coffee in the age of climate change: risks & potential impacts · 2019. 6. 19. · some countries...

Coffee in the Age of Climate Change:

Risks & Potential Impacts

Reference deck summarizing research from technical partners

Prepared by Root Capital

2018

Introduction

Objectives & sources

How to use (and not use) information on projected climate impacts

Introduction: Objectives & Sources

Objectives. This deck summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on

coffee production in key Root Capital geographies. The deck is designed as a

reference document for a layman audience: staff of Root Capital and of peers in the

Counsel for Smallholder Agricultural Finance (CSAF). The deck is a living document

and will be updated periodically.

Sources. Information comes primarily from Root Capital partners: the coffee&climate

Initiative of Hanns R. Neumann Stiftung (HRNS), the International Center for Tropical

Agriculture (CIAT), the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and the

Rainforest Alliance. Please use the sources cited at the bottom of each slide when

referencing information. Sources can be found in this Box folder for CSAF members.

Contacts. Please contact Elizabeth Teague ([email protected]) with questions

and requests for more information or partner contact details.

https://rootcapital.box.com/s/grgdalosurgt88be251j5kpfvi5qlt6wmailto:[email protected]

Introduction: How to use (and not use) information on

projected climate impacts.

Information on future climate conditions come from computer models simulating the interactions of

physical processes in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on land that drive climate. Scientists often

run a combination of models – generally the CMIP5 ensemble model used by the UN IPCC – and

average the results. When using projection data, keep in mind the following caveats:

• Projections, not guarantees. Climate models carry a degree of uncertainty, due to gaps in our

understanding of climate science, and should not be used as exact predictions of the future. Rather, models

provide directional insights into our likely future under a business-as-usual scenario.

• Regional, not site-specific. Model uncertainty increases with geographic granularity, meaning model

outcomes are best suited to projecting impacts at a regional or perhaps national level rather than supporting

decision-making at a sub-national level. While climate maps may show data at a resolution of square miles,

map users should view data as directional rather than an exact prediction of site-specific outcomes. Maps

can identify regional trends, the specifics of which should be validated locally through field work.

• Multiple layers of uncertainty. When evaluating climate impacts on a particular crop, we add another layer

of uncertainty due to our limited understanding of the physiology of tropical crops like coffee. We simply do

not know how the coffee tree will respond to certain climate impacts, or whether “climate-ready” varieties or

traits exist within the coffee gene pool that could be bred to withstand climate change.

Executive Summary

Overview: Climate change threatens global coffee production.

Climate Risk: Climate change will likely reduce and shift the area suitable for coffee

production, affecting all coffee origins.

Climate Risk: Projected changes in suitability will vary by geography, with Latin America

most negatively impacted and East Africa least.

Climate Risk: Climate change likely will also reduce coffee quality and yields in areas

retaining suitability.

Climate Resilience: Adaptation practices can help farmers in areas suitable for coffee

prepare for climate hazards.

Climate Resilience: Diversification or transition to alternative livelihood strategies will be

needed in areas no longer suitable.

Overview: Climate change threatens global coffee production.

Climate change will have a strong negative impact on coffee production worldwide. Higher

temperatures could halve the area suitable for coffee (note model outputs range from 20-85%),

while changing temperature and precipitation patterns will reduce productivity and quality in

areas that remain suitable. Some climate impacts are already present (e.g., the severe drought

in Central America between 2014 and 2017, irregular rains throughout the coffeelands that

interfere with flowering). Negative impacts will intensify through 2050s.

Coffee enterprises and farmers will need to adapt to changing climatic conditions to

remain viable. Most coffee farmers will need to adopt practices that build farm resilience to heat,

drought, and irregularly timed or excessive rains. Farmers located in marginal production areas

may need to transition to alternative, more “climate-ready” crops. Coffee businesses may need to

adapt their sourcing strategy, prepare for more severe and/or frequent supply chain disruptions,

or invest in resilient processing and storage infrastructure.

Given the lifecycle of the coffee tree, which requires several years to mature, businesses and

farmers should start investing in adaptation or transition to cope with current impacts and

prepare for future changes in climatic conditions.

Climate Risk: Climate change will likely reduce and shift the area

suitable for coffee production, affecting all coffee origins (1/2).

The area suitable for Arabica production will likely decline by 49% by 2050, while area

suitable for Robusta will likely decline by 54%. All current coffee-producing countries will be

affected; all will maintain some suitable area; a subset of countries may see slight suitable gains.

See the section “Climate Change Risk: Risk Profiles for Select Geographies” for details.

Rising temperatures appear to be a main driver of projected suitability changes. Coffee,

particularly Arabica, thrives within a relatively narrow temperature window (see slide 48). The

projected average global warming of 2°C would push many coffee-growing areas outside

coffee’s “climate envelope,” making production economically unviable. Some local modeling

studies, however, suggest precipitation declines as a primary driver of suitability changes in

certain origins, including Mexico.

Climate impacts will be heavily linked to altitude. As temperatures rise, the area suitable for

coffee will migrate up-slope to cooler areas. Within 5°–10° of the equator, elevations below 1000

masl will likely not be suitable for coffee production by the 2050s. Elsewhere, the suitability zone

will likely migrate several hundred meters up-slope.

Source: Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-

1306-x; Silva, R. et al. Vulnerabilidad de la Producción del Café (Coffea arabica L.) al Cambio Climático Global, Terra

Latinoamericana, vol. 31, núm. 4, octubre-diciembre, 2013, pp. 305-313. http://www.redalyc.org/pdf/573/57329629005.pdf.

Climate Risk: Climate change will likely reduce and shift the area

suitable for coffee production, affecting all coffee origins (2/2).

Source: Laurence Jassogne, Peter Laderach, Piet Van Asten, “The Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda:

Lessons from a Case Study in the Rwenzori Mountains,” Oxfam Research Reports, April 2013.

Climate Risk: Changes in suitability will vary by geography, with

Latin America most negatively impacted and East Africa least (1/3).

Climate impacts will vary significantly across origins, creating “winners” and “losers.”

• “Biggest losers.” Mesoamerica (particularly El Salvador and Nicaragua) will be most

severely impacted, with countries projected to lose 20-30% of suitable area by the 2050s.

Brazil, India, Tanzania, Uganda, and Vietnam may also see impacts in this range.

• “Intermediate losers.” The Andes, southern Africa and Madagascar, and Indonesia will see

intermediate impacts.

• “Relative winners.” East Africa (excluding Uganda, which may see more severe impacts)

and the Pacific (excluding Papua New Guinea) will be the least impacted – and may even

experience net gains in suitable area.

Some countries may compensate for lost coffee land by shifting production higher.

• Farmers in Colombia, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Mexico, for example, may be

able to migrate up-slope. Farmers in lower-elevation countries like Brazil, El Salvador, and

Nicaragua do not have this option.

• However, land at higher altitudes is often forested and/or protected, raising concerns of

ecosystem degradation. For example, land above 1800m in Honduras is protected.

Source: Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-

014-1306-x


014-1306-x



Figure 4.

Suitability

change in main

Coffea arabica

growing

countries by

2050s.

Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, Läderach P, Bunn C, Obersteiner M, Schroth G (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea

arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155



Climate Risk: Climate change likely will also reduce coffee

quality and yields in areas retaining suitability (1/2).

Areas remaining suitable for coffee production will still see negative impacts, namely an

increase in “climate hazards” that threaten coffee productivity and quality. Climate

hazards are specific, potentially damaging hydro-meterological events or phenomena

associated with climate change. Examples include prolonged droughts or periods of excessive

temperatures. The concept of climate hazards allows us to break the complex phenomenon of

climate change down into more discrete (and perhaps more manageable) risks.

Key climate hazards for coffee include high temperatures; intermittent, unseasonal, or

prolonged rain; and prolonged drought. These hazards affect tree growth and fruit

development, reducing overall yields or quality. Certain hazards also increase the incidence of

pests and diseases, like coffee berry borer.

Many coffee origins already experience an increase in the frequency or intensity of

climate hazards due to climate change. Examples include irregular flowering due to

unseasonal rains in Uganda and other parts of East Africa; severe, multi-year droughts affecting

yields in Central America; and excessive rainfall events in Colombia.

Climate Risk: Climate change likely will also reduce coffee

quality and yields in areas retaining suitability (2/2).

Source: coffee&climate Sourcebook

For farmers with land whose suitability will decline, but not prohibitively so, adaptation is

crucial.

“Many adaptation strategies consist of… “no-regret” measures that would be beneficial

regardless of the magnitude of climate change. Improved agronomy and sustainable

management of resources – including the use of drought- and heat-resistant varieties, irrigation,

and shade cover – are good first steps” (Laderach et al, CIAT, 2010)

Beyond no-regrets measures, farmers need to adopt practices that address climate

hazards specific to their zone. One key example is agroforestry (shade) production

practices, which can reduce temperatures in the coffee canopy by 2-4°C, prevent tree damage

from severe weather events, and conserve soil moisture. (Farmers will need, however, to take

into account increased nutrient and water competition between shade and coffee trees.) Other

examples of adaptation practices are listed on slide 15.

Finally, farmers and their value chain partners can invest in risk reduction or transfer

mechanisms, like weather-indexed crop insurance.

Climate Resilience: Adaptation practices can help farmers in

areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate change (1/3).

Source: Läderach, P. et al. 2010. Mesoamerican coffee: Building a climate change adaptation strategy. CIAT Policy Brief no. 2.

CIAT; Jassogne L., Laderach P., Van Asten, P., “The Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons from a Case

Study in the Rwenzori Mountains,” Oxfam Research Reports, April 2013


areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate hazards (2/3).

Source: coffee&climate Sourcebook


areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate hazards (3/3).

When adoption new practices, farmers and partners should consider using a “stepwise”

approach. Coffee smallholders generally do not use the broad package of agricultural practices

recommended by extensionists, in large part due to limited resources. The International Institute

for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) proposes breaking the package into smaller, incremental and

sequential steps – e.g., using a “stepwise approach” – to make the adoption of new practices

more affordable and practical for farmers.

The stepwise approach mixes basic good agricultural practices with more novel

practices responding to specific climate risks. The first step promotes relatively low-cost,

no-regrets practices that should boost productivity and lay the groundwork for larger and more

complex investments. Steps correspond roughly to one cropping season, although it may take

farmers more than one year to implement each step. The specific practices within each step can

be adapted for different contexts, based on farmer demographics and environmental/climate

risks.

For those interested, IITA has an app that guides Ugandan Robusta coffee farmers through the

stepwise investment process for their farms.

Source: Laurence Jassogne, David Mukasa, Hannington Bukomeko, Elizabeth Kemigisha, Diana Kirungi, Onno Giller,

and Piet van Asten , “Redesigning Delivery: Boosting Adoption of Coffee Management Practices in Uganda,” CCAFS

Info Note, April 2017.

Climate Resilience: Diversification or transition to alterative

livelihood strategies will be needed in areas no longer suitable.

Farmers in areas no longer suitable for coffee production face farm diversification or a

total transition to another crop or off-farm livelihood strategy. In many cases, farmers may

use diversification as an intermediary step toward eventual transition, progressively replacing

coffee with more “climate-ready” crops until they have a fully transitioned farm.

Robusta coffee could replace Arabica in certain regions. The Robusta variety can generally

withstand warmer temperatures than Arabica, making it a candidate for lower-altitude farms,

although the variety remains susceptible to drought. Farmers would lose price premiums

associated with Arabica’s cup quality. One potential solution is grafting Arabica coffee trees onto

Robusta roots (resulting in “Arabustas”) to blend the rigor of Robusta with the flavor profile of

Arabica – World Coffee Research and others are testing this innovation.

Where Robusta is not an option, cocoa could become an important alterative due to its

higher heat tolerance than coffee and similar production system. Indeed, lower-altitude coffee

farmers in Nicaragua, Peru, and elsewhere are already swapping some of their coffee trees for

cocoa. However, cocoa requires more water than coffee, making it a poor choice for regions

threatened by drought.

Climate Change Risk:

Risk Profiles for Select GeographiesIntroduction to Climate Risk Maps

Mesoamerica: Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua

South America: Colombia, Peru

East Africa: Uganda

Asia-Pacific: Indonesia

Introduction to Climate Risk Maps: Maps depict the severity of

expected changes to crop suitability, using a “stoplight” system.

Scientists created a tiered threat framework to distinguish among degrees of impact on

crop production. The following maps use this framework to depict the severity of expected

climate impacts on coffee production in specific geographies.

• Opportunity zone. Area will likely improve in suitability for target crop production.

Production may shift from transform to opportunities zones.

• Cope / minor adapt zone. Area will likely remain suitable for target crop production.

Farmers can address shifts in climate conditions with incremental practice changes.

• Adapt zone. Area will likely remain suitable for target crop production, although suitability

will decline. In some cases, area may shift from ideal to marginal. Farmers will need to adapt

their practices to remain commercially viable.

• Uncertainty zone. Model disagreement is high, usually driven by uncertain precipitation

trends. Farmers will likely need to adapt their practices to remain commercially viable.

• Transform zone. Area will no longer be suitable for target crop production without major,

perhaps uneconomical changes in practice. Farmers may find it more viable to transition to

alternative crops or livelihoods strategies, or to migrate.

Source: USAID Feed the Future Learning Community for Supply Chain Resilience, “An Introduction to Assessing

Climate Resilience in Smallholder Supply Chains,” 2018.

MesoamericaMesoamerica

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Source: CIAT

+2C in average annual

temperature

Up to 30% decrease in area suitable

for Arabica

Elevation suitable for Arabica moves

from 400-2000 masl 800-2500 masl

(note higher land may not be available)

Modest decrease, but

fewer dry months

[Mesoamerica] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely

significantly reduce the area suitable for Arabica production.

Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions

Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155; Bunn, C. et al. Climatic

Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x

[Honduras] Climate risk: Historical record show warmer and

generally drier conditions.

Source: Bunn, C., Lundy, M., Läderach, P., Girvetz, E., Castro, F. (2018). Climate Smart coffee in Honduras.

International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Cali.

CO. 27 p.; https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/climate-smart-coffee-honduras#.XA_hcGhKhPY.

Source: CIAT, “Climate-Smart Coffee in Honduras,” forthcoming ; Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts

in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4):

e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155

Climate models suggest a

warming trend of ~1.6-1.9°C

by the 2050s, combined with a

variable changes in

precipitation.

Honduras could lose ~30% of

its area suitable for coffee

production by the 2050s.

Eastern Honduras will likely be

most affected due to lower

elevation. Central Honduras will

likely see more moderate

impacts. Western Honduras will

be least affected, although,

again, lower altitudes may need

to transition out of coffee.

[Honduras] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely


Area suitable for Arabica production will migrate up-slope

~200 masl. However, opportunities to shift production to

higher elevations will be limited, as forested land above 1800

masl is protected under Honduran law.

[Mexico] Climate risk: Future projections show warmer and

drier conditions.

Climate models suggest a strong warming

trend. Projections suggest temperature

increases of ~1°C in southern Mexico and up to

2°C in the arid north by 2030, compared to the

19th century, with an additional 1°C warming by

mid-century.

Decreasing rainfall across much of the

country will likely cause water stress and

droughts. Important food-production states like

Sinaloa, Jalisco, Michoacán, Veracruz, and

Tabasco may see particularly severe drops in

average annual precipitation of -100 mm or

more. Coffee-growing areas may see a

reduction of average annual precipitation of -

70mm, although the number of dry months may

remain unchanged.

Source: World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Mexico. CSA Country Profiles for Latin

America Series. 2nd ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro

en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, CIAT, 2012.

[Mexico] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely


Mexico could lose ~20% of its area suitable for coffee production by the 2050s. Chiapas and

Oaxaca will see the greatest declines in suitability. Veracruz will see more modest impacts.

Area suitable for Arabica production will migrate up-slope, from 600-1700 masl today to

around 1200-2400 masl by 2050 – however, there may be no land available at these higher

altidues . Areas under 1000 masl will likely suffer the greatest declines in suitability by mid-century.

Source: Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Mexico, CIAT, 2012; World

Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Mexico. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America Series.

2nd ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group

[Nicaragua] Climate risk: Historical record and future

projections show warmer and drier conditions.

Historical data shows a strong warming

trend. Daytime temperatures have risen

~0.40°C per decade in deforested areas, an

above-average increase compared to other

tropical areas.

Warming will continue into the second half of

the century. Models project increases in the

annual mean temperatures of ~1°C+ by 2020s

and ~2°C by the 2050s.

Decreasing rainfall causes longer dry

seasons and droughts. In north-central

Nicaragua, the dry season now lasts up to 6-7

months. Models project annual rainfall declines

of 50mm+ in some regions, a decease of ~7%.

Source: World Bank; CIAT. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Nicaragua. CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, and Latin

America and the Caribbean Series. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en

Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, CIAT, 2012; Läderach et al, 2010, “Mesoamerican coffee,” CIAT.

[Nicaragua] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely


Nicaragua could lose up to 85% of

area suitable for coffee production

by the 2050s. Departments with the

largest anticipated losses (up to 30%)

are Carazo, Managua, and

Matagalpa. Higher elevations in the

departments of Jinotega and

Matagalpa will likely see the best

conditions for Arabica coffee.

Cocoa could become an important

alterative to coffee due to its higher

heat tolerance than Arabica coffee

and similar production system.

Indeed, cocoa suitability may increase

in the eastern part of the country.

Source: Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, CIAT, 2012; World Bank; CIAT.

2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Nicaragua. CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean

Series. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; Rahn et al, CIAT, 2013.

South AmericaSouth America

Colombia

Peru


temperature

16-20% decrease in area suitable for

Arabica


from 500-1500 masl 1000-2800 masl

(note higher land may not be available)

Up overall, mostly

during rainy season

[South America] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely

reduce the area suitable for Arabica production.




Source: World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Colombia. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America

Series. 2nd. ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal at

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm

[Colombia] Climate risk: Historical record and future

projections show warmer conditions with mixed rainfall trends.


trend. Daytime temperatures rose ~1°C across

most of the country over the last 20 years or so.

Warming will continue. Models project

additional increases in the annual mean

temperatures of 0.7-1.8°C+ by 2030.

Precipitation trends are uncertain. Parts of

the country, particularly in the north, may see

10%+ reductions in average annual rainfall by

the 2030s, leading to water stress. Other areas,

however, may see significant increases in

rainfall, perhaps leading to flooding and

landslides. The timing and intensity of

precipitation events will likely also change.

Source: World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Peru. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America Series.

2nd. ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal at

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm

[Peru] Climate risk: Historical record and future projections

show warmer conditions with mixed rainfall trends.

Historical data shows a warming trend. Daytime

temperatures rose up to ~1°C across most of the

country over the last 20 years or so. Many areas

saw fewer cool days and nights.

Warming will continue. Models project additional

increases in the annual mean temperatures of 1-

1.7°C+ by the 2030s.

Precipitation trends and projections are mixed.

Rainfall has increased along the northern coast and

mountains during the last 20 years, but has

declined in the tropical forest zone and the central

altiplano. These trends are projected to continue

more or less along the same trajectory. Areas may

see precipitation changes of 10-20% by the 2030s.

Source: CIAT, unpublished

[Peru] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable for

Arabica, although Peru will fare better than most (2030s).


[Peru] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable for

Arabica, although Peru will fare better than most (2050s).


[Peru] Climate risk: In remaining suitable areas, prevailing

climate conditions will shift, requiring some adaptation.

Current Coffee Climate Zones (2016) Projected Coffee Climate Zones (2030)

Source: Luis Gomero Osorio, “Identificación, selección y descripción de las mejores prácticas agronómicas que promuevan

la resiliencia contra el cambio climático, “ Rainforest Alliance internal report, 2017.

[Peru] Climate risk: During focus groups, farmers confirmed

hotter, drier weather with more severe events in Cajamarca.

Climate Conditions Observed Changes Observed Impacts on Coffee Farms

Temperature • Hotter • More intense outbreaks of rust and

coffee bean borer at lower altitudes

• “Burned” cherries at lower altitudes

(1000-1300 masl) or without shade

Precipitation • Less rain, but sometimes more

intense rains during a shorter

period; less water in local

waterways

• Variable rainy season from year to

year

• Reduced cherry size and quality (cup

scores of 60-75)

• Increased plant stress, reducing

average lifespan by 5-6 years

Farmers at low altitudes now have drip

irrigation for droughts; other have

abandoned their farms due to droughts

Severe Weather • Frequent hail (new phenomenon)

• Stronger winds

• Damage to cherries (knocked off trees)

• Damage to shade and coffee trees

(knocking trees down)

Observations from farmers in the Chirinos and San José de Lourdes Districts, San Ignacio

Province, Cajamarca Region shared during focus groups with Rainforest Alliance in late 2016

East AfricaUganda


014-1306-x


temperature

9-25% decrease in area suitable for

Arabica


from 400-2000 masl 800-2500

masl

Modest increase, with

shorter dry season

[East Africa] Climate risk: Heat will likely cause more

moderate reductions in area suitable for Arabica production.




[Uganda] Climate risk: Historical record and future projections

show warmer conditions with mixed precipitation trends.


trend. Daytime temperatures rose between

1960 and 2010 at an average rate of 0.28°C per

decade.

Warming will continue into the second half of

the century. Models project increases in the

annual mean temperatures of ~2°C by the

2050s.

Precipitation trends and projections are

mixed and quite uncertain. Rainfall has

increased in certain parts of the country and

declined in others; projections suggest an

increase. Overall, precipitation is likely to be

increasingly erratic and intense, leading to both

flooding and droughts in different zones.

Source: CIAT; BFS/USAID. 2017. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Uganda. CSA Country Profiles for Africa Series. CIAT; Bureau for

Food Security, United States Agency for International Development (BFS/ USAID), Washington, D.C.; the World Bank Climate

Change Knowledge Portal at http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm

Source: Laurence Jassogne, Peter Laderach, Piet Van Asten, “The Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons

from a Case Study in the Rwenzori Mountains,” Oxfam Research Reports, April 2013; Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera,

O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x

[Uganda] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable

for coffee, concentrating production along the Rwandan border.

Uganda will likely lose

~25% of area suitable for

Arabica coffee production

by the 2050s. Areas below

1400 masl would likely lose

suitability entirely.

Robusta coffee may see

similar losses. Rising

temperatures may push many

areas above even Robusta’s

heat tolerance. East Africa as

a region may lose between

15-30% of the area currently

suitable for Robusta.

Asia-PacificIndonesia

+1.7-1.8C in average

annual temperature

9-28% decrease in area

suitable for Arabica

Elevation suitable for Arabica

moves up around 300 masl

Modest increase




[Asia-Pacific] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area

suitable; Asian origins may suffer more than the Pacific origins.

Indonesia: Projected climate impacts on coffee suitability (2050s)

Appendix

Coffee’s Climate Envelope: Coffee arabica thrives within a narrow climate window

Climate determines where coffee grows and thrives. Coffee arabica in particular needs specific

climate conditions and is highly sensitive to weather shocks and gradual climate change. Producers

will see yield and/or quality decline if the climate surpasses critical parameters.

Climate Parameter Optimal Range Impact if Go Outside Optimal Range

Annual mean

temperature

~20°C (daytime highs ~22°C and

nighttime lows ~18°C)

Yield/quality start with temps >25°C and intensify

>30°C due to wilting/defoliation and increased

pest/disease incidence; frost damages or kills plant

** Study in Tanzania found productivity losses of

~137 kg/ha for every 1°C rise in mean minimum

nighttime temperature ***

Annual rainfall /

maximum dry period

1200+ mm /

3 months

If drier, significant yield/quality losses (smaller,

uneven, lighter, or less developed beans) from

irregular flowering or plant wilting/defoliation

Precipitation patterns Short dry season (

Geographic locations and change in climatic characteristics by 2050s.

Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, Läderach P, Bunn C, Obersteiner M, Schroth G (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea

arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155

Coffee’s Climate Envelope: All coffee origins will see changes

in conditions critical for Arabica by the 2050s.

coffee in the age of climate change: risks & potential impacts · 2019. 6. 19. · some countries...

Documents