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COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI SPECIAL COALTRANS ASIA PDF REPORT MAY-JUNE 2011 India's need for coal imports could jump nearly 70 percent in next fiscal year to 142 million tonnes from 2010/11 forecast purchases, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said in a speech, as domestic output growth faces regulatory hurdles. REUTERS/Mukesh Gupta

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Page 1: COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI€¦ · Coal industry looks past Japan dip as Asia demand booms By Rebekah Kebede and Michael Taylor NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31

COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI

SPECIAL COALTRANS ASIA PDF REPORT MAY-JUNE 2011

India's need for coal imports could jump nearly 70 percent in next fiscal year to 142 million tonnes from 2010/11 forecast purchases, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said in a speech, as domestic output growth faces regulatory hurdles. REUTERS/Mukesh Gupta

Page 2: COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI€¦ · Coal industry looks past Japan dip as Asia demand booms By Rebekah Kebede and Michael Taylor NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31

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Coal industry looks past Japan dip as Asia demand booms By Rebekah Kebede and Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

C oal producers in Indonesia and Australia are racing to ramp up output to capture Asia's booming demand for power that has quickly filled the gap left by a drop in

demand from quake-hit Japan, executives at a conference said on Tuesday.

Exports of coal from Indonesia, the world's top exporter of thermal coal used to fuel power stations, were diverted to China in the wake of Japan's devastating earthquake and tsu-nami in March, showing the hunger of the rest of Asia to soak up available spot cargoes.

With Japan's economy showing more signs of recovery on Tuesday, coal industry players at the Coaltrans Asia confer-ence in Bali, said prices could pick up in the second half of the year and producers were competing to be ready for rising demand.

"If there are constraints like the rains last year, if that happens next year, the supply-demand balance will be destroyed. But if the production side is okay next year, then the market will be balanced," said Masato Uchiyama, director of energy business at J-Power , operator of several large coal-fired and hydro-power stations across Japan.

Australia suffered serious floods and Indonesia had heavy rains through the year, which crimped coal production.

Uchiyama told Reuters that there may be some bottlenecks to the supply side due to disruptions to ports and new coal mines starting operations.

"But the demand side is very steady. For example, in India, there are many power plants coming online, demand is in-creasing very steadily -- it's very sure. China is a little bit tweaky, but basically coal demand is to the upside," Uchi-yama said.

Japan's industrial output rose 1 percent last month, after a record plunge following the quake and tsunami, and com-panies said they planned to further crank up output in May-June.

"Next year, definitely Japan must come back... As a coal pro-ducer, I'm expecting a deficit," said Eko BF Natalina, sales general manager at Indonesia's Berau Coal , which aims to boost output by half by 2014.

For now, Uchiyama told the conference the firm has cut its estimate for thermal coal demand from Japan this year by only 10 million tonnes to 110 million, taking into account a recovery of demand by power plants that were not dam-aged.

Australia's thermal coal prices have fluctuated since the earthquake as demand from Japan, Australia's largest ther-mal coal customer, has eased.

Thermal coal on the globalCOAL Newcastle index for the week to date was $117.50 per tonne on Monday, down from $120.69 a week earlier, and much lower than the $140 a tonne seen in January when prices were pushed up by flood-ing in Australia's eastern Queensland state.

India's growing coal imports:

( http://link.reuters.com/sej97p )

(Continued on page 3)

—————————- MAY 2011

A barge, transporting coal from Berau Coal, sails during an open-sea transhipment in Berau district in Indonesia's East Kalimantan province August 17, 2010. REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad

COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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PRODUCTION, DEMAND INCREASE

The high prices and bullish demand projections from Asian countries that are overhauling their power supply are leading Indonesian producers to keep raising output each year.

Indonesia's Adaro Energy expects 2011 coal production up 5 million tonnes from last year to 46-48 million tonnes, and then to nearly 50 million in 2012, while Bayan Resources is aiming to more than double its output to as much as 25 mil-lion tonnes by 2013.

Indonesia is expected to make up 39 percent of the global increase in coal exports, with Adaro and top miner Bumi Re-sources becoming two of the top three exporters by 2015. Australia will follow closely behind in terms of growth.

India will surpass Japan as the leading buyer of Indonesian coal this year, the country's coal association told Reuters, and India's demand will continue to surge as electricity demand is expected to rise 56 percent by 2017. China will now face stiff competition from India for Indonesian coal. Coal India , the world's top coal miner, is in talks to buy up to 40 percent of Golden Energy Mines in Indonesia, where Chinese firms have struggled to buy mines.

"This year we're expecting more than 45 percent of our pro-duction will go to India and China. I'm fairly confident that these two countries will lead demand in the future," said Berau's Natalina.

Executives at the conference said on Monday that top coal consumer China should see import demand more than double in the next four years and India would be close behind as both snap up supplies to feed rapidly growing power industries.

While India and China's power needs are well known, the con-ference heard other fast-growing nations in the region are also planning sizeable coal demand increases, likely a reflec-

tion of the high price of diesel, unreliability of hydro and start-up costs of nuclear.

Vietnam's Tan Tao Energy Corp sees coal demand in the country increasing to more than 100 million tonnes by 2025, and will likely look to Australia, Indonesia as well as Russia and Colombia. For South Korea's East West Power (EWP), the higher price of coal means it is looking to increase imports from the United States to diversify its supply from Indonesia and Australia. South Korea also has a long-term plan to re-duce coal use in its energy mix.

Indonesia to lead thermal coal export growth to 2020 By Rebekah Kebede

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

I ndonesia will lead global growth in thermal coal exports in the next decade with producers Bumi Resources and Adaro Energy becoming two of the top three coal export-

ing companies worldwide by 2015, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.

The Southeast Asian country, already the world's top exporter of thermal coal used to fuel power plants, will make up 39 percent of global increases in coal exports, followed closely by Australia, which accounts for 36 percent of export growth.

"Indonesia will be the largest country for growth in thermal coal exports ... (Bumi Resources and Adaro Energy) each own mines at the top of the 10 largest mine expansions for thermal exports in the world," Rudi Vann, a coal analyst with Wood Mackenzie told Reuters, adding that six of the 10 largest mine expansions globally will be in Indonesia.

(Continued on page 4)

GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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But Indonesia is saddled by poor port and transport infra-structure as well as power shortages, which analysts say are limiting its ability to fully develop its vast coal reserves of 21 billion tonnes from remote areas across the archipelago in Papua, Sumatra and Kalimantan.

The country has said it needs $150 billion to overhaul its infra-structure sector, relying on private investors for two-thirds of its needs with the latest being the multi-billion dollar invest-ment pledged by Indian conglomerate Reliance ADA Group.

By 2020, Indonesia's annual production will be above 500 million tonnes, a more than 50 percent increase from last year's production of 320 million tonnes.

About a quarter of that, some 130 million tonnes, will be from new greenfield projects, and about 60 percent of which will be exported.

CHINA OUTPUT LAGS DEMAND

Indonesia's coal export growth will be fueled in large part by China and India, where power demand is expected to lift coal imports significantly over the next five years.

Chinese coal imports could more than double by 2015, trading house Noble Group said. Wood Mackenzie estimates that China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, will produce an additional 1 billion tonnes through 2015 to meet that demand.

"If you put that into context with all the other coal producing countries around the world, there is far greater growth hap-pening in China than you're seeing anywhere else in the world," Vann said.

But with skyrocketing demand for fuel, Chinese domestic pro-duction will lag demand.

"We think it's going to become a structural shift where the local coal industry will not be able to keep up physically with them in China. For them to physically increase their produc-tion, there's a lot of infrastructure that needs to be built, a lot of coal projects that need to come online," Vann said.

Still, India, which will overtake Japan as the biggest buyer of Indonesian coal in 2011, will stay ahead of China in the compe-tition for supply from Indonesia, where it gets most of its ex-ports.

INVESTMENT NEEDED

The more than 50 percent surge in Indonesia's coal produc-tion will require significant investment, particularly as newer mines move farther inland, requiring additional infrastructure for export.

"With opportunities for thermal seaborne exports, Indonesia needs to continue to attract new investors to sustain produc-tion increases ahead of its largest competitor -- Australia," Vann said.

Despite complaints from some in the industry that Indonesia's recent overhaul of mining laws has stymied growth, Wood Mackenzie said Indonesia is relatively well placed to attract investment.

"Royalties have actually reduced as Indonesia tries to attract more investment into the country and the tax rate has also reduced for producers of coal from previous years to the cur-rent system," Vann said.

"Despite this uncertainty with the new regulations in place, Indonesia has continually increased its production and ex-ports over the last few years ... they always seem to find a way to work around these challenges."

COLUMN-Asia's coal demand not assured: Clyde Russell

By Clyde Russell --Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views ex-pressed are his own--

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, June 1 (Reuters) -

C oal in Asia is in a sweet spot for producers and traders with demand growing slightly faster than supply, keep-ing prices buoyant. That's the impression gained from

the industry's annual get-together at the Coaltrans confer-ence on the resort island of Bali.

Scratch beneath this rosy view and several problems start to emerge. Not enough to alter the positive scenario for coal, which dominates energy in China, but certainly enough to cast a few doubts on both supply and demand.

The big swing factor in Asia is China. The world's biggest pro-ducer and consumer of the fuel turned to a net importer in 2009 and may import about 100 million metric tonnes this year.

Estimates vary as to how much that will grow in coming years, with Neil Dhar, an executive vice president at Noble Group, estimating 200 million tonnes by 2015 and Ian Roper of CLSA Asia Pacific Markets picking 250 million tonnes.

These sound like big numbers and in the context of current seaborne coal shipments of about 700 million tonnes a year, they are. But they are tiny relative to the overall China coal market, which stands at more than 3 billion tonnes a year.

The big unknown is: can China maintain, or even expand, its domestic coal output? The nation has been consolidating out-put by closing small and unsafe mines while state-owned big producers have ambitious growth targets.

China is also trying to develop new coal areas in the western provinces, but this will only exacerbate the problem of how to get the coal from where it is, mainly in the north and west, to where it is needed in the heavily industrialised south and east.

New rail and port facilities may ease some of the congestion, but it is easy to see how some minor changes in China's out-put, either higher or lower, can make a major difference to its demand for imported coal. As Alex Green, vice president of energy marketing at BHP Billiton Ltd., told the conference, a 1 percent swing in China's forecast demand in 2020 equals 40 million tonnes, which will be 20 percent of the expected ex-port capacity at Australia's Newcastle Port, the world's big-gest export harbour for thermal coal.

The other major growing consumer in Asia is India, which im-ported about 58 million tonnes last year. By 2015 the demand for imported coal will reach 180 million tonnes, according to Sridhar Chandrasekhar, head of research at CRISIL Ltd., an Indian unit of Standard & Poor's.

GRAPHIC of Chinese domestic vs imported coal prices:

( http://link.reuters.com/tuz79r ) (Continued on page 5)

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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However, India's capacity to actually import coal will probably only be about 120 million tonnes by then because of port and rail capacity constraints, he said.

Added to that are doubts over whether the ambitious building programme of coal-fired plants will be delivered on time, and a question mark has to be placed over India's coal demand. On the flip side, plans to boost domestic output are also fraught, with environmental concerns as many reserves are in forest areas, as well as opposition from Maoist rebels in some coal areas.

As for the rest of Asia, Japan's coal demand is expected to be steady at around 110 million tonnes a year, Taiwan may in-crease slightly and South Korea may cut by a small quantity. Vietnam plans to import as much as 37 million tonnes a year, but not for several years while it builds an import terminal and power plants in the south of the country.

On the supply side, Indonesia appears best placed to take advantage of increased demand. The nation should boost production by 133 million tonnes by 2020, according to Rudi Vann, lead analyst for Southeast and Northeast Asia coal re-search at Wood Mackenzie. Of that, 60 percent will be avail-able for export, he said.

China will be the likely buyer of increased output, as an in-crease of 1 billion tonnes in its own production by 2020 won't be enough to keep pace with demand, Vann said.

But for Indonesia to succeed it needs foreign investment and that needs regulatory certainty, which is something that is still a work in progress.

The granting of mining permits is a source of tension between the federal and local governments, and Indonesia also has transport constraints that could hamper export growth.

The other major regional exporter Australia also faces infra-structure challenges, and the high local currency has boosted the cost of production and also the expense of building or expanding mines.

Thermal coal exports may reach 250 million tonnes by 2015, according to figures from the government's forecaster, not quite double current figures. Coking coal used for steelmaking may rise a third to about 200 million tonnes.

Putting everything together, it seems that forecast growth in demand in Asia will outstrip estimated increases in production in Indonesia and Australia.

Of course, coal can come from other places, with South Afri-can fuel already making inroads into India, and cargoes from Colombia reaching Asia. Exports from the U.S. West Coast are likely and Mongolia is keen for a share of the Chinese action too.

The big "known unknown," as former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might have said, is China. Traders say China is a very price sensitive buyer, only entering the coal market when the price of seaborne deliveries is close to or below the domestic price.

This means that for the bullish coal demand scenario to play out on the back of anticipated Chinese imports, prices will have to remain tied to China's domestic market. Extra coal volumes may well be at the cost of higher prices.

(Continued on page 6)

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011 SILVER SHINES ON INVESTOR, INDUSTRY DEMAND APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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J-Power says Japan coal demand may hit 120 mln T in 2012 By Rebekah Kebede

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

J apan's coal demand may to return to 120 million tonnes next year, as the nation recovers from the earthquake and tsunami that knocked several coal-fired plants offline, an

executive with major power wholesaler Electric Power Devel-opment Co (J-Power) said on Tuesday.

The rebound will come after J-Power earlier said that it has cut its 2011 thermal coal demand forecast for Japan to 110 million tonnes due to the impact of the massive earthquake in March.

"Japan's imports of coal for next year will be close to last fiscal year's -- around 120 million tonnes -- because some plants will come back online," Masato Uchiyama, J-Power's director of energy business told Reuters. He hopes that most power plants that were down would return by mid-2012.

"Some big coal-fired power plants are still heavily damaged... it will take quite a long time (for them to come back online). We hope they will come back by next summer," Uchiyama said.

J-Power's coal demand will likely remain around the same levels as the 21 million tonnes it consumed in 2010/2011, but the utility has not yet finalised it's forecast for the year.

Due to the aftermath of the tsunami in March, Japan is likely to face a power shortfall with peak demand during the height of summer -- from late July to mid-August -- likely to be 60-65 Gigawatts, while supply will fall short at 55 Gigawatts. "There's still more than a 10 percent gap between supply and demand," Uchiyama said.

While utilities will be cranking up power, users will have to cut back on electricity usage both for commercial uses such as factories and offices, but also in individual homes, he added. This comes as Japan's economy showed more signs of recov-ery from the earthquake.

NEED FOR FRESH SUPPLIES

Although the global coal market is currently relatively bal-anced and neutral price-wise in the short-term, there are fac-tors that could create coal supply tightness.

"If there are constraints like the rains last year --Australia had floods and Indonesia had heavy rain through the year -- if that happens next year, the supply-demand balance will be de-stroyed. But if the production side is okay next year, then the market will be balanced," Uchiyama said.

The impact of Germany's recent decision to permanently close several nuclear reactors in response to the Fukushima nuclear crisis is also unknown, he said.

In the long-term, however, coal supply for Asia will continue to tighten as China and India's demand surges.

Uncertainties in terms of supplies are a challenge in trying to gauge the long-term market.

"In the long term perspective, there are some bottlenecks to the supply side. Port facilities and capacity, the new coal mines coming online -- there are some unknown factors to the supply side," Uchiyama said.

"We need more fresh coal to enter into the Asian market... demand is very strong. We need fresh coal from other areas, not only Indonesia and Australia."

(Continued on page 7)

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011 SILVER SHINES ON INVESTOR, INDUSTRY DEMAND APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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The United States and Colombia could be potential suppliers, he said, although J-Power has received a limited number of cargoes from the U.S. This reflected plans by South Korea's East West Power (EWP) to raise coal imports from the U.S., as it looks to diversify its supply sources from Indonesia and Aus-tralia to manage rising costs.

"It depends on the U.S. economy and how to use coal domes-tically," Uchiyama said. "If they reduce U.S. domestic coal us-age, they have some room to export coal. The market will de-cide."

Japan's J-Power lowers 2011 Japan coal demand forecast NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

E lectric Power Development Co (J-Power) has cut its 2011 thermal coal demand forecast for Japan to 110 million tonnes from 120 million tonnes due to the im-

pact of the earthquake, which knocked several power plants offline and depressed demand.

It is currently unclear when some of the coal-fired plants that were shut after the earthquake and nuclear crisis that hit the northeast coast of Japan on March 11, will come back online, Masato Uchiyama, the company's director of energy business told a coal industry conference on Tuesday.

"In 2011, our estimate for the thermal coal outlook for Japan has been decreased by 10 million tonnes from previous years to around 110 million tonnes per year," he said.

The revision also takes into account the recovery of coal de-mand in the damaged region and requirements from coal-fired plants not in the earthquake-affected areas that are ex-pected to increase to some extent, he said.

Japan's coal imports for 2010 were 101.6 million tonnes, fi-nance ministry data showed. Its overall thermal coal imports fell 13.4 percent last month versus a year earlier to 6.59 mil-lion tonnes, while imports from Indonesia dropped 22 percent to 1.19 million tonnes, as some coal-fired power plants along the northeast coast remain shut.

Uchiyama said that under the 2007-2030 strategic energy plan, Japan aims to build nine additional nuclear units by 2020 and another five additional units by 2030.

"This plan will surely be revised after extensive discussions because of the nuclear incident, he said. "Our review of nu-clear policy is unavoidable," he said, adding that energy diver-sification may include more use of liquefied natural gas and renewables.

"In the foreseeable forecast (thermal coal) demand will be maintained."

Just last month J-Power, Japan's biggest thermal coal con-sumer, said it might buy millions of tonnes of coal more than it forecast in March after utilities asked the Japanese power wholesaler to increase its supply for the summer.

In March, J-Power said it would buy more than 20 million ton-nes of thermal coal in the financial year that began in April, versus 21 million tonnes in 2010/11.

(Continued on page 8)

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011

A worker walks with a shovel during a lunch break at a coal yard in Jammu February 3, 2011. REUTERS/Mukesh Gupta

SILVER SHINES ON INVESTOR, INDUSTRY DEMAND APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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The earthquake and tsunami on March 11 crippled Tokyo Elec-tric Power Co's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, rais-ing safety concerns and making utilities keep nuclear reactors shut for maintenance for longer periods than usual to conduct extra checks.

During the height of the crisis, several cargoes of Indonesian coal bound for Japan had been delayed and diverted to coun-tries such as China.

J-Power operates several large coal-fired and hydropower stations across the country and sells power to Japan's nine regional power companies.

Japan shipments down almost 70 pct in 2011 -Berau Coal By Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

B erau Coal's shipments to quake-hit Japan will fall al-most 70 percent this year but will be diverted to other markets such as China, a manager at the Indonesian miner said on Tuesday.

Japanese coal demand and imports were hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March this year, which led to se-vere power supply disruptions.

"Unfortunately our customer facility broke down because of the tsunami," Eko BF Natalina, marketing and sales general manager at Berau Coal told Reuters on the sidelines of Coal-trans Asia conference.

"We must transfer to other markets," he said. "We have a cer-tain number of reliable customers, and they welcome addi-tional (material)."

Earlier on Tuesday, Natalina said Berau's coal output would be 20 million tonnes this year, rising to 23 million tonnes in 2012 and 30 million by 2014.

Last year Japan bought 600,000 tonnes of Berau coal but this is likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, Natalina said.

"This year, maybe not much because of the incident in March," he told Reuters, adding that output was 17 million tonnes in 2010.

Indonesia, the world's top exporter of thermal coal, is ex-pected to produce around 340 million tonnes of coal this year -- mainly lower grade coal, used predominantly in countries such as China and India.

On Monday the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said India will overtake Japan as the top buyer of Indonesian coal this year, taking as much as 60 million tonnes to help meet its burgeoning power demand.

Asked which country would be of greatest importance to Indo-nesian coal exports over the next five years, Natalina did not hesitate. "China," he said.

"They have very big demand and they are also strong in terms of currency."

China will buy 25-30 percent of Berau's output this year, he added.

Berau signed contracts in May with two Chinese firms to sup-ply a total 3 million tonnes of coal a year.

Other markets Berau sells its coal to include Indonesian do-mestic firms, South Korea, Taiwan, and India.

The firm's contracts consist of spot-market one-to-three month contracts, one-year contracts and also multi-year con-tracts from three to five years, said Natalina.

"Most power stations prefer to have multi-year contracts, but then, they will negotiate prices annually."

Japan coal & LNG consumption:

( http://link.reuters.com/cat59r )

30 MILLION DEFICIT?

Natalina, who has worked in the coal industry for the last 20 years, sees a global deficit in 2011.

"I'm talking with my customers and friends (and) total sea-born will be maybe 600 million tonnes -- that means supply and demand," he said. "The gap will not be more than 30 mil-lion tonnes (deficit), maybe range between 10-30 million.

"As a coal producer, I'm expecting a deficit."

Pushed on whether Indonesian output will struggle to keep pace with rising demand in Asia in the coming years, Natalina said current government regulation would support.

"Two factors also need to be considered -- the weather and heavy equipment," he said. "Some of the producers, to go to mass production, must use big scale equipment and this equipment is limited, especially after the Japan incident.

"The supply ability of big machines will be affected at least for the next one or two years."

Delegates at the conference are also discussing uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's freshly signed two-year moratorium on new permits to clear primary forests.

The moratorium ordered a freeze on new permits to log or convert primary forests and peatlands -- worrying palm oil, timber and mining firms in Southeast Asia's biggest economy -- but not going far enough for environmentalists.

"I always start with positive thinking, so in one sense it will be good and support the industry," said Natalina.

"(But) at the same time we need intensive consultation with the government," he said, adding that more detail and clarity was needed.

Indonesia's Adaro sees 2011 coal output up to 46-48 mln T NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

I ndonesian coal miner Adaro Energy expects 2011 coal pro-duction up 5 million tonnes from last year to 46-48 million tonnes, a director at the firm said on Tuesday.

Rising production costs are the biggest challenge facing Indo-nesia's largest coal miner, director Edwin Tsang told the Coal-trans Asia conference.

"We are putting in investments due to lower logistical costs, because heavy equipment costs are rising, labour rising, ex-plosives costs are rising," said Tsang. Indonesia, the world's top exporter of thermal coal, is expected to produce 340 mil-lion tonnes this year, compared with 320 million tonnes in 2010.

(Continued on page 9)

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011 SILVER SHINES ON INVESTOR, INDUSTRY DEMAND APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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"I think around 310 (million tonnes) to just under 340," Tsang added. "As far as Adaro is concerned, this year our budget is to produce between 46 to 48 million tonnes."

"It's up ... by around close to 5 million tonnes," he added. "Next year is very difficult to say, probably it should be up -- closer to 50 million tones."

On Monday the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said India will overtake Japan as the top buyer of Indonesian coal this year, taking as much as 60 million tonnes to help meet its burgeoning power demand.

Japanese demand and imports were hit by the earthquake and tsunami to hit the country in March of this year, while In-dia is attempting to boost its power supplies significantly in the coming years.

"This year we're expecting more than 45 percent of our pro-duction will go to India and China," said Eko BF Natalina, gen-eral manager of marketing and sales at Berau Coal .

"I'm fairly confident that these two countries will lead demand in the future, and in 2012 as well," he added. "In the first quar-ter of this year, China was quite silent but they come back and next year they will continue to contribute significantly to the coal market industry."

Natalina said Berau's coal output would be 20 million tonnes this year, rising to 23 million tonnes in 2012 and 30 million by 2014.

S.Korea to boost U.S. coal imports to diversify sources By Rebekah Kebede

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

S outh Korea's East West Power (EWP) is looking to in-crease coal imports from the United States as it looks to diversify its supply sources from Indonesia and Austra-

lia to manage rising coal costs, a company executive said on Tuesday.

South Korean utilities, or gencos, have looked farther afield as prices in the Pacific basin for coal from the world's two largest coal exporters, Indonesia and Australia have risen, Jason Jang, EWP's head of fuel procurement told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry conference.

"Due to Korea gencos' efforts to cool down increasing coal prices, South African, Russian and even Colombian coal has been delivered into S.Korea, replacing Australian coal," Jang said.

U.S. coal supply to South Korea has been expanding from only a couple of panamax ships before 2009 to 3 million ton-nes in 2010, Jang said. In 2011, South Korea will likely import more than 3 million tonnes of U.S. coal on contract and over 4 million tonnes on the spot market, he added.

"We are trying to introduce more U.S. coal on the condition that the delivered price is better," Jang said, but added that so far the declining U.S. domestic coal market has worked in South Korea's favour.

(Continued on page 10)

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Coal being loaded in Tanjong Priok port in Jakarta. REUTERS/Crack Palinggi

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10

"The U.S. is not so friendly to the coal industry. The U.S. coal industry knows that and they also would like to convert their markets internally to the export markets," Jang said.

The majority of U.S. coal imported to South Korea originates in the Powder River Basin in the U.S. western states of Wyo-ming and Montana.

Asian coal prices have a bullish long-term outlook, though they have been depressed in recent months, largely due to the aftermath of the Japanese quake and tsunami in March that knocked out some coal-fired plants.

The index for Australian coal on the globalCOAL index closed at $119.47 a tonne last Friday, down from more than $140 in January when prices were pushed up by flooding and wet weather in Australia's eastern Queensland state.

Graphic of API2/DES ARA coal prices:

( http://link.reuters.com/nyr79r )

RETHINKING OF NUCLEAR "INEVITABLE"

South Korea's power baseload is expected to shift from 41 percent coal in 2011 to 31 percent in 2024, as nuclear capacity comes online, Jang said.

"Nuclear power plants are now being considered as the cheapest power source... in order to take the initiative to a greener energy structure, Korea's government has decided to rely more on nuclear power plants rather than conventional fuels such as coal," Jang said, adding that after 2016, coal consumption is estimated to go down rapidly.

Still, South Korea may see a rethinking of its nuclear strategy in the aftermath of Japan's nuclear crisis.

"I think some adjustments will be inevitable after the nuclear power plant issues in Fukushima, people are concerned about more nuclear power plants coming online," Jang said.

But he added that even if South Korea decided to scale back on nuclear power, it will likely result in a ramp up of liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand and renewables rather than coal.

All eyes are currently on the policymakers who dictate South Korea's power industry structure, and a spirited debate on the topic is likely to take place in the next one to two years, he said.

"This is more of a political decision... At this time, there is no impact at all," Jang said.

South Korea has five utilities, which are fully owned by

Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO) -- Korea Midland Power Co Ltd, Korea Western Power Co Ltd, Korea East-West Power Co Ltd, Korea South-East Power Co Ltd and Korea Southern Power Co Ltd. KEPCO also fully owns Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co.

Kalimantan junior coal miners top pick for Pacific By Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

J unior Indonesian coal miners in the Kalimantan region are best placed to take advantage of India's massive drive to boost its power supplies, Asia-focused fund investment

manager Pacific Alliance Group said on Tuesday.

Kalimantan on Borneo island in the east is favoured over rival coal mining regions such as Sumatra, due to the western In-donesian island's problems with infrastructure, said Kanak Kapur, a partner at the fund that has "several billion dollars under management".

"We as a fund are concentrating on Kalimantan," Kapur said. "We are looking at projects in Sumatra as well, but we are a little concerned about the infrastructure there, and the ports there, and the quality of the coal."

Indonesia, the world's top exporter of thermal coal, has poor infrastructure, which analysts say is one of the factors restrict-ing economic growth.

Coal producers in the archipelago of 17,000 islands, have to grapple with power shortages, a lack of roads and ageing ports.

Investment is slowly happening though, with Reliance ADA Group, a leading Indian conglomerate, the latest to announce a multi-billion dollar infrastructure investment.

"Kalimantan for us is the sweet spot, and we're very keen to talk to junior minors in this region," added Kapur.

"Most of the better quality coal is in Kalimantan." A small-scale East Kalimantan coal miner who shared the platform with Pacific, included Adimitra Baratama Nusantara.

Although Indonesia's coal is largely sub-bituminous material with a lower heating value compared with standard Australian grades, Chinese and Indian utilities have been absorbing more and more of its exports to help feed robust domestic demand.

Both China and India have launched ambitious plans to boost power supplies in coming years, with Indian electricity de-mand set to rise 56 percent to 1,400 billion kilowatt hours by the fiscal year ending March 2017.

"We've been looking at coal demand for a while, and have come to the conclusion that India and China is going to be a huge part of that coal demand," said Kapur, who was talking at the Coaltrans Asia conference.

India's growing coal imports:( http://link.reuters.com/sej97p)

"India is of particular interest to us, and the reason is there is a large number of power projects, generation type capacity that's under construction... I've heard numbers up to 100,000 (megawatts)," Kapur said.

"All of that is getting commissioned pre-2017," he said. "A number of the power generators have a huge problem... Coal linkage -- a condition for financial closure -- for at least 40,000-45,000 megawatts has yet to be underwritten."

On Monday, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said India will overtake Japan as top buyer of Indonesian coal this year, taking as much as 60 million tonnes to help meet its bur-geoning power demand.

Taipower sees Taiwan coal demand at 44 mln tonnes by 2021 NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

S tate-run Taipower expects Taiwan's coal demand to grow to over 44 million tonnes by 2021 from 25.7 mil-lion tonnes last year, a company executive said on Tuesday.

(Continued on page 11)

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Taipower sees coal demand up about 1 million tonnes year-over-year in 2011. But it expects a temporary decreased in 2013, due to an effort to replace inefficient coal-fired units, followed by a rapid ramp up, Solar S. H. Lin, chief of Tai-power's thermal coal section told a coal conference on Tues-day.

Tan Tao Energy sees Vietnam coal demand at 100 mln tns by 2025 NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 31 (Reuters) -

V ietnam's Tan Tao Energy Corp sees coal demand in the country increasing to more than 100 million tonnes by 2025, and will likely look to Australia, Indonesia, Rus-

sia, and Colombia to meet that demand.

The country currently produces just 10 million tonnes per year of coal and will have to put infrastructure in place to import coal, Nguyen Van Tau, vice president told a coal conference on Tuesday.

China coal imports to double in 2015, India close behind By Rebekah Kebede and Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 30 (Reuters) -

T op coal consumer China should see import demand more than double in the next four years and India will be close behind as both hoover up supplies on interna-

tional markets to feed rapidly growing power industries, in-

dustry executives said on Monday.

China's thermal coal imports could rise to 200 million tonnes in 2015 from around 90 million tonnes in 2011, Neil Dhar, ex-ecutive vice president of trading house Noble Group , told the Coaltrans Asia conference.

At 90 million tonnes, China's 2011 imports would be steady from 2010, he said. That would indicate shipments would rise for the rest of the year, as China's imports in the first four months of 2011 were down a quarter on 2010.

The flow into China, which emerged as the world's second-largest coal importer after Japan last year, fluctuates accord-ing to domestic coal prices and whether or not those are high enough to encourage more electricity output from coal-fired power producers.

China boosted power prices on Monday in an attempt to ease its worst power shortages since 2004. That may encourage more coal imports to boost power supply.

India's thermal imports could rise to more than 100 million tonnes by 2015, from around 67 million tonnes in 2011, Dhar said. Imports would jump by almost 10 million tonnes this year, he added.

Despite a bullish long-term outlook, Asian coal prices have been depressed in recent months, largely due to the after-math of the Japanese quake and tsunami in March that knocked out some coal-fired plants.

The index for Australian coal on the globalCOAL index closed at $119.47 a tonne on Friday, down from more than $140 in January when prices were driven up by flooding and wet weather in Australia's eastern Queensland state.

(Continued on page 12)

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011

A labourer carries a basket filled with coal at a railway yard in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh January 20, 2011. India plans to launch its first round of coal block auctions in the first half of next fiscal, Coal Minister Shriprakash Jaiswal told reporters on Thursday. REUTERS/Ajay Verma

SILVER SHINES ON INVESTOR, INDUSTRY DEMAND APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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WHO BUYS MORE FROM INDONESIA?

India will overtake Japan as the biggest buyer of Indonesian coal in 2011, staying ahead of China in the competition for supply from the world's top thermal coal supplier. Most of India's coal imports come from Indonesia.

India's domestic shortfall in coal supplies to meet power de-mand will spur the country to import up to 60 million tonnes from Indonesia this year, five million tonnes more than last year and surpassing Japan as top importer, said Bob Kaman-danu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association.

Imports from Indonesia to India, Asia's third-largest economy, would race to 90 million tonnes by 2013, Kamandanu told Reuters.

"Japan has traditionally been the leader at importing Indone-sian coal, but now India is surpassing it," Kamandanu said on the sidelines of the conference. "In terms of tonnage, India is moving towards 50-60 million tonnes... very strong.

Demand from India's growing number of independent power producers would push the country's imports, Kamandanu said.

Japan, which suffered a massive earthquake and tsunami in March, would import 57 million to 58 million tonnes of Indo-nesian coal this year, down from previous peaks of around 65 million tonnes and unchanged from 2010.

The disaster in Japan shut down some coal-fired power plants along the northeastern coast, crimping demand. Japan's ther-mal coal imports in April fell 13.4 percent on the year to 6.591 million tonnes.

CRANKING UP OUTPUT

Indonesia's coal mining companies are already cranking up production to meet the fast pace of demand growth, and the country and Kamandanu forecast the country would produce 340 million tonnes this year up from 320 million tonnes in 2010.

"All the big guys are increasing their numbers," he said.

Bayan Resources Tbk , the country's eighth-largest coal miner, is projected to more than double its output to as much as 25 million tonnes by 2013 versus last year, said chief financial officer Alastair McLeod. The company's main focus was on striking long-term supply deal to India, he added.

Bayan expects to produce 14.5 million to 15.5 million tonnes in 2011, up from 11.9 million tonnes in 2010, he told Reuters in an interview.

"We started two new mines in 2008 and two new mines in 2009, therefore they have a ramp-up profile over four or five years before they get up to their capacity," McLeod said. "We'll be continually ramping up -- our target by 2013 is to get to 20-25 million tonnes."

Another major Indonesian coal producer, Bhakti Energi, is also eyeing the stiffening competition between China and India for Indonesian supplies.

"India has no alternative for its energy resources. India will become a very good importer for Indonesia," said Bhakti's president director Jeffrey Mulyono.

"China is different. China is growing well in demand but they still have alternatives for fulfilling (coal) combinations with their own development."

Mulyono expects Indonesian coal output to rise at least 10 percent annually over five years, and sees the easternmost province of Papua tapping into its huge coal reserves longer-term.

India set to be top Indonesia coal importer By Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 30 (Reuters) -

I ndia will surpass Japan as the leading buyer of Indonesian coal this year, taking as much as 60 million tonnes to help meet burgeoning power demand in Asia's third-biggest

economy, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said on Monday.

India will import 5 million tonnes more coal from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, in 2011 compared to last year, with the total set to jump to 90 million tonnes by 2013, Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the association, told Reuters.

"In the past, Japan has traditionally been the leader at import-ing Indonesian coal, but now India is surpassing it," Kaman-danu said on the sidelines of the Coaltrans Asia conference. "In terms of tonnage, India is moving towards 50-60 million tonnes... very strong.

"There are a lot of new IPPs (independent power producers) on board," he added. "It could go up to 90 million tones (in 2013) for India."

Electricity demand in India is expected to rise 56 percent to 1,400 billion kilowatt hours by the fiscal year ending March 2017.

Kamandanu added that India has been able to access such large amounts of Indonesian coal through long-lasting rela-tionships with existing Indonesian producers, which are ramp-ing up output.

"Of course also from the acquisition of the assets," he said. "A lot of Indian investors (are) acquiring the assets."

Coal India , the world's top coal miner, is in advanced talks to buy up to 40 percent of Indonesian low-grade coal producer Golden Energy Mines for up to $1 billion, three sources with direct knowledge of the deal said.

Most Indonesian coal is mined in East Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and South Sumatra.

Although Indonesia's coal is largely sub-bituminous material with a lower heating value compared with standard Australian grades, Chinese and Indian utilities have been snapping up more and more of its exports to help sate booming domestic demand.

Kamandanu said Japan, which suffered a devastating earth-quake and tsunami in March, would import 57 million to 58 million tonnes of Indonesian coal this year, down from previ-ous highs of around 65 million tonnes and unchanged from 2010.

Japan's overall thermal coal imports fell 13.4 percent last month versus a year earlier to 6.591 million tonnes, while im-ports from Indonesia dropped 22 percent to 1.193 million ton-nes, finance ministry data showed, as some coal-fired power plants along the northeast coast have been shut down.

(Continued on page 13)

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13

On the earthquake and resulting power crisis, Kamandanu said: "There is going to be an impact, however Japan always takes high-quality coal mainly from Australia... They should start looking at lower quality if they want to secure the supply of coal."

Coal prices have stuck between $120 and $130 a tonne de-spite the recent commodity sell-off and disasters in Australia and Japan.

The second half of 2011 appears more robust as Asian de-mand is set to increase, although the near term looks less solid, Bank Of America Merrill Lynch said in its recent Global Energy Weekly report.

OUTPUT STEADILY RISING

Indonesia will produce 340 million tonnes this year, compared with 320 million tonnes in 2010, Kamandanu said.

"All the big guys are increasing their numbers," he said of In-donesian coal producers.

In an effort to support the domestic industry and add value to its coal exports, the Indonesian energy and minerals ministry has been drafting a regulation that would by 2014 require coal producers to upgrade low-quality coal to medium quality before exporting. "If there is a regulation saying you cannot export it before being processed, it's a bit mistaken," said Ka-mandanu.

"We don't mind having that kind of regulation, but then we have to have proven technology."Another challenge for Indo-nesian miners is the freshly signed two-year moratorium on new permits to clear primary forests

The moratorium ordered a freeze on new permits to log or convert primary forests and peatlands -- worrying palm oil,

timber and mining firms in Southeast Asia's biggest economy -- but not going far enough for environmentalists.

"We're still waiting for the final map and which locations are allowed and not allowed," Kamandanu said.

"In terms of the idea, I'm not for it, I'm against it," he added. "The emissions of CO2 in Indonesia is well below the devel-oped countries... Indonesia's income is mainly based on natu-ral resources."

Bayan aims to double coal output by 2013 By Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 30 (Reuters) -

I ndonesian coal miner Bayan Resources Tbk is aiming to more than double its output to as much as 25 million ton-nes by 2013 to meet rising demand from consumers such

as India, the firm's chief financial officer said on Monday.

The company, which produced 11.9 million tonnes of coal last year and expects output to rise to between 14.5 million and 15.5 million tonnes in 2011, is currently carrying out expansion plans at its mines, Alastair McLeod told Reuters at the Coal-trans Asia conference.

"We started two new mines in 2008 and two new mines in 2009, therefore they have a ramp-up profile over four or five years before they get up to their capacity," McLeod said. "We'll be continually ramping up -- our target by 2013 is to get to 20-25 million tonnes."

(Continued on page 14)

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A worker stands on a wall near the water-cooling towers of a coal-fired power plant, in Beijing May 24, 2011. REUTERS/Jason Lee

COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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In late April, Bayan said it expected to produce 13 million to 15 million tonnes of coal this year.

Bayan, Indonesia's eighth-largest coal producer, is 20 percent-owned by Korea Electric Power Corp and has open-pit mines located in East Kalimantan.

The firm exports most of its coal to countries and regions that include Europe, Taiwan, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea.

India, Asia's third-largest economy, is the biggest market for Bayan by volume, accounting for about 30 percent of all ex-ports, McLeod said.

"In India currently we don't have any long-term contracts, so mostly selling on an annual basis," he said. "To other coun-tries, we have got long-term contracts.

"We tend to like long-term contracts -- three years plus," he added. "Certain markets don't accept three years, like the Japanese, who do a one-yearly but it pretty much rolls over."

Electricity demand in India, Asia's third-largest economy, is expected to rise 56 percent to 1,400 billion kwh by the fiscal year ending in March 2017.

"India is expanding," said McLeod, adding that the 30 percent figure was little changed since last year and was unlikely to change until after 2013 when more Indian power plants come on-line.

"We look at India as a base for more long-term customers... China is definitely on everyone's radar but it's not our main focus," he added.

Despite a bullish long-term outlook Asian coal prices have been depressed in recent months, largely due to the after-math of the Japanese quake and tsunami in March that knocked out some coal-fired plants.

The index for Australian coal on the globalCOAL index closed at $119.47 a tonne on Friday, down from more than $140 in January when prices were driven up by flooding and wet weather in Australia's eastern Queensland state.

Shares of Bayan Resources rose 0.29 by 0647 GMT, outper-forming the 0.13 percent drop in the main Jakarta index.

JAPAN SHIPMENTS OK

Bayan sends 10-15 percent of its exports to Japan, which suf-fered an energy crisis after a massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11. McLeod said the impact of the quake on Bayan was limited.

"It just (so) happened, we had been pushing for all of our re-maining shipments on a Japanese fiscal year to be delivered in the first quarter," he said. "Apart from two ships, we achieved that." More of a dilemma for Indonesian coal producers, how-ever, is uncertainty surrounding the freshly inked two-year moratorium on new permits to clear primary forests.

The moratorium ordered a freeze on new permits to log or convert primary forests and peatlands -- worrying palm oil, timber and mining firms in Southeast Asia's biggest economy -- but not going far enough for environmentalists.

"Our understanding is, for mines already in existence -- and the ministry is compiling that list at the moment -- you will be able to get renewals of your license," said McLeod. "If you get on the list now, if your renewal comes in the moratorium time, you'll be able to renew, but for new players, you won't. "We're very happy that they have taken account of an existing opera-tion."

Another challenge for Indonesia, the world's top exporter of thermal coal, is poor infrastructure -- which analysts say is one of the factors restricting economic growth.

(Continued on page 15)

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Coal producers in the archipelago of 17,000 islands, have to grapple with power shortages, a lack of roads and ageing ports. Investment is slowly happening though, with Reliance ADA Group, a leading Indian conglomerate, the latest to an-nounce a multi-billion dollar infrastructure investment.

"We don't use public roads, apart from to get to our mines," said McLeod. "You can't rely on public transportation -- there isn't any and you have to build your own." Indonesia, which is expected to produce about 340 million tonnes of coal this year, produces mainly lower grade coal, used predominantly in emerging markets.

"You've got an awful lot of the mines that have developed close to the coasts," McLeod said. "If the Indonesian govern-ment wants to further expand the coal business, it really needs to start looking further in-land. "You are most likely looking at rail transportation for that far a distance, and cer-tainty over land purchase would be an intricate part of that."

Noble sees China 2011 coal imports flat at 90 mln T NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 30 (Reuters) -

N oble Group expects Chinese coal import demand in 2011 to remain steady around 90 million tonnes and India's imports to jump by almost 10 million tonnes to

67 million tonnes in 2011, a company executive said on Mon-day.

Although imports by China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, will remain steady in 2011, they are set to increase to as much as 200 million tonnes in 2015, Neil Dhar, executive vice president of Noble Group, told a coal industry conference. China's imports fluctuate according to its domes-tic coal prices -- in recent months, higher domestic prices have resulted in an increase in imports, particularly from Indo-nesia

India will surpass Japan to become the leading buyer of Indo-nesian coal this year, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said earlier on Monday. In the long term, China and India's rapidly increasing coal demand is expected to drive increases in production.

Despite a bullish long-term outlook Asian coal prices have been depressed in recent months, in large part due to the aftermath of the Japanese tsunami that knocked out some coal-fired plants.

On Friday, the index for Australian coal on the globalCOAL index closed at $119.47 per tonne, down from over $140 per tonne in January when prices were driven up by flooding and wet weather in Australia's eastern state of Queensland.

Indonesia coal output seen up 10 pct/yr, Papua key By Michael Taylor

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, May 30 (Reuters) -

C oal output in Indonesia, the world's top exporter of thermal coal, will rise by at least 10 percent annually over the next five years, with Papua seen tapping into

its huge coal reserves longer-term, producer Bhakti Energi Persada said on Monday.

Indonesia is forecast to produce around 340 million tonnes of coal this year -- mainly lower grade coal, used predominantly in developing countries like China and India.

"Not less than 10 percent," Bhakti's president director Jeffrey Mulyono told Reuters when asked about Indonesia's annual production growth over the next five years.

"In terms of demand, the most interesting and growing coun-tries will be India and China, with India number one importer," he said

Earlier on Monday, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said India will surpass Japan as the leading buyer of Indone-sian coal this year, taking as much as 60 million tonnes to help meet its burgeoning power demand.

"India has no alternative for their energy resources," he added. "China is different -- China is growing well in demand but they still have alternatives for fulfilling (coal) combinations with their own development."

Although Indonesia's coal is largely sub-bituminous material with a lower heating value compared with standard Australian grades, Chinese and Indian utilities have been snapping up more and more of its exports to help feed booming domestic demand.

Both India and China have launched aggressive and ambi-tious plans to ramp up power supplies in the coming years, with electricity demand in the former expected to rise 56 per-cent to 1,400 billion kilowatt hours by the fiscal year ending March 2017.

Mulyono, whose company is one of Indonesia's largest pro-ducers of brown coal, was speaking on the sidelines of the Coaltrans Asia conference.

Bhakti Energi Persada, a holding company of several mining companies located in East Kalimantan, has reserves of over 5 billion tonnes.

Mulyono sees huge coal potential in Papua, the easternmost province seen by many commodity firms as the next hot spot for agriculture and minerals development in Indonesia, though the area lacks roads and telecommunications.

"The only problem going there is (that) it is much more trou-blesome compared with Kalimantan," Mulyono said.

"They have more malaria, the transportation is expensive, there is no infrastructure," said Mulyono, who was previously chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association and Indo-nesian Mining Association.

"One day I tried to make a plan to view and investigate some areas -- it cost more than 200 million Indonesian rupiah ($23,364) for sending four people."

Delegates at the conference are also discussing uncertainty surrounding Indonesia's freshly signed two-year moratorium on new permits to clear primary forests.

The moratorium ordered a freeze on new permits to log or convert primary forests and peatlands -- worrying palm oil, timber and mining firms in Southeast Asia's biggest economy -- but not going far enough for environmentalists.

"I don't see it as a problem," said Mulyono, who has more than 30 years experience in the mining and related business indus-try, focusing on coal mining in the last 14 years.

GOLD GLITTERS AMID ECONOMIC WOES APRIL 2011 SILVER SHINES ON INVESTOR, INDUSTRY DEMAND APRIL 2011 GOLD, SILVER HOVER NEAR HIGHS ON WEAK DOLLAR APRIL 2011 —————————- MAY 2011 COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND COAL PRODUCERS IN RACE TO FEED BOOMING ASIA ENERGY DEMAND MAY-JUNE 2011 COAL PRODUCERS DEBATE ASIA'S ENERGY NEEDS IN BALI MAY-JUNE 2011

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