climatic changes of gliding conditions · climatic changes of gliding conditions z. aslan istanbul...

CLIMATIC CHANGES OF GLIDING CONDITIONS

Z. ASLAN

Istanbul Commerce University, Faculty of Engineering and Design,Department of Computer Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey,

[email protected]

A. TOKGOZLU

Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Isparta, Turkey, [email protected]

ABSTRACTThermal potential and climatic effects are examined in Central Anatolia by using long-

term meteorological data. This paper presents some analyses of monthly, seasonal and annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, wind speed, wet and dry static energy and aridity index values for the selected stations in terrestrial part of Turkey. Climatological data of monthly mean and annual total rainfall rate, mean wind speed, air temperature and evaporation observed between 1901-2001 were considered. Temporal and spatial variations of normalized values were analysed. Climatologicalchanging effects on rainfall, air temperature, wind speed, drought risk, aridity indices, simple departure index and precipitation concentration index near vicinity of gliding school were calculated. Rainfall rate, wind speed, aridity, desertification and drought risk indices, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), map of dryness risk class and their effects on thermal potential for gliding have been analysed. Climatological changing effects on meteorological parameters were considered by comparing the normal values of parameters recorded between 1930 and 1960 with the observations between 1901 and 2001. Remotely sensed satellite data were used to select experimental sites for more detailed analyses. Desertification Risk Index (DRI) and other normalised data were compared. This paper includes some results of the research project supported by the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Centre(TÜBİTAK).Keywords: Thermal Potential, Climatological Changing, Aridity and Drought Risk Indexes, Desertification Risk Index, NOAA-AVHRR.

INTRODUCTION

MATERIAL AND METHODSDataMethodology

ANALYSISAnalysis of Air TemperatureAnalysis of PrecipitationAnalysis of AridityAnlysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation IndexTime Series Analysis of Some Climatic Parameters effect on Gliding in Central Anatolia

CONCLUSION

AcknowledgementREFERENCES

INTRODUCTION

Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st century are based on concentration of green house gasses, (Giorgi and Francisco, 2000). The role of regional climate changing on erosivity and aridity factors were investigated by using some measuring and modelling techniques, Feoli et al., (2000), Turkes (1999).

In scientific researchs that associate the atmospheric water regulation and environment, and especially archieving and interpreting the rainfall statistics, meteorological data is very important. Many large and meso-scale climate change simulations for the 21st centry are based on concentration of greenhosuse gasses. Ground measuring systems and remote sensing techniques are essential for data archiving.

Kogan, Forsyth and Carey, studied global drought which is the most damaging environmental phenomenon. By using Advanced Very High ResolutionRadiometer (AVHRR based Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) they try to detect water and temperature related vegetation stress occurring during drought. They showed very strong correlation between these indices and yield.

Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum air temperature, and microclimate has been considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and modelling. Vegetation cover needs to be included as a factor in surface temperature forecasting, numerical modelling, and climate change assessments.

The main aim of this study is:

i)to analyse climatological changing effects on thermal conditions (air temperature, surface temperature, rainfall rate, relative humidity, cloud base temperature, equivalent potential temperature, moist static energy) for gliding activities,

ii)) to define aridity risk,

iii) to define temporal and spatial variation of vegetation cover,

iv)to define transition regions of precipitation concentration index,

v) to define variation of simple climatic deviation index .

For this purposes, some ground measurements of meteorological variables and remote sensing data have been analysed in time and space domains, Feoli (2000), Turkeş et all (2002), Reinhardt, (1985), Lindemann (1988), Wallington (1986).

Study Area and Data

Study area covers 49 different stations all over Turkey between 36°N and 420 N parallels. Total plain area is 779.452 km2. Monthly total rainfall rate and average air temperature values were considered from 1901 to 2001, New et al, (1999, 2000). Monthly mean wind speed value between 1999 and 2001 were also analysed. Together with surface measurements, remote sensing data (NOAA AVHRR, VIS and NIR) for different periods (1986-87, 1994-2002) have been considered.

Study Area Study Area

Station Number and Height of Stations at Different Geographical Regions in Turkey

STATION STATION LATITUDE LONGTITUDE LATITUDE LONGTITUDE HEIGHT

No (geographic coordinates) (grid coordinates) Mean Sea Level (meter)

34 Ankara39.95 32.88

40.00 33.00 891

35 Eskişehir39.82 30.52

40.00 30.50 787

36 Konya37.87 32.50

38.00 32.50 1031

37 Kayseri38.72 35.48

38.50 35.50 1093

As remote sensing satellite data, LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and NOAA/AVHRR data are used for monitoring land degradation processes. The characteristics of the data used are given as below.

Satellite Date Spatial Resolution

Spectral Resolution

Temporal Resolution

LANDSAT TM 6 December 87 26 April 96

30 m (Optical)120 m (Thermal)

0.45-2.35(Optical)10.4-12.5(Thermal)

18 days

NOAA/VHRR 96 / 99 / 02Monthly Sampling

1 km 0.58-1.10(Optical)3.55-12.4(Thermal)

Daily twice

Methodology

Precipitation Concentration Index

The following statistical indices define, annual precipitation deviations, (Gabriels, 1993, Michiels ve Gabriels, 1996).

12m = Σ pi / n

i = 1

where, m; annual average precipitation, pi; monthly total precipitation , n; number of months in a year (12). Standard deviation of monthly total precipitation:

12s = Σ (pi � m )2 / n

i = 1

To define time variation of monthly precipitation data, Precipitation Concentration Index, (PCI) values are calculated by following equation:

12 12 12PCI = 100 . ∑ pi

2 / P2 = 100 . Σ pi2 / (Σ P)2

i =1 i =1 i=1

Where: pi; monthly total precipitation, P; annual total precipitation, n; number of months in a year, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996).

Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) Classes, (Michiels and Gabriels, 1996)

PCI Seasonal Rainfall Distribution

< 10 Uniform

11 � 15 Moderate Seasonal

16 � 20 Seasonal

21 � 50 Strong Seasonal

> 50 Isolated

In seasonal Concentration Index, mean monthly precipitation values were estimated by usingmonthly data.

Deviation of annual precipitation values (CV)) is given as below, Michels and Gabriels, (1996).

CV = 100 (S / M )

Where,S; standard deviation of annual total precipitation.

NM = ∑ P / N

i=1

where;N; data observation period (year)

Simple Climate Departure Index (SCDI) is given by the following equation:

SCDI = (P � M ) / S

Mean annual total precipitation values have been normalized by using this equation.

Soil Moisture Prediction

Soil moisture over the western Turkey (in Istanbul) basin has been evaluated for long term data by using De Martonne�s Index (I), (Piervitali, Conte and Colacino, 1999). The index is given by the following equation:

I = P / (T + 10)

WhereP: total annual precipitation (mm),T: Mean annual temperature (°C).

De Martonne�s and Soil Dryness Class

Soil Class D.M. Index

Desert, semi desert I ≤ 10

Dry, (continuous irrigation is necessary) 10 < I ≤ 15

Semi Humid (irrigation is necessary) 15 < I ≤ 20

Humid, (time adjusted irrigation is necessary) 20 < I ≤ 30

Very Humid, (seasonal irrigation is necessary) 30 < I

Aridity Index

Aridity index (AI) is given by the following equation Türkeş (1999) Aslan and Tokgözlü (2000a,b),

AI=P/PE

Where

P= Annual total precipitation (mm)

PE= Potential evaporation (mm)

Type of Area AI

Arid areas 0.05≤AI<0.20

Semi-arid areas 0.20≤AI<0.50

Drysub-humid areas 0.50≤AI<0.65

Normalized Vegetation Index

NDVI is the difference of near infrared (NIR, Channel 2) and visible (VIS, channel 1). Reflectance values normalized over the sum of channels 1 and 2.

NDVI = (NIR � VIS) / (NIR + VIS) = (CH2-CH1) / (CH2+CH1)

Class numbers change between 1 and 6, corresponding NDVI values change between 0 and >0.45. Surface characteristics are classified as open sea surface, urban, semi arid-desert, vet soil, forest, farmland and rainforests.

NDVI Classes and Surface Characteristics

Class No

NDVI Surface Characteristics

1 0.01 - 0.05 Urban area, semi - desert

2 0.05 - 0.15 Urbanized area, dry soil, clay surfaces

3 0.15 - 0.25 Humid soil, transition region, bare soil, less vegetation

4 0.25 - 0.35 Forest, open grass

5 0.35 - 0.45 Forest, farm - lands

6 >0.45 Rain forests, high mountainous area, heavy vegetation

ANALYSIS OF ANALYSIS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL

PARAMETERSPARAMETERS

Control Chart: VAR00002

Sigma level: 3

9791

8579

7367

6155

4943

3731

2519

137

1

777

663

549

435

321

VAR00002

UCL = 753,8363

Average = 548,9663

LCL = 344,0964

Control chart of Rainfall rate Values in Eskisehir

Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate kk(mm) Values (Eskişehir, 1901-2001, Moving Average for Lag=7).

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

800

700

600

500

400

300

VAR00002

MA(VAR00002,7,7)

Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

Eskiþehir

Ankara

Kayseri

Konya

Time Variation of Annual Total Rainfall Rate Deviations (mm) from Median Values, (Eskişehir, 1901-2001).

ESKİŞEHİR

-250-200-150-100-50

050

100150200

1901

1907

1913

1919

1925

1931

1937

1943

1949

1955

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

YEAR

RA

INFA

LL D

EVIA

TIO

NS

Monthly Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Eskişehir

ESKİŞEHİR (1901-2001)

01020304050607080

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

Rai

nfal

l Rat

e (m

m)

Spatial Variation of Rainfall Rate Values in Turkey, (1901-2001)

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BANDIRMABILECIK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG

ERZINCANERZURUMESKISEHIR

GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBUL

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELI

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RIZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

URFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK

26 29 32 35 38 41 44

36

39

42

300 450 600 750 N0 100 200 300 KM

Total Annual Rainfall Rate, (1901-1930)Annual Rainfall Rate (1931-1960)

Annual Rainfall Rate (1961-1990) Annual Rainfall Rate (19961-1998)

Control Chart for Air Temperature in Eskişehir

Control Chart: VAR00001

Sigma level: 3

9791

8579

7367

6155

4943

3731

2519

137

1

12,13577

11,13994

10,14412

9,14829

8,15247

VAR00001

UCL = 11,9025

Average = 10,1441

LCL = 8,3857

Time Variation of Air Temperature (°C, moving average, lag=7) in Eskişehir (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

13

12

11

10

9

8

VAR00002

MA(VAR00002,7,7)

Temperature deviations from median values in Eskişehir (1901-2001)

ESK İŞEHİR

-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,0

1901

1907

1913

1919

1925

1931

1937

1943

1949

1955

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

YEAR

TEM

PER

ATU

RE

DEV

IATI

ON

S

MAX

02468

10121416

AN

KA

RA

ELA

ZIG

ER

ZIN

CA

N

ER

ZUR

UM

ES

KIS

EH

IR

KA

RS

KA

YS

ER

I

KO

NY

A

MA

LATY

A

SIV

AS

VA

N

1901-1930

1931-1960

1961-1990

1991-1998

1999-2001

Comparison of maximum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia

MIN

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

ANKARA ELAZIG ERZINCAN ERZURUM ESKISEHIR KARS KAYSERI KONYA MALATYA SIVAS VAN

1901-1930

1931-1960

1961-1990

1991-1998

1999-2001

Comparison of minimum air temperature in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia

ANKARA

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 12 23 34 45

MONTH

AIR

TEM

PER

ATU

RE

1999 2000 2001 2002

ESKİŞEHİR

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 12 23 34 45

AIR

TEM

PER

ATU

RE

1999 2000 2001 2002

MONTH

KAYSERİ

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 12 23 34 45

MONTH

AIR

TEM

PER

ATU

RE

1999 2000 2001 2002

KONYA

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 12 23 34 45

MONTH

MEA

N A

IR T

EMPE

RA

TUR

E

1999 2000 2001 2002

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

14

12

10

8

6

Eskiþehir

Ankara

Kayseri

Konya

Time Variation of Air Temperature, (1901-2001)

MEAN

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

ANKARA ELAZIG ERZINCAN ERZURUM ESKISEHIR KARS KAYSERI KONYA MALATYA SIVAS VAN

1901-1930

1931-1960

1961-1990

1991-1998

1999-2001

Comparison of mean air temperature values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia

STDEV

00,20,40,60,8

11,21,4

ANKA

RA

ELAZ

IG

ERZI

NC

AN

ERZU

RU

M

ESKI

SEH

IR

KAR

S

KAYS

ERI

KON

YA

MAL

ATYA

SIVA

S

VAN

1901-1930

1931-1960

1961-1990

1991-1998

1999-2001

Comparison of standard deviations of temperature values in five terms in Central and Eastern Anatolia

T Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya

Eskişehir 1 0.83 0.74 0.93

Ankara 0.83 1 0.89 0.86

Kayseri 0.74 0.89 1 0.86

Konya 0.93 0.86 0.86 1

R Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya

Eskişehir 1 0.64 0.44 0.44

Ankara 0.64 1 0.61 0.63

Kayseri 0.44 0.61 1 0.66

Konya 0.44 0.63 0.66 1

Linear correlationLinear correlation

Time Variation of Aridity in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

10

8

6

4

2

0

VAR00002

MA(VAR00002,7

ESKİŞEHİR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months

AI

Variation of Aridity Values in Turkey, (1901-2001)

MEAN (AI)

0123456789

AN

KA

RA

ELA

ZIG

ER

ZIN

CA

N

ER

ZUR

UM

ES

KIS

EH

IR

KA

RS

KA

YS

ER

I

KO

NY

A

MA

LATY

A

SIV

AS

VA

N

AI

1901-1930

1931-1960

1961-1990

1991-1998

1999-2001

Annual Variation of AI Values in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

10

8

6

4

2

0

VAR00002

MA(VAR00002,7,7)

Annual Variation of AI Values in Ankara, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

5

4

3

2

1

0

VAR00003

MA(VAR00003,7,7)

Annual Variation of AI Values in Kayseri, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

,5

0,0

VAR00004

MA(VAR00004,7,7)

Annual Variation of AI Values in Konya, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

5

4

3

2

1

0

VAR00005

MA(VAR00005,7,7)

Linear CorrelationLinear Correlation

AI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya

Eskişehir 1 0.11 0.17 0.52

Ankara 0.11 1 0.55 0.05

Kayseri 0.17 0.55 1 0.06

Konya 0.52 0.05 0.06 1

IstanbulTekirdagEdirne

Bursa

Canakkale

Antalya

Antakya

Ankara Sinop

Van

Gaziantep RizeArtvin

Samsun

GiresunTrabzon

Konya

Izmir

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

AI, (1901-2001)

Aridity Index ValuesAridity Index Values

AI ESKISEHIR ANKARA KAYSERI KONYA

1901-1930 6.4 3.7 3.3 3.7

1931-1960 5.4 3.0 3.4 4.1

1961-1990 8.1 3.4 3.2 3.1

1991-1998 6.1 3.8 2.3 3.9

1999-2001 4.5 3.9 2.3 3.5

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Eskiþehir

Ankara

Kayseri

Konya

Annual Variation of DM Values, (1901-2001)

Linear Correlation

DM Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya

Eskişehir 1 0.71 0.62 0.50

Ankara 0.71 1 0.69 0.68

Kayseri 0.62 0.69 1 0,75

Konya 0.50 0.68 0.75 1

26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

36

38

40

42

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BANDIRMABILECIK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG


GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBUL

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELI

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RIZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

SANLIURFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK

0 10 15 20 30

Çöl Kurak Yari Nemli Oldukca Nemli Nemli

N0 100 200 300 KM

De Martonne�s Index 1901-1930) , ( (DM) (Piervitali et al, 1999)

26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

36

38

40

42

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BANDIRMABILECIK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG


GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBUL

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELI

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RIZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

SANLIURFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK


0 10 15 20 30

N0 100 200 300 KM


26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

36

38

40

42

27.89

21.17

22.50

25.69

27.97

55.42

30.56

29.8725.47

35.99

26.98

37.0229.87

23.10

25.38

22.62

36.1637.5927.93

19.89

34.34

34.03

30.78

26.32

37.05

28.08

38.46

34.00

20.96

23.44

15.38

25.08

27.6726.98

23.09

26.37

37.27

26.91 31.1127.80

47.35

25.75

25.44

25.12 26.91

18.39

26.1024.65

20.00


0 10 15 20 30

N0 100 200 300 KM


26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

36

38

40

42

25.83

22.61

23.36

25.40

27.89

56.16

31.24

30.6325.90

37.07

25.20

38.0430.02

22.98

27.52

23.42

37.9436.9428.83

19.10

34.66

34.40

28.38

25.75

39.30

28.42

38.67

33.11

22.18

24.69

15.49

25.54

28.0426.90

23.33

25.07

34.10

26.71 31.3628.92

47.83

26.33

29.18

26.33 27.79

17.57

27.0223.58

19.74


0 10 15 20 30 N0 100 200 300 KM


26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

36

38

40

42

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BILECIK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG


GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBUL

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELI

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RIZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

SANLIURFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK


0 10 15 20 30

N0 100 200 300 KM


ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BANDIRMABÝLECÝK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG


GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBULG

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELÝ

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RÝZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

URFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK

26 29 32 35 38 41 44

36

39

42


0 10 15 20 30

N0 100 200 300 KM


VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Eskiþehir

Ankara

Kayseri

Konya

Time Variation of SCDI Values, (1901-2001)

SCDI (MEDIAN)

-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,2

00,20,40,60,8

11,2

ANKARAELA

ZIGERZIN

CANERZURUMESKIS

EHIRKARS

KAYSERIKONYA

MALATYA

SIVASVAN

1901-19301931-19601961-19901991-19981999-2001

Linear Correlation

SCDI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya

Eskişehir 1 0.65 0.52 0.41

Ankara 0.65 1 0.63 0.62

Kayseri 0.52 0.63 1 0.72

Konya 0.41 0.62 0.72 1

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

30

25

20

15

10

5

Eskiþehir

Ankara

Kayseri

Konya

Annual Variation of PCI Values, (1901-2001)

PCI (MEDIAN)

0

5

10

15

20

ANKARAELA

ZIGERZIN

CANERZURUMESKIS

EHIRKARS

KAYSERIKONYA

MALATYA

SIVASVAN

1901-19301931-19601961-19901991-19981999-2001

Linear Correlation

PCI Eskişehir Ankara Kayseri Konya

Eskişehir 1 0.6 0.6 0.56

Ankara 0.6 1 0.57 0.68

Kayseri 0.6 0.57 1 0.64

Konya 0.56 0.68 0.64 1

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BANDIRMABÝLECÝK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG


GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBULG

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELÝ

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RÝZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

URFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK

26 29 32 35 38 41 44

36

39

42

0 10 15 20 50

Uniform Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel Kuvvetli Mevsimsel Ayrik

N0 100 200 300 KM

(PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1901-2001

26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

36

38

40

42

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVIN

BALIKESIR

BILECIK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSACANAKKALE

DIYARBAKIR

EDIRNE

ELAZIG


GAZIANTEP

GIRESUN

GUMUSHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ISTANBUL

IZMIR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERI

KOCAELI

KONYA

KUTAHYA

MALATYAMANISA

MARDIN

MERSIN

MUGLA

ORDU RIZESAMSUN

SIIRT

SINOP

SIVAS

TEKIRDAG TRABZON

SANLIURFA

USAKVAN

ZONGULDAK

N0 100 200 300 KM

Uniform Orta Mevsimsel Mevsimsel Kuvvetli Mevsimsel Ayrik

0 10 15 20 50

(PCI) Indexes (Michielsand Gabriels, 1996), 1998-2001

NDVI ANALYSISNDVI ANALYSIS

ESKİŞEHİR

-0,1

0,1

0,3

0,5

0,7

0,9

10.04.1997

10.08.1997

10.12.1997

10.04.1998

10.08.1998

10.12.1998

10.04.1999

10.08.1999

10.12.1999

10.04.2000

10.08.2000

10.12.2000

10.04.2001

10.08.2001

10.12.2001

10.04.2002

10.08.2002

YEAR

ND

VI

ANKARA

-0,1

0,1

0,3

0,5

0,7

0,9

10.04.1997

10.10.1997

10.04.1998

10.10.1998

10.04.1999

10.10.1999

10.04.2000

10.10.2000

10.04.2001

10.10.2001

10.04.2002

10.10.2002

YEAR

ND

VI

KONYA

-0,1

0,1

0,3

0,5

0,7

0,9

10.04.1997

10.10.1997

10.04.1998

10.10.1998

10.04.1999

10.10.1999

10.04.2000

10.10.2000

10.04.2001

10.10.2001

10.04.2002

10.10.2002

YEAR

ND

VI

KAYSERİ

-0,3

-0,1

0,1

0,3

0,5

0,7

0,9

10.04.1997

10.10.1997

10.04.1998

10.10.1998

10.04.1999

10.10.1999

10.04.2000

10.10.2000

10.04.2001

10.10.2001

10.04.2002

10.10.2002

YEAR

ND

VI

NDVI (2000)

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,521

.01.

2000

21.0

2.20

00

21.0

3.20

00

21.0

4.20

00

21.0

5.20

00

21.0

6.20

00

21.0

7.20

00

21.0

8.20

00

21.0

9.20

00

21.1

0.20

00

MONTH

ND

VI

EskişehirAnkaraKayseriKonya

NDVI (2000-2002)

00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9

10.0

5.20

00

10.0

8.20

00

10.1

1.20

00

10.0

2.20

01

10.0

5.20

01

10.0

8.20

01

10.1

1.20

01

10.0

2.20

02

10.0

5.20

02

MONTH

NDV

I

EskişehirAnkaraKayseriKonya

CENTRAL ANATOLIA (AI-NDVI)

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

Ankara Konya Kayseri Afyon Eskişehir

STATION

AI,

ND

VI AINDVI

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

AR

TVIN

TRA

BZO

NG

IRES

UN

SAM

SUN

SIN

OP

ZON

GU

LDA

KK

AST

AM

ON

UB

OLU

GU

MU

SHA

NE

RİZ

EO

RD

UIS

TAN

BU

LGED

IRN

ETE

KIR

DA

GBİL

ECİK

KO

CA

ELİ

BA

ND

IRM

AC

AN

AK

KA

LEB

ALI

KES

IRB

UR

SAA

DA

PAZA

RI

IZM

IRM

AN

ISA

MU

GLA

AFY

ON

KU

TAH

YA

USA

KIS

PAR

TAB

UR

DU

RA

NTA

LYA

MER

SIN

AD

AN

AH

ATA

YA

NK

AR

AES

KIS

EHIR

KO

NY

AK

AY

SER

ISI

VA

SER

ZUR

UM

ERZI

NC

AN

ELA

ZIG

MA

LATY

AV

AN

SIIR

TK

AR

SU

RFA

DIY

AR

BA

KIR

GA

ZIA

NTE

PM

AR

DIN

STATIONS

ND

VI

15.11.200005.10.200003.09.200014.08.200007.08.200029.07.200008.07.200013.06.200010.05.200006.04.200015.03.200014.03.200002.03.200008.02.200021.01.2000

Variation of NDVI Values in 1987

Variation of NDVI Values in 1988

Spatial variation of NDVI values in 1995

ADANA

ADAPAZARI

AFYON

ANKARA

ANTALYA

ARTVÝN

BALIKESÝR

BANDIRMABÝLECÝK

BOLU

BURDUR

BURSAÇANAKKALE

DÝYARBAKIR

EDÝRNE

ELAZIÐ

ERZÝNCANERZURUMESKÝÞEHIÝR

GAZÝANTEP

GÝRESUN

GÜMÜÞHANE

HATAY

ISPARTA

ÝSTANBULG

ÝZMÝR

KARS

KASTAMONU

KAYSERÝ

KOCAELÝ

KONYA

KÜTAHYA

MALATYAMANÝSA

MARDÝN

MERSÝN

MUÐLA

ORDU RÝZESAMSUN

SÝÝRT

SÝNOP

SÝVAS

TEKÝRDAÐ TRABZON

URFA

UÞAKVAN

ZONGULDAK

26 29 32 35 38 41 44

36

39

42

N

29-04-2001 NDVI

0.25 0.35 0.450.12 0.15

2.SINIF 3.SINIF 4.SINIF 5.SINIF 6.SINIF

NDVI

0,000,100,200,300,40

ARTVIN

SAMSUNKASTA

MONUBURSA

CANAKKALEMANIS

AKUTA

HYAMERSINIS

PARTAANKARAKAYSERI

ELAZIG

URFA

SIIRT

Station

NDVI 1987

1988

NDVI

0,000,100,200,300,40

ARTV

INSAM

SUNKAS

...BURSACAN

...MAN

ISAKUT..

.MERSINISPAR

TAAN

KARA

KAYSERI

ELAZIG

URFASIIR

T

Station

ND

VI 19871995

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS EFFECTS ON PARAMETERS EFFECTS ON

GLIDINGGLIDING

Time Variation of Surface Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

VAR00003

MA(VAR00003,7,7)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

20

10

0

-10

VAR00005

MA(VAR00005,7,7)

Time Variation of Condensation Level-Air Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

40

30

20

10

VAR00006

MA(VAR00006,7,7)

Time Variation of Equivalent Potential Temperature in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

1,1

1,0

,9

,8

,7

,6

,5

,4

VAR00002

MA(VAR00002,7,7)

Time Variation of Relative Humidity in Eskişehir, (1901-2001)

VAR00001

1997,00

1991,00

1985,00

1979,00

1973,00

1967,00

1961,00

1955,00

1949,00

1943,00

1937,00

1931,00

1925,00

1919,00

1913,00

1907,00

1901,00

360000

350000

340000

330000

320000

310000

300000

290000

VAR00002

MA(VAR00002,7,7)

Time Variation of Moist Static Energy in Eskişehir, (H, 1901-2001)

ESKİŞEHİR (DEVIATION)

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

400001 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99

YEAR

MO

IST

STAT

IC E

NERG

Y

Moist Static Energy, Eskişehir

DEVIATIONS (Eskişehir)

-15

-10-5

05

1015

2019

0119

0819

1519

2219

2919

3619

4319

5019

5719

6419

7119

7819

8519

9219

99

Year

TCL,

TETA

,TS

TCLTETATS

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Analysis of Rainfall Rate

The cities Adapazarõ, Bilecik, Edirne, Kocaeli, Tekirdağ, Konya and Kayseri are under the dry conditions. Annual total rainfall rate is less than 600mm. Rainfall rate values have increased in the Marmara Region, and total annual rainfall rate values would be more than 600mm in following 30 years period, Aslan et al, (2004). There is a significant evidence of this trend for α= 0.05 in Adapazarõ, Kocaeli and Istanbul. Based on long term estimations, wet conditions are expected in Adapazarõ beginning from 2003. In Black Sea Region, annual total rainfall rate values generally show an increasing trend except Kastamonu and Samsun.

Analysis of Air Temperature

Temperature scenarios based on the linear model in all stations show an increasing trend in the Marmara Region. It is estimated that annual air temperature values in this region would increase 0.3oC until 2030. Similar increasing trend is observed in Akdeniz Region in general. In this region, annual average air temperature values recorded between 1991-2001 are 0.2 � 2.1oC higher than temperature values observed between 1981 and 1990. In Eastern Anatolia average air temperature values also show an increasing trend.

Analysis of Aridity

There is no aridity risk at the southern, western and northeastern part of Turkey. In the Marmara Region, regional maximum of AI is equal to 2.99 (humid area). Thrace Part, Central and Eastern Anatolia are under the aridity risk. In Eastern Anatolia, semi�humid or dry conditions have been observed instead of humid or semi-humid conditions in recent years.

Analysis of Precipitation Concentration Index

Analysis show that there is a seasonal rainfall distribution in Southern Anatolia and Akdeniz Region. Other regions have a moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. Black Sea regions had a uniform rainfall distribution in the previous periods.

Analysis of Regional Variation of Simple Climate Departure Index

SCDI values are increased in all geographical regions, except Mediterranean Region in Turkey. The highest increasing values have been recorded in The Marmara Region and Central Anatolia. In these areas SCDI values which are greater than zero and, positive SCDI values correspond to positive departures of precipitation. In contrast SCDI values are negative in Akdeniz Region

Between 1901-1930, 1961-1990 and 1991-1998, except Black Sea Region at all regions in Turkey, there are moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. At Black Sea Region, until 1990, uniform rainfall distribution was observed. Between 1931 and 1960, at South-eastern Anatolia, there is moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. In the last term (between 1999- 2001), South-eastern Anatolia, Mediterranean and Aegean Sea Regions have a seasonal rainfall distribution. In general Turkey is under the effects of moderate seasonal rainfall distribution.

Analysis of NDVI

Density of vegetation cover (Normalised Vegetation Index, NDVI) variations are presented in figure. In summer period, except Black Sea Region, NDVI values are low in Turkey. In general, beginning from 2000, NDVI values show an increasing trend in Turkey, but in Southern Anatolia lower NDVI values have been observed than the other regions

CONCLUSION

This study is related with the utilisation and interpretation of some surface measurements together with the remote sensing data to explain and have some solutions of urbanization, climate changing on gliding.

Analysis of Climatic Parameters Effects on Gliding

Surface temperature shows increasing (approximately 1,5 C) trend in Eskişehir.

Time variation of condensation level temperature shows slightly increasing trend in Eskişehir.

Equivalent Potential Temperature increases beginning from 2000.

Moist static energy shows increasing trend, Kahya (2000).

AcknowledgementThe authors wish to thank to Dr. Filippo Giorgi (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics ) and Eng. Lütfiye Kuşak for their supports. Input of this paper is related with a national research project supported by Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Council (TÜBİTAK, TOGTAG-Project No: 2846), and authors are very much obliged to TÜBİTAK for their financial support.

REFERENCESAslan, Z., Maktav, D., Skidmore, E. L., Feoli, E., Sunar Erbek, F., Erol, H., Berberoğlu, S., Okçu, D., Söğüt A. S., 2004: Erosion Risk Map of Turkey: Classification of Erosion Risk by UsingClimatological and Remote Sensing Data, TUBITAK, Agriculture, Forestry and Food TechnologiesResearch Grant Committee, Project No:TOGTAG-2846.

Aslan, Z., and A. Tokgozlu, (2000a): �Climatological Changing Effects on rainfall Erositivty and Wind Erosion�, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications�, p.265-273.

Aslan, Z., (2000b): �Climate Change Scenarios: Rainfall and Wind Erosion Prediction�, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications�, Proceedings (Workshops), p.4-5.

Feoli, E., Giacomich, P., Mignozzi, K., Öztürk, M., Scimone, M., 2000. The Use of GIS and remote sensing in monitoring desertification risk in coastal areas of Turkey, AGROENVIRON2000: 2nd. International Symposium on New Technologies for Environmental Monitoring and Agro-Applications, Tekirdag, Turkey, 39 � 47.

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Giorgi, F., and Francisco, R., 2000. Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climatechange. Geophysical Research Letters. 27., 9., 1295-1298.

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Lindemann,C., (1988):« Soaring Climatology of Thermal Convection »,Technical Soaring,Vol. 12, p95-100.

Michiels and Gabriels, (1996), �Rain Variability Indices for The Assesment of Rainfall Erosivity inthe Mediterranean Region�, Soil degredation and Desertification in Mediterranean Environments, JL. Rubio and a. Calvo eds., Geoforma Ediciones, Logrono.

New, M. G., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D., 1999. Representing 20th century space�time climatevariability. I: Development of 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology, J. Climate,12, 829-856.

New, M. G., Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D., 2000. Representing 20th. Century space- time climatevariability. II: Development of 1901-1996 monthly terrestrial climate fields, J. Climate, 13, 2217-2238.

Piervitali, E., M. Conte and M. Colacino. (1999)- Rainfall Over the Central-Western Mediterranean Basin in the Period, 1951- 1995.II. Precipitation Scenarios. Nuovo Cimento C. 22C. 5. pp. 649 - 661.

Reinhardt, M. E., 1985: �Fallstudien zu Flussmessungen entlang einer Tiefflugstacke Südlich von München DFVLR-Mitt. 85-04, p. 69-79.

Turkeş, M., (1999): �Vulnerability of Turkey to Desertifiation with Respect to Precipitation and Aridity Conditions�, Tr. J. of Engineering and Environmental Science, Vol. 23, p. 363-380.

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climatic changes of gliding conditions · climatic changes of gliding conditions z. aslan istanbul...

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