coastal population growth

Coastal Trends Report Series

Population Trends Along theCoastal United States: 1980-2008 U.S. Department of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Ocean Service

Cover Photo: Ocean City, MD; Kevin Fleming, CorbisPanel Photo: North Miami Beach, FL; Mr. William Folsom, NMFS/NOAAInside Cover Photo: Charleston, SC; K. Crossett, NOS/NOAA

c

Assessing the effects of current and projected population growth and developmentin the nation’s coastal areas has been a continuing effort within the SpecialProjects office of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. The mission of Special Projectsis to enhance the performance and capacity of NOAA’s National Ocean Service andits partners through strategic problem solving, integration, and innovation, as wellas to ensure more effective and efficient delivery of products and services to thecoastal stewardship community. Special Projects conducts analyses andassessments for coastal areas and works to identify issues and solutions, assembleand synthesize data, evaluate and prioritize options, and develop products thatsupport quality coastal resource management.

This report updates a previous report issued by Special Projects that was compiledover a decade ago. It provides coastal population data, trends, and projections,and is intended to help provide insight as to where coastal population has occurredin the past few decades and where it is likely to occur in the next five years. Thisreport will also be included in the Assessments section of NOAA’s forthcomingSpatial Trends in Coastal Socioeconomics (STICS) Web site(http://stics.noaa.gov).

Population Trends Alongthe Coastal United States:

1980-2008

Kristen M. CrossettThomas J. Culliton

Peter C. WileyTimothy R. Goodspeed

September 2004

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNOAA’s National Ocean ServiceManagement and Budget Office

Special Projects

Coastal Trends Report Series

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3

IntroductionGeographic UnitsPopulation Data

National OverviewRegional and State TrendsPopulation in Coastal CountiesBuilding Along the CoastCharacteristics of the Coastal Population

Regional TrendsNortheast RegionSoutheast RegionGulf of Mexico RegionPacific RegionGreat Lakes Region

Population by Coastal Watershed

Conclusion

References

Appendix A. Population ChangeAppendix B. Total Housing UnitsAppendix C. NortheastAppendix D. SoutheastAppendix E. Gulf of MexicoAppendix F. PacificAppendix G. Great Lakes

3132

3639

4245

FiguresFigure 1. Regional distribution of nation’s coastal population

Figure 2. Coastal county population in 2003Figure 3. Coastal county percent population change in 2003Figure 4. Population density of the United States, coastal states, coastal counties, and noncoastal counties from 1980 to 2008Figure 5. Coastal county population density in 2003Figure 6. Seasonal housing units in 2000Figure 7. Population by age groupFigure 8. Coastal and noncoastal median household income by region in 2000Figure 9. Median household income in 2000Figure 10. Projected population change in the Northeast region, 2003-2008Figure 11. Projected percent population change in the Northeast region, 2003-2008Figure 12. Projected population change in the Southeast region, 2003-2008Figure 13. Projected percent population change in the Southeast region, 2003-2008Figure 14. Projected population change in the Gulf of Mexico region, 2003-2008Figure 15. Projected percent population change in the Gulf of Mexico region, 2003-2008

TablesTable 1. Coastal geographic regions, coastal states, and

coastal countiesTable 2. Leading states in coastal population growth,

1980-2003Table 3. Leading coastal states in number of building

permits issued from 1998 to 2002

Figure 16. Projected population change in the Pacific region, 2003-2008

Figure 18. Projected population change in the Great Lakes region, 2003-2008

Figure 19. Projected percent population change in the Great Lakes region, 2003-2008

Figure 17. Projected percent population change in the Pacific region, 2003-2008

Figure 20. Ten most populated coastal watersheds with their associated population density for 2000

Figure 21. Population change in coastal watersheds, 1980-2000

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Table of Contents

South Florida; South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD)

Coastal areas are also subject to major populationinfluxes during peak vacation periods. Ocean City, MD,for example, had almost 4 million seasonal visitorsbetween the Memorial Day and Labor Day holidays in2003 (Ocean City Public Relations Office, 2004). Withmore people comes the need for increased infrastructure,which may lead to even more negative effects on naturalresources (National Safety Council, 1998). In the nextfew decades, coastal areas will also see a growing

proportion of older Americans and anunprecedented number of Americansreaching retirement age. This also hasthe potential to place demands oncoastal resources as there will be moretime for people to enjoy the manycoastal amenities (Culliton, 1998).

This report updates a previous population report issuedby the National Ocean Service, NOAA (Culliton et al.,1990) and focuses on population change along ournation’s coast from 1980 to 2008. Historical populationtrends and short-term projections of population changein the nation’s coastal areas are provided. It isanticipated that coastal decision makers andstakeholders will use this update to enhance coastalmanagement.

Coastal areas are home to a wealth of naturalresources and are rich with diverse species, habitattypes, and nutrients (WRI, 2000). They also sustaina wealth of economic activity. Employment, recreationand tourism, waterborne commerce, and energy andmineral production are driving forces of populationmigration to these areas (Bookman et al., 1999; TheHeinz Center, 2000; U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy,2004). Coastal management policies seek to balanceeconomic growth and environmental protection. Thevalue of coastal resources is illustrated in the breadthand depth of their use. Ironically, the qualities thatmake them so desirable are the very ones that haveled to their endangerment.

Coastal ecosystems are pressured by population growth,leaving them vulnerable to pollution, habitat degradationand loss, overfishing, invasive species, and increasedcoastal hazards such as sea-level rise (WRI, 2000;Hinrichsen, 1998; National Safety Council, 1998). It wasestimated that in 2003, approximately 153 millionpeople (53 percent of the nation’s population) lived in the673 U.S. coastal counties, an increase of 33 millionpeople since 1980. With such a large percentage of thepopulation living in coastal areas, itis no wonder that 10 of the 15 mostpopulous cities in the United Statesare located in coastal counties (U.S.Census Bureau, 2001d).

Since 1980, coastal populationgrowth has generally reflected the same rate of growthas the entire nation, but in the limited space of coastalcounties. This increasing density, coupled with the fast-growing economy of coastal areas (Colgan, 2004), willmake the task of managing coastal resourcesincreasingly difficult, especially with the nation’s coastalpopulation expected to increase by more than 7 millionby 2008 and 12 million by 2015 (W&PE, 2003).

7

Introduction

1

An estimated 153million people lived in

coastal counties in 2003.

1

Physical boundaries and natural characteristics of thelandscape, such as watersheds, provide meaningfulgeographic areas to evaluate the environmentalconsequences of a growing population. However, localand community-level decisions and legislation are usuallymade within the frame of political boundaries. The U.S.Census Bureau compiles population data using severaldifferent geographic units. There are 30 coastal states inthe United States containing a total of 673 coastalcounties, boroughs, parishes, or county equivalents.NOAA’s Special Projects office defines a county as coastalif one of the following criteria is met: (1) at a minimum,15 percent of the county’s total land area is locatedwithin a coastal watershed or (2) a portion of or an entirecounty accounts for at least 15 percent of a coastalcataloging unit. For the purposes of this report, coastalstates and counties are grouped into five regions:Northeast, Southeast, Gulf of Mexico, Pacific, and GreatLakes. The number of states and coastal countiescontained in each region is shown below.

to the state level and compared both to state projectionsdeveloped by the U.S. Census Bureau and to each other.At the state level, all three datasets were comparable,not demonstrating significant differences. After furtheranalyses, the Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., datasetdemonstrated more conservative population projectionestimates, and was used for this report.

Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., employs a four-stepprocess to generate county population projections. First,forecasts of total United States variables such as income,earnings, population, and inflation are made. Second,the country is divided into 172 Economic Areas (EA).Employment is projected and used to estimate earningswithin each EA. EAs are defined by the Bureau ofEconomic Analysis to meet minimum size and othercriteria necessary to facilitate regional analyses such asprojections. County to county commuting flows areanalyzed in defining the EA boundaries in an effort toensure that, to the extent possible, each EA is both theplace of work and the place of residence for its labor force(Johnson, 1995). Third, total population for each EA isprojected based on net migration rates projected fromemployment opportunities. Last, following this processusing EAs as the control data, county populationprojections are generated (W&PE, 2003).

Making estimates of future data is not an exact science.The methods Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., employto make projections are based on analysis of historicaldata. Consequently, limitations are inherent to the data,and projections should not be interpreted as futurepredictions. Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. (2003)notes that economic and demographic events may resultin outcomes different from the projections and thatlimitations may result from making projections for smallgeographic areas. Ultimately, the projections presentedin this report are not intended to highlight the projectedpopulation change of individual counties but rather topresent, on a regional basis, where change is likely tooccur.

Population data for U.S. counties for 1980, 1990, 2000,and 2003 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau.The U.S. Census Bureau does not make populationprojections for the county level, but rather at the stateand national levels. County-level population projectionswere obtained from three private firms and compared.Datasets from Geolytics, Inc., NPA Data Services, Inc.,and Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., were aggregated

TABLE 1. Coastal geographic regions, states, and counties

Source: National Ocean Service/NOAA

Geographic Units

Population Data

72

Introduction

RegionNumberof States

Number ofCoastal Counties

114658

18010314488

158

NortheastSoutheastGulf of MexicoPacificGreat Lakes

Land Area(Sq. Mi.)

82,12463,516

116,644511,073115,418

Our coasts are among the most rapidly growing anddeveloped areas in the nation. In 2003, the coastalpopulation was greatest in the Northeast and Pacificregions, followed by the Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, andfinally the Southeast. Figure 1 shows the regionaldistribution of coastal population in 2003. Figure 2 showsthe distribution of this population on a county basis.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Great Lakes18%

Pacific26%

Gulf ofMexico13%

Southeast9%

Northeast34%

7

Total coastal population between the years 1980 and2003 increased by 33 million people or 28 percent,roughly consistent with the nation’s rate of increase.Coastal population within the Pacific region showed thelargest gain during this time with almost 12 millionpeople, followed by the Northeast with 8 million people.The Southeast region, however, exhibited the largest rateof change with a 58 percent increase, followed by thePacific at 46 percent, and the Gulf of Mexico at 45percent. The rate of growth in the Northeast and GreatLakes regions was considerably smaller with 18 percentand 6 percent increases, respectively. Percent populationchange in coastal counties is presented in Figure 3.

The Southeast has increasingly become a leadingdestination for retirees and job-seekers. Between theyears 1995 and 2000, the Census Bureau reported thatthe highest levels of migration were to states that fallwithin the Southeast region and the Gulf of Mexicoregion, particularly to Florida, Georgia, and NorthCarolina (Franklin, 2003).

In contrast, the lowest levels of migration were to statesfound in the Northeast region. Additionally, New York,Pennsylvania, and New Jersey saw a considerableamount of population lost to out-migration during thisperiod (Franklin, 2003).

The leading states in terms of absolute and percentcoastal population change during the past two decadesare found in Table 2. California led in coastal populationchange, increasing by 9.9 million people, over twice thegrowth of any other state (with the exception of Florida).This represents an increase of 1,179 persons every dayin California’s coastal areas. The coastal populationchange in Florida ranks second, accounting for anadditional 7.1 million people. Other leaders in coastalpopulation change included Texas, Washington, andMichigan. Of the states listed, half are within theNortheast region alone.

As one of the main drivers of coastal population increasein the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico regions, Floridashows the greatest percent population change between1980 and 2003, reaching nearly 75 percent. Alaska andWashington also show high rates of growth, increasing by63 percent and 54 percent, respectively.

National Overview

FIGURE 1. Regional distribution of the nation’s coastal populationin 2003

Regional and State Trends

3

StateTotal Change

(Million Persons) StatePercentChange

CaliforniaFloridaTexasWashingtonVirginiaNew YorkNew JerseyMarylandMichiganMassachusetts

FloridaAlaskaWashingtonTexasVirginiaCaliforniaNew HampshireDelawareGeorgiaSouth Carolina

9.97.12.51.71.61.61.21.20.80.7

75635452484746383533

TABLE 2. Leading states in coastal population growth, 1980-2003


FIGURE 2. Coastal county population in 2003Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Leading Coastal Counties in Population in 2003 (Millions)

Los Angeles, CA 9.9Cook, IL 5.4

Harris, TX 3.6Orange, CA 3.0

San Diego, CAKings (Brooklyn), NY

2.92.5

74

National Overview

FIGURE 3. Coastal county percent population changein 2003Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Leading Coastal Counties in PercentPopulation Change, 1980 to 2003

Flagler, FL 470Osceola, FL 318

Matanuska-Susitna, AK 284Camden, GA 240

Collier, FLHernando, FL

233223

75

National Overview

Population Trends leading coastal county in population increase in the yearsto come (2003-2008). It, along with Orange, SanBernardino, and Riverside counties, CA, will account for12 percent of the nation’s expected total coastalpopulation increase. Counties in South Florida (Broward,Palm Beach, Orange, and Miami-Dade) along with HarrisCounty, TX, also are anticipated to experience majorgrowth during this period.

The largest rate of change from 1980 to 2003 occurredin coastal counties found in Florida,Alaska, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia.Flagler County, FL, located in theSoutheast, increased 470 percent,followed by Osceola County, FL, at318 percent. Several additionalcounties in Florida experiencedsubstantial rates of increase during

this time as well. Florida has increasingly become a“retirement magnet,” a migratory destination for retireesin recent decades (Frey, 2003). The largest state-to-state migration between 1995 to 2000, for example, wasfrom New York to Florida, reflecting this migratory trend(Perry, 2003).

Despite the continual population growth in coastalcounties, recent trends have also shown an increase inmigration from coastal states to noncoastal states. Forinstance, from 1995 to 2000, California contributed tolarge migration flows to Nevada and Arizona (attributedto retiree migration and other economic factors) (Perry,2003). In addition, California has contributed to at leastone-third of Colorado’s net migration during this period(Perry, 2003). At the county level, Maricopa County, AZ,and Clark County, NV, are expected to be two of the fourleading counties in population growth in the entire UnitedStates from 2003 to 2008. Overall, from 1990-2003,noncoastal counties emerged as having a greaterpopulation increase than coastal counties. This greaterpopulation growth and percent change in noncoastalcounties is expected to continue from 2003 to 2008.

Population in Coastal Counties

76

National Overview

Coastal counties constitute only 17 percent of the totalland area of the United States (not including Alaska), butaccount for 53 percent of the total population. This ratioof coastal county population to the population of theUnited States as a whole has remained relatively stable(between approximately 52 and 54 percent) since 1970.Coastal county population is not growing significantlyfaster than noncoastal population, but rather, it is thecontinued population growth in thelimited land area of coastal countiesthat is of growing importance andthe focus of increasing attention.

Of the 10 coastal counties thatexperienced the greatest increasesin population from 1980 to 2003, six

Coastal counties contain53% of the nation’s

population, yet, excludingAlaska, account for only17% of U.S. land area.

Washington, DC; Hisham S. Ibrahim/Getty Images

are in California, threeare in Florida, and one isin Texas. The combinedpopulation increase ofthese 10 counties aloneaccounts for 30 percentof the coastal populationgrowth during thisperiod. Los Angeles, CA,had the highest growthoverall, followed byHarris, TX, and Riverside,CA. In contrast,approximately 14 percentof all U.S. coastalcounties (the majoritylocated in the GreatLakes and Northeastregions) lost population.

It is projected that SanDiego, CA, will be the

San Francisco, CA; Jeremy Woodhouse/Getty Images

Leading States in Coastal PopulationDensity in 2003 (Persons per Square Mile)

IllinoisNew JerseyRhode Island

4,3301,2081,030

MassachusettsPennsylvaniaConnecticut

939794719

UnitedStates

CoastalStates

CoastalCounties

NoncoastalCounties

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

01980 1990 2000 20082003

Pers

ons

per

Squ

are

Mile

7

Population Density

7

National Overview

Most of the nation’s most densely populated areas arelocated along the coast. In fact, 23 of the 25 mostdensely populated U.S. counties are coastal. Coastalcounties average 300 persons per square mile, muchhigher than the national average of 98 persons persquare mile (population density values presented in thisreport exclude Alaska because its extensive coastal landarea dilutes the national average). The most denselypopulated counties in the nation, New York (Manhattan),Kings (Brooklyn), Bronx, and Queens comprise portionsof New York City. Together, these counties averagealmost 39 thousand persons per square mile.

Since 1980, population density has increased in coastalcounties by 65 persons per square mile, or by 28 percent.By 2008, it is expected to increase by 13 persons persquare mile, or 4 percent. The ratio of national,

FIGURE 4. Population density of the United States, coastalstates, coastal counties and noncoastal counties from 1980to 2008

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and W&PE, Inc.

coastal state, and noncoastal county population densityto coastal population density has remained relativelyconstant since 1980 (only fluctuating by fractions of apercent). Figure 4 demonstrates this trend. Forexample, the population density of the nation as a wholehas been approximately one-third that of coastalcounties throughout this period. The population densityof noncoastal counties has remained between 18% and19% of coastal county population density. Figure 5shows the population density of coastal countiesnationwide.

FIGURE 5. Coastal county population density in 2003


NewYork, NYKings, NY

Bronx, NYQueens, NY

San Francisco, CAHudson, NJ

1613

Leading Coastal Counties in PopulationDensity in 2003 (Thousands of Persons per Square Mile)

6835

3220

78

National Overview

7

In 2000, coastal counties contained 52 percent of thenation’s total housing supply (comparable to theproportion of coastal population to total U.S.population). The leading states in total housing units incoastal counties were California, Florida, and New York.Together, these states comprised 41 percent of thecoastal county total.

At the county level, Los Angeles County, CA, had thehighest number of housing units at approximately 3.3million, double that of any other county except CookCounty, IL, with 2.1 million housing units. Total housingunits within coastal counties are shown in Appendix B.

Commercial, hotel, and recreational construction is animportant component of the coastal economy andcontributes significantly to overall development in someareas.

The construction of single-family and multi-family homesmay act as an indicator of both economic growth as wellas increased “sprawl” along the coastline. The numberof building permits issued for homes helps pinpoint wherethe greatest amount of residential development hasoccurred. In coastal counties from 1999 to 2003, 2.8million building permits were issued for the constructionof single-family housing units (43% of the nation’s total)and 1 million building permits were issued for the

construction of multi-family housingunits (51% of the nation’s total). Withinthis five-year period, the leading statesin single-family unit construction werefound in all five regions. Florida andCalifornia combined made up 37% of allpermits issued for single-family units

and 42% of all multi-family units in coastal counties (U.S.Census Bureau, 2000, 2001a, 2002, 2003a, 2004). Table3 shows the 10 leading states in coastal residentialhousing construction during this five-year period.

TABLE 3. Leading coastal states in building permits issued forsingle-family and multi-family housing units from 1999 to 2003.

One component of total housingunits is seasonal or vacationhomes. The location and growthin the number of seasonalhousing units indicate areaswhere people congregate seasonally or for short periods.In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonalhomes in coastal counties (54 percent of the nation’stotal). Florida had the largest number of seasonalhousing units, 24 percent of the coastal county total,followed by Michigan, California, and New York. Figure 6shows total seasonal housing units within coastalcounties in 2000.

Several coastal counties that are low in populationemerge as being popular seasonal destinations. Forinstance, looking beyond the dominance of Florida andSouthern California, large numbers of seasonal homesare found in Maine, the Outer Banks of North Carolina,northern Michigan, Maryland, and Delaware (Figure 6).It is important to note that some coastal counties andcommunities are subject to intense development notindicated by total housing or seasonal housing numbers.


Housing

Seasonal Housing

Building Permits

Building Along the Coast

9

National Overview

More than 1,540 single-family housing units are

permitted for constructionevery day in coastal counties.

State

Building Permits forSingle-Family Units

(Thousands) StateFloridaCaliforniaTexasMichiganVirginiaWashingtonNew JerseyMarylandNew YorkPennsylvania

FloridaCaliforniaNew YorkTexasWashingtonIllinoisNew JerseyVirginiaMichiganMaryland

60744319919314211811310510190

26418610366534542403626

Building Permits forMulti-Family Units

(Thousands)

FIGURE 6. Seasonal housing units in 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Leading States in Coastal Seasonal Housing in 2000 (Thousands)

Florida 506Michigan 230

California 177New York 173

New Jersey 115Massachusetts 95

710

National Overview

7

The breakdown of age groups can be a useful method togauge the direction of population in coastal counties withregard to community lifestyle priorities (e.g., activemarine recreation, family-oriented activities, senior-oriented features). Figure 7 provides a breakdown of agegroups in 2000 for coastal and noncoastalcounties. The majority of thepopulation within each age grouplives in coastal counties. Thedifference between coastal andnoncoastal county population islargest in the under-16 age groupand in the 35-44 age group, whichencompasses a significant portionof the Baby Boomer generation. Inthese age groups, coastal county population exceedednoncoastal population by approximately 3.2 and 3.3million persons, respectively. In 2000, Baby Boomersranged in age from 36 to 54 (Center for HealthCommunication, Harvard School of Public Health, 2004).

In coastal counties, over the 20-year period from 1980to 2000, the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups saw

a significant increase in population, rising from 21percent of the total coastal population to 30 percent ofthe total coastal population. The proportion of youngadults (aged 18-24) fell from 13 percent to 9 percent ofthe total during this same time period. However, in theyear 2000, the proportion of the population within eachage group that resided in coastal counties (and withineach specific coastal region) was relatively consistent

with the national average (fallingwithin 1 to 2 percent).

The oldest age group (65 and older)is often one of special interestbecause of the assumption that olderAmericans retire to warmer areasnear the ocean. The data do not showany great change over the years, as

this group increased 1 percent of the total coastalpopulation each decade (from 1980 to 2000). Of growingattention, however, is the number of Americans that willenter the 65 and over age group in the upcomingdecades.

Age

FIGURE 7. Population by age group in coastal and noncoastalcounties in 2000


Characteristics of the Coastal Population

11

National Overview

20

15

10

5

0<16 16-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Groups

25

35

30

Num

ber

of P

erso

ns

(Mill

ions)

Coastal Counties Noncoastal Counties

Patuxent River, Maryland; Mary Holinger NODC/NOAA

Between 1980 and 2000,middle-aged adults rosefrom 21 to 30 percent of

the populationin coastal counties.


FIGURE 8. Coastal and noncoastal medianhousehold income (county average) by region in 2000

Med

ian H

ouse

hol

d In

com

e (C

ounty

Ave

rage

)(D

olla

rs)

Coastal Counties Noncoastal Counties

Income is a demographic attribute that can be veryillustrative in the study of the geographic patterns ofpopulation. The geographic breakdown of income incoastal counties and between coastal and noncoastalcounties can be an important determinant of why certaingeographic areas are chosen over others and whatattributes are important to residency patterns. Figure 9shows the median household income of coastal counties.

Counties that fall within the highestcategory (median householdincome greater than $58,000)appear to surround, are adjacentto, or are within commutingdistance of large cities such as NewYork, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago,Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Counties exhibiting thelowest median household income category (less than$34,000) tend to be found in more rural areas,particularly in the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico regions.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Northeast Southeast Gulf ofMexico

Pacific GreatLakes

On average, coastal counties have a higher medianhousehold income than noncoastal counties, differing byalmost 17%. However, this difference decreases whencoastal counties are compared to noncoastal countieswithin coastal states. The difference in average medianhousehold income is reduced to 14%.

Median household income within coastal and noncoastalcounties also differs within regions (Figure 8) as thelocation of large cities and the cost of living may vary. For

instance, in the Northeast region, theaverage median household income incoastal counties is almost $13,000greater than noncoastal counties.The Pacific region shows a similarpattern with a difference of $8,600.In the Gulf of Mexico region, there isless than one percent difference

between coastal and noncoastal counties. The Southeastregion is the only region where the average of medianhousehold income of noncoastal counties exceeds coastalcounties.

Income

712

National Overview

Median household incomefor coastal counties is

approximately 17% higherthan noncoastal counties.

Baltimore and Montgomery Counties, MD; M. Crossett


FIGURE 9. Median household income in 2000

Leading States in Median Household Income in 2000 (Dollars)

ConnecticutNew Jersey

55,50055,200

MarylandMassachusetts

51,30048,900

CaliforniaNew Hampshire

48,70048,700

13

National Overview

New York, NY; Corbis

Air Quality

Percentof

Tota

lC

oast

alPo

pulat

ion in 2003

c

The Northeast region is the most populated coastalregion in the United States. In 2003, 52.6 million people,or 34 percent of the nation’s total coastal population,resided there. The Northeast region extends fromnorthern Maine south to the tidewaters of Virginia,encompassing the coastlines of 11 states. Ten of the 11states in the region have the majority of their populationsin coastal counties. The 180 coastal counties found in thisregion (including the District of Columbia) constitute 40percent of the region’s total land area and contain 77percent of the region’s population. Of the nation’s 10largest metropolitan areas, four are located along thecoast of this region: New York, WashingtonDC/Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Boston.

In contrast to population change, percent populationchange from 2003 to 2008 reveals a different pattern.The greatest percent coastal population change isexpected to occur in the two southernmost states of theregion, Maryland and Virginia (Figure 11). Of the 10leading coastal counties in percent population change,eight are located in Virginia and two are located inMaryland, all averaging a 13 percent to 23 percentincrease in growth. Additionally, many of these countiesare located further from major metropolitan centers thanthose leading in absolute growth.

Ground-level ozone, created primarily from motorvehicles, industrial emissions, and chemical solvents,has the potential to cause respiratory health problems

From 2003 to 2008, the Northeast coastal population isexpected to increase by approximately 1.7 millionpeople. This change will occur most heavily in countiesthat fall within, are adjacent to, or are one county beyondmajor metropolitan centers. Six of the counties expectinglarge population increases will be found in and aroundNew York City and four outside of Washington, DC (Figure10). For instance, Fairfax, VA, located adjacent toWashington, DC, is expected to show the greatestincrease, growing by over 100,000 people in this five-year period. Queens County, Kings County, and SuffolkCounty, NY, are all expected to increase between 54,000and 86,000 people.

In 2003, the population density of the combinedcoastal counties in this region was 641 persons persquare mile, up from 543 in 1980, and is expected toclimb to 661 in 2008. This is over 11 times the nation’snoncoastal population density (not including Alaska).Of the 25 most densely populated coastal counties inthe United States, 21 are found in the Northeastregion.

Northeast34%

Pacific

Gulf ofMexico

South-east

26%

13%

9%

GreatLakes18%

and is particularlydangerous tochildren withasthma. Of the474 countiesnationwide that donot meet the 8-hour ozonestandard (or thatcause a countydownwind to fail),231 are coastal(USEPA 2004).The majority (197)of these coastalcounties are foundin the Northeastand Great Lakesregions (USEPA2004).

Regional Trends

Population Density

Hot Spots of Growth

Northeast Region

714

FIGURE 10. Projected population change in the Northeast Region:2003-2008


FIGURE 11. Projected percent population change in the NortheastRegion: 2003-2008


7

15

Regional Trends

Miami-Dade County, Florida; SFWMD

Land Conversion

The Southeast region is the least populated coastalregion of the United States. In 2003, 14 million people,or 9 percent of the nation’s coastal county population,resided there. The Southeast region extends from thenorthern Outer Banks of North Carolina to the southerntip of Florida. Only one of the region’s states, Florida,has most of its population living in coastal counties. The103 coastal counties in this region constitute 33 percentof the region’s total land area and contain 37 percent ofthe region’s population. The region’s largestmetropolitan area found along the coast is Miami/FortLauderdale, FL (the twelfth largest in the entire UnitedStates).

In 2003, the coastal population density of the region was224 persons per square mile, up from 142 in 1980, andexpected to increase to 241 in 2008. The expectedpopulation density increase from 1980 to 2008represents the largest percent increase of any region.The most densely populated counties in the region areBroward County, FL, with 1,437 persons per square mile,and Seminole County, FL, with 1,254 persons per squaremile. By 2008, these counties are expected to increasein population density by 10 percent and 14 percent,respectively.

From 2003 to 2008, coastal population in the Southeastregion is expected to grow by 1.1 million people or 8percent. This is the largest percent increase of allregions within this period. Of the 10 leading counties inpopulation change, 8 are expected to be in Florida(Figure 12). Population growth will be most prominent inthe southernmost portion of Florida, with BrowardCounty expected to increase by 167,000 persons andPalm Beach County expected to increase by 151,000persons.

The nation’s coastal counties are losing 1,997 acres offarmland per day to urban and other land uses. This isapproximately 2 percent faster than noncoastal counties.The average size of farms in coastal counties hasdecreased by 15 percent between 1987 and 2002compared to a decrease of 7 percent in noncoastalcounties (USDA, 2004).

Coastal counties with high percent population change arefound throughout the region. Particularly, counties inFlorida and North Carolina rank highest (Figure 13). Forexample, Brunswick, NC, is expected to show thegreatest percent increase, 17 percent, followed byNassau, FL, with 16 percent. The fastest-growingcounties in South Carolina and Georgia are expected toaverage 10 to 12 percent growth.Northeast

34%

Pacific

Gulf ofMexico

South-east

26%

13%

9%

GreatLakes18%

Percentof

Tota

lCoas

tal P

opul

ation

in 2003

Population Density

Hot Spots of Growth

Southeast Region

16

Regional Trends

FIGURE 12. Projected population change in the Southeast Region:2003-2008Source: U.S. Census Bureau and W&PE, Inc.

FIGURE 13. Projected percent population change in theSoutheast Region: 2003-2008Source: U.S. Census Bureau and W&PE, Inc.

7

17

Regional Trends

2

Tampa, FL; K. Arnold

Waterborne Commerce

The Gulf of Mexico region is the fourth most populatedcoastal region in the United States. In 2003, the region’scoastal population was just over 19.1 million, 13 percentof the nation’s coastal population. The Gulf of Mexicoregion extends from the Florida Keys westward to thesouthern tip of Texas, following the coastline of sixstates. Only two of the region’s states, Louisiana andFlorida, have the majority of their populations in coastalcounties. The 144 coastal counties found in this regionconstitute 23 percent of the region’s total land area andcontain 32 percent of the region’s population. Of thenation’s 10 largest metropolitan areas, one is locatedalong the coast in this region: Houston-Galveston-Brazoria.

In 2003, the population density of coastal counties in thisregion was 164 persons per square mile, up from 113 in1980, and expected to increase to 175 in 2008. This isthe least densely populated of all the regions (whenAlaska is not included in the population densitycalculation for the Pacific region). Two of the three mostdensely populated coastal counties in the region arePinellas, FL, found within the large metropolitan area ofTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, with 3,308 personsper square mile, and Harris, TX, found within Houston-Galveston-Brazoria with 2,080 persons per square mile.By 2008, these counties are expected to increase inpopulation density by 4 percent and 5 percent,respectively.

Gulf Coast (Figure 14). Harris, TX, located northwest ofGalveston Bay and containing the city of Houston, isexpected to increase by 168,750 persons. This is morethan double that of any other county in this region.

In terms of percentages, coastal population growth isexpected to occur heavily in the Florida panhandle, inAlabama, and in southern Texas (Figure 15), where theincrease is expected to reach over 18 percent in somecounties.

From 2003 to 2008, the Gulf of Mexico’s coastalpopulation is expected to grow by just over 1.2 millionpeople or 7 percent. This is the second-highest rate ofgrowth during this period, just behind the Southeastregion. The leading coastal counties in populationchange are found in Texas and along Florida’s central

Nationwide, waterborne tonnage coming through theprincipal U.S. ports has increased by 14.5 million in thepast five years. Of the 10 leaders in waterborne tonnage,seven are found in the Gulf of Mexico. The Port of SouthLouisiana alone accounts for approximately 9% of all thewaterborne tonnage through principal U.S. ports (U.S.Army Corps of Engineers, 1998; 2000).

Northeast34%

Pacific

Gulf ofMexico

South-east

26%

13%

9%

GreatLakes18%

Percent

ofTo

talC

oast

alPo

pulat

ion in 2003

Population Density

Hot Spots of Growth

Gulf of Mexico Region

18

Regional Trends

7

19

Regional Trends

FIGURE 14. Projected population change in the Gulf of Mexico Region: 2003-2008

FIGURE 15. Projected percent population change in the Gulf of Mexico Region:2003-2008Source: U.S. Census Bureau and W&PE, Inc.


3

California Aqueduct, CA; Joseph Sohm, Corbis

Water Consumption

c

The Pacific region is the second most populated coastalregion in the United States. In 2003, the populationreached 39.4 million people, or 26 percent of the nation’stotal coastal population. The Pacific region includes thecoastlines of California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, andthe entire state of Hawaii. All five states in the Pacificregion have the majority of their populations in coastalcounties. The 88 coastal counties constitute 57 percentof the region’s total land area and contain 84 percent ofthe region’s population. Of the nation’s 10 largestmetropolitan areas, two are found along the coast in thisregion: Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA, andSan Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA. Othermetropolitan areas include Honolulu, HI, Portland, OR,and Anchorage, AK.

In 2003, the coastal population density (not includingAlaska) of the Pacific Region was 303 persons per squaremile, up from 207 in 1980, and expected to increase to320 in 2008. Of the 25 most densely populated coastalcounties in the United States, two are found in the Pacificregion: Orange County, CA, and San Francisco County,CA. The state of Alaska has the smallest coastalpopulation density with an average of 1.4 persons persquare mile.

San Bernardino County, CA, also are expected to beleaders of population growth for the entire nation.

In terms of percentages, coastal population growthpresents a much different pattern, where counties inCalifornia represent only half of the 10 leading countiesin expected percent increase (Figure 17). San Benito,CA, shows the highest expected increase with 19 percent,followed by Jefferson County, WA, with 16 percent.

Population projection data provided by Woods and PooleEconomics, Inc., for individual counties in Alaska areinsufficient and therefore not presented graphically.

The Pacific region consumes 9.6 billion gallons of waterper day. This is more than double that of any otherregion with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico region (6billion gallons per day). In total, the nation’s coastalcounties consume 20 billion gallons of water per day(however, this is four times less than the total waterconsumption in noncoastal counties) (U.S. CensusBureau, 2001c).

From 2003 to 2008, the Pacific region is expected toincrease by 2.2 million people or 6 percent in coastalpopulation. A large portion of this growth is expected tooccur in Southern California, where four counties makeup 37 percent of this projected growth (Figure 16). The10 leading coastal counties in expected populationincrease contain, fall within, or are adjacent to the largemetropolitan areas of San Diego, CA, Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA, Sacramento-Yolo, CA, and Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton, WA. San Diego County, Orange County, and

Northeast34%

Pacific

Gulf ofMexico

South-east

26%

13%

9%

GreatLakes18%

Percentof

Tota

lC

oas

tal P

opul

ation in 2003

Population Density

Hot Spots of Growth

Pacific Region

20

Regional Trends

FIGURE 16. Projected population change in the Pacific Region:2003-2008


FIGURE 17. Projected percent population change in the PacificRegion: 2003-2008


7

21

Regional Trends

4

Chicago, IL; Corbis

Transportation

c

The Great Lakes region is the third most populatedcoastal region in the United States. In 2003, 27.5 millionpeople, or 18 percent of the nation’s total coastalpopulation, resided there. The Great Lakes regionextends from the northeasternmost counties in New Yorkwestward toward Minnesota, encompassing thecoastlines of eight states along Lake Ontario, Lake Huron,Lake Erie, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior. Only twostates within this region, New York and Michigan, havethe majority of their populations in coastal counties. The158 coastal counties in this region constitute 28 percentof the region’s total land area and contain 33 percent ofthe region’s population. Of the nation’s 10 largestmetropolitan areas, two are found along the coast in thisregion: Detroit and Chicago.

In 2003, the population density of the combined coastalcounties in this region was 238 persons per square mile,up from 2226 in 1980, and expected to climb to 244 in2008. This is the third-highest following the Northeastand Pacific regions. Of the 25 most densely populatedcoastal counties in the United States, one is found in theGreat Lakes region: Cook County, IL.

From 2003 to 2008, the Great Lakes coastal populationas a whole is expected to increase by approximately650,000 people. This is the smallest population increaseof all regions. As in the Northeast region, coastalpopulation increases and decreases will occur mostheavily in counties that fall within, are adjacent to, or areone county beyond major metropolitan centers (Figure18). Lake County, IL, located north of Chicago, isexpected to climb by 74,000 people, and OaklandCounty, MI, by 72,000 people, the greatest increases ofany counties in the region. Of the leading coastalcounties in population change, two show large decreasesin population.

Between the years1980 and 2000, thenumber of vehicles inthe nation’s coastalcounties haveincreased by 25.5million (or 43%). Thegreatest increase wasfound in the Northeastregion, with 8 millionadditional cars. Thegreatest percentincrease of vehicleswas found in theSoutheast region,with 74 percent, andthe smallest percentincrease was in theGreat Lakes region,with 24 percent morevehicles. Althoughthe overall number ofvehicles has increasedsince 1980, in 2000there were fewervehicles per capita(U.S. Census Bureau,1980; 2001e).

While the largest overall population increases areexpected to occur in southern Michigan, Illinois, andOhio, coastal counties showing large increases in percentpopulation are located primarily in northern Michigan(Figure 19). Benzie County, MI, is expected to increaseby 15 percent, followed by Grand Traverse, MI, and Lake,MI, each of which are expected to increase by 13 percent.

Northeast34%

Pacific

Gulf ofMexico

South-east

26%

13%

9%

GreatLakes18%

Percent

ofTo

talC

oast

alPo

pu

lation in 2003

Population Density

Hot Spots of Growth

Great Lakes Region

22

Regional Trends

7

23

Regional Trends

FIGURE 18. Projected population change in the Great Lakes Region: 2003-2008Source: U.S. Census Bureau and W&PE, Inc.

FIGURE 19. Projected percent population change in the Great Lakes Region: 2003-2008


5

500045004000350030002500200015001000500

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Popu

lation

(Mill

ions)

Persons per S

quare M

ile

Ches

apea

keBay

Huds

on R

iver

/Rar

itan

Bay

San

Fra

nci

sco

Bay

Gal

vest

onBay

San

Ped

roBay

Del

awar

e Bay

Long

Isla

nd

Sou

nd

Cap

eCan

aver

al

Puge

t Sou

nd

Total Population Population Density

Gre

at S

outh

Bay

0

Watersheds are geographic areas defined by naturalhydrology and provide a sensible foundation from whichwater and coastal resources can be managed. In anattempt to provide population information in geographicunits that are useful to coastal managers and planners,NOAA has produced population estimates for coastalwatersheds (Estuarine Drainage Areas (EDAs) andCoastal Drainage Areas (CDAs)) of the contiguous UnitedStates. Population estimates for coastal watersheds for1980 were created by determining the Census tractcentroids (and their associated population estimates)that fell within each watershed. The same method wasapplied to 1990 and 2000 population data with the use ofCensus block groups (National Ocean Service/NOAA,2000). The land area covered by coastal watersheds andtheir total population in 2000 are smaller than that ofcoastal counties by almost 145,000 square miles and 21million people (not including Alaska and Hawaii).

The total population of coastal watersheds in 2000 wasapproximately 127 million people or 45 percent of thenational population. This is a growth of 24 million peoplesince 1980. The 10 most populated coastal watershedsin 2000 along with their population densities are shownin Figure 20.

Five of the 10 most populated watersheds are locatedfrom southern Virginia to New England. The HudsonRiver/Raritan Bay and Chesapeake Bay watersheds werethe most populated overall, with over 13 million and 10million people, respectively. However, San Pedro Baywas the most densely populated coastal watershed with4,634 persons per square mile.

Population change from 1980 to 2000 was greatest in theChesapeake Bay, which grew by over two million. It wasclosely followed by San Francisco Bay, which grew by 1.8million, and San Pedro Bay, which grew by 1.7 million.Areas of the country where growth was heaviest duringthis period are shown in Figure 21. Of the 10 mostpopulated coastal watersheds, the greatest percentpopulation changes are found in the Southeast andPacific regions. The populations in St. Johns River, FL,Cape Canaveral, FL, and Santa Ana, CA, all grew by over70 percent.


FIGURE 20. Ten most populated coastal watersheds with theirassociated population density for 2000.

Source: National Ocean Service/NOAA, and U.S. Census Bureau

Ventura County, CA; Rich Reid / Colors of Nature.com

724

C

FIGURE 21. Population change in the coastal watersheds: 1980-2000

Source: National Ocean Service/NOAA, and U.S. Census Bureau

25


Although population increase and coastal developmentgive rise to numerous economic benefits, they also mayresult in the loss of critical habitat, green space, andbiodiversity. Public policymakers and coastal managersare confronted with the daily task of finding a balancebetween benefiting from economic growth whilemitigating the effects of this growth on coastalenvironments. This task is becoming ever morechallenging as the coastal population continues to growin a limited space.

Population estimates and projections should be usedcautiously as uncertainty and limitations are inherent tothe data. However, these data provide criticalinformation for coastal decision makers about recent andprojected demographic trends along the coast.Characteristics such as age and income data provideinformation about who is living on the coast and why.Planning for and managing increased demands oninfrastructure and resources are becoming increasinglycomplex and require analyses of demographic data.

As the coastal population continues to grow (at the samerate as the rest of the nation), attention is brought to themethods by which the coastal environment is managedand studied. A change in paradigm is taking place,moving away from management based on politicalboundaries and toward an ecosystem-basedmanagement approach to population growth, urbansprawl, and their interactions with the sensitive coastalenvironment. Recently, the U.S. Commission on OceanPolicy (2004) highlighted the need to manage coastalresources in the framework of the watersheds that affectthem, ultimately recognizing the crucial connectionbetween coastal and upland areas and the effects of agrowing population.

The authors thank the following individuals for theirassistance. John Hayes compiled Census data andprovided an editorial review. Percy Pacheco compiledCensus data. Gini Kennedy provided advice on graphicdesign. Susan Sargent, Alison Hammer, Brent Ache, andPam Rubin provided editorial reviews. Kara Shusterassisted in compiling the appendices. Charles Bookman,James Fitzsimmons, Marc Perry, and Frank Hobbsprovided peer reviews.

Conclusion

Acknowledgments

726

Bookman, C. A., T. J. Culliton, and M. A. Warren. 1999.Trends in U.S. Coastal Regions, 1970-1998. Addendumto the Proceedings, Trends and Future Challenges forU.S. National Ocean and Coastal Policy. Silver Spring,MD: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Center for Health Communication, Harvard School ofPublic Health. 2004. Reinventing Aging: Baby Boomersand Civic Engagement. Boston, MA: Harvard School ofPublic Health. Available from:<http://research.aarp.org/general/boomers_engagement.html> (accessed July 28, 2004).

Colgan, C. S. 2004. The National Ocean EconomicsProject. 2004. The Changing Ocean and Coastal Economyof the United States: A Briefing Paper for Governors.Prepared for National Governors Association.

Culliton, T. J. 1998. Population: Distribution, Density andGrowth. Silver Spring, MD: DOC, NOAA. Available from:<http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/websites/retiredsites/supp_sotc_retired.html> (accessed October 15, 2003).

Culliton, T. J., M. A. Warren, T. R. Goodspeed, D. G.Remer, C. M. Blackwell, and J. J. McDonough. 1990. 50Years of Population Change Along the Nation’s Coasts:1960-2010, A Special Earth Week Report. Rockville, MD:DOC, NOAA. (Coastal Trends Series No. 2).

Franklin, R. S., U.S. Census Bureau. 2003. DomesticMigration Across Regions, Divisions, and States: 1995-2000. Washington, DC: DOC, U.S. Census Bureau.Available from:<http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-7.pdf>(accessed December 12, 2003).

Frey, W. H. 2003. Boomers and Seniors in the Suburbs:Aging Patterns in Census 2000. Washington, DC: TheBrookings Institution, Center on Urban and MetropolitanPolicy. (Living Cities Census Series). Available from:<http://www.brookings.edu/dybdocroot/es/urban/publications/freyboomers.pdf> (accessed January, 21, 2004).

Geolytics, Inc. 2003. CensusCD Estimates, Projections,Consumer Expenditures and Profiles 2003/2008. EastBrunswick, NJ.

H. John Heinz Center for Science, Economics and theEnvironment. 2000. Evaluation of Erosion Hazards.Washington, DC: The Heinz Center.

Hinrichsen, Don. 1998. Coastal Waters of the World: Trends,Threats, and Strategies. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Johnson, K. P., Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 1995. Redefinition of BEA Economic Areas. Available from:<http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/regional/articles/0295rea>(accessed May 15, 2004).

National Ocean Service, NOAA. 2000. Spatial patterns ofsocioeconomic data from 1970 to 2000: a national researchdataset aggregated by watershed and political boundaries[electronic resource]. Available from:<http://cads.nos.noaa.gov/> (accessed October 20, 2003).

National Safety Council. 1998. Coastal Challenges: A Guideto Coastal and Marine Issues. Environmental Health Center.Washington, DC: National Safety Council.

NPA Data Services, Inc. 2003. Key Indicators of CountyGrowth 1970 – 2025, Extended to 2030 (2003 Edition).Arlington, VA.

Ocean City Public Relations Office. 2004. Number of Visitorsto Ocean City, MD by Year & Summer. Ocean City, MD.

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References

27

Perry, M. J., U.S. Census Bureau. 2003. State-to-StateMigration Flows:1995 to 2000. Washington, DC: DOC, U.S.Census Bureau. Available from:<http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-8.pdf>(accessed December 12, 2003).

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1998; 2000; 2002.Waterborne Tonnage for Principal U.S. Ports and all 50States and U.S. Territories. Waterborne Tonnages forDomestic, Foreign, Imports, Exports and Intra-StateWaterborne Traffic. Navigation Data Center, WaterborneCommerce Statistics Center. Available from:<http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/ndc/wcsc/wcsc.htm>(accessed April 13, 2004).

U.S. Census Bureau. 1980. 1980 Census of Population andHousing. Washington, DC. Obtained via Geolytics, Inc., EastBrunswick, NJ.

___. 1991. 1990 Census of Population and Housing.Washington, DC, 1990. Obtained via Geolytics, Inc., EastBrunswick, NJ.

___. 2000. 1999 Residential Construction Data Files.Manufacturing and Construction Division. ResidentialConstruction Branch. Washington, DC: DOC, U.S. CensusBureau.

___. 2001a. 2000 Residential Construction Data Files.Manufacturing and Construction Division. ResidentialConstruction Branch. Washington, DC: DOC, U.S. CensusBureau.

___. 2001b. Appendix A: Census 2000 Geographic Termsand Concepts. Available from:http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger/glossry2.pdf(accessed April 5, 2004).

___. 2001c. County and City Data Book: 2000 (13th Edition).Washington, DC: DOC, U.S. Census Bureau.

___. 2001d. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2002(122nd Edition). Washington, DC: DOC, U.S. Census Bureau.

___. 2001e. Summary File 1, 2000 Census of Populationand Housing. Washington, DC. Obtained via Geolytics,Inc., East Brunswick, NJ.


___. 2003a. 2002 Residential Construction Data Files.Manufacturing and Construction Division. ResidentialConstruction Branch. Washington, DC: DOC, U.S. CensusBureau.

___. 2003b. 2003 County Population Estimates. Availablefrom: <http://eire.census.gov/popest/estimates.php>(accessed April 12, 2004).


U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy. 2004. PreliminaryReport of the U.S. Commission on Ocean PolicyGovernors’ Draft. Washington, DC.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2004. 2002Census of Agriculture. National Agriculture StatisticsService. Available from:<http://www.nass.usda.gov/census/> (accessed July28, 2004).

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). 8-HourGround-level Ozone Designations. Available from:<http://www.epa.gov/ozonedesignations/index.htm>(accessed April 15, 2004).

728

References

1

2

3

4

5

U.S. Geologic Survey. 1987. Hydrologic Unit Maps, Whatare Hydrologic Units? Available from:<http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html> (accessed May 3,2004).

Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation.2003. Soil and Water Conservation, Hydrologic UnitHydrology. Available from:<http://www.dcr.state.va.us/sw/hu.htm> (accessed May3, 2004).

Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. (W&PE). 2003. 2003Desktop Data Files. Washington, DC: W&PE.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 2000. WorldResources: 2000-2001. Washington, DC: WRI.

7

Hydrologic units are classified at four levels: regions,sub-regions, accounting units, and cataloging units.Cataloging units are the smallest hydrologic unit in thishierarchy (U.S. Geologic Survey, 1987). There are 2,150cataloging units in the United States, with an averagecataloging unit size of 703 square miles (VirginiaDepartment of Conservation and Recreation, 2003).

Principal ports are defined by the U.S. Army Corps ofEngineers (2002). The five-year period of study was1998 to 2002.

Water consumption represents “that part of waterwithdrawn that is evaporated, transpired, incorporatedinto products or crops, consumed by humans orlivestock, or otherwise removed from the immediatewater environment” (U.S. Census Bureau, 2001).

References

Total number of vehicles for coastal counties wasquantified using the “1-car per household,” ” 2-car perhousehold,” and “3-car per household” fields in the 2000Census. Numbers of households were multiplied by thenumber of cars they contained and totaled (householdswith more than three cars were not used in thiscalculation).

A Census Tract is a statistical subdivision of a county orcounty equivalent area containing between 1,500 and8,000 persons. A Census block group is an aggregationof Census blocks (the smallest Census geographic unit)containing between 600 and 3,000 persons. In thestandard hierarchy of Census geographic entities, blockgroups lie just below Census tracts (U.S. Census Bureau,2000). For further information on Census geographies,visit http://www.census.gov/geo/www/reference.html.

Endnotes

29


Appendix A: Population Change

730


Appendix B: Total Housing Units

731

Appendix C: Northeast

732


733


123456789

1011121314

151617181920

212223242526272829303132

MaineAndroscogginCumberlandFranklinHancockKennebecKnoxLincolnOxfordPenobscotSagadahocSomersetWaldoWashingtonYork

New HampshireBelknapCarrollHillsboroughMerrimackRockinghamStrafford

MassachusettsBarnstableBerkshireBristolDukesEssexHampdenMiddlesexNantucketNorfolkPlymouthSuffolkWorcester

3334353637

3839404142434445

464748495051525354555657585960616263

Rhode IslandBristolKentNewportProvidenceWashington

ConnecticutFairfieldHartfordLitchfieldMiddlesexNew HavenNew LondonTollandWindham

New YorkAlbanyBronxColumbiaDutchessGreeneKingsNassauNew YorkOrangePutnamQueensRensselaerRichmondRocklandSchenectadySuffolkUlsterWestchester

6465666768697071727374757677787980818283

848586878889909192939495

New JerseyAtlanticBergenBurlingtonCamdenCape MayCumberlandEssexGloucesterHudsonHunterdonMercerMiddlesexMonmouthMorrisOceanPassaicSalemSomersetSussexUnion

PennsylvaniaAdamsBerksBucksChesterDelawareLancasterLebanonLehighMontgomeryPhiladelphiaSchuylkillYork

969798

99100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

119

120121122123124125126

DelawareKentNew CastleSussex

MarylandAnne ArundelBaltimoreCalvertCarolineCarrollCecilCharlesDorchesterHarfordHowardKentMontgomeryPrince George'sQueen Anne'sSt. Mary'sSomersetTalbotWicomicoWorcesterBaltimore

District ofColumbia

VirginiaAccomackAmeliaAppomattoxArlingtonBuckinghamCarolineCharles City

127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163

ChesterfieldCumberlandDinwiddieEssexFairfaxFauquierFluvannaGloucesterGoochlandHanoverHenricoIsle of WightJames CityKing and QueenKing GeorgeKing WilliamLancasterLouisaMathewsMiddlesexNew KentNorthamptonNorthumberlandNottowayOrangePowhatanPrince EdwardPrince GeorgePrince WilliamRichmondSpotsylvaniaStaffordSurryWestmorelandYorkAlexandriaChesapeake

164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180

Colonial HeightsFairfaxFalls ChurchFredericksburgHamptonHopewellManassasManassas ParkNewport NewsNorfolkPetersburgPoquosonPortsmouthRichmondSuffolkVirginia BeachWilliamsburg

Coastal Counties

734



30,86220,226

668,9684,209

477,8406,610

841,0451,045

1004,8454,845

10047,2147,751

167,4177,059

9544,8176,884

151,9541,954

1009,7747,578

786161

10039,59413,902

35204,39182,124

40

1,1251,016

9092172178

5,7375,534

96947947100

3,1083,108

10017,55812,232

707,3657,280

9911,8645,280

45594594100

4,2173,882

92638638100

5,3473,396

6459,42044,629

75

3650

103171

732837

906906

641641

3721,578

9931,031

265767

304304

431512

10,46410,464

135244

291543

1,2281,122

911,109

89180

6,0165,800

961,0031,003

1003,2873,287

10017,99012,593

707,7307,639

9911,8825,464

46666666100

4,7814,407

92607607100

6,1874,152

6762,48847,630

76

4055

124212

767877

960960

678678

3811,625

1,0421,082

265794

341341

489582

9,9499,949

156299

306580

1,2751,184

931,2361,007

816,3496,125

961,0481,048

1003,4063,406

10018,97613,572

728,4148,312

9912,2815,750

47784784100

5,2964,865

92572572100

7,0794,794

6866,71651,417

77

4159

138239

810927

1,0031,003

703703

4021,751

1,1341,177

274835

401401

542642

9,3789,378

179345

326626

1,3061,215

931,2881,053

826,4336,206

961,0761,076

1003,4833,483

10019,19013,773

728,6388,529

9912,3655,826

47817817100

5,5095,055

92563563100

7,3865,024

6868,05652,620

77

4260

144250

821939

1,0301,030

719719

4061,777

1,1651,208

276846

418418

564667

9,2369,236

187361

333641

1,3321,244

931,3561,114

826,5986,364

961,0941,094

1003,5203,520

10019,59014,136

728,9168,802

9912,5725,941

47857857100

5,7865,301

92560560100

7,8095,362

6969,99154,295

78

4362

151265

842963

1,0471,047

727727

4151,824

1,2021,247

281863

439439

592700

9,1879,187

197385

342661

STATELand Area(Sq. Mi.) Absolute* Density** Absolute Density Absolute Density Absolute Density Absolute Density

MAINECoastalCoastal PercentNEW HAMPSHIRECoastalCoastal PercentMASSACHUSETTSCoastalCoastal PercentRHODE ISLANDCoastalCoastal PercentCONNECTICUTCoastalCoastal PercentNEW YORKCoastalCoastal PercentNEW JERSEYCoastalCoastal PercentPENNSYLVANIACoastalCoastal PercentDELAWARECoastalCoastal PercentMARYLANDCoastalCoastal PercentDCCoastalCoastal PercentVIRGINIACoastalCoastal PercentTOTALCoastalCoastal Percent

1980 1990 2000 2003 2008

*Thousand Persons **Persons per square mile

7

Northeast Population, 1980-2008

35

Appendix D: Southeast

736


123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627

North CarolinaAnsonBeaufortBertieBladenBrunswickCamdenCarteretChowanColumbusCravenCumberlandCurrituckDareDuplinEdgecombeGatesHalifaxHertfordHydeJonesLenoirMartinNew HanoverNorthamptonOnslowPamlicoPasquotank

28293031323334353637

38394041424344454647484950515253

PenderPerquimansPittRichmondSampsonScotlandTyrrellWashingtonWayneWilson

South CarolinaAllendaleBeaufortBerkeleyCharlestonChesterfieldClarendonColletonDarlingtonDillonDorchesterFlorenceGeorgetownHamptonHorryJasperKershaw

545556575859

6061626364656667686970717273747576777879

LancasterLeeMarionMarlboroSumterWilliamsburg

GeorgiaApplingAtkinsonBaconBrantleyBryanBullochCamdenCharltonChathamCoffeeEffinghamGlynnIrwinJeff DavisJenkinsLibertyLongMcIntoshMontgomeryPierce

8081828384

858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103

ScrevenTattnallToombsWareWayne

FloridaBakerBrevardBrowardClayDuvalFlaglerIndian RiverMartinMiami-DadeNassauOkeechobeeOrangeOsceolaPalm BeachPutnamSt. JohnsSt. LucieSeminoleVolusia

7

Coastal Counties

37




1980 1990 2000 2003 2008

NORTH CAROLINACoastalCoastal PercentSOUTH CAROLINACoastalCoastal PercentGEORGIACoastalCoastal PercentFLORIDACoastalCoastal PercentTOTALCoastalCoastal Percent

48,71119,591

4030,11015,233

5157,90612,076

2153,92716,616

31190,65463,516

33

5,8821,598

273,1221,288

415,463

62011

9,7465,483

5624,2138,989

37

12182

10485

9451

181330

127142

6,6291,756

263,4871,455

426,478

70511

12,9387,288

5629,53111,205

38

13690

11696

11258

240439

155176

8,0491,985

254,0121,653

418,186

82110

15,9829,072

5736,23013,532

37

165101

133109

14168

296546

190213

8,4072,017

244,1471,713

418,685

84410

17,0199,664

5738,25814,238

37

173103

138112

15070

316582

201224

9,0032,138

244,4161,820

419,202

88910

18,39710,468

5741,01915,315

37

185109

147120

15974

341630

215241


Southeast Population, 1980-2008

738

7

Appendix E: Gulf of Mexico

39

123456789

1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435

FloridaBayCalhounCharlotteCitrusCollierDeSotoDixieEscambiaFranklinGadsdenGilchristGladesGulfHardeeHendryHernandoHillsboroughHolmesJacksonJeffersonLafayetteLakeLeeLeonLevyLibertyMadisonManateeMarionMonroeOkaloosaPascoPinellasPolkSanta Rosa

36373839404142

434445

4647484950515253

545556575859606162636465

SarasotaSumterSuwanneeTaylorWakullaWaltonWashington

GeorgiaDecaturGradyThomas

AlabamaBaldwinClarkeCovingtonEscambiaGenevaMobileMonroeWashington

MississippiAmiteGeorgeHancockHarrisonJacksonLamarMarionPearl RiverPikeStoneWalthallWilkinson

66676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100

LouisianaAcadiaAscensionAssumptionAvoyellesBeauregardCalcasieuCameronEast Baton RougeEast FelicianaEvangelineIberiaIbervilleJeffersonJefferson DavisLafayetteLafourcheLivingstonOrleansPlaqueminesPointe CoupeeRapidesSabineSt. BernardSt. CharlesSt. HelenaSt. JamesSt. John the BaptistSt. LandrySt. MartinSt. MarySt. TammanyTangipahoaTerrebonneVermilionVernon

101102103

104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134

WashingtonWest Baton RougeWest Feliciana

TexasAransasAustinBeeBrazoriaBrooksCalhounCameronChambersColoradoDeWittDuvalFayetteFort BendGalvestonGoliadHarrisHidalgoJacksonJasperJeffersonJim HoggJim WellsKenedyKlebergLavacaLibertyLive OakMatagordaNewtonNuecesOrange

135136137138139140141142143144

RefugioSan PatricioStarrTylerVictoriaWallerWashingtonWebbWhartonWillacy

Coastal Counties


740



1980 1990 2000 2003 2008

FLORIDACoastalCoastal PercentGEORGIACoastalCoastal PercentALABAMACoastalCoastal PercentMISSISSIPPICoastalCoastal PercentLOUISIANACoastalCoastal PercentTEXASCoastalCoastal PercentTOTALCoastalCoastal Percent

53,92733,565

6257,9061,603

350,7448,731

1746,9076,778

1443,56225,733

59261,79740,234

15514,843116,644

23

9,7463,990

415,463

832

3,89461016

2,52148219

4,2063,253

7714,2294,806

3440,05913,225

33

181119

9452

7770

5471

97126

54119

78113

12,9385,313

416,478

851

4,04164016

2,57350920

4,2203,292

7816,9875,582

3347,23615,421

33

240158

11253

8073

5575

97128

65139

92132

15,9826,495

418,186

951

4,44771216

2,84558821

4,4693,510

7920,8526,850

3356,78118,250

32

296194

14159

8882

6187

103136

80170

110156

17,0196,926

418,685

961

4,50172116

2,88159921

4,4963,539

7922,1197,277

3359,70119,159

32

316206

15060

8983

6188

103138

84181

116164

18,3977,474

419,202

1001

4,73076816

3,02263821

4,6623,683

7923,7667,743

3263,77820,406

32

341223

15962

9388

6494

107143

91192

124175


7

Gulf of Mexico Population, 1980-2008


41

Appendix F: Pacific

742

123456789

101112131415161718192021222324

CaliforniaAlamedaContra CostaDel NorteHumboldtLos AngelesMarinMendocinoMontereyNapaOrangeRiversideSacramentoSan BenitoSan BernardinoSan DiegoSan FranciscoSan JoaquinSan Luis ObispoSan MateoSanta BarbaraSanta ClaraSanta CruzSiskiyouSolano

2526272829

303132333435363738394041

42434445

SonomaSutterTrinityVenturaYolo

OregonBentonClackamasClatsopColumbiaCoosCurryDouglasJosephineLaneLincolnMultnomahTillamook

WashingtonClallamClarkCowlitzGrays Harbor

464748495051525354555657585960

6162636465666768

IslandJeffersonKingKitsapLewisMasonPacificPierceSan JuanSkagitSkamaniaSnohomishThurstonWahkiakumWhatcom

AlaskaAleutians EastAleutians WestAnchorageBethelBristol BayDillinghamHainesJuneau

697071727374757677787980818283

8485868788

Kenai PeninsulaKetchikan GatewayKodiak IslandLake and PeninsulaMatanuska-SusitnaNomeNorth SlopeNorthwest ArcticPrince of Wales-Outer KetchikanSitkaSkagway-Hoonah-AngoonValdez-CordovaWade HamptonWrangell-PetersburgYakutat

HawaiiHawaiiHonoluluKalawaoKauaiMaui

7

Coastal Counties

Appendix F: Pacific

43



1980 1990 2000 2003 2008

CALIFORNIACoastalCoastal PercentOREGONCoastalCoastal PercentWASHINGTONCoastalCoastal PercentALASKACoastalCoastal PercentHAWAIICoastalCoastal PercentTOTALCoastalCoastal Percent

155,95977,812

5095,99721,003

2266,54424,714

37571,951381,121

676,4236,423

100896,874511,073

57

23,66821,038

892,6331,506

574,1323,109

7540633683

965965100

31,80426,954

85

152270

2772

62126

11

150150

3553

29,76026,269

882,8421,585

564,8673,777

7855245883

1,1081,108

10039,13033,197

85

191338

3075

73153

11

173173

4465

33,87229,660

883,4211,808

535,8944,587

7862752984

1,2121,212

10045,02637,796

84

217381

3686

89186

11

189189

5074

35,48430,952

873,5601,863

526,1314,778

7864954985

1,2581,258

10047,08239,399

84

228398

3789

92193

11

196196

5277

37,43032,585

873,8321,972

516,5915,160

7868558285

1,2861,286

10049,82541,585

83

240419

4094

99209

12

200200

5681


Pacific Population, 1980-2008

Appendix F: Pacific

744

7

Appendix G: Great Lakes

45


123456789

101112131415161718192021

22

232425262728293031

New YorkCattaraugusCayugaChautauquaClintonErieFranklinGeneseeHamiltonHerkimerJeffersonLewisLivingstonMonroeNiagaraOnondagaOntarioOrleansOswegoSt. LawrenceWayneWyoming

PennsylvaniaErie

OhioAshlandAshtabulaCrawfordCuyahogaDefianceErieFultonGeaugaHancock

323334353637383940414243444546

47484950515253545556575859606162636465

HenryHuronLakeLorainLucasMarionMedinaOttawaPortageSanduskySenecaSummitTrumbullWoodWyandot

MichiganAlconaAlgerAlleganAlpenaAntrimArenacBaragaBarryBayBenzieBerrienBranchCalhounCassCharlevoixCheboyganChippewaClareCrawford

66676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101

DeltaDickinsonEatonEmmetGogebicGrand TraverseHillsdaleHoughtonHuronIoniaIoscoJacksonKalamazooKalkaskaKentKeweenawLakeLapeerLeelanauLenaweeLivingstonLuceMackinacMacombManisteeMarquetteMasonMecostaMenomineeMissaukeeMonroeMontcalmMontmorencyMuskegonNewaygoOakland

102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120

121122123124125126127128129

130131

OceanaOgemawOntonagonOsceolaOscodaOtsegoOttawaPresque IsleRoscommonSaginawSt. ClairSt. JosephSanilacSchoolcraftTuscolaVan BurenWashtenawWayneWexford

IndianaElkhartKosciuskoLaGrangeLakeLaPorteNoblePorterSt. JosephSteuben

IllinoisCookLake

132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154

155156157158

WisconsinAshlandBayfieldBrownCalumetDoorDouglasFlorenceFond du LacForestIronKenoshaKewauneeManitowocMarinetteMenomineeMilwaukeeOcontoOutagamieOzaukeeRacineShawanoSheboyganWashington

MinnesotaCarltonCookLakeSt. Louis

Coastal Counties

746




1980 1990 2000 2003 2008

NEW YORKCoastalCoastal PercentPENNSYLVANIACoastalCoastal PercentOHIOCoastalCoastal PercentMICHIGANCoastalCoastal PercentINDIANACoastalCoastal PercentILLINOISCoastalCoastal PercentWISCONSINCoastalCoastal PercentMINNESOTACoastalCoastal PercentTOTALCoastalCoastal Percent

47,21421,416

4544,817

8022

40,94810,550

2656,80451,155

9035,8674,072

1155,5841,394

354,31015,394

2879,61010,635

13415,154115,418

28

17,5583,629

2111,864

2802

10,7984,416

419,2628,207

895,4901,276

2311,4275,694

504,7062,268

484,076

2697

75,18026,039

35

372169

265349

264419

163160

153313

2064,085

87147

5125

181226

17,9903,647

2011,882

2762

10,8474,312

409,2958,251

895,5441,275

2311,4315,621

494,8922,322

474,375

2426

76,25625,946

34

381170

265344

265409

164161

155313

2064, 033

90151

5523

184225

18,9763,650

1912,281

2812

11,3534,418

399,9388,859

896,0801,378

2312,4196,021

485,3642,469

464,919

2485

81,33227,324

34

402170

274350

277419

175173

170338

2234,319

99160

6223

196237

19,1903,645

1912,365

2802

11,4364,416

3910,0808,984

896,1961,397

2312,6546,037

485,4722,499

465,059

2485

82,45227,506

33

406170

276349

279419

177176

173343

2284,330

101162

6423

199238

19,5903,673

1912,572

2832

11,7274,463

3810,4129,297

896,4661,455

2313,0386,168

475,7122,563

455,360

2525

84,87728,153

33

415171

281353

286423

183182

180357

2354,425

105166

6724

204244


7

Great Lakes Population, 1980-2008

47

coastal population growth

Documents

coastal states

coastal population data

coastal countiesbuilding

nations coastal areas

population changeappendix

projected percent population

projected population

ocean city