coaching startups under conditions of extreme uncertainties
TRANSCRIPT
COACHING START-UPS UNDER CONDITIONS OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTIES High-Tech Gründerfonds | Family Day 2016 Bonn, Germany | May 31st, 2016 Bernhard Doll | [email protected]
Note: Optimised for presentation with tablets
Start-ups can be game changers
in many industries...
…and sometimes a great way to burn
your money.
Many start-ups fail…
…because they build things nobody wants.
6
Atypicalchallenge:Fromtechnology...
...tofunc�onalprototypes
8
Affordable3Dprin�nghardware
Easy-to-useso�ware(evenfornon-engineers)
(Costly)consumablestomakeyourCFOhappy
...toproductsandservicesforpeople
...toinnova�vebusinessmodels.
Technology
Customers
Economics
Strategy
Istheinnova�ondesiredbycustomersandusers?
Istheinnova�ontechnologicallyfeasible? Istheinnova�on
suitabletoreachyourstrategictargets?
Istheinnova�oneconomicallyviable?
Innovation
Innovation is about dealing with uncertainties in areas where you are not
expert in.
Building start-ups is still in many ways an unstructured
and chaotic process.
How do you deal with uncertainties?
Ignoring the level of uncertainties by pretending the start-up process can be planned
1
2 �me
levelofuncertain�es
Embracing uncertainties by structuring the learning process in the most efficient way
Wewantstart-upsteamstoworkwiththeprecisionofsurgeons,architectsorscien�sts…
Business design StrategicManagement
SCRUM
Kanban
DesignThinking
(Social)Prototyping
BusinessModelling
BehavioralEconomics
LeanStartup
TeamResearch
Howdowedobusinessinthefuture?
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
Howcanweexcite
customerswithsimplemeans?
Howdoweworktogetherasateam?
…with
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
Howcanweexcite
customerswithsimplemeans?
Business Design is an integrative process model to design new business under conditions of extreme uncertainties.
visualworksheets
7weeksperitera�on
Let’s talk about a startup that didn’t fail…
Germany’slargestdistributorofresiden�almortgages
Howdowedobusinessinthefuture?
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Inspired by www.businessmodelgeneration.com.
BUSINESS MODEL Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Target groups
Who are our sales targets and who will be using our offerings?
Resources Partners
Primary
What is our primary customer and user segment that unlocks the most value in our business and is easilyaccessible?
Customers Users
InvestmentsCostsPricing & revenue streamsPatternHow much money do we need to spend before we earn?What are our revenue streams and how much do our customers pay (per unit)?How, when and how often do we charge our customers? What are the most important costs of creating and delivering the offerings?
Brand & messages Offerings
Channels
Relationships
Channels
Processes
Profit formula
What (internal) key resources do we need to create and deliver the offerings?
Who are our (external) key partners to create and deliver the offerings?
What bundle of products and services do we offer to our customers and users?
How do we want our brand to be perceived and what is our story to sell the offerings?
Through which channels do our customers and users want
to be reached?
What kinds of relationships do our customers and users expect?
Through which channels do our partners want to be reached?
What (internal) key processes do we need to create and deliver the offerings?
Delivery R&D
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#bml_en
Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done?
Job(s) to get done
Pains
Gains
What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy?
Unfairadvantage
What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done?
Core value
DNA
Incrementalredesign
Disruptiveinnovation
Use the “Hypotheses & Experiments Canvas” to challenge your business model by revealing critical assumptions and simple ways to test them.
Use the ”Target Groups Canvas” to segment customers and users based on behavioural attributes.
Howdowedobusinessinthefuture?
Thefirstbusinessmodelofinterhyp.de...
“Interhyp is Germany‘s largest distributor of residential mortgages. As a broker, Interhyp does not act as a lender but instead selects the best mortgages for its customers among offers from over 250 commercial banks, saving banks and insurance companies. We focus on competent, personal and objective consulting by our approximately 316 mortgage consultants. Private customers receive advice from our homepage www.interhyp.de and through 23 regional offices in key German cities.”
Source: Interhyp Annual Report 2011
…reliedondigitalsaleschannelsandacall-centertointeractwithcustomers.
What was their “big bet” on the future in their sales approach?
1. Discuss this question with your right neighbor
2. Describe your key hypothesis and how you would test it to manage your uncertainties
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
H: “They believed…” E: “I would have tested H by…”
1. Discuss this question with your right neighbor
2. Describe your key hypothesis and how you would test it to manage your uncertainties
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTSAnalogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers+ Users+ Brand & messages+ Channels+ Relationships+ Offerings+ Resources+ Processes+ Partners+ Profit formula+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Impo
rtan
ce
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even furtherbefore you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
ValidationExperiments
How can we test the identifiedhypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain?
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers.
Willthebigbanksacceptusasbusinesspartners?
DopeopletrustanITpla�ormformortgagebusiness?
Canwepreventcustomersfromtakingourratesanddefec�ngtootherbanks?
…thatX%ofourvisitorsonlandingpagesubmitanapplica�on
MVPwithleanwebfrontendandclosedALPHAcommunity
…applica�onsinourdatabaseandcustomers
connectedwithbanks
...thatXoutof50closethedealwithinMVPtestrunof2weeks
...thatXbigbanksjointhepla�ormandtransfertheirinterestratesdaily
LOInego�a�onswithbanks(S,M,
L)
...widerangeoffinancialproductsindatabase
Xoutof10bigbanksin
GermanysignanLOIwithinnext4
months
...
“Interhyp is Germany‘s largest distributor of residential mortgages. As a broker, Interhyp does not act as a lender but instead selects the best mortgages for its customers among offers from over 250 commercial banks, saving banks and insurance companies. We focus on competent, personal and objective consulting by our approximately 316 mortgage consultants. Private customers receive advice from our homepage www.interhyp.de and through 23 regional offices in key German cities.”
Source: Interhyp Annual Report 2011
Interhyp.detodaywith100physicalofficesacrossGermany.
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
What’s your “big bet” on the future in your real startup today?
Use the next five minutes to reflect on your current business(es) as founder, investor, coach etc.
coretools
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved.
LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Functional requirements
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en
Should haveWhat is the extended set of user stories that increases the value of the product and/or service to the next level?
What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)?A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least the following requirements:
+ Are your hypotheses covered?+ Can you charge your customers?+ Is your DNA embedded?+ Does your mother like it?
To define user stories, look through the lenses of customers and users.
Could haveWhat are optional user stories that can help us better serve our customers and users in the future?
F
Hypotheses
Keep in mind that each user story should be independent of any other user story.
Competitive benchmark
Non-functional requirements
What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”) considered in its offering to customers and users?
Fc
What non-functional requirements should be embedded in our product and/or service?
NF
...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill?
NFc
Ease of implementation
DNA
fitMust haveWhat is the minimal set of user storiescustomers and users expect to be implemented, in order to deliver the core value of the product and/or service?
Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done?
Core value
What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy?
Unfairadvantage
DNA
What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done?
Job(s) to get done
Pains
Gains
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to implement your lean offerings in short cycles.
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTSAnalogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers+ Users+ Brand & messages+ Channels+ Relationships+ Offerings+ Resources+ Processes+ Partners+ Profit formula+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Impo
rtan
ce
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even furtherbefore you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
ValidationExperiments
How can we test the identifiedhypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain?
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers.
Howcanweexcite
customerswithsimplemeans?
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
...andmanyothertools:+ BusinessEcosystem+ CustomerJourney+ KPIs+ TargetGroups+ Compe��veLandscape+ FinancialSanityCheck+ BusinessModelInspirator+ UIDesign
7weeksperitera�on
+ Agile process design to deal with uncertainties
+ Easy way to manage the “unmanageable”
+ Holistic thinking in business models, not just products
+ Strong emphasis on doing, not planning
+ Systematic learning based on evidence, not gut feeling
+ Prototyping to support learning and team development
+ Lean product design to generate cash quickly
+ Rigid task management with short cycles to get teams into flow
coretools
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved.
LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Functional requirements
Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en
Should haveWhat is the extended set of user stories that increases the value of the product and/or service to the next level?
What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)?A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least the following requirements:
+ Are your hypotheses covered?+ Can you charge your customers?+ Is your DNA embedded?+ Does your mother like it?
To define user stories, look through the lenses of customers and users.
Could haveWhat are optional user stories that can help us better serve our customers and users in the future?
F
Hypotheses
Keep in mind that each user story should be independent of any other user story.
Competitive benchmark
Non-functional requirements
What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”) considered in its offering to customers and users?
Fc
What non-functional requirements should be embedded in our product and/or service?
NF
...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill?
NFc
Ease of implementation
DNA
fitMust haveWhat is the minimal set of user storiescustomers and users expect to be implemented, in order to deliver the core value of the product and/or service?
Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done?
Core value
What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy?
Unfairadvantage
DNA
What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done?
Job(s) to get done
Pains
Gains
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to implement your lean offerings in short cycles.
© 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en
HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTSAnalogs
What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works?
What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone?
+ Customers+ Users+ Brand & messages+ Channels+ Relationships+ Offerings+ Resources+ Processes+ Partners+ Profit formula+ Business DNA
Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs:
Test focus
Impo
rtan
ce
Uncertainties
A+ A-
Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from
others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow
different to your business when you look under the hood.
What experiments are required to explore antilogs even furtherbefore you turn them into testable hypotheses?
Antilogs Exploration
ValidationExperiments
How can we test the identifiedhypotheses with the least effort?
Hypotheses
Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain?
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
Lean offeringspost-launch
Experimentpre-launch
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”
What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus?
“We believe...”
How to test hypotheses?1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses.2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way.3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling.
Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“We do...” “We are convinced, if...”incl.+ threshold+ timeframe
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
“...which will result in...”“We believe...”
Team DateIteration 1 2 3
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others.
Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles.
Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers.
Howcanweexcite
customerswithsimplemeans?
Whatisourbetonthefuture?
...andmanyothertools:+ BusinessEcosystem+ CustomerJourney+ KPIs+ TargetGroups+ Compe��veLandscape+ FinancialSanityCheck+ BusinessModelInspirator+ UIDesign
7weeksperitera�on
Downloadforfree:h�p://bit.ly/1TOdoG3
Thankyou.
Dr. Bernhard Doll Orange Hills GmbH Sendlinger Str. 25 80331 München, Germany
E. [email protected] T. +49-89-4520545-0 F. +49-89-4520545-69
Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh