cochrane systematic reviews & cochrane oral health group luisa fernandez anne-marie glenny...
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Cochrane Systematic Reviews & Cochrane Oral Health Group
Luisa FernandezAnne-Marie Glenny
Cochrane Oral Health Group, University Dental Hospital of Manchester
Emma TavenderCochrane EPOC Satellite, Melbourne Australia
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Aims
To discuss the role of Cochrane systematic reviews and meta-analyses
Cochrane Oral Health Group – progress, undertaking a systematic review with the group & looking to the future
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Cochrane Systematic Reviews & Oral Health
Anne-Marie GlennyCochrane Oral Health Group, University Dental Hospital of Manchester
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What are systematic reviews?
• The process of systematically locating, appraising and synthesising evidence from scientific studies in order to obtain a reliable overview
• Aim to find all studies addressing the review’s question using an objective and transparent process
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Why are they important ?
• Reduce large quantities of information into manageable portions
• Formulate policy and develop guidelines• Efficient use of resources• Increased power/precision• Limit bias and improve accuracy
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Cumulative 0.5 1 2Year RCT Pts I I I I I I I I I I I
1 231960 2 85
1965 3 149
4 1381970 7 1783
10 2544 11 26511975 15 3311 17 3929 22 5452
23 57671980
27 6125 30 63461985 33 6571 43 21050 54 22051 65 47185 67 475311990 70 48154
Ro
uti
ne
Sp
ecif
ic
Rar
e/N
ever
Exp
erim
enta
l
No
t M
enti
on
ed
21
8
1 10
1 2
2 8
7
8
1 12
1 8 4
1 7 3
5 2 2 1
15 8 1
6 1
p<.01
p<.001
p<.00001
Odds Ratio (Log Scale)
Favours Treatment Favours Control
Textbook/ReviewRecommendations
A. Thrombolytic Therapy
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Systematic review
• Structured process involving several steps:1. Well formulated question
2. Comprehensive data search
3. Unbiased selection and abstraction process
4. Validity assessment of papers
5. Synthesis of data
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1. Well formulated question
• Participants
• Interventions (Exposure)
• Comparisons
• Outcomes
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1. Well formulated question
• Participants• Interventions• Comparisons• Outcomes
Pit and fissure sealants versus placebo for the prevention of dental caries in permanent teeth in children and adolescents
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Inclusion criteria
• Participants
• Interventions
• Comparisons
• Outcomes
• Study design/methodological quality
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What type of study design?
How effective is paracetamol at reducing pain?
Does smoking increase the risk of oral cancer?
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STRONG Experimental studies/ clinical trialsRandomised controlled trialsNon-randomised controlled trials
Observational studies
CohortsCase-controlsCross-sectional surveysCase seriesCase reports
WEAK Expert opinion, consensus
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2. Search strategy
• Needs to be as comprehensive as possible• Consider
– Electronic databases (Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Medline, Embase)
– Reference lists
– Handsearching
– English language/non-English language
– Sources of ongoing and/or unpublished studies
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Reporting biases
• Statistically significant ‘positive’ results are; - more likely to be published
- publication bias
- more likely to be published rapidly- time lag bias
- more likely to be published in English- language bias
- more likely to be cited by others- citation bias
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3. Unbiased selection and data abstraction process
• Selection of relevant papers
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3. Unbiased selection and data abstraction process
• Selection of relevant papers
• Data abstraction/extraction
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Data extraction is:
• Time consuming
• Often subjective
• Prone to error
• Often difficult
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3. Unbiased selection and abstraction process
• Predefined data abstraction form
• Independently and in duplicate
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4. Validity assessment
• Can be used;– As a threshold for inclusion of studies– As a possible explanation for differences in
results between trials– In sensitivity analyses– As weights in statistical analysis of the results
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Quality assessment tools
• Composite scales - assign numerical value to individual items to provide overall estimate of quality – problematic
• Component approach - assesses relevant methodological aspects individually (e.g randomisation, blinding, drop-outs) - preferred
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4. Validity assessment
• Process should be conducted independently by at least two reviewers
• Results of the quality assessment should be reflected in the analysis
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5. Study synthesis
• Appropriate pooling– qualitative (narrative)– quantitative (meta-analysis)
– inappropriate when data are sparse or heterogeneity exists
– Clear presentation of individual studies included in the review
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Meta-analysis
• The process of using statistical methods to combine the results of different studies.
• The aim is to integrate the findings, pool the data, and identify the overall trend of results
(Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1995)
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What is a meta-analysis?
Optional part of a systematic review
Systematic reviews
Meta-analyses
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When can/should you do a meta-analysis?
• When more than one study has estimated an effect• When there are no differences in the study
characteristics that are likely to substantially affect outcome
• When the outcome has been measured in similar ways
• When the data are available (beware when only some data are available)
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Summary statistic for each study
• Calculate a single summary statistic to represent the effect found in each study
- usually displayed with 95% confidence intervals (CI)
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Weighting studies
• More weight to the studies which give us more information– More participants– More events– Lower variance
• Weight is proportional to inverse variance
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Displaying results graphically
• Forest plots– Commonly used
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there’s a label to tellyou what the comparisonis and what the outcomeof interest is
Alderson 2002
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At the bottom there’sa horizontal line. This is the scale measuringthe treatment effect.Here the outcome is deathand towards the left thescale is less than one,meaning the treatmenthas made death lesslikely.
Take care to read whatthe labels say – things tothe left do not always meanthe treatment is better thanthe control.
Alderson 2002
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The vertical line in themiddle is where thetreatment and control have the same effect – there is no differencebetween the two
Alderson 2002
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For each study there is an id
The data foreach trial are here, divided into the experimental and control groups
This is the % weightgiven to thisstudy in the pooled analysis
Alderson 2002
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•Each study is given a blob, placed where the data measure the effect.•The size of the blob is proportional to the % weight •The horizontal line is called a confidence interval and is a measure of how we think the result of this study might vary with the play of chance. •The wider the horizontal line is, the less confident we are of the observed effect.
The label above the graph tells you what statistic has been used
The data shown in the graph are also given numerically
Alderson 2002
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The pooled analysis is given a diamond shapewhere the widest bit in the middle is located at the calculated best guess (point estimate), and the horizontal width is the confidence interval
Note on interpretation
If the confidence interval crosses the line of no effect, this is equivalent to saying that we have found no statistically significant difference in the effects of the two interventions
Alderson 2002
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Heterogeneity
• Clinical heterogeneity – differences in trial characteristics
• Statistical heterogeneity - the variability in the reported effect sizes between studies
– how similar are the results?
– are the differences among the results of the trials greater than could be expected by chance alone?
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Heterogeneity
Odds ratio (95% CI)
1 1
Odds ratio (95% CI)
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Heterogeneity
• Chi-squared test of heterogeneity
• P<0.1 demonstrates statistically significant heterogeneity– may not be appropriate to pool data
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Subgroup analyses
• Where it is suspected in advance that certain features may alter the effect of an intervention
Example – women – a particular age group– those with a specific disease subtype
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Subgroup analysis
• Often misleading-
• Is there indirect evidence in support of a difference?
• Did the hypothesis about the difference precede rather than follow the analysis?
• Is the subgroup analysis one of a small number of hypotheses tested?
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Sensitivity analysis
• Does result change according to small variations in the data and methods?– Choice of treatment effects or method for
pooling– Inclusion/exclusion of dubious data– Inclusion/exclusion of trials
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A common sensitivity analysis is to repeat the analysis taking out lower quality trials
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Useful websites;
http://www.shef.ac.uk/~scharr/ir/netting/(comprehensive list of E.B.P. websites and links)
http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/crd– CRD manual on how to conduct a systematic review– DARE - database of abstracts of reviews of effectiveness
http://www.cochrane.org– reviewer’s handbook– Cochrane Library (abstracts only)
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Cochrane Oral Health Group – looking to the future
Emma TavenderCochrane EPOC Satellite, Melbourne Australia
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Aims
• Progress of the group
• Process of undertaking a systematic review with the group & support available
• Challenges for the future
• Questions & answers
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Cochrane Oral Health Group Include all RCTs of oral health broadly conceived to include
the prevention, treatment and rehabilitation of oral, dental and craniofacial diseases and disorders
Achievements• 624 members from 40 countries
• Panel of referees
• Set up Specialised Register of Trials (21,000)
• Handsearching programme
• Annual Evidence Based Dental Practice Course
• NIDCR funding for oral cancer reviews
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Oral Health Group Reviews
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cochrane Library Issue
Nu
mb
er o
f Pu
blic
atio
ns
Updates
Reviews
Protocols
68 Protocols
54 Reviews
21 Updates
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Growth of Oral Health Group Trials RegisterJanuary 1998 – January 2006
3946
5801
7756
12248
1476
918
245 201
13208
92
Reports of Trials
Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06
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Editorial Process• Register title
• Prepare protocol
• Editorial and external review of protocol
• Protocol entered on Cochrane Library
• Identify trials
• Complete systematic review
• Peer review of systematic review
• Systematic review entered on Library
• Update the review regularly (every 2 years)
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Editorial support• Register title
– Check for overlap– Find co-reviewers with similar interests– Assigned Contact Editor
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Editorial support• Prepare protocol
– Reviewers Handbook – RevMan software/support at editorial base– Protocol training workshop (free of charge)– Online learning materials– Help with developing search strategy (TSC)
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Editorial Support• Identify trials
• Complete systematic review– Search the OHG Trials Register
– Analysis workshop (free of charge)
– Statistical & methodological support from editorial base
– Help with translations
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Editorial support• Update the review regularly
– Help with identifying new trials– Procedures for changing lead author
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Challenges for the future
• Prioritisation of reviews
• Diagnostic reviews
• Reviews of no trials – including other levels of evidence?
• Umbrella reviews
• Funding
• Dissemination
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Challenges for the future
• Prioritisation of reviews– Increasing number of reviews/overlap– Usefulness – answering the right questions for
clinicians, consumers, funders, policy makers?– NIDCR funding of oral cancer reviews– OHG Symposium – identify questions/topics– Future – ways of identifying priorities for
consumers etc
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Challenges for the future
• Diagnostic reviews– Important area within dentistry– Cochrane Diagnostic Reviews of Test Accuracy
Initiative– 4 phases: development of materials, piloting,
implementation & publication– Piloting phase – 10 test review teams– Training & implementation 2007
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Challenges for the future
• Reviews of no trials – including other levels of evidence?– Scope of OHG includes RCTs and Quasi RCTs– Reviews eg. Endocarditis included other levels
of evidence– OHG currently developing guidance for
reviewers on how to deal with reviews of no trials and when to include other levels
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Challenges for the future
• Umbrella reviews– Combine the findings of a number of related
reviews so information is in one document– Incorporate summary of findings tables– RevMan 5 released in 2007 will include this
feature– Cochrane Umbrella Reviews Working Group
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Challenges for the future
• Funding– 5 years funding from DoH, UK– Covers salary of staff, administration at
editorial base– NIDCR grant to undertake series of oral cancer
reviews– NICE, Italian Govn., vCIOH– Alternative methods?
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Challenges for the future
• Dissemination– The Cochrane Library– Journal articles & by products – Courses/conferences– Incorporation in guidelines (HTA, NICE,
SIGN)– Improve visibiltiy and utilisation of reviews
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Any questions?