cni indicators issn 1983-621x • year 18 • number 5 • may...

The Industrial Indicators for May show a persistent downturn in manufacturing. Hours worked in production and real sales are up in May, but they grew at a much slower pace than usual for the month in 2016. As a result, the two indices fell by more than 3% as compared to April on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial sales posted the third consecutive decline and hours worked reached their lowest level since the series started

Industrial activity keeps falling

Industrial Indicators – May 2016 Seasonally adjusted change from April 2016

Ç REAL SALES Down by 3.8%

Ç HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 3.6%Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Ç CAPACITY UTILIZATIONDown by 0.1 percentage points

in 2003. In the first five months of 2016, sales and hours worked edged down by 12.2% and 10.1%, respectively, as compared to the corresponding period the year before.

The decline in hours worked and sales was accompanied by a fall in employment, average earnings, and total payroll. With May’s results, employment fell back to 2006 levels, while capacity utilization held steady at its lowest point in the series.

Ç EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.8%

Ç REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 1.7%

Ç REAL AVERAGE EARNINGSDown by 1.0%

CNI IndicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS

2

Industrial indicatorsISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016

Hours worked down again Hours worked in production experienced a 3.6% decline between April and May 2016 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was the sharpest decline in the index since July 2014. As a result of this drop, the index fell to an all-time low in the series started in January 2003.

In the first five months of 2016, hours worked dropped by 10.1% from the same period in 2015.

Hours worked in productionSeasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Industrial jobs fall to 2006 levelsEmployment has been trending downward for a long time. The 0.8% decline from April to May marked the 16th consecutive monthly fall in the indicator in seasonally adjusted terms. In May 2016, the index hit its lowest level since February 2006.

Comparing the first five months of 2016 with the corresponding period for 2015, industrial employment is down by 9.3%.

EmploymentSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

New decline in salesIndustrial sales dropped by 3.8% in May from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index has dropped for three months in a row. In the first five months of 2016, the indicator is down by 12.2% from the same period in 2015.

Real SalesSeasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

101

105

109

113

117

May/13 Nov/13 May/14 Nov/14 May/15 Nov/15 May/16

110

120

130

140



90

95

100

105

110

115

3


77

79

81

83

85


Decline in May offsets last month’s growth

Real average earnings

Real average earnings fell by 1.0% between April and May 2016, reversing last month’s 0.9% growth. As a result, the index is once again down when one compares the first five months of 2016 with the corresponding period last year: -1.0%.

Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization hits all-time low

Capacity utilizationSeasonally adjusted (average percentage)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

Capacity utilization stood at 77% in May, holding virtually steady from April (down by 0.1 percentage points) in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the lowest level recorded since the beginning of the historical series. The average capacity utilization rate for the first five months of 2016 is down by 2.6 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.

77.0%

Indústria Petrolífera

Indústria Química

Pequena Média Grande

Indústrias Diversas

Indústria da Construção Indústria de Energia

Total payroll down againAfter growing by 0.3% in April, total payroll in industry decreased by 1.7% (seasonally adjusted series) between April and May. This is the tenth monthly decline in the indicator in the last 12 months. Comparing the first five months of 2016 with the same period in 2015, total payroll is down by 10.2%.

Real total payrollSeasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)

Deflator: INPC-IBGE

115

120

125

130

135


112

114

116

118

120



1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE

PERCENTAGE CHANGE MAY 2016 / APR 2016 SEASONALLY A.DJUSTED

MAY 16 / MAY 15 JAN-MAY 16/ JAN-MAY 15

Real sales1 -3.8 -11.8 -12.2

Worked hours in production -3.6 -9.5 -10.1

Employment -0.8 -8.8 -9.3

Real total payroll2 -1.7 -9.6 -10.2

Real average earnings2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0

AVERAGE PERCENTAGE MAY16 APR16 MAY15

Capacity utilization 77.7 77.8 79.7

Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted 77.0 77.1 79.1

Resume of results - Industrial Indicators

Learn more

i For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais

* Explanatory note on the seasonal adjustment procedure The unusual behavior of the ‘real sales’ and ‘hours worked in production’ variables in May 2016 has not been properly adjusted for the seasonal adjustment model used. These indicators grew at a much lower rate than usual for the month of May. This required a change in the seasonal adjustment procedure applied in May 2016: the base taken was the average rate of change observed between April and May from 2003 to 2015.

INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | English version of “Indicadores Industriais - May 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on July 5th, 2016.

http://www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais

cni indicators issn 1983-621x • year 18 • number 5 • may...

Documents