colgate university discussion materials prepared for investment banking february 19, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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Bank of America Corporation and its affiliates (collectively, the “BAC Group”) comprise a full service securities firm and commercial bank engaged in securities, commodities and derivatives trading, foreign exchange and other brokerage activities, and principal investing as well as providing investment, corporate and private banking, asset and investment management, financing and strategic advisory services and other commercial services and products to a wide range of corporations, governments and individuals, domestically and offshore, from which conflicting interests or duties, or a perception thereof, may arise. In the ordinary course of these activities, parts of the BAC Group at any time may invest on a principal basis or manage funds that invest, make or hold long or short positions, finance positions or trade or otherwise effect transactions, for their own accounts or the accounts of customers, in debt, equity or other securities or financial instruments (including derivatives, bank loans or other obligations) of the Company, potential counterparties or any other company that may be involved in a transaction. Products and services that may be referenced in the accompanying materials may be provided through one or more affiliates of Bank of America Corporation. We have adopted policies and guidelines designed to preserve the independence of our research analysts. These policies prohibit employees from offering research coverage, a favorable research rating or a specific price target or offering to change a research rating or price target as consideration for or an inducement to obtain business or other compensation. We are required to obtain, verify and record certain information that identifies the Company, which information includes the name and address of the Company and other information that will allow us to identify the Company in accordance, as applicable, with the USA Patriot Act (Title III of Pub. L. 107-56 (signed into law October 26, 2001)) and such other laws, rules and regulations as applicable within and outside the United States.
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Notice to RecipientConfidential
Table of Contents
Investment BankingDiscussion Materials Prepared For Colgate University
1. Overview of Investment Banking
2. Role of an Analyst
3. Questions?
Appendix
A. Analyst Success Factors
B. Valuation Basics
C. Interview Skills and Preparation
1
Overview of Investment BankingSo What Do Investment Bankers Do?
I can sum up what we do in two words and one picture: Ari Gold
We don’t create anything and we don’t buy anything; we just sell things that aren’t ours to begin with
If the business world were like Entourage, bankers would be the agents, private equity firms and large companies would be the studios, and companies would be the actors and movies
And If You Haven’t Seen Entourage…
– Think of investment bankers like real estate agents but for companies instead of houses
– Just as a real estate agent introduces buyers and sellers of property, bankers introduce buyers and sellers of companies and try to make a deal happen
– And just like real estate agents, the only thing at stake is our time – we have no money invested on either side
But What Will You Do as an Analyst or Associate?
– The above is the “high-level” view of what investment bankers do
– As a junior banker, you’re more like Lloyd: you grab coffee for Ari and take care of his grunt work____________________Source: MergersAndInquisitions.com.
2
Overview of Investment BankingThe Basics
Providers of Capital:Individuals
Pension FundsInsurance Companies
Asset ManagersCorporate Treasuries
WALL STREET
Users of Capital:CorporationsGovernmentsMunicipalities
3
Overview of Investment BankingFunctions of an Investment Bank
INVESTMENT BANKINGCAPITAL MARKETSSALES & TRADING
RESEARCH
INVESTMENT BANKINGCAPITAL MARKETSSALES & TRADING
RESEARCH
PRIVATE CLIENTPRIVATE CLIENT ASSET MGMTASSET MGMT
Sell equity and debt securities,
provide research
Sell equity and debt securities,
provide research
AdviceFinancial planning Buy/sell securities
Sell equity and debt securities,
provide research
CORPS GOVTS MUNIS
CORPS GOVTS MUNIS
Individuals InstitutionsInvest indirectly by buying mutual funds, insurance policies, etc.
Invest dire
ctly Invest directly
Corporate Finance Services Strategic Advisory
Underwrite and Place Securities
4
Overview of Investment BankingMergers & Acquisitions Transaction
RESEARCHRESEARCH CAPITAL MARKETSCAPITAL MARKETS
CORPCLIENTCORP
CLIENT
Communicate
Strategize
Cooperate to originate
and/or financetransaction
and guide andunderstand
marketreaction
INVESTMENT BANKINGINVESTMENT BANKING
Advise Negotiate
Communicate
TARGETTARGET
SHAREHOLDERS OF EACH COMPANY
SALES & TRADINGSALES & TRADING
Cooperate to finance transactio
n and understan
dmarket reaction
5
Overview of Investment BankingDebt or Equity Transaction
CAPITAL MARKETSCAPITAL MARKETS
Constantcontact inorigination
and execution
Advise
CORPCLIENTCORP
CLIENT
I. BANKINGI. BANKING
OriginateAdviseDue diligence
TRADINGTRADING WALL STREETWALL STREET
SYNDICATESYNDICATE
SALESSALES
RESEARCHRESEARCH
Roadshow
$$$$
6
Overview of Investment BankingHow It All Works Together
Equity Capital Markets
Debt Capital Markets
InvestorsIssuersCorporate & Investment
Banking
Fixed Income Research
Equity Research
Sales and Trading
Information Wall
Syndicate
Seeking advice from bankers as well as access to permanent and working capital. Include Global Fortune 500 companies, as well as sovereigns, municipalities, and sponsors, who operate globally.
Separates private side of GBAM activities (left side) from public side of activities (right side). Compliance and legal ensure flow of information between the two sides does not occur. Consists of global
institutional firms such as mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks, as well as financial institutions and corporate clients.
Bankers are the relationship owners of issuing clients and sponsors. Investment Bankers typically work with CEOs & Boards as an advisor on firm strategy (M&A, divestiture) and Capital Raising. Corporate Bankers typically work with CFOs and Treasurers on working capital, treasury, and risk management solutions.
Form the capital raising function within the bank. Understands current market environment for capital and structures deals such that issuers are gaining the cheapest access to capital while investors are earning a fair return for respective risks. Origination and structuring of securities occurs here.
Research prepares independent views on Equity, Fixed Income, and Macro markets, valued by investing clients as well as internal Sales & Trading teams. Sales interfaces with institutional clients to provide access to the bank’s trading and product platform. Trading maintains market making activity in numerous equity, credit, rates, FX, commodity, and mortgage securities.
7
Role of an AnalystInvestment Banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Industry Focus
Global Corporate & Investment Banking
(“GCIB”)
Financial Sponsors
Consumer &
Retail(“C&R”)
Financial Institutio
ns(“FIG”)
Healthcare
Energy & Power
(“E&P”)
Global Industrial
s(“GIG”)
Media & Telecom(“M&T”)
Leveraged Finance
Private Equity
Real Estate
Mergers & Acquisitions
(“M&A”)
Debt Capital Markets(“DCM”)
Equity Capital Markets(“ECM”)
Product Focus
Typically a two to three year commitment as an Analyst with potential to remain with the firm depending on performance
Technology
8
Role of an AnalystBanking Hierarchy
What does everyone else do?
Directors and Managing Directors manage the teams, go to meetings, and do lots of strategic thinking/negotiating
VPs draw up pages and do strategic thinking; lots of meetings/presentation
Associates check the analyst’s work and tries to do VP-level work, occasionally presenting at meetings
What does an analyst do?
An analyst is the numbers and graphics maven
– Quantitative analysis (standalone operating models, merger models, LBO models, discounted cash flows, specialty models)
– Industry research
– Prepare presentations and pitches (board meetings, fairness opinions, management presentations, conference materials)
– Conduct due diligence and process results
– Organize roadshows for marketing transactions with corporate clients
Analyst
Associate
Vice President
Director
Managing Director
9
Role of an AnalystYour Role as An Analyst
FinancialAnalysis
IndustryResearch
Presentation Preparation
Transaction Execution
Client Support
Financial Statement Analysis
Comparable Company Analysis
Financial Forecasts and Projections
Modeling
Competitive Analyses
Background Description
Briefing Materials
Drafting and Editing
Graphic Design
Presentation Support
Drafting Documents
Due Diligence
Marketing Material Preparation
Roadshow Logistics
Acquisition Project Support
Strategic Studies
Special Projects
10
Role of an AnalystValuation Methodologies
ValuationMethodologies
Publicly Traded Comparable
Companies Analysis
ComparableTransactions Analysis
DiscountedCash Flow Analysis
Leveraged Buyout/Recap Analysis
Other
"Public Market Valuation"
Value based on market trading multiples of comparable companies
Applied using historical and prospective multiples
Does not include a control premium
"Private Market Valuation"
Value based on multiples paid for comparable companies in sale transactions
Includes control premium
"Intrinsic" value of business
Present value of projected free cash flows
Incorporates both short-term and long-term expected performance
Risk in cash flows and capital structure captured in discount rate
Value to a financial/LBO buyer
Value based on debt repayment and return on equity investment
Liquidation analysis
Break-up / Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) analysis
Historical trading performance
Expected IPO valuation
EPS impact (accretion / dilution analysis)
Dividend discount method
11
Role of an AnalystCore Competencies / Qualities
STRATEGIC THINKING BUSINESS RESULTS PEOPLE LEADERSHIP PERSONAL EFFECTIVENESS
Business Knowledge:
– Basic knowledge of products and sectors
– Knowledge of relevant tools, techniques and processes
Innovation & Creativity:
– Seek creative approaches to efficiently and effectively perform analytical tasks
Strategic Vision:
– Grasp macro factors impacting relevant industry and/or product
– Understand overall goals of transactions
Adaptability:
– Strive to better understand concepts and improve on areas of weakness
– Genuine interest in learning
Analytical Ability:
– Demonstrate strong quantitative abilities
– Rapidly process and synthesize information and identify key issues
Change Leadership: – Continually seek to do things
better Client Relationships:
– Understand overall goals and nature of specific client relationships
– Responsive in supporting client needs
Execution:
– Deliver required outputs on time and at required quality and accuracy
– Effectively work on several projects without sacrificing quality or service
Corporate Citizenship:
– Timely participation in mandated training programs
– Comply with policies and procedures
– Actively participate in efforts to improve institution and its reputation
Collaboration:
– Work well with others and share ideas
Talent Building: – Participate in recruiting and
training activities
Character:
– Behave in a way that leads others to trust you
– Calm and focused under pressure
– Demonstrate respect for individuals
Communication:
– Communicate effectively in formal and informal settings
– Proactively communicate and manage expectations
Courage:
– Confidence to speak up on issues
Decisiveness:
– Demonstrate good judgment – Seek out necessary
expertise to ensure decisions are made rapidly
Energy & Drive:
– Demonstrate personal commitment to the work
– Demonstrate positive attitude
12
Questions?Resources
Books
– The Vault Career Guide to Investment Banking – should be your bible if you’re interviewing
– The Accidental Investment Banker: Inside the Decade that Transformed Wall Street by Jonathan Knee – one man’s foray into investment banking; gives a good history and overview through the lens of his experience
– Barbarians at the Gate By Bryan Burrough and John Helyar – story of the landmark LBO of RJR Nabisco
– Liars Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street By Michael Lewis – called “essential reading for a prospective investment banker interested in the sales and trading side”
Online
– www.mergersandinquisitions.com – amusing yet insightful answers to every question you ever had about investment banking and the finance world
– www.wallst-training.com/resources.html – overviews of more technical concepts, great for interview prep
– dealbook.nytimes.com – goings on in the investment banking world
– www.dealbreaker.com – Perez Hilton for investment bankers
Other: NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Financial Times, etc.
13
Analyst Success Factors
A Great Analyst is Someone Who…
Tries to step into the shoes of the rank above
Has a positive attitude
Is eager to learn
Is reliable
Is responsible
Is accessible (carries Blackberry at all times, communicates well and on time)
Is proactive
Is resourceful
Asks insightful questions
Has an inquiring mind and is a thorough thinker
Is efficient, organized, has great attention to detail, and is self-sufficient/independent
Willing to do grunt work to highest standard
Leverages off peers and other analysts
Accepts the unpredictability of the schedule (don’t feel victimized by hours works and does not flaunt hours worked)
Needs little sleep, has great sense of humor!
Is always presentable and well-groomed
14
Analyst Success Factors
I. Business Acumen
Clearly understands the needs and complexity of the business they are serving
Develops a compelling sense of purpose and direction
Basic knowledge of products and sectors
Knowledge of relevant tools, techniques and processes
II. Quantitative/Technical Skills
Demonstrates strong quantitative ability
Rapidly processes and synthesizes information and identifies key issues
Delivers required output on time and at required quality and accuracy levels
Effectively works on several activities without sacrificing quality or service
Clear attention to detail
III. Leadership/Attitude
Collaborates well with others and shares ideas
Exhibits corporate citizenship; participates in mandated training programs, compiles with firm policies
Communicates effectively in formal and informal settings; proactive in managing expectations
Demonstrates good judgment and decision making capabilities
Has a positive attitude and strong commitment to the work
Behaves in a way that leads others to trust them
Is calm and focused under pressure
Works well amidst ambiguity
Results oriented
Your Report Card (Formal)
15
Analyst Success Factors
Things to Implement on the First Day
Attitude
Display a sense of urgency and be enthusiastic about everything you do
Demonstrate a positive attitude and be willing to learn as much as you can
Inspire Confidence
FIRST IMPRESSIONS ARE LASTING!!!
Be available (check voicemails and emails; let people know where you are; call in when you are out)
Be accurate (CHECK YOUR WORK)
Be reliable
Have an opinion
Career Development
Be proactive and introduce yourself to the members of the group
Establish a regular dialogue with your staffer
– What types of projects/sectors have you worked on?
– What types of projects/sectors would you like get more exposure to?
Establish a regular dialogue with your mentor
16
Analyst Success Factors
Take Ownership
Know the Objective
Why is the team working on this project? What’s the goal for the bank? What’s the history with the client? What’s the angle?
Demonstrate Basic Knowledge of the Company / Industry
Know key financial data (revenue, EBITDA, equity value, enterprise value, trading multiples, etc.)
Read a few research reports on your company to get up to speed
Who are the major competitors and end markets?
Focus on Quality Control
Read work that comes in from other groups. Check it.
Read the details that senior people don’t have time to read (that’s how you get invited to meetings)
Train Yourself
Never delegate something that you can’t do yourself
Study every piece of analysis that crosses your desk until you understand it
Pick your way through the model
Seek out and study precedents
Read training manuals
Run spell check (set email to run auto check)
Check the attachment before hitting send
Be careful of “Reply to All” (especially for distribution lists)
Use a professional tone / be conservative (e-mail can be interpreted differently)
NO PERSONAL EMAILS
Voicemail
Sending: Organize thoughts beforehand and get to the point
Receiving: Check voicemail often
Meetings
Always consider logistics in advance (building access, dial-in numbers, conference room reservations)
17
Analyst Success Factors
Communication
STOP
18
Analyst Success Factors
Organization
Actively Manage Your Time
Map out all of the steps of task at hand
– Estimate the time it will take to complete each step
– Communicate the schedule / allow teammates to plan accordingly
Budget time for associates to review and give comments before distributing to broader team
Manage Conflicts Early
Communicate time conflicts early and often – most conflicts can be managed
Don’t decide yourself what’s more important
Keep Lists
Write everything down (first casualty of fatigue is memory)
Review and prioritize your lists daily
Read your list often during the day
Organize As You Go
Don’t push it off until later
Keep your desk and projects organized and easily accessible
Save copies of all e-mails
20
Valuation BasicsAirline Public Comparables
($ in millions, except per share amounts)
____________________(1) Enterprise Value = Market Value of Equity + Short-term Debt + Long-term Debt + Preferred Equity + Minority Interest - Cash and Marketable Securities.(2) Estimates obtained from Wall Street research and calendarized when necessary.(3) Earnings estimates and EPS growth obtained from FactSet Fundamentals and calendarized when necessary.
Public comparables give a useful understanding of the company’s strengths and weaknesses against a peer group
Adj. FactSet Consensus 5-Year
Price as of Market Enterprise Adj. EV / EBITDAR (2) Price / Earnings (3) Growth
Company 1/20/2011 Value Value (1) 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E Rate (3)
Legacy MajorsDelta Air Lines $11.61 $9,304.8 $23,523.8 4.7x 4.5x 5.4x 4.6x 3.0%United Continental 24.18 8,334.8 19,606.9 3.3 3.0 5.1 4.8 3.0%AMR Corp. 7.53 2,644.1 13,558.7 5.1 4.8 NM 9.5 7.5%US Airways 10.25 1,936.6 9,140.8 4.5 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.0%Alaska Air Group 61.25 2,365.8 3,684.8 3.8 3.6 8.6 8.4 9.0%Hawaiian Airlines 7.50 388.6 1,143.4 3.1 2.8 7.6 7.2 6.7%
Average 4.1x 3.8x 6.2x 6.4x 5.4%Median 4.1 4.0 5.4x 6.0x 4.8%
Low Cost CarriersSouthwest Airlines $12.79 $9,555.4 $10,955.9 4.6x 4.0x 14.4x 13.5x 8.3%JetBlue Airways 6.49 2,058.8 5,135.5 5.8 5.6 13.0 14.0 20.0%AirTran 7.47 1,119.8 3,431.1 7.2 7.2 18.6 19.4 9.8%Allegiant 47.13 909.1 833.7 5.1 4.5 11.8 9.7 10.3%
Average 5.7x 5.3x 14.5x 14.2x 12.1%Median 5.4 5.0 13.7 13.8 10.0%
Recent Aerospace Sector Acquisition Transactions
LTM EBITDA Multiple
Strategic Sponsor____________________Source: Company filings and Wall Street research.(1) Transaction announced in March 2010 and still not closed.
Valuation Basics
21
10.4x
7.6x
9.5x
8.0x
11.9x 11.0x
9.3x
7.3x
9.4x8.6x
10.6x 9.5x
10.9x
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10.0x
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Acquisition comparables give a useful understanding of where the deal “fits” compared to similar transactions
2009 2010
Summary of Analysis
Advantages
22
Valuation BasicsDCF Analysis
Disadvantages
A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (“DCF”) establishes the “intrinsic value” of the operating assets of a business
A DCF is an analysis which represents the present value of each of the (1) free cash flows of the business over the projection period and (2) terminal value
– Free Cash Flows (“FCF”): Cash flows available to all providers of the capital to the business
– Terminal value: Portion of the total value of the business beyond the specific forecast period
Given the central role of long-term assumptions in the DCF, the results of a DCF should be presented as a range of values as opposed to a single point estimate
DCF is more flexible than other valuation approaches in terms of its ability to incorporate the unique attributes of a business, but it is also very sensitive to estimates of cash flow, terminal value and discount rate
Provides an objective framework for assessing risk and cash flows to estimate value
Requires users to analyze key drivers of value
May be used when no “pure play” comparable companies are available
Extremely sensitive to cash flow projections which may be unrealistic
Terminal value may be distorted by incorrect estimations of either long-term cash flow or reasonable terminal multiples
Validity of the discount rate depends of assumptions for beta and the market risk premium
23
Valuation BasicsDCF - Methodology
Derive an ImpliedValuation Range
Forecast FreeCash Flow
EstimateTerminal Value
EstimateCost of Capital
Identify components of free cash flow
Develop historical perspective
Determine forecast assumptions and scenarios
Decide forecast horizon, typically 5 to 10 years
Prepare forecast
Determine best way to estimate terminal value
Exit multiple
Perpetuity
Exit multiples implied by comparable acquisitions
Perpetuity growth rate should be consistent with inflation predictions
Examine terminal value contribution to analysis
Develop target capital structure
Estimate cost of equity(CAPM)
Estimate cost of non-equity sources of capital
Determine appropriate tax rate
Calculate WACC
Calculate present value of operating assets by discounting cash flows and terminal value to present
Adjust value to reflect other assets (e.g. cash) and liabilities (e.g. debt) to result in value of equity
Perform sensitivity analyses
Interpret results within decision context
24
Valuation BasicsDCF - Calculating Free Cash Flow
EBITLess: (–) Cash Taxes Equals: (=) Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
Add: (+) Depreciation & Amortization(+) Other noncash charges
Less: (-) Capex(-) Change in net working capital
Equals: (=) Unlevered Free Cash Flow
EBITLess: (–) Cash Taxes Equals: (=) Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
Add: (+) Depreciation & Amortization(+) Other noncash charges
Less: (-) Capex(-) Change in net working capital
Equals: (=) Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Illustrative Unlevered FCF Calculation
Unlevered Free Cash Flow is the cash generated:
By all of the operating assets employed in the business
Before the effects of financing (i.e. unlevered)
Thus, FCF represents the cash available to be distributed to all providers of capital
Why Unlevered Free Cash Flow vs. Discounted Earnings…
Near term, cash flow can differ substantially from accounting earnings
Capex vs. depreciation
Non-cash items included in earnings
Earnings are more easily manipulated than cash flow
Provisions / accruals
Revenue recognition policies
Inventory accounting (LIFO vs. FIFO)
Off-balance sheet financing and special purpose vehicles
Valuation Basics
Acquisition funded mostly with debt
"Leverage" of 3.0 to 5.0x EBITDA
Smaller amount of equity (typically, 30-40% — 60-70% Debt)
Value created primarily through "deleveraging"
Strong cash flows need to service debt
Viable "exit strategy" in 3-5 years
Common sources of debt financing
Bank debt (senior)
– Term loans and revolving credit facility
High yield bonds (subordinated)
Generally supplies a "floor valuation"
What can a " financial sponsor" afford to pay?
Targets often underperforming or "out of favor" companies
LBO Analysis
A leveraged buyout occurs when a financial sponsor acquires a controlling interest in a company's equity and where a significant percentage of the purchase price is financed through leverage. The cash flow is used to de-lever the company increasing the implied equity value.
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Valuation BasicsLBO - Capital Structure Alternatives
Components of Capital
Senior Debt
Revolving
Term
Sample inputs
30%–50% of total capital
LIBOR + 200–400
5–8 years
Typically supplied by an investment or commercial bank
Usually secured/most restrictive covenants
Amortizing 5- to 8-year tenor
First in line at liquidation
Lowest coupon
Subordinated Debt
Senior/sub notes
Discount notes
Sample inputs
25%–35% of total capital
T + 350–650
7–10 years
Typically supplied by an investment/commercial bank or mezzanine fund
Riskier debt/typically unsecured
Primarily bullet structures
Typical tenor is 10-year
High coupon
Mezzanine Securities
Sub. Debt (conv.)
Preferred stock
PIK
Warrants
Sample inputs
0%–35% total capital
High teens/low 20s
7–10+ years
Typically supplied by an investment or commercial bank or a mezzanine fund (often sponsor-affiliated)
Multiple forms: Convertible debt, exchangeable debt, convertible preferred stock, PIK securities and warrants
Expected IRR in the 15%–20% range
Common Equity
Sample inputs
20%–40% of total capital
20%–30% IRR
5–7 year horizon
Typically supplied by a financial sponsor
Highest risk/cost of capital
Sometimes "stapled" to high-yield paper to attract broader investor group
Minimum annual returns >20%
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Interview Skills and PreparationOverview
Interview is the most important element in the job search process
Opportunity for you to determine if investment banking and, more specifically, if “XYZ Bank” is a good “fit”
General Pointers
Be prepared: Know as much about the investment bank and position as possible
Know yourself
Be honest
Have a positive attitude
Demonstrate interest
Professionalism
Practice
Ask good and relevant questions
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Interview Skills and PreparationWhat Investment Banks Typically Desire in an Analyst
Strong communication skills (written and oral)
Motivation, enthusiasm, knowledge of firm and industry
Accomplishment (academic as well as personal)
Teamwork, group skills, respect for individuals
Strong work ethic and integrity
Quantitative/technical skills
Self-confidence and positive attitude
Time management skills, ability to multi-task
Creativity
Personality (sense of humor, cheerfulness and flexibility in new situations)
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Interview Skills and PreparationGeneral Takeaways
Do your own due diligence
Do you like the type of work required of a successful analyst?
Are you comfortable with the lifestyle? (long hours, stressful at times, multi-tasking)
How do you feel about New York city or other locations? (NYC is expensive, crowded)
Cultural fit of investment bank? (group dynamics, diversity, individuality, professionalism)
Opportunities? (training program, responsibilities, deal flow, international, transaction mix)
Be prepared
Talk with friends, family, professors, recruiters, and schedule office visits and externships
Read annual reports, research, recruiting literature, articles and Web site
List differences between firms and key criteria for making your own decision
Understand what investment banks do and your role in the process
Understand yourself, what motivates you, your strengths and weaknesses and be able to articulate those points
Practice interviewing – thinking it and speaking it can be entirely different
Make the decision for yourself, not someone else – and avoid the “herd mentality”
Relax, trust yourself, and have fun!