clio infra
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CLIO INFRA. Jan Luiten van Zanden Utrecht University/Groningen/Stellenbosch. Economic history and the ‘beyond GDP’ debate. Our view of the long-term development of the world economy is largely based on GDP estimates (Maddison synthesis) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CLIO INFRA
Jan Luiten van Zanden
Utrecht University/Groningen/Stellenbosch
Economic history and the ‘beyond GDP’ debate
• Our view of the long-term development of the world economy is largely based on GDP estimates (Maddison synthesis)
• National accounts has been very fruitful approach for understanding and interpreting development world economy since 1800
Economic history and the ‘beyond GDP’ debate
• But limitations of GDP are also well known (inequality, sustainability)
• Can economic history offer historical dimension to well-being debate?
• Is picture of development of world economy really different if we move to more inclusive measures of well-being?
Structure presentation
• Introduction: Clio Infra• Method: how to ‘create’ large global datasets
covering the world economy 1500-2010• It is possible to reconstruct long term
development of various dimensions of well-being?
• Does it really matter? Does it produce a different picture of the rise and development of global inequality?
Clio Infra: large scale research infrastructure project
• Aim: to create the research infrastructure for the analysis of global inequality
• Better estimates of the ‘usual’ indicators (such as GDP)
• Alternative indicators: real wages, life expectancy, biological standard of living, ‘agency’ (Sen)
• Datasets about proximate and ultimate causes of growth and stagnation: human capital, institutions, family systems, culture and religion, knowledge production (books?), geography etc.
• How does growth affect sustainability? • For the period 1500-2010, for the whole world
Approach CLIO INFRA
• Set of specialized hubs that produce global datasets
• Central website at International Institute for Social History (IISH)
• Cooperation with Gapminder and Statplanet
• And with Data Archive DANS for datastorage
CLIO INFRA
• Total budget 4.2 M€ • For 2011-2014• Stages: 2011: design central hub, and
requirements of data uploaded from datahubs
• December 2012: first version on-line available: first sets of data from hubs
• 2012/2013: work on datasets and on refinements central hub
• 2014: ‘final’ version of all websites
CLIO INFRA consists of
Thematic datahubs: • National Accounts: the Maddison project
(Groningen)• Biological Standard of Living and Age heaping
(Tuebingen) • Human Capital Formation (Debrecen/Utrecht)• Demography, Gender, Labour Status (IISH)• Prices and Wages (IISH)• Institutions & Agency (UU)• Sustainability (UU)
Example: the Maddison project
• Collaboratory: team of scholars working on same topic, for example estimating GDP on global scale (Maddison network)
• How to continue with this work in the post-Maddison period?
• Two-layered organization: working group of four ‘disciples’ (Bart van Ark, Leandro Prados, Debin Ma, Jan Luiten van Zanden)
• Broader advisory board with all specialists (25) covering regions and periods
• Website: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/index.htm
Example: Maddison project
• Conference in November 2010• How to proceed: we take Maddison dataset as
starting point• What are weak and strong points (assessment: 4
categories)?• New work to be included (for example England
and Holland before 1800)• Working group collects new estimates and
produces working paper (Bolt and Van Zanden 2012; Van Ark and De Jong 2012)
• Session Stellenbosch 2012 to discuss new results – then (maybe) launched on internet
Example: Maddison project
• Core problem of collab: how to collect and integrate into one consistent set of estimates dispersed expertise of dozens (economic) historians
• Standardization; peer review; data availability• Via ‘layered’ teamwork: Maddison project,
labour status project IISH
Measuring the Great Divergence
GDP per capita from about 1300: England, Netherlands, Indonesia
GDP per capita van Nederland/Holland,Indonesië/Java and UK/Engeland, 1270-2000 (dollars van 1990)
100
1000
10000
100000
1270 1320 1370 1420 1470 1520 1570 1620 1670 1720 1770 1820 1870 1920 1970
Indonesië Nederland Java Holland Engeland/UK
Other dimensions of well-being
• Demography: Life Expectancy
• Biological standard of living
• Sustainability
• Institutions and Gender
• Human Capital
• Inequality
Other hubs: Biological standard of living: heights in world economy (men, birth cohorts, in cm) (Baten/Tuebingen)
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
East Asia East. Eur./Cntr. Asia Latin America/Car.
Mid. East/N. Afr. North America/Au/Nz South Asia
Southeast Asia Subsaharan Africa Western Eur.
Human Capital Hub: educational attainment
Human Capital Hub: educational attainment (England 1300-1900)
Wages and prices hub: a.o. real wage developments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
17
38
17
47
17
56
17
65
17
74
17
83
17
92
18
01
18
10
18
19
18
28
18
37
18
46
18
55
18
64
18
73
18
82
18
91
19
00
19
09
19
18
London
Amsterdam
Milan
Leipzig
Beijing
Suzhou/Shanghai
Real wages in Latin America, 1524-1820
Demography hub: a.o. life expectancy
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Finland UK Cuba China India South Africa
Sustainability hub (with HYDE, PBL): a.o. biodiversity and
emissions
Institutions hub: quality of political institutions (PolityIV)
Institutions hub: quality of political institutions before 1800
Days in session per year of English/British Parliaments, 1295-1800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1295
1315
1335
1355
1375
1395
1415
1435
1455
1475
1495
1515
1535
1555
1575
1595
1615
1635
1655
1675
1695
1715
1735
1755
1775
1795
Institutions hub: quality of political institutions before 1800
Activity Index, three regions of Europe, 12th-18th century
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
North-west Central South
Various dimensions of inequalityGlobal Income Inequality 1820-2000
GDP per capita
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
10 100 1000 10000 100000
1990 2000 1980
1970 1960 1950
1929 1910 1890
1870 1850 1820
The aim: various dimensions of inequalityInstitutional inequality(polityIV)
New Results: is it possible to go beyond GDP as measure of welfare?
• HDI index – can we extend this into pre 1850 period (for large parts of world economy)?
• Can we broaden the concept of ‘well-being’ and include other dimensions as well
• Stiglitz, Sen & Fitoussi (Sarkozy-report)• Measuring well-being by OECD (Better
Life Initiative)
Problems and limitations
• Conceptual issues; what exactly are we measuring?
• No ‘subjective’ indices, no interviews, difficult to use very specific indicators
• But expert opinion can sometimes replace this (polityIV dataset)
• Use of smart proxies
• But: crude estimates, big gaps in sources
From GDP to HDI
• Per capita GDP/GNI (PPP)
• Life expectancy at birth
• Literacy/Average years of education
• Changes in measures, goalpost, and aggregation
• This all can and is measured for large parts of world economy 1500-present
Two additions considered here
• Political rights & civil liberties– Currently not done, but elephant in room– HDR 1991, 1992, 2000– Dasgupta & Weale, 1992
• Gender equity– Women frequently lack freedom– Done for present: Gender Development Index (GDI)
and Gender Inequality Index (GII– Sen, World (Bank) Development Report 2012; Duflo:
smart economics, good outcome in its own right
Gender Equity
• GDI has high data requirements:– life exp. by gender– educational attainment by gender– income by gender
• To make life easier, UNDP replaced it with GII– maternal mortality– adolescent fertility– parliamentary seats by gender– educational attainment by gender– labour force participation by gender
Solution? Carmichael et al.:“Girl power”
(0.262,0.401](0.401,0.54](0.54,0.679](0.679,0.818](0.818,0.957]
GDI
Solution? Carmichael et al.:“Girl power”
(0.208,0.354](0.354,0.499](0.499,0.645](0.645,0.79](0.79,0.936]
GII (rescaled)
Solution? Carmichael et al.:“Girl power”
(17.2,20.4](20.4,23.6](23.6,26.8](26.8,30](30,33.2]
SMAM
Solution? Carmichael et al.:“Girl power”
20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2005 GII v. SMAM
ismam
gii
20 25 30
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2000 GDI v. SMAM
ismam
gd
i
Advantage: really long-term
1600 1800 2000
1520
2530
Netherlands
year
smam
1600 1800 200015
2025
30
Italy
year
smam
1650 1750 1850 1950
1520
2530
Germany
year
smam
1600 1800 2000
1520
2530
China
year
smam
1850 1900 1950 2000
1520
2530
India
year
smam
1850 1900 1950 2000
1520
2530
Bangladesh
year
smam
1800 1900 2000
1520
2530
Sri Lanka
year
smam
1700 1800 1900 2000
1520
2530
Japan
year
smam
1850 1900 1950 2000
1520
2530
Pakistan
year
smam
1750 1850 1950
1520
2530
Mexico
year
smam
1920 1960 2000
1520
2530
Canada
year
smam
1800 1900 2000
1520
2530
United States
year
smam
Political & civil rights
• UNDP tried in 1991-2
• Lots of criticism– Undemocratic countries did not like it– Humana/The economist’s index insufficient, too
subjective, biased
Political & civil rightsName Authors Period covered Measures
Polity IV Marshall & Jaggers, 2005 1800–2004 Open, competitive political
participation
Vanhanen Vanhanen, 2000 1810–1998 Voter turnout, political
competition
Freedom in the World Freedom House, 2011 1972– Political rights, civil rights
Political Terror Scale Gibney et al., 2010 1976– State terror against subjects, focus
on physical integrity
Poe & Tate, 1999 1976–1993 Government repression of human
rights to personal integrity
CIRI Cingranelli & Richards, 2010 1981– Physical integrity, civil rights and
liberties, workers’ rights,
women’s rights.
World Handbook of Political and
Social Indicators
Taylor & Jodice, 1983 1973–1979 Political rights, civil rights
Alvarez et al., 1996 1950-1990
Political regime change Gasiorowski, 1996 Independence(1747)-1992 Democracy/authoritarian
Bollen 1972-1988 Composite
CAM Coppedge et al., 2008 Contestation + inclusiveness
Trends in political freedom: Polity and Vanhanen compared
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Eastern Asia
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Latin America
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
MENA
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Northern America
year
i.pol
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Oceania
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Southern Asia
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year
i.pol
1850 1900 1950 20000.0
0.4
0.8
W. Europe
year
i.pol
Polity IVVanhanen
Goalposts for new variables
• Translate to 0-1 scale
• Polity IV: minimum and maximum exists throughout, e.g. present-day Saudi-Arabia, Australia
• SMAM: 12.5 (India, 1925) and 33.66 (Saint Lucia, 1991)
Component indices, income
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Latin America
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
MENA
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Oceania
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
i.inc
1880 1920 1960 20000.
00.
40.
8
Northern America
year.round
i.inc
Component indices, health
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Latin America
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
MENA
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Oceania
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
i.hlt
1880 1920 1960 20000.
00.
40.
8
Northern America
year.round
i.hlt
Component indices, education
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Latin America
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
MENA
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Oceania
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
i.edu
1880 1920 1960 20000.
00.
40.
8
Northern America
year.round
i.edu
Component indices, political
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 Southern Asia
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
W. Europe
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Latin America
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
MENA
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Oceania
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Eastern Asia
year.round
i.pol
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Northern America
year.round
i.pol
Polity IVVanhanen
Component indices, gender eq.
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Latin America
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
MENA
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Oceania
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
i.sm
am
1880 1920 1960 20000.
00.
40.
8
Northern America
year.round
i.sm
am
Resulting HDI
Resulting HDI
Resulting HDI
Resulting HDI
Resulting HDI
HDI over time
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Eastern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Latin America
year.roundne
w.h
di
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
MENA
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Northern America
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Oceania
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Southern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
W. Europe
year.round
new
.hdi
regional hdiw orld mean
Adding variables
• Simple addition to HDI aggregation, so:𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖 = ඥ𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑖 ⋅ 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑖 ⋅ 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖3 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖 = ඥ𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑖 ⋅ 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑖 ⋅ 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖 ⋅ 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑖 ⋅ 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖5
Adding political freedoms
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Eastern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Latin America
year.roundne
w.h
di
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
MENA
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Northern America
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Oceania
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Southern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
W. Europe
year.round
new
.hdi
HDI+ PolityHDI + VanhanenHDI
Adding gender equity
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Latin America
year.roundne
w.h
di
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
MENA
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Northern America
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Oceania
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
new
.hdi
HDI+GHDI
Adding both
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Latin America
year.roundne
w.h
di
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
MENA
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Northern America
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Oceania
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
new
.hdi
HDI+P+GHDI
Adding both
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
E. Europe + form. SU
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Eastern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Latin America
year.roundne
w.h
di
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
MENA
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Northern America
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Oceania
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Southern Asia
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
year.round
new
.hdi
1880 1920 1960 2000
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
W. Europe
year.round
new
.hdi
HDI+PHDI+P+GHDI
Conclusions
• Gender equity makes surprisingly little difference
• Political freedoms matter greatly in long term quality of life, esp. MENA, E. Asia, E. Europe + (former) SU
• No more steady improvement, but strong divergence followed by convergence
• Caveats: data, goalposts, aggregations rules
Integration 5 indices
• Same weights?• Weights derived from principal components
analysis?• Empirical studies ‘substitution’ between sub-
indices?• Website where each visitor can decide his/her own
weights (OECD Better Life)• Theoretical inspiration: Sen (‘freedom’; agency)
In the footsteps of Angus Maddison
• It is possible to measure long term economic, social and political changes in the world economy 1500-2010 (with, obviously, large gaps and big margins of error)
• Standardization, peer review, data exchange are keys – within collabs
• Clio Infra also tries to address Well Being debate – multidimensional measures of ‘development’
Will this result in paradigm shift like in the 1930s-1950s?
• 1930s-1950s: coming together of new theories (Keynes), statistical techniques (national accounting) and demand for policy advice (understanding 1930s, fostering growth)
• Such a combination is arguably not (yet) present at the moment