cohabitation and marital dissolution
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Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution. Wendy D. Manning Department of Sociology Center for Family and Demographic Research National Center for Family and Demographic Research Bowling Green State University. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution
Wendy D. Manning
Department of SociologyCenter for Family and Demographic Research
National Center for Family and Demographic Research Bowling Green State University
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Outline
Trends in Canada and USStudies of Cohabitation and Marital DissolutionQualitative FindingsQuantitative ResultsDiscussion
Collaborators: Jessica Cohen, Pamela Smock
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Marriage
• Crude Marriage RateWomen US 7.4 Canada 4.4
• Adjusted Rate per 1,000 unmarried (15+)Women US 32.9 Canada 22.2
• Proportion Population Married (20+) Women US 52.9%% Canada 39.3%
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Age at First Marriage, 1950-2010
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20101618202224262830323436
Canadian Men Canadian WomenUS Men US Women
Data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census
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Cohabitation• Percent population cohabiting (20+)
• US 5.5% Canada 8.9%
• 1970-79 20% of Canadian women married with cohabitation. 2000-2006 27% of Canadian women married with cohabitation. (France-Pascale Ménard McGill Sociological Review, Vol. 2, April 2011 )
• 1965-74 11% of US women married with cohabitation.• 2000-2008 67% of US women married with cohabitation.
(NCFMR - Manning, 2011)
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Couple Households
11%
89%
US
Cohab Married
18%
82%
Canada
Data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census
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ROC
CohabMarried
Quebec
CohabMarried
Couples within Canada – 2000-2006
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Divorce• Crude Divorce Rate (per 1,000 Population):
2.2 2005 Canada3.8 2010 US
• Divorce Rate per 1,000 Married women 15+9.2 Canada US 16.4
• Percent population divorced:5.1% 2007 Canada 8.7% US 2010
• Marriage Cohort– 2008 Canada ~41% 2010 US~50%
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U.S. Patterns
CohabitationDivorceTesting Ground
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Cohabitation Trends
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2858
7529N
umbe
r in
1,00
0’s
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Cohabitation Trends•Increase in cohabitation
1988 1995 2002 2006-20080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
30
4861
63
Percent of Women Ages 35-39 Who Ever Cohabited, U.S
Year
Perc
ent
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Cohabitation Trends
• Majority of Newlyweds Cohabit
1965-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-2002
2002-2008
0
20
40
60
80
11
3241 46
5665 65
Percent of First Marriages Preceded by Cohabitation by Marriage Cohort
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1984-1988 1991-1995 1998-2002 2006-201016.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
23.0 22.7
24.9 25.9
22.921.0
22.121.7
22.0
20.7
22.0 21.2
Age 1stMarriageAge 1stCohabAge 1stUnion
Median Age at First Marriage, Cohabitation, and Union, Women, 1984-2010
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Marital Dissolution Trends
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Cohabitation Paradox
Marital Search Perspective – Cohabitation “weed out” poor matches
NSFH --“Couples can be sure they are compatible before marriage” 51% and 56% of young men and women endorsing it as important. (Bumpass, Sweet, and Cherlin 1991)
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Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution•Positive association between cohabitation and marital dissolution
–Newcomb and Bentler (1980)–Newcomb (1986)–Bennet, Blanc and Bloom (1988) -- Sweden–Teachman and Polonko (1990)–DeMaris and Rao (1992)–Schoen (1992)–DeMaris and McDonald (1993)–Lillard, Brien, and Waite (1995)–Woods and Emery (2002)–Teachman (2002)–Teachman (2003)–Kamp Dush, Cohen and Amato (2003)–Phillips and Sweeney (2005)–Brown, Sanchez, Nock, and Wright (2006)–Stanley,Rhoades, Amato, Markman, and Johnson (2010)–Rheinhold (2010)–Jose, O’Leary, and Moyer (2010) -– Meta-analysis
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Cohabitation as Testing Ground
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Qualitative Data
Views of Cohabitation •Divorce-proof marriages• Learn more about partner • Practice marital roles – lease, test drive
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Cohabitation & Marriage in America
115 semistructured interviews: young adults who have ever cohabited
18 focus groups ≈ 126 young adults
60 couples: cohabiting,
married, or dating
P.I.’s: Wendy Manning and Pamela SmockNIH: R03HD039835 and R01HD040910
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Cohabiting Couple: Test DriveJoy: I kinda have the theory of, you know, test drive {LAUGH}. Test drive the car before you buy it. You know? Just kinda see, you know, because you could love each other but not be able to live with each other. Like if he’s a slob and I’m very clean, I would have a big problem with that.
Bill:[Cohabitation] It’s good, but it’s bad. It’s good because, umm, it will, you get to know the person and their habits before you get married. So that way, you won’t have to get divorced. Or, some of the problems will come up before so you can work them all out before you get married.
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Cohabiting Couple: EdgeLee: I think living together gives you that edge on people who don’t live together before marriage, because you know what it is going to be like. You can make it last longer … you know how to deal with problems of married life, at least that is what I think about it.
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Married Couple: Roles
Damion: Cohabitation prepared them for marriage because it showed who’s gonna be the one paying the bills, who’s gonna be the one doing that kind of stuff. That was a big thing. I guess, setting up roles. Like I would do the yard work, we both do the housework, she pays all the bills.
Jen:Umm, it just helped me see what being married to him would be like. That he doesn’t clean, he doesn’t really cook, and that I had to be okay with that. Umm, how he spent his money or how he doesn’t spend his money, or how he doesn’t check the mail, how he doesn’t pay the bills and that I have to do that.
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Married Couple: DivorceLeah: At least you know how he’s gonna be around you, instead of getting married and then living together for the first time. I think people would get more divorced because they don’t know how that person acts.
---------------------------------------------Denise:I think maybe you’ll have more of a chance of getting divorced if you don’t live with somebody first, just ‘cause then you don’t know what to expect. Marriage is, harder than I thought it would be sometimes. Marriage is a lot of work, but anything is, I guess.
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Married Couple: DivorceMaria. 1st interview: “It’s not a big deal to me anymore because I’m already his wife you know. …Nothing is going to change.”
2nd interview: “The biggest mistake was thinking that nothing was going to change, I didn’t know my feelings about it would change …I had commitment before, and I have commitment now, but now it’s a wife commitment”
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Recent Reports
Living together prior to marriage may help prevent divorce
•National (15-44: 2008-2010)–68% Men 58% Women Agree or Strongly Agree
•Young Adults (18-24: 2006) 60% Agree or Strongly Agree
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Prior Studies
FindingsComplicationsExplanations
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Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution•Positive association between cohabitation and marital dissolution
–Newcomb and Bentler (1980)–Newcomb (1986)–Bennet, Blanc and Bloom (1988) -- Sweden–Teachman and Polonko (1990)–DeMaris and Rao (1992)–Schoen (1992)–DeMaris and McDonald (1993)–Lillard, Brien, and Waite (1995)–Woods and Emery (2002)–Teachman (2002)–Teachman (2003)–Kamp Dush, Cohen and Amato (2003)–Phillips and Sweeney (2005)–Brown, Sanchez, Nock, and Wright (2006)–Stanley,Rhoades, Amato, Markman, and Johnson (2010)–Rheinhold (2010)–Jose, O’Leary, and Moyer (2010) -– Meta-analysis
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Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution
•Positive association between cohabitation and marital dissolution
–Selection Hypothesis–Cohabitation Experience Hypothesis–Inertia Hypothesis–Diffusion Hypothesis
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Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution–Complications:
•Marriage Cohort•Engagement•Race/Ethnicity•Sexual History•Serial Cohabitation
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Quantitative Analysis
What is the relationship between cohabitation and marital dissolution?
–Engagement/Definite Plans for Marriage–Marriage Cohort
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Data•2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth
–7,356 women ages 15-44– 6,139 men ages 15-44
•Analytic sample–2,003 ever-married women since 1996–1,483 ever-married men since 1996
•Dependent Variable–Timing to divorce or separation of first marriage
•Focal Independent Variable–Cohabitation experience w/ spouse
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Data•Race/Ethnicity and Nativity Status•Number of premarital non-cohabiting sex partners•Time at Marriage
–Children Prior Marriage–Education (Interview date)–Age at Marriage
•Background Family Characteristics–Lived with biological parents–Mother’s education
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Cohabitation Experience byMarriage Cohort
PercentWomen Men
Pre 1996 No Cohab w/ Spouse 57 53 Cohab Engaged 25 25 Cohab Not Engaged 18 23 N (1413) (816)
1996 + No Cohab w/ Spouse 38 39 Cohab Engaged 35 33 Cohab Not Engaged 27 28 N (2003) (1483)
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Cumulative Probability Marital Dissolution: Women
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Premarital Cohabitation and Marriage Cohort: Women
Hazard Ratio of Marital Dissolution< 1996 > 1996
Zero-Order Full Model Zero-Order Full ModelCohabitation 1.63** 1.43* 1.09 1.03(No Cohabitation w/ Spouse)
N 1413 1413 2003 2003
Note: Reference category in parentheses
Full Model includes controls premarital birth, race/ethnicity,non-cohabitating sex partners, education, mother's education, childhood family structure, and age at marriage.
+P<.10; *P<.05; **P< .01
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Cumulative Probability Marital Dissolution: Men
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Premarital Cohabitation and Marriage Cohort: Men
Hazard Ratio of Marital Dissolution< 1996 > 1996
Zero-Order Full Model Zero-Order Full ModelCohabitation 1.86*** 1.70** 1.22 1.03(No Cohabitation w/ Spouse)
N 816 816 1483 1483
Note: Reference category in parentheses
Full Model includes controls premarital birth, race/ethnicity,education, mother's education, childhood family structure,and age at marriage.
+P< .10; *P<.05; **P< .01
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Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution (WOMEN)
Hazard Ratio of Marital Dissolution
WOMEN
Zero-Order Full Model
Cohabitation Engagement Status (No Cohabitation w/ Spouse)
Cohabitation & Engaged 0.75+ 0.57*
Cohabitation & Not Engaged 1.40* 1.07
N 2003
+P< .10; *P<.05; **P< .01
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Premarital Cohabitation, Engagement Status & Premarital Birth
( Women > 1996 Marriage Cohort)Hazard Ratio of Marital Dissolution
Premarital Birth No Premarital BirthZero Full Zero Full
Cohabitation & Engaged 0.36* 0 .37* 0.97 0.80Cohabitation & Not Engaged 0.81 0.80 1.30 1.26(No Premarital Cohabitation)
N 616 1387
Note: Reference category in parentheses
Full model includes controls for non-cohabitating sex partners, education, mother's education, childhood family structure, and age at marriage.+ p < .10; *P< .05; **P<.01; ***P< .001
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Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution (MEN)
Hazard Ratio of Marital Dissolution
MEN
Zero-Order Full Model
Cohabitation Engagement Status (No)
Cohabitation & Engaged 1.22 0.99
Cohabitation & Not Engaged 1.22 0.98
N 1483
+P< .10; *P<.05; **P< .01
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Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Dissolution (WOMEN & MEN)
Hazard Ratio of Marital Dissolution
Women & Men
Zero-Order Full Model
Full Model w/
Interaction
Cohabitation Engagement Status (No)
Cohabitation & Engaged 0.97 0.78 1.00
Cohabitation & Not Engaged 1.34* 1.06 1.00
Female 1.02 0.95 1.07
Interactions
Female x Cohabitation & Engaged 0.61+
Female x Cohabitation & Not Engaged 1.11
N 3486
+P< .10; *P<.05; **P< .01
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Discussion
“It seems clear from the data that the impact of premarital cohabitation on a subsequent marriage is not a simple or direct relationship, but rather is multifaceted.” - Newcomb and Bentler (1980, pg. 23)
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•Marriage Cohort–Earlier marriage cohort
•Cohabitation is tied to greater instability regardless of engagement status
–Later marriage cohort •Cohabitation is NOT tied to heightened marital dissolution
•Diffusion Perspective
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•Commitment at the start of cohabitation –Engagement/definite marriage plans
Half of adults who cohabited prior to a recent marriage made a commitment to marriage when they started living together
Engagement status depends on premarital fertility »No Births No cohabitation effect»Births Engaged protective effect
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•Subgroup differentials: “one size does not fit all”
–Reframe:•Relationship experiences: ‘premarital divorce’ •Variation among respondents who never cohabit
•Challenge our understanding of cohabitation and marriage dissolution•Meaning of cohabitation and its role in marriage process
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Thank you!
Check out updates:National Center for Family and
Marriage Researchhttp://ncfmr.bgsu.edu/
Comments & Queries:[email protected]