COAST Trust Equity and Justice Working Group

www.coastbd.orgwww.equitybd.org

Climate Change and Disaster

Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Areas of

Bangladesh

Coastal area covers 32% of country’s total areas

35 million people/ 28% of country’s population live in the coastal areas

20% and 40% of World’s population lives within 30 kilometers and 100 kilometers of the coast respectively

The Coast of Bangladesh

Socio-Economic Status of Coastal People

54% Families are Functionally Landless

High Annual Population Growth Rate, 1.29% in comparison to 0f national average

By 2020 Population will be increased to 45 million from 35 million

Agri-based Livelihoods

19

4131

9

30

58

112

0

20

40

60

80

Non FarmFamily

Small FarmFamily

MediumFarm

Large Farm

HH Category as per land ownership

Perc

enta

ge o

f HH

Number of medium farm households reduced to 11% in 1996 from 31 % in 1960.

Number of non-farm households increased from 19 percent in 1960 to 30 percent in 1996.

Medium farm households are

loosing cultivable land and becoming small farm and then

to non-farm households;

The number of

marginal and non farm households are

increasing

Risk in the Coastal Areas

Others7%Governance

16%

Natural Disaster

19%

Human Factor58%

Human Factor Natural Disaster Governance Others

Living standard, average life expectancy, access to

education, health and other basic services, social security etc are not at expected level in

comparison to national average.

increasing trends climate related

vulnerabilities and natural disasters

are making people’s life more

helpless.

Typical geographical settings and low elevation from the mean sea level

Risk Factors in the Coastal Areas

Influence of monsoon

Open and extended coastal belt

Strong tidal force, wind

action, dynamic process of erosion and

accretion,

Gradual sloping of the continental shelf

Disaster Risk: What’s Cause

Behind

Increasinglyemission of GHGs

Global warming & changes in climatic condition.

Emission of Major GHG Gases

280

0.8 0 0

353280

484

1.720

100

200

300

400

500

600

CO2 Methene CFC-11 CFC-12

Am

ount

, PP

M

Pre Industrial

In 1990

Over exploitation of natural resources, Urbanization, population

growth, Neo-liberal Economic Policies, Consumerism of rich

nations, Profit maximization of the MNCs

Combustion of fossil fuel annually adding 5.7

X 109 tons of carbon.

Deforestation annually adding

0.6 – 0.5 X 109 tons of Carbon

Massive utilization of natural coal in China,

annually could contribute upto 3 % of

world’s Carbon emission.

Increasing trend of cement production, 5 %

annually, adding considerable Carbon in

the atmosphere.

Disaster Risk: What’s Cause

Behind

Global Warming and Changes in Climatic Condition

Year Sea Level Rise (cm)

Temperate Rise ( oC )

% of Changes in precipitation( base 1990)

2030 30 0.7 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter

3% less in winter and 11 percent more in monsoon

2050 50 1.1 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter

37% less in winter and 28 percent more in monsoon

Global Warming and Endangered Bangladesh

Parameters Worst Scenario

2050 2100

Relative Sea Level Rise 153 cm 460 cm

Land Subsidence 140 cm 240 cm

Shore Line Erosion 1.5 Km 3 Km

Loss of Habitable Land 16 km2 34 km2

Displaced Population 13 % 40 %

Reduction of Mangrove Area 79 km2 95 km2

Global Warmingand Endangered Bangladesh

15-17% land area will be Submerged by 100 cm Rise of Sea Level

20 m. People will Become Environmental Refugee

Flooding Risks of Low Land will be Increased by 29% ,

145 km Sandy Shoreline from CXB to Bodormokam Would be Inundated

By 2030 about 58 thousand Hectare land would be Submerged

Worldwide Hydro-metrological Disaster e.g. Drought, Flood, Cyclone etc have increased than Geographical Disasters like Tsunami, Earthquake etc.

Climate change is likely to increase such disasters in Bangladesh

Bangladesh would be worst victim of incidence and intensity of Hydro-metrological Disasters

Global Warming:Endangered Bangladesh

Bangladesh is particularly prone to Hydro-metrological Disaster which has been found increasing in the recent years

In 2007 we faced prolong flooding, 13 depressions have been formed in the Bay including Cyclone SIDR that hit Bangladesh’s Coast

Other climate related disasters; heavy rainfall, flood, drought, erosion, salinity, water logging , drinking water scarcity , loss of biodiversity etc are also increasing.

Global Warming:Endangered Bangladesh

Endangered

Bangladesh Cyclone

10 % of the world’s tropical cyclone develop in the Indian Ocean but cause 85 % of the world’s cyclonic havoc

During 1980 to 2000, cyclone caused death of 2.5 m people worldwide, of which 60 percent were in Bangladesh.

Philippines is at high risk to cyclone but cyclonic death in Bangladesh is 10 times than the Philippines.

Considering Factors

Season wise Cyclone Distribution

9%

27%

64%

Pre Monsoon Post Monsoon Other Season

45 deadly cyclone

occurred during 1793-

1997, average frequency is 1

in every 4-5 years

700 cyclone occurred

during 1891-1990, of which

62 in pre-monsoon and 192 in Post-

monsoon season

Frequency & Distribution of Cyclone

11 Signals for Sea-port and 04 for River port

During 1980s No Cyclone Center Constructed by the Government

In 1991 We had 300 Cyclone Centers BUT Requirements were 5000

Special Weather Bulletin Announced in Fair Bangla Language---is difficult to follow by the local people

Warning System & Disaster

Preparedness

Coastal Erosion

YEAR Financial Loss (Million

Taka)

Affected Area (Acre)

Affected People

1996 5809 71680.4 10103635

1997 33012 7756 173090

1998 2201 41519 321000

1999 10535 227755 899275

2000 3286 219310 415870

During 1996-2000; financial loss was Tk. 54843 m, affected area 567900 acre and affected

people were 12 m

30868 m3 tidal water flows upward through the channels

These channels carry down upstream fresh waters from 38,896 m2 coastal and midland areas of Bangladesh.

Annually 6 m. cusecs water along with 2179 m. MT sediments flows downward through the estuaries

The pressure of the downwards flows, strong tidal circulation results unprecedented erosion

Coastal Erosion

ErosionProtection:

Few Observations

Embankments designed to dissipate the energy of

waves……

IT only can give residents a false sense of security

Construction During Erosion

Use of Inadequate Number and Size of Boulders and Sand Bags

Lack of Monitoring and regular maintenance

Salinity Intrusion

Sea level rise will cause salinity intrusion through rivers and estuaries

In the rainy season saline water ingress to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry season it reaches to 40 %area even

Figure shows that 0.5 meter sea level rise will

cause saline water intrusion in many fresh

water areas

Salinity Intrusion

IMAPCT

10% more land (relative to 1990) will be saline-affected and will rise 10% annually

Decreases availability/productivity of

agricultural land

Increased food insecurity Loss of biodiversity, e.g. decrease in tree species

and freshwater fish;

Serious scarcity of safe drinking water;

CAUSES

Global warming and expansion/ rising of SL

Withdrawal of fresh water flows at Farakka barrage.

Expansion of Shrimp Farm

Frequency and intensity of tidal surges

Low relative elevation from the mean sea level.

Salinity Intrusion

Endangered Economy

1970 cyclone caused death of 1.2 m people and USD 86.4 m. financial loss

1991 Cyclone caused death of 138, 000 people and USD 1780 m financial loss

Cyclone SIDR in 2007 caused death of 3199 (?) Affected families 6.8 m, Financial Loss estimated USD 3 billion

Bangladesh will require USD 1 billion to face the impact of sea level rise,

USD 13 billion to rehabilitate 13 million ousted coastal population, and USD 12 million to safeguard coast.

BUT the cost of production loss, 28 to 57 percent, from the present level by 1 meter sea level rise would never be repairable.

DisasterGlobal Scenario

The last decade could be identified as disaster decade.

In 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami caused death of 280,000 people

Devastating floods/ cyclones in China, India, USA & Europe caused huge loss of life and properties

240,000 people in Nizare affected with famine and people in Malawi facing drought and famine

The devastating affect of Hurricane, Katrina and Rita etc. in the USA

DisasterGlobal Scenario

In 2004 worldwide disaster caused economic loss of $ 123 billion most of which were in the poor countries

World Bank report says, $ 7.5 billion will be needed to overcome Indian Ocean Tsunami loss

$ 5 billion will be needed to recover the earthquake loss in Kashmir, Pakistan.

EC-HAD reported that the poor countries are facing at least 3% expected GDP loss annually.

What’s needed !Land Reclamation

Sea level (0m)

10m

>20m

Mangrove can reduce strength of Typhoon and Tsunami by 30-40 percent

What’s needed !Mangrove Forestation

Local Level……

Training, Skill Development through local government.

Special whether bulletin in local and easy language

Maintenance to cyclone center and coastal embankment

More discussion, consultation on Climate Change

Launching community radio

Emergency fund at the local government especially for pre-disaster preparedness

Measures Needs to Take

Rural Centric Development

More budget allocation for capacity building, disaster preparedness and rehabilitation

Saving mangrove forest

Salinity tolerant rice/ crop seed development

Reducing population growth

Defend rights of ethnic, and marginalized Professional group like coastal fishers

Resist GMO hybrid and more Input based cropping practices

Measures Needs to Take

Measures Needs to Take

Stop corporatization in agriculture and develop community based seed preservation practices to support post disaster agriculture

Develop alternative livelihoods options, develop appropriate adaptive technology but not undermining ITK

Besides PRS, long term development/financial planning for Sustainable DRR

Besides, cyclone shelter construction support coastal people to build strong houses those could even be served as shelter

Measures Needs to Take

Alliance formation of the countries that are at risk of global warming and associated disasters and make pressure and lobby with the developed counties for loss compensation

Partnership with the developed counties for appropriate adaptive technology innovation and transfer the poor countries

Effective Participation in World Carbon Trading

UN-COP 13OUR POSITION

Industrialized countries should act urgently to mitigate GHG emission; halving of global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 level.

We discourage carbon trading; we demand mitigation

The temperature rise would continue to next 50 years even at present level of Carbon concentration. So countries at climate risk should be supported with appropriate adaptive technologies.

Sea level rise will cause huge environmental refugee who should have right of migration to other countries.

UN-COP 13OUR POSITION

Developing countries should be supported with massive new CDM technology

Growing industrialized countries should join Kyoto system and adopt binding emission limitation targets from the next phase (post Kyoto commitment)

Poor countries should be supported with reliable financing mechanism to implement NAPA ( National Adaptation Programme of Action)

Thank You All

www.equitybd.org

CARE CLIMATE

CANCEL DEBT of THE LDCs