cmas conference 2009 johannes bieser, institute for coastal research – gkss science center cmas...
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CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
CMAS Conference 2009
Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions with focus on Benzo[a]Pyrene
Team: Johannes Bieser, Armin Aulinger,
Volker Matthias, Markus Quante
GKSS Environmental Chemistry Department
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Outline
1. Introduction
2.Data Sources
3.Changes to the SMOKE model
4.Comparison with measurements
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Benzo(a)Pyrene chosen as a lead substance for PAHs
PAHs imperil humans and ecosystems
– highly bioaccumulative (food chain)
– persistent in various environmental compartments
– significant adverse effects already at low doses
• carcinogenic
• impair immune system
• impair reproduction
Why PAHs ?
B(a)P
Object of international reduction conventions and national legislationEU: 1 ng/m³ average value in ambient airGB: 0.25 ng/m³ average value in ambient air in 2010
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Main BaP Sources today
BaP results from incomplete combustion
Domestic Combustion
Wood
Industrial productionIndustrial combustion
~ 50%
Coal
Coke Ovens
Vehicle exhausts
Wild fires
Diesel
Aluminium Production
Waste Incinerators
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
BaP Sources over time
140 40 40 40 30 25 47 40 30 25 16.3440 50 55 50 70 50 55 50 45 30 24.51
410 480 490 430 420 220 300 270 250 180 122.55710 630 650 670 480 330 505 540 570 610 653.6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%BaP Source sectors
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20201970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20201970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20201970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
907 839.5 794.5 727 682 664.5 647 622 597907 895.6 888 876.6 869 860 851 834 817
1300 1240 1200 1200 1200 1140 1100 1040 1000 590 590
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400 BaP total emission estimates
1970 1973 1975 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1993 1995 2000 2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 2015 2018 20201970 1973 1975 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1993 1995 2000 2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 2015 2018 20201970 1973 1975 1978 1980 1983 1985 1988 1990 1993 1995 2000 2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 2015 2018 2020
[t/y]
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
2. Data Sources
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
SMOKE - emissions model
Biogenic emissions model
Mobile emissions model
2D-emissions processor
Plume in GridPoint source model
Top-Down
Bottom-Up
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Area Sources
Area Sources
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP)
- Annual emission totals for Europe and surrounding countries
- Species: CO, NOx, SOx, NMVOC, NH3, PM, (POPs, HMs)
- Official national reports as well as expert estimates
- 11 different Source Sectors (SNAP Sectors)
Official Inventories
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Global Population of the World
• Resolution: 1 x 1 km
• Data available for:199019952000200520102015
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
CORINE Land Cover database
100 x 100 m1990 & 2000
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
USGS Global Land cover
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
NUTS regions
• NUTS 0 Country
• NUTS 1 3 million to 7 million pers.
• NUTS 2 800000 to 3 million pers.
• NUTS 3 150000 to 800000 pers.
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
EUROSTAT
Official European statistics:
Publishes economic, business, social, energy, monetary, trade, agricultural, environmental statistics
- Temporal resolution: monthly
- Spatial resolution: county level (NUTS3)
- Employment rates for different industrial sectors
- Net working times
- Animal stocks
- Air traffic
- Fuel and Energy consumption
- …
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Point Sources
Point Sources
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
European Point Source Emission Register
Includes:
• 12000 point sources
• plant type
• location
• activity
• pollutants
• inventory years:
2001 & 2004
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Mobile Sources
Mobile Sources
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
openstreetmaps
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
openstreetmaps
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
TREMOVE database
Annual per country data:
- 20 European countries
- 6 different transport networks• motorway• non-urban road• urban road• rail• water• air
- Vehicle fleet size- Fleet composition- Fuel consumption- Total km driven- Annual total emissions
- 10 different on-road vehicle categories
• moped• motorcycle• car• van• bus• light duty truck• heavy duty 3.5 – 7.5t• heavy duty 7.5 – 16t• heavy duty 16 – 32t• heavy duty > 32t
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Biogenic Emissions
Biogenic Sources
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Biogenic Emissions
Forest cover database
• 120 different tree types
Land use data
• argicultural usage paterns • land type
Different LAI for winter and summer
Wild fires (not included)
Mineral Dust (not included) Resolution: 1 x 1 km
Inventory year: 2000
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
2. Changes to SMOKE
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Changes to the SMOKE model
Problems:
- Very large regions (up to 675000 m² and 80mio. inhabitants)
- Temperature dependend emissions (Residential Heating)
- Much pre-processing of spatial surrogates
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Changes to the SMOKE model
SMKINVEN SPCMAT GRDMAT
SMKMERGE TEMPORAL
Calculated for each day
Calculated once for each scenario
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Changes to the SMOKE model
SMKINVEN SPCMAT GRDMAT
SMKMERGE TEMPORAL
Calculated for each day
Calculated once for each scenario
MODMAT
NORMAT
MCIPmeteorologic
fields
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Changes to the SMOKE model
Advantages
- The additional routines can be turned on/off independent from the standard SMOKE modules
- Gives better spatial resolution for big regions
- Gives better temporal resolution
- Daily instead of monthly temporal profile- More realistic annual profile
- Can be used with any netCDF file via reference and profile ASCII files
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
3. Comparison with measurements
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Modelling Domain
- 54x54 km grid over Europe
- 18x18 km nest North and Baltic Sea
- 30 vertical layers up to 100 hPa
- 12 min time steps
- Scenario years: 2000 & 2001
- chemical mechanisms CB IV & CB V
- meteorology MM5 & CLM
- BC from ERA40
- emissions created with SMOKE: CO, NOx, SO
2, NH3, PM, NMVOC
BaP
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
• 21 Measurement Stations
• Daily average values
• EMEP Measurement Network
Sulfate concentrations
Scenario:
Grid: 54x54 kmMeteorology: MM5Mechanism: CB IVYears: 2000 & 2001
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Sulfate concentrations
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
• 8 Measurement Stations
• Daily average values
• EMEP Measurement Network
Ammonium concentrations
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Sulfate concentrations
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
• 8 Measurement Stations
• Daily average values
• EMEP Measurement Network
Nitrate concentrations
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Sulfate concentrations
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
• 48 Measurement Stations
• Hourly average values
• EMEP Measurement Network
Ozone & BaP concentrations
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Code conc. Sampling depos. sampling Country Station Network
ASP 1 week per month 1 wk./m. bulk Sweden Aspvreten EMEPKOS 1 day per week Czech Rep. Kosetice EMEPPAL 1 week per month Finland Pallas EMEPROE weekly Sweden Rörvik EMEP
BOR 1-2 days per week Germany Bornhöved GFEAZAR 1-2 days per week Germany Zarrentin GFEARAD every second day Germany Radebeul GFEA
WES monthly wet Germany Westerland GFEAZIN monthly wet Germany Zingst GFEA
EMEP: European Monitoring and Evaluation ProgramGFEA: German Federal Environmental Agencies
BaP Measurements
Stations measuring BaP
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
BaP Measurements
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
BaP Measurements
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
BaP Measurements
Annual average concentrations
Code observation model NMB correlation2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001
ASP 0.048 0.037 0.224 0.232 3.70 5.31 0.44 0.65KOS 0.169 0.223 0.156 0.132 -0.08 -0.41 0.64 0.47PAL 0.006 0.031 0.004 0.004 -0.34 -0.87 0.32 0.86ROE 0.078 0.105 0.064 0.064 -0.18 -0.40 0.72 0.66BOR 0.100 0.268 0.213 0.210 1.12 -0.22 0.49 0.45RAD 0.722 0.639 0.234 0.235 -0.68 -0.63 0.70 0.67ZAR 0.347 0.106 -0.70 0.34
CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center
Thank you for your attention!