coa, economic effects of successful area attacks on six japanese cities, 4 sept 1944, part3

8/4/2019 COA, Economic Effects of Successful Area Attacks on Six Japanese Cities, 4 Sept 1944, Part3

1/18

".........atbaPro4_u. LoU tn.

1'0-.1

. _ , .'IP)''_nM. . . . .. . . .

l .439.ooo m,a 1 .8 :J l ,OCIOl 61 ,OOO )6,000 1"'.00084,000 1 9 , 0 0 0 10'.000l!l9.CDO Y I . a o o 196 .0006 J 6 , O O O 107PlO 143.000? A O . a o o " , O G O 218.000a_?l9 ,0D0 6:Ia ,GOO , ; l i t , . r x


2/18

...............If\4n~ ~ "" ... 00r4 "" '" "" .... 11" \n ~i R t o " \ . . . . . "\0~0'Ir'4 "f'I"\ ""'..-4r-1~~

g r : o ' i ; i " : ~ " : ~ " : ~ ~ ...4r'40'\,._ "" ~ ro t r4 1 " 4 1 ' 4

~8 ~ _a............ ...... .::1t'If'\OO .....Jr\ .....G J I r ; ' f . . \ S J ~ . # ~~.I'~ r4i'-.........C'\ ......... N '" '" N . . .i \0""... ! " ' 4 Q'\. . .

M . . . . .~i ~ .. . .. ~.:t 'I : ; 1 1 \.=1 ' '" N...~ 1 1 '\ . .. ... . r4 0 '" '" ~ tf\ f""" . . .. . . . . .I I I I I . ~ - c : ~~ ~~2~\A t ... """ ,,,,, . . . . ""~. . .


3/18

at AIrIrI'd't ,. q -..oh ~ "POll . \be .\oct .poIl1\1oiD 111tM~. Ill. \M ~ -.cb .lJlM ll7 . -- --.J- tt1'f'eo'1i1U '- _ '\he. ..... ~.y or_"*" 1DtlUII~..u bt ~ Ill.loa8,.... t.at. would D O " JI, . . . .u-ll:;r .tfec\ f'I"oatl1llll .~ tw .....,_\ha.All .,...,., :l.a to .nl.....tIaN 1M ... 1D .tb...aalwU,.DfI: cb&pW.

r.w.." ta.. CIODtd.bl i \1oD .t.t.acUon rNO l l or tJ. .uc1u.._\be .,....aU loH. Of tba \oMl'loN ollO pWc~' 1Dt.t.oueot pr1ori.VJ.Dd1trJ .... tIMI "c,taok. on'1"olqo I IOC!OUJ1t tor ovv 4 pVo_to A :tta cbO ll D OotheJ- .~ c:1" oon\rlbute aot'e tbao2.l pereent.

il.Baa . U G1.2:'1 . , , !~ nlld1oa__ laN :lD.f'U8W ... t o . . . . OIl MObel\y u par...

nat.,e, of ht olV.... 1 poodueU.. It tb.reton :pI'O"ri.rlu l_Malle1__ Wat \ba .rr.eU..... ofllll __ 1DceD: Ib r r . , W l t w b1 01l ......",. \bI ooa,preW c e a \ r a l . . . . . !'bee m ' ~ : dl.ttc., I" 4uteto .... ooat'1pn.Uoa of ... tUM edc1' to wb1eh ~ 1111~an laMwSa .. ~ , .. , __ .. ___

.... u. ...... S a ftl. rrHtv to We ... ot , ... '*"sm ...~- ..... Mla MI....

- : r- o f-= = . .


4/18

. . . . . . ~ 1 1 1 1 flit prS.w1" .~ ia .... aU. to. _ ..... u..\ l'.n... e r l'M te .. tan ... , 'tIIG.r . I I I I I I M _ u, on the ......,. .1_at1MW'" J I M ' ou.wctu- __....... w.. \be wu nMould. lie 4........ *" t.Mee CaDol._I_ ._- the, UM oflB,~ ia..-ht...... \bat *MI -- .. ....._._ ot , opwaM,..]fUton, JmIQ1W11 iDuhtWmc - ..... 1 ....... -.1...

UlUIUl l 1 O l ' 1 t J C f I O J l U)SS. JRl U JB D

x . . . . . w"AlII3 1 5, ,70


5/18

C BA PT IJt. ,co.... 0' RlP""Ift liNDBRkJlCP1IPf

It. h not baa ;.0. sible to uk an lnde ell.dent iltve,.tl, t'.:>olthe co,,~ t. o the "ap&u'ltn,.econoa,y .of Z"epl'1ring &nc' -1 ' ;>hc th.Indu.stria... e lcb 'frOuld CIu ltd b -r tbese ..ttl.eks. & 1eD . '.tudy require 8. etenination both ottr.e 4D"tent of dItBt.ruct' .nto 1111J.~trlal bailding., e uJ. t., nd Itock&aM of the ClIp ct..ties of the eon truct1on,equl- nt. n 0_er u: ply! .. 1~ trilla.It1" po e1ble, no,.-eveJ'", to obte.1i1 a general. 1 Jof the pr-o _bl..III :tule of t.'Ue bw-den by l I J . ! : ; l d n 8.D.tAI l' 0/' broAd al'l.uapUon .ed on an aN.ly.h of ct.... e bAd repalr co~t. in Gerl!llDf fin Bri-

tlLin., It. wst be empbAGihed thet the kSSUllpt.iall 11.1"8 liubj. t to ala.r~e .1',iD of error and ..tbelt .1"ta.b11ab ,eneralarder 0 1 1 & : , -nit.ud S1&niflcanQ ,{tee c..t of .. pair p.nd !i!pl!e....t.

'lb. burdtNl 1apot6Ci an the laf*J1e::'. ectil'lOlD)"of N&1nr. Cood the~. in thes. attacb is significant fro. twopolllt~ -o t rln.

1.. bor and. \11..,. 1Jklutl'ul rOWC+. in tae ccr..tnaetiona4Il equ!~t. 1 .aduIIi.:I1 .N .. , be UYeI'tecI h'oa o~er- w on \0r-.p&iriD( .,. r.plp1ac dIiMp. "bebapt.r at.t..pte M--..uw ta. .. teat .r *--Gi...t_ S a __ ot .. .. ~l..abv ia toe. ~ attll""2. ..,.... & ~..... bps.- tI ...... _ crt..... sarflcrU .. ,.U ...,..,._laIII _..-


6/18

ad 1 rgely on Bl'ltlsh a.ll" "'01 r IL1r

.WlJjtloRa.1. Tlu.t th.UOWlt o.fequiPllet.e.nd atockallllr ploy. 1DdU'-

rer.nt 1nci.ustrbs 1. the sam. for Jttpan ft.d Br14.1o,2. That the ro.tclo 'of' _qui nt 10SI to building 1

s; in ~6.pan se faotories as hi, Br1tish J. 'l'hat alle ....uipDlftnt, aD atockso.r ftnbh.ed goode or 'tIO 1A

pllOen9 dutr,oyetl in priority iooustri s w t be replaced; al,o t7' . reellt.or the faotory bullditl-l destroyed in Guob iD.fU. trt~. _011\

, or Btoc.kSin non...priorlty iuau triel} r:or for d""le to l't-oekllin 1I'arehOl;lStl:S,taretl, or in tranliit. ... De.struction o r raw .. erial

ttl' raplae .... nt of such 8to.k. will bs ... de nthout 'Ut1oulty by

4. !ba~ the .... ao1tb . oo.t of replaeint: '.st.roy.d build!!'\. 'a,~:U.pMDt, ud .tooU 11 the in lapen I'S in Brlt.aiB. 1'hb a-_ o ..ua1.Jlg the .ttle1eaoy of labor 1Jl the two _~t.r1

til_ allooaUoa or til. rapd.r pdnphc __ t bardeIl ..,.. l ac f . ..


7/18

C oThou nd 'ItlUn .onth!

3,200

3 , 6 0 0

2,000S,900o-t..l ....... ti ..... : l i t

r cUe Uy aU the bur 'en of pl cin u1 entd tock.ill .Ll on priorIty lnduetrie. In the ca 0 bu1 ding da a,on the d, mOilt of the burden ..ill. tall on the oonst:ructioDiDdu.tr;y and OD producerl! 0 bulld1ng lMtter1als .Mob (except or e Id ch 1e41e) are cluifiad tiP non-priority. !helMre of the

w.10 i 1 hf've to be me by prilrity industry 1 theretore eat!" ted5,900,000 M.D .Ollth Sin. no all anc. bfS b n d. for de st ruc ti on of f etorl.s

inMil-priority indulltry, ot stoeles n wareh.ouee., and or ttOJ)...lndu'_trial bu1 lrqrll nr . i lnl!tallatlo_n~, the & UllPte oenAot be rttg


8/18

U. III Lnlu.t.rl & ; . r loc d d r in th. IJr"JuctiH prooe.. , thee nCllntrr ti of:t"ll lac.ent. de..od 1~ suehth t 111).. ...y OTr e t..d

o hlrden, w.1tb the re IU 1t tbr. tre l.rof dem g. an re tlr" t1~Dot pro~uct oQl d to l o n e delayed.

fbe' . :e~Y816 .ttI floc:. tent tive to JUf


9/18

Ib_ "pea aDd replunMlt 10 1 deled the eat1"'fI tori!lNCt produc'Uoll 1088 tb. tota.l I.e, . 1ntUcted by:.he tIocka ba. ru:rlai \.ly 16,m,OOO UtI aontb., ~u1Tc1.ilt to -.lao t t.o a"ntMIo r to"l I.pan :tnduatr1d output,. Ayproximt-tel,y 12,000,0,:)0 JqIItODt.b.II l!!'9 lost in. ,r!orl.tJ- 'industria., ettuiva1ent to .orf'!, thacntwo atblii.or t.otal .rmu.al priority ...utput .ItIl\Ut be 1'.... 1 ; 1 - r d that. -hil. the add!tlon of d.1r.et lo[lS811

aDd re...l~c.._ oolSh 8 1.ciUw.te, ~.pl&e .. _.t CQ,sta e" 1n ,generalcbll iI1gnl10611t.booaU~8 their inc1d"U1Ce aD f1Bd output,iB &tu-t.tl' .t.,.


10/18

sC HAP'l'M V I

Role ofPl'eeent Kef-OTt.fill raj crt tLt.ri. the lo",~ dt produetlt..n whlcb. can t> e . . .

peeted fr II nc:.nd1ar)' U811 ill t.UIIIODSb: ,ll1pa1l c:J.tl II theeoat to the la.-Me.a econolQ' of repairlo"-an replac1n.tb.

It b.. beg AnUlled in p. .par1ng t. it .re oFt tb"tth. d . a .a i l t.e\iadullltrtal installation. caD be: repd-e


11/18

t in

Ten

n re 1iae te vy burden en tb "

S p reentor t p80ity o r J of riOM,~y lndu.tl'1' th. burden w1ll beamaual capac! ty), b.l'l the _ina tool .D-

iT 1. ttIII , In u : I7. IIIevenh_rt.r (10ut.ry

t4 too~the total 108 intllo-ted

01" cbt lIonth or lOll'" r ~n J . r111& n r...

u1v lent to15 P' re nt of ann.. l iI.~.se OUtaput., .ita. A r e a . Attaus n 9maeJ.~.__II" o r th

fIT lDd1 III tb..t to tM of proQu.t IItro8ld be oeu!

illt6e ."-.iCe 011 I.aD.III '4 auaa. 1A , ....

ec..... "-''-::-1.,000If.......alu:ea i 1"''' : : % 1 " ' ' ' _


12/18

the IIllC creater .rr.ethcn ! . ot tbe at de. e r J..... S. _0-lJount.! .tOl! by two rector ...... the '"_t cong_ t..~ l1.rat hl,h intlaa-_bUltyor the cf'nt.ralsone.p .nd thQ extent to whicb iDdu.tr1a.lroduot;ion 18 OODcentl'llUdand :tad.trlal natj n doe . '10 .1ia11 an U" &ccow:at. tOl:' .0_'g...Pl"OportiC)!l ot .. ~utft.ot.ured .pro,uet8. ft. 2,G l'II&no1t.l .. a.ttack.eclb ;r the ,RAFin 19A3 contained on17 24 per,,;e,.t. olerq.n cduat17 aDd31 perce...t. of p.J:"od ty 1 au.try; Eor tll..lhI ".panes 01tV. thef.1guru are 35 p.r~nt and 4 B pero.nt. the lVO,OOO toni or 'botab.dropped or. the 2S Gc.l'IIIancities deat..t'oycd or ael'ioue1r 25pe cant ot their bou.1ng; .it. is &.881l11 d th t.u.ch eaalhr to .poof bo.bs dropped Oll . t l 1 f < .1x Japane. oi ti8" dll ,deatrQ7 70 perc:ent;ot tbe1l' J'loualDC.. IJl" G l"k'l'l: c1Un itb.stia.! t \bt ...

c i t - i n d e s t r u c t l o f t

'Given t". yalldlt.,. of' t.he kale II. .UIlptloD toUt it18 operat.1011-. .ell'1 t~.liol. to burn out t.Mcentral I a.. of thai. d ti I, the 0011-alWoDII are aubJeat to 1 1 1 0 prtndp&l errors. ODe .nor i,yo1...the .. t~\e ot drect. produtloD 1,th. Qt.ur, tbe .t.. t.or or ,..nperatioa.

!be HU_t.e ot 41net pn4M\10. lea.q...too UP __ lIM~ aa ~ .t.a,,-\ et tM __ , .r W..vt.l plaa ' I I I t . 1 . . . --.Hlie ~ ....... .., the .,....... ~. __ wUoc" U. s . a ~"'W1al JlaaU s .a \M .. dU...... \al1 w-un ... ,_ ........ " ..... III ., ~ tafterUie ...


13/18

If ua. t~.",..ubl no .11 one , t .rr c" a . the.tat!stJ cd conclu.:loltl U. cOnl!d J'Ilbl. 11 lit65 percent.otroductfo .. 19 fr .dlnot sa .u.tt,rlbut. 0UDid.llt.itl_planta, .J C 1 wars eeeredl td Yith 0 1,- 45 pc~ ent or t.oct.a1 prc.t;1uct It otlt.te .v ... ,. unldsllt:t.rlad. plan".lhould prov( DO.ore vulnerable~oaru lnclludiary tte:ck t.en lde.t.itled pla. t., thetotal. prOductl, It 1Q. tr vla: td would be red :q,oco bJ' ore,than l,4CO:tCC-O =an mon;he - a r duotion I) 11 in e-.J.l pa. tClaspen- ted. for by iUl additloaal ,COO_%!.Dl.onth8109:;. trc .baent6e1.Iil.il& r ae, ISIn.OuentcoalJ.lI woU:1d b COl"ru ofld1t.gly I uce4, ru1-

IJli b J ' iron th&n ,3,.51..0,CCOman u s. 'l'otsl 10.. (proQucti" 10..plus l'p:;.l ell replu:e .at crste) would thus b r-educ" frOiD.15percellt t.o 11 percent ot ..0.. r."r'e t.ott.l m.t .oa.l }-loduction.

the t.entathe ualJ8bpn .. ent.ed illChtptel'V lftd.1ca:I that;t .twat .e ot :recU{*f'etion tiae atq be too low. th burden of re-pair and :rf.i4118Qoent r.lle fir.. b.. v11 ,y on tt.. _ch a. t.ool, .leo..trleal f"Clu1~~, aDd ClOD8truot ...or. indutri... I'be obi_ 'toolLAlultrT 1(, part.ioulu app4ta1'. llk.lJt.o be aojted. \0 ...,...Afla.... J\ Ourd.IJn.~o"" on U Lauwt.r'7whi_ ltaaU baa.ut-tu.d ut.e.nai" ...... !bel. 1...... 't'1d.~ tbat ~. d_ .....oa'" 18 1~\rJ _, tar... 1\8 eapa.l "', _ ral reeeftJ7..,. CON'''ua1aq en .. .:he .m..c.tIta lS.IIi~ 1a tIda ...,..1M .... 1.... ....,. ..., Nt..... t.o ... wUl -.1.' .~ ..W U " ' .

.. .,,_ eI .....u.u.ca..-..........- _ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


14/18

1 uh bat.of such. lht. cud intfl'1\.1t.y. 'to C 1 " 1 1 a b.ttl .t te adainhtrntion. the..

vaUdity or tbfeet d.It\.b '. tala. a.rt Dot k Ilvll1cocael'.ltrated _. at 1 at, 1I.Id at,

to lnoi'tilual dtirs Ql clty",t' upe _- tl' ffrcte: trill"1;I C:Q~.ld rab17ttulpa. ted. Nn..-fiL 'tins,&et.1.ltl 8' .-ill prot: bl,)' to 01e .\lCe .. tal inprf." ' l < .tIti d mt.. to :l.Iiportant jnottlrl>ri 1 ina tnlle t101-411. the e.t1Q ted.~bs~ntub. a1' . 1 ; . . \ 1 ndU.cod by 40 t rc"tnq sine thel .,11 b t(;y rcs. 1.t1, s', t G " prob-l of re.lo"f\t o. yill be .or "ully l.t..r::.(!ledoft_r aD (' te _eO per i od., the ht-Ilsu;,g p, O g T'1 t1 lwill be tt.0111 tu1,dr. ,. t.o trauport.at~o:. 11111 b In. 1 1 ' 1 t.he. algrllga ,a 'Qc1a!db-orgDi.. tiondll b. lee.ronounoed.

L o . . . . , 1 . . J . be ruiuced by thr. po".!b1l1 t1' t uina Ujl .~pUe. of.. uriah ali! cOIl}oonent..illp1pe 11ne. dur1.J1a t.bf' p,rbd, or repair.. t.privrlt-,. 1nduatriN, 10... in .. et,1aM or one vlant proaucina tancl rd.. '1.ed t'rrx.uct iii1, t o be _de ~ ..,. lIorillDi an e)tra .l:Ut. in ~I) hIT plant.10 I'll. re~ rul. oan be; oltftl0pe4 < . to tate .. at . s . . t.rucU"n .. lall _,be reahe4 befo t 1 1 1 _.oa.lldll\1 au be e11.aJ.Dl.ted. It. 1 .a obY1oua .,the aore 1f!h-epr .. d U'.. tiM .."" loa \he b deN \U . pM.l~lU ' ..s.\;.

~ 4ittteu1\, et cd\IsllI'a,an. of oour.. , laeiii . wi* \he ooac_-.\toa or \lIe.~ ... INUu\1 Ilof un tqUare t.., of t.oq

. . . . . t . a . . . ~ ~ a tar cHi' .v.b on \M rap1 ... tila-w_l fit _ .. ~_ ..


15/18

lJ7, "1-iori O~Yt'll Le t.he), 4. G _ ...reed,

'!'he tf1o!. cy of an! couo,t.cr... epu;a .h1eb C{lo:-pllizlI..t!on do .pdtl' lar 11 00 thtime inwhieb tc t'dapt torms (1M t

a andtt.to t

.tn ,nt:nd, en a 1e to develto tkal w.1t .h be mas 6flve

t o r . or~ 1111lat. n .leb f~r~vec: blt.t..cklt which t.h.eAllh....Air ore 8

nn flol to make. lot ",r,ly "Ul Vl'Ui6l Dr anhntto f i ,nd chn1.-ua b co.. alo:r~~ficier ... with platte", but one a,p! tt.ern ,of' 1n...

ct . 1ary att&oks 'bOQII. .ool'iGua, t. t7 .j 11 U .bl. to ta.k .om . , . 1 ' . -ca.u.tio r-ymt"w'.s to r" ..uee 1 .; ejr tlfU.'!ts. ' I . n e z - u " ror le"con8tru.Ct SD extensive aytlt r : f1re-brf'.akn, leYAC t. n ~....orken,a 1I0ve f;ertl.i.p. . :1nllt .a .U. t.~ou.

Tt.orc is th turth r ia;rortaDt (lonl.ide-retioA tht;,t sull ...oal.1noer.dilt.l"Y..t.taetw .Ul haYe the .tr.at- or oreaUng tirebnad, andtt. t by uke ~h . . tarting of con!lagn. t . . : l Onll 1ocre" tini1j dUrie.tIl I..

O u t t A o t h e r haD4, ft . u t r ' c l . a t CO~C.4tt.t_on o C a t a c k . . , a o t -ually .ucead 1D overwbela1ua: the deltntl. forael tina ... h1n1.llc "-.lIlta beyOlld. ..ll the .. tillete. (lar-Iel7 _ OJl Eurof,*all npenenoe)pr.Hnted. in t18 .t.ud1.

the -u_ .tt.ote io acb1eviq ... ee ;'l'Obitbl7 caD0. .eCNrllt1 9 IIIl_Uai .\ta... oa .11 ta. o1U w1tk1a par\1aalAu' .....iNrhl.l ...... (,., ,..,., lei."M, L.... l). ,Ida .... _~~ ._ , . . . 1 ~ 1 1 _of ~ .. tin-


16/18

:\ 04. t . . n 1 :9 Ilr Oi.l , J.

tdl their Md1-bUJanci 111 W enox.ou.. !'lie ItO

.. ctory eat tl-for uch Lt okD O l l i e

.... .\e

I!I O(

_ ly81s mqe of tbattacks n othrr tar eot "78t.$INI.

Olle ~o.lt1'"conelu 'n her s, how "f", lrincendiary att oks on 1. all . & Qlt1ea ould aot be uadutck.n un,i3.

it1. Jo8db~e to oonduct thea illtoroe arid _pl.to t.he }lI'Oall sb 01tl ... thin a period. ;;t atn ,,~...

In &.dat. Uft, e~ teatat,lv( cOD c lU 8 1 oD 8 ftP

a . attaob ta


17/18

pr,..

total a . . . . 1 1 1 1 1 th .EI el..,.I lu Uk of IllUO

tic.nCD, p rtii)ula.rl l' themol't run.c. 0 CD the t ..ne. of the 81x it lee .11

burnt out, it.18 AliLely t.h tCurth r a"bIt T.ti&l. loal8a . U _.,-os ad Ufo. 1 r a at eke. 'lh 0 v I3ta~d et1 8 .111 ee17 r C""nli .. ctEd 1 IUCb. .,.,.. to Nk. thu TUlne: 1. t.ore- t1.a by t.hl;J aetbod.. lor 40u it .~ea likely 0 tbebs.eb ofpreeent otonmtioo ttftt total 10.. el c.n be llUob 1De .eeI b,- .1a-U r at cd ot.h r 01tifll. Tbe deere of 1Dduai.ri.l eoDMD\rat.ton1s .labere 80 lIue 1 thl t. turthEtl" 10 would, it. ar, becl1.,.rc~t. "'1 opeuh iuCUat.. T1 : i rollle .... 111 ~ .t~1"all 1t s.. h",yd to proc!.ce ttw Itt ... hortq.

d. .1r~. at aeke .1p.t. 11p1t1oa11\lr1.nena andp lou loneeaft t.K bJ pTech! n at.taw D aaitioa. I~Vl t'M t.s.Wlea Wi. Il~ v t _ 1JId t.I7. ile ..ui' pert~oa

t .& bl7 ta ,11 t.-_- , . . 0 1 " " ' ' '


18/18

., .ootal aJMIadII:lJll.\nt.1ft 4horpn1 .. t"n lell .OUU, bit ~"V U M t t.taoU a 1 ( 1 b t pro. 1 'bJ.. aD . .4 .1w act to tt:... j.O'D.

' ! 'h conoll3~ "nII ..~plJ' to ia. 'fJeJ d1_1'7 e\te.ck.. p.r rlJ..141hoWat oonau nlJ14entlal _",fOU. Ot-lou' typ ... or area ..t\.ack. no'ret ben. cou14.ft't'd. I'h:t ~. ill .Jeplll1u. cl.tie ... nu.. l' of CIO.Irp&o\:1odu.. l 1dbtriotll contain It bigh prloritl' t.:r et hich,.h1bno'\ 'U.lIIe 1. too. 111Minc.udt~ atbacl, llirht pro" to be , profItable

coa, economic effects of successful area attacks on six japanese cities, 4 sept 1944, part3

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