cohort effects in homelessness: trends among older and ... · persons ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010...
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![Page 1: Cohort Effects in Homelessness: Trends among Older and ... · Persons Ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010 Age 49+ Age 55+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060606/605c308707c96b554a51a88a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Cohort Effects in Homelessness: Trends among Older and
Emerging Adults
Dennis Culhane & Thomas Byrne
National Alliance to End Homelessness Annual Conference
July 23, 2013
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Overview
• 1) Recent National Evidence of Aging Trend
• 2) A Cohort Effect: Why Homelessness Among Older Adults Will Increase in Coming Years
• 3) Forecasting Future Trends In Homelessness Among Older Adults
• 4) Key issues to address: aging-related care and housing; and an emerging adult cohort?
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1) RECENT NATIONAL EVIDENCE
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Recent National Trends • Older homeless adults
are growing as a share of the homeless population
• Roughly 28% of all homeless single adults were 51+ in 2011
• Up from 23% in 2007
20.3% 23.7% 24.6%
51.9% 48.4% 46.2%
18.9% 22.3% 23.4%
4.1% 4.2% 4.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2010 2011
% o
f A
ll H
om
ele
ss S
ingl
e A
du
lts
Age Distribution of Single Adult Homeless Population
18-30 31-50 51-61 62+
Source: 2011 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Recent National Trends • 7% Increase in number
of homeless adults ages 51+ since in 2007
• 1 in every 350 adults over age 51 experiences homelessness over the course of a year
• 1 in every 50 adults over age 51 in poverty is homeless over course of a year
4.1% 4.2% 4.4%
256,462
276,459
273,683
245,000
250,000
255,000
260,000
265,000
270,000
275,000
280,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2010 2011
Annual Number of Single Homeless Adults Ages 51+
Source: 2011 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress & Author Calculations using American Community Survey data
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2) A COHORT EFFECT: WHY HOMELESSNESS AMONG OLDER
ADULTS WILL INCREASE IN COMING YEARS
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A Cohort Phenomenon
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
p.
2010(%) 2000(%) 1990(%)
31-33 40-42 49-51
1 in 3 sheltered homeless single adult males was age 46-54 in 2010 (1 in 5 in 2000 1 in 8 in 1990)
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
23.1 26.1
43.8
18.1 18.7
32.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 2000 2010
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
pu
lati
on
% Sheltered Single Adult Male Homeless Population Accounted For By Persons Ages 49+ and 55+, 1990-2010
Age 49+ Age 55+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
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Aging Trend Consistent Across Cities . . .
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% o
f P
reva
len
ce C
oh
ort
Age Distribution of Prevalence Cohorts of Male Shelter Users in New York City, 1990-2010
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
31-33
46-48
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ New York City Department of Homeless Services Shelter Utilization Data
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Aging Trend Consistent Across Cities . . .
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
18
-21
22
-24
25
-27
28
-30
31
-33
34
-36
37
-39
40
-42
43
-45
46
-48
49
-51
52
-54
55
-57
58
-59
60
-61
62
-64
65
-74
75
+
% o
f Sh
elt
ere
d A
du
lt M
ale
Po
pu
lati
on
Age Distribution of Sheltered Adult Male Population, 2010
Boston (Suffolk County)
Houston (Harris County)
LA (LA County)
Seattle (King County)
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. . . And Sub-populations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 andolder
% o
f H
om
ele
ss V
ete
ran
Po
pu
lati
on
Age Distribution of Homeless Veteran Population (based on users of VA specialized homeless programs) , 2000-2010
2000 2005 2010
64% of veterans experiencing homelessness in 2010 were age 50+ (37% in 2000)
Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Homeless Program Data
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Aging Trend Is Distinct from Aging of General Population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f To
tal
2010 (Homless Pop.) 2010 (General Pop.)49-51 (11.3%)
49-51 (5.9%)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Aging Trend Distinct from Aging of General Population
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Re
lati
ve R
isk
Relative Risk By Age, Male Shelter Users 1990-2010 (U.S. Census)
1990
2000
2010
34-36 (1.5)
43-45 (1.6)
49-51 (1.9)
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
3) FORECASTING FUTURE TRENDS IN HOMELESSNESS AMONG OLDER
ADULTS
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
p.
2010(%) 2000(%) 1990(%)
34-36 40-42 49-51
Source: Culhane et al. (2013)/ U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% o
f Si
ngl
e A
du
lt M
ale
Ho
me
less
Po
p.
Projected Age Distribution of Sheltered Single Adult Male Homeless Population, 2015-2025
2010
2015
2020
2025
49-51 52-54 65-74
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation
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56,595
37,193
67,846
51,886
33,971 34,376
15,748
53,091
4,939 3,046 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Projected PIT Counts of Single Adult Homeless Population, 2015-2025
52 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75+
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation and AHAR Report Note: PIT estimates are extrapolated from projections generated using U.S. Census Bureau data and should be interpreted cautiously.
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
54,658
68,709
86,358
90,513
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Tota
l Ho
me
less
Pe
rso
ns
Age
60
+
Total Persons (Age 60+)
Projected Future Growth in Homeless Population Age 60 and Above
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census Special Tabulation and AHAR Report Note: PIT estimates are extrapolated from projections generated using U.S. Census Bureau data and should be interpreted cautiously.
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Increased Mortality/Health Issues
• Average life expectancy of single homeless adults is 64 for males & 69 for females (Metraux et al, 2011)
• With increasing number of homeless persons approaching life expectancy, health care needs and associated costs expected to increase
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
54,658
68,709
86,358 90,513
$1.45
$1.84
$2.31 $2.41
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Cu
mu
lati
ve H
eal
th C
are
Co
sts
(in
Bill
ion
s)
Tota
l Ho
me
less
Pe
rso
ns
Age
60
+
Total Persons (Age 60+) Cumulative Cost (Age 60+)
Projected Health Care Costs
Source: Author Estimates Based Data from U.S. Census Bureau, AHAR Report and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Note: Cost estimates based on use of VA healthcare services and should be interpreted cautiously.
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4) KEY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
$1.45
$1.84
$2.31 $2.41
$1.45 $1.60 $1.50 $1.30
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010 (Estimated) 2015 (Forecasted) 2020 (Forecasted) 2025 (Forecasted)
Cu
mu
lati
ve H
eal
th C
are
Co
sts
(in
Bill
ion
s)
Cumulative Cost (Age 60+) If Housed
? ? ?
Can permanent housing lead to cost savings for health care system? How much?
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Pathways Out of Homelessness
• Average life expectancy ~64 years, but many older homeless adults exit homelessness through pathways other than death
• Little knowledge about patterns of desistance
• Comparing pathways of homeless decedents to those who exited homelessness before death may provide key insights in forecasting demand and designing alternative housing interventions
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The National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans Promoting data-driven, evidence-based solutions to end Veteran homelessness
Emerging Young Adult Cohort
• Projections suggest a growing proportion of young adults in homeless population; grouped around age 30 in 2020 and 35 in 2025.
• Similar causal factors? Great Recession, population bulge (Gen Y) (and young veterans)
• What will we do different to avoid long-term cohort effect? What interventions will disrupt this pattern?
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Thank You
• Contact: [email protected]; [email protected]
• www.homelessnessanalytics.org
• www.endveteranhomelessness.org
• References: • Culhane, D.P., Metraux, S., Byrne, T., Stino, M. & Bainbridge, J. (2013). The Age
Structure of Contemporary Homelessness: Evidence and Implications for Public
Policy. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy.