cohen - bsrmsite2.files.wordpress.com · cohen, alikani and bisignano, 2012 in 2020 the glass will...
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Jacques Cohen
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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D i s c l o s u r e s
• C o - F o u n d e r o f L i f e G l o b a l & R e p r o g e n e t i c s
• C o - f o u n d e r o f A l t h e a S c i e n c e – I V F q c
• L e c t u r e r f o r C o o p e r S u r g i c a l & C o o p e r G e n o m i c s
• D i r e c t o r A R T I n s t i t u t e o f W a s h i n g t o n
• A d v i s o r T M R W , K i n d B o d y
• W r i t e r G E H e a l t h c a r e
• S p e a k e r d o e s n o t d r i n k b e e r – s i n c e r e a p o l o g i e s
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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BSRM & Beer, 2018
• Smurfs
• ICSI
• Frieten
• Saxophone
• BMI
• Asphalt
• Beer Sumerian apparently (don’t believe it – fake news?)
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BSRM & Beer, 2018
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BSRM & Beer, 2018
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[CATEGORY NAME]
Also YES, but in yellow
Should I have a BEER tomorrow ?
YES Also YES, but in yellow
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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Predicting The Future – The CONVENTIONAL Approach
Ø Develop a wish-list of things you like or do not like (Edwards, 1965)
Ø Look for mergers with other fields of technology (genetics, engineering)
Ø Look for external influences (economy, ethics, politics, law)
Ø Maybe do not dwell too much on recent science (short-term)
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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Predicting The Future – The NUMERICAL Approach
Ø Consider past developments as a prologue to the future, and
translate into mathematical assumptions, if possible.
Ø ‘Gartner / Palmer’ Hype Cycle: market forces at work after introduction of new technology
Ø Timeline & Duration: the time it takes to go from (A) hypothesis, to (B) basic experimental work, to (C) clinical application and finally (D) routine
Ø Moore’s Law and derivatives: association between success rate and time
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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The Hype Cycle
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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Gartner – Palmer* Hype Cycle
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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EVOLUTION OF PGS:
Reprogenetics 2002-2014
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Timeline Approximation
(speed of acceptance of technology and routine application)
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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Predicting the future using time intervals from basic model to first clinical application
Technology Animal Model Clinical application Interval
IVF 1959 1978 19
Foll. Stim. 1927 1960 33
Cryopreservation 1972 1983 11
PGD 1968 1989 21
Vitrification 1985 2005 20
Assisted fertilization 1980 1988 8
ICSI 1989 1992 3
Nuclear Transplantation 1983 2016 33
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Predicting the future using time intervals from basic
science model to clinical application
Towards clinical application - 3 to 33 years
The average interval - 18.6 years
Marrakech, 2018
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Predicting the future using time intervals from basic
science model to EFFECTIVE clinical applicationTechnology Animal Model Effective application Interval
(year) (year) (years)
IVF 1959 2010 31
Foll. Stim. 1927 1990 63
Cryo 1972 2011 >44
PGD 1968 not yet >48
Vitrification 1984 2015 31
ICSI 1989 1997 9
Nuclear Transplantation 1983 not yet >33
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Predicting the future using time intervals from basic
science model to clinical efficacy
Towards effective clinical application - 9 to >48 years
The average interval - >34.2 years
Marrakech, 2018
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THREE MAJOR TECHNOLOGIES.
What is their timeline?
Ø Automation and AI
Ø Genetic modification
Ø Engineered gametes
Marrakech, 2018
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• Ethical debate
• Market economy
• Unexpected forces
• Political will
• Hype
Known Influences – Unknown Effects
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Moore’s Law in Assisted Reproduction
BSRM & Beer, 2018
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Integrated circuit
Microprocessor Multi-core CPU
RAM Laser Photolithography
Memristor Single Atom Transistor
Junctionless Transistor
Moore’s Law, 1965
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0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Implantation <35 years ü SART data from www.sart.org ü >400 clinics
ü >750,000 cycles
ü >2,000,000 embryos
ü USA National implantation rates
ü <35 years of age
ü Regression slope per year 1.46%
ü 100% implantation reached in 35 years
ü AD 2053.3
2011 35.9%
2012 37.4%
2013 39.4%
2014 43.7%
2015 44.4%
2016 45.6%
Cohen, Alikani and Bisignano, 2012
In 2020 the glass will be half full
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SART implantation success rate
<35 35-37 38-40 41-42
Improvement per year (%)
1.46 0.93 0.64 0.32
Years to reach100%
35 69 121 276
Year of 100% implantation
2053 2087 2139 2294
The Future of IVF - Success Rate of ALL age groups
(Based on SART data, Moore’s Law and without ‘paradigm shift’ – Cohen et al, 2012)
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05101520253035404550
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0,50,91,82,53,54,7
67,79,210,8
12,41415,717
18,62021,523,4
24,826,227,627,529
30,832,634,135,6
36,935,937,439,4
43,744,445,6
evidence-based medicine
implantation rate (per embryo) in patients <35 years
Improved laboratory design
quality control
improved embryo transfer
Assisted Hatching
co-culture
Improved retrieval sequential media
SOM media
blastocyst culture
PGT-A 2.0
time-lapse
omics / biomarkers
ICSI
down-regulation
ultrasound-guided retrieval
communication
specialized training
more QC
more quality control
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Improved laboratory design
05101520253035404550
1983
19
84
1985
19
86
1987
19
88
1989
19
90
1991
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0,50,91,82,53,54,7
67,79,210,8
12,41415,717
18,62021,523,4
24,826,227,627,529
30,832,634,135,6
36,935,937,439,4
43,744,445,6
quality control
improved embryo transfer
Assisted Hatching
co-culture
Improved retrieval sequential media
SOM media
blastocyst culture
PGT-A 2.0
time-lapse
omics / biomarkers
evidence-based medicine
ICSI
down-regulation
ultrasound-guided retrieval
communication
specialized training
more QC
more quality control
implantation rate (per embryo) in patients <35 years
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BSRM & Beer, 2018
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ü Predictive algorithms based on current data sets
ü Dependent on improvement of technology, training, communication
ü Younger age group may approach 100% implantation in some clinics
within 10 years (based on Moore’s law) – USA data
ü 100% implantation < 100% births < 100% healthy births
ü TRUE paradigm shift (egg engineering?) could change that
ü Automation & AI will phased in over time.
ü Future IVF specialist is an engineer/geneticist/physicist
ü A few hundred years from now: ART = reproduction
Conclusions: