening science
Building international cooperation
Urgency of policy action
Science and innovation are key
18
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
More responsible R&I policies encourage a greater intertwining of science and citizen
Policy mix for addressing societal challenges
Gender balance
Building an innovation
culture
New RRI governance arrangements
Percentage of policy initiatives newly introduced, substantially revised or repealed over the period 2014-16
Source: Based on country responses to the EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database
19
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Open science is on the march
Number of papers, 2000-13
Source: Based on Laakso, M. and B.-C. Björk (2012), “Anatomy of open access publishing: A study of longitudinal development and internal structure”, BMC Medicine, Vol. 10, p. 124, http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/124, and website of the Open Access Scholarly Publications Association (OASPA), http://oaspa.org/growth-of-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/.
International knowledge networks are more diverse
20Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013: Innovation for Growth, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2013-en.
Internationally co-authored articles
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
21
Highest expected citation impact of scientific authors by mobility profileBased on the median Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) score of 2013, mobility patterns over 1996-2013
Source: OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en.
International mobility is a major channel for knowledge circulation, if not the first
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Returnees Outflows
22
http://oe.cd/STIOutlook
• Global megatrends and societal challenges highlight the need for some big solutions and radical changes, including in our STI policies.
• There is a risk of greater protectionism that could threaten future international cooperation for R&D and innovation and international mobility.
• At the same time, new and emerging technologies will have a deep impact on economies and societies. Although we can already anticipate their disruption, it is still difficult to know precisely what form and scale this will take.
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
• There are serious concerns about declining public funding for R&D and innovation, and the situation could deteriorate further with austerity and ageing societies.
23
http://oe.cd/STIOutlook
Insights on the UK
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Country Profile
24
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Country Profile
Sluggish growth in labour productivity GDP per hour worked, index 2005=100
Source: Based on OECD productivity database.
Brexit comes after several years of very sluggish labour productivity growth and raises uncertainty on future economic growth
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Country Profile
Cross-country investments in intellectual assets,Gross fixed capital formation, intellectual property products, index 2007=100
Source: Based on the OECD National Accounts Database, July 2016.
… Whereas there are signs of levelling off in many countries…
… and growing cross-country gaps
Divergences across the OECD Intra-European divergences
Yet UK investment in knowledge-based capital has increased steadily over the past decade…
26
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Country Profile
Source:OECD (2016), "Germany", in OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en
Business R&D is driven by large domestic firms and
foreign affiliates
… which R&D has increased substantially over the past decade
27
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Major focus areas of new Productivity and Competition Plans include: maintaining research excellence, promoting innovation and …
Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (index median = 100)
Source: OECD (2016), "Germany", in OECD STI Outlook 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en
Country Profile
28
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Source: OECD (2016), "Germany", in OECD STI Outlook 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_in_outlook-2016-61-en
Country Profile
28
Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (Index median = 100)
… Strengthening the interface between universities and industry.
29
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Promoting R&D in domestic firms and manufacturing industries is a particular challenge for the UK
Most relevant policy instruments of funding for business R&D, 2016Country self-assessment, index (9 = high and increasing relevance to 0 = not used)
Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database
Country Profile
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
30
Thank you for your attentionPlease see the participant’s package for further details
Contact us at [email protected]
http://oe.cd/STIOutlook
https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti/e-outlook