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Closing the Gap between Science and Policy for Climate-Smart Agriculture
Christine LamannaClimate Change Decision Scientist, ICRAF Nairobi
Todd Rosenstock (ICRAF), Evan Girvetz (CIAT), Caitlin Corner-Dolloff (CIAT), Anthony Kimaro (ICRAF TZ), Mathew Mpanda (ICRAF TZ), Julian Ramirez
Villegas (CIAT), Leigh Winoweicki (ICRAF), Peter Läderach (CIAT), and more
The Challenge for CSA Programs
Many Practices Many Goals Many Contexts
MitigationAdaptation
Productivity
Of What?Most common crops?Most vulnerable crops?
For Whom?Most farmers?Most vulnerable farmers?
Pittelkow et al. 2014
Effect on Maize Yield (%)
Conservation Agriculture
Bayala et al. 2012
The Importance of Context
Not CSA
CSA
Many practices/programs/policies can be CSA somewhere
But none are likely CSA everywhere
Rosenstock & Lamanna
Context
How do we determine the best-bet practices to scale up?
• Bring together available evidence• Understand the context
• Extrapolate to novel contexts
Not CSA
CSA
Context
What is the Evidence for CSA in Southern Africa?
70 Practices x
20 Indicators
Abstract/title review
Full text review
526 Studies
Key word search
~ 6000 studies
Data extraction
~60,000 data points
Impact of CSA varies…
IntercroppingAgroforestry
TreeMmt.
CropMmt.
NutrientMmt.
SoilMmt.
WaterMmt.
PostharvestMmt.
DietMmt.
Effe
ct S
ize
Impact on Productivity
TanzaniaUganda
By Location:
Due to differences in climate, soil, farming system, etc.
Climate Change Impacts
Ramirez & Thornton 2015
Maize Beans
Change in production 2050 vs. 1971-2000 under RCP 8.5
Impact of CSA varies…By Outcome:
Resilience Indicators Only
ProductivityIndicators Only
Resilience & Productivity Equal
Prioritizing CSA in Tanzania by Outcome
Effe
ct S
ize
Like
liho
od
Yield
CSA for Maize in Tanzania
Lamanna et al. in prep
Legumes Maize
Rice Tubers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
Yield (tons/ha)
Den
sity
Practice
Agroforestry
Crop Residue
Crop Rotation
Green Manure
Improved Varieties
Inorganic Fertilizer
Intercropping
Organic Fertilizer
Reduced Tillage
Rice management
Water Harvesting
Zai Pits
Legumes Maize
Rice Tubers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
Yield (tons/ha)
Den
sity
Practice
Agroforestry
Crop Residue
Crop Rotation
Green Manure
Improved Varieties
Inorganic Fertilizer
Intercropping
Organic Fertilizer
Reduced Tillage
Rice management
Water Harvesting
Zai Pits
Legumes Maize
Rice Tubers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
Yield (tons/ha)
Den
sity
Practice
Agroforestry
Crop Residue
Crop Rotation
Green Manure
Improved Varieties
Inorganic Fertilizer
Intercropping
Organic Fertilizer
Reduced Tillage
Rice management
Water Harvesting
Zai Pits
increasedecrease
Like
liho
od
Yield
uncertain
certain
Yield (t/ha)
afrot
gm
ifof
iv
icrt
zai
resafp
mu
wh
af
ifof
rtres
iv
af
resif
sri
wh
if
of
rot
iv
0
100
200
40 60 80 100 120
Chance of Success
Rew
ard
(%
yie
ld in
cre
ase)
Crop
Beans
Maize
Rice
Tubers
Risk vs. Reward of CSA
Lamanna et al. in prep
High Reward, Low Risk
Low Reward, Low Risk
High Reward, High Risk
Low Reward, High Risk
Impact vs. Scale for CSA
Lamanna et al. in prep
Are there any “magic bullets”?
Closing the Gap
What is the CONTEXT?What are the PRIORITIES?What are the OPTIONS?
%HHs w/ Livestock
Livestock Density
Highland Focus
Cereal Focus
Lowland Focus
Terrain
Soil Fertilit
y
%HHs w/ Coffee
%HHs w/ Maize
%HHs w/ Paddy
Slope
SOC
Farming System
Compatibility
Soil Resources
Cropping System
Distance to
Market
Precipitation
Depth to
Groundwater
Surface Water
Ground
Water
Water Resources
Physical Capital
Natural Capital
Farm & Physical
Biophysical Factors
% HH w/ Tenure
% HH w/ Extension
% popilliterate
Land Tenure
Farmer Support
Literacy Rates
LabourAvail.
Complexity
Start up costs
Poverty
Access to
Credit
Social Capital
HumanCapital
Financial Capital
Intervention Capital
Social Factors
Intervention & Social
Human & Financial
N/A
N/A
Suitability
% pop in lowest
quartile
A BBN for Water Use Technologies
A BBN for Water Use Technologies
Representation of CSA option suitability that accounts for local context and knowledge, stakeholder preferences, and uncertainty
Lamanna et al. in prep
The Challenge for CSA Programs
Many Practices Many Goals Many Contexts
MitigationAdaptation
Productivity
Of What?Most common crops?Most vulnerable crops?
For Whom?Most farmers?Most vulnerable farmers?
Rosenstock & Lamanna
Not CSA
CSA
Context
There are likely no magic bullets!
Prioritization is key to achieving CSA goals:• What outcomes are most important?
• For whom? And where?• Consider uncertainties
• Bring together local stakeholders + relevant data
Priorities Matter to CSA Programs
Equal Adaptation & Productivity Adaptation Only
Productivity Only Maize Yield Only
Maize Yield considering
adoption rates
Green Manure Green Manure Green Manure Organic Fertilizer Inorganic Fertilizer
Mulching Organic Fertilizer Water Harvesting Water Harvesting Intercropping
Organic Fertilizer Mulching Mulching Inorganic Fertilizer Water Harvesting
Water Harvesting Reduced Tillage Agroforestry Green Manure Organic Fertilizer
Pruning Crop Residue Organic Fertilizer Zai Pits Zai Pits
Inorganic Fertilizer Pruning Inorganic Fertilizer Intercropping Mulching
Agroforestry Inorganic Fertilizer Pruning Mulching Reduced Tillage
Crop Residue Intercropping Intercropping Reduced Tillage Crop Residue
Reduced Tillage Agroforestry Crop Residue Improved Variety Green Manure
Intercropping Water Harvesting Reduced Tillage Crop Residue Crop Rotation
Agroforestry Improved Variety
Crop Rotation Agroforestry
CSA Prioritization Framework Filters for selecting CSA investment portfolios
*Analysis of context variables
Long list of CSA practices
*Ex-ante assessmentbased on CSA indicators
*Stakeholder workshop
Ranked short list of priorities
*Economic analysis – assess costs and benefits
Ranked short list based on CBA
*Integrated analysis of opportunities & constraints
* Stakeholder workshop
CSA investment portfolios
CIAT/CCAFS team: Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Andy Jarvis, Miguel Lizarazo, Andreea Nowak, Nadine
Andrieu, Fanny Howland, Osana Bonilla, Deissy Martinez
En
gag
em
en
tC
ap
acity
develo
pm
en
t
CSA
Investment
Portfolios
Targeting & PrioritizingPractices, Programs and Policies
Trade-offs & Value for Money
Vulnerability & Impacts + Readiness
Stocktaking
for CSA
Action
Situation AnalysisRisks and Enabling Conditions
Programing DesignGuidelines & Implementation
Taking CSA
to Scale Knowledge into Action
Evidence Based Results Framework
Learning
from
Experience
Monitoring and Evaluation Across Scales and Systems
CSA-Plan
Todd Rosenstock (ICRAF), Christine Lamanna (ICRAF), Evan
Girvetz (CIAT), Caitlin Corner-Dolloff (CIAT) and colleagues
For more information contact:
Todd RosenstockEnvironmental Scientist
World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)Nairobi, Kenya
Christine LamannaClimate Change Scientist
World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)Nairobi, Kenya