Presented by:

VIVIEN S. ESQUIVEL

PAGASA-DOST

ENSO ENSO PhenomenonPhenomenon

is a large-scale natural fluctuation of the global climate system resulting from the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).

is a large-scale natural fluctuation of the global climate system resulting from the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Because the ocean warming (El Niño) relates to pressure fluctuations (the Southern Oscillation) that occur simultaneously, scientists call this phenomenon the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.

South American fisherman have given this phenomenon the name El Nino, which is Spanish for "The Christ Child," because it comes about the time of the celebration of the birth of the Christ Child at Christmas.

TWO PHASES OF ENSO

El Niño Phenomenon is a coupled interaction between the ocean and atmosphere

Normal Condition

• In a normal condition the trade winds blow westward and push warm surface water near Australia and New Guinea.

• When warm water builds up in the western Pacific Ocean, nutrient-rich cold water comes up off the west coast of South America & fosters the growth of the fish population.

EL NIÑO

During El Niño, the trade winds weaken and warm, nutrient-poor water occupies the entire tropical Pacific Ocean

El Niño Conditions

La Niña

is the opposite of

El Niño

La Niña is a climate pattern where the water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator gets colder than usual and affects the atmosphere and weather around the world. A “La Nina” event often, but not always, follows an El Nino event and vice versa

La Niña

• During La Niña, the trade winds are stronger than normal and blow westward, push warm surface water near Australia and New Guinea.

• Warm waters are carried by the winds towards Indonesia and the nearby regions like the Philippines.

• This translates into La Niña

IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALLIMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

REDRED colored years arecolored years are EL NINOEL NINO years, years, BLUEBLUE colored years are colored years are LA LA NINANINA years and years and BLACKBLACK colored years are colored years are NON_ENSONON_ENSO years years

Legend: Legend:

Severe drought Severe drought impactsimpacts

Drought Drought impacts with impacts with major lossesmajor losses

Moderate Moderate drought drought impactsimpacts

Near normal to Near normal to above normal above normal conditioncondition

Way above Way above normal normal conditioncondition

Potential for Potential for flood damageflood damage

Severe flood Severe flood damagedamage

From Philippine Star ( December 2010 Albay Flooding)

Compostela Valley Flooding (Jan 3,2011)

Mindanao Flood (January 5, 2011) Mindanao Flood (January 7, 2011)

2010-2011 La Niña Impacts

Sept-November TC tracks during the six strongest warm years

Sept-November TC tracks during the six strongest cold years

1.1. Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTa)Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTa)

Threshold Values:

ENSO indicators

2. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)2. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

Threshold Values:

ENSO indicators

EL NIÑO CONDITIONEL NIÑO CONDITION LA NIÑA CONDITIONLA NIÑA CONDITION

Australia

HH LL HHLL

Australia

3. Anomaly in the Trade Winds (Easterlies)3. Anomaly in the Trade Winds (Easterlies)

El Niño - Tradewinds are weaker than normal

La Niña – Tradewinds are stronger than normal

Easterly surface winds weakens, retreat to the E. Pacific, allowing the central Pacific to warm, and the rain area to migrate eastward.

EL NINO CONDITION (WARM PHASE)

• excessive warming of the surface ocean in the CEEP;

• associated with westerly wind anomaly

• high negative values of SOI

CEEP warmingCEEP warming

LA NINA CONDITION LA NINA CONDITION (COLD PHASE)(COLD PHASE)

• excessive cooling of the surface ocean in the CEEP;

• associated with enhanced easterly winds and

• high positive values of SOI

CEEP COOLINGCEEP COOLING

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the Oceanic Niño Index

NOTE (Mar. 2012):

The historical values of the ONI have slightly changed due to an update in the climatology. Please click here for more details on the methodology:

Historical ONI Values

HighestEl Niño ONI Value

LowestLa Niña ONI Value

JJA 1951 – DJF 1951/52 1.2 ASO 1949 – JAS 1950 -1.4

DJF 1952/53 – JFM 1954 0.8 SON 1950 – JFM 1951 -0.8

MAM 1957 – JJA 1958 1.8 AMJ 1954 − NDJ 1956/57 -1.7

OND 1958 – FMA 1959 0.6 AMJ 1964 – DJF 1964/65 -0.8

MJJ 1963 – JFM 1964 1.4 JJA 1970 – DJF 1971/72 -1.3

AMJ 1965 – MAM 1966 1.9 AMJ 1973 – JJA 1974 -2.0

JAS 1968 – DJF 1969/70 1.1 SON 1974 – MAM 1976 -1.7

AMJ 1972 – FMA 1973 2.1 ASO 1983 – DJF 1983/84 -0.9

ASO 1976 - JFM 1977 0.8 SON 1984 – ASO 1985 -1.1

ASO 1977 – JFM 1978 0.8 AMJ 1988 – AMJ 1989 -1.9

AMJ 1982 – MJJ 1983 2.2 ASO 1995 – FMA 1996 -0.9

JAS 1986 – JFM 1988 1.6 JJA 1998 – FMA 2001 -1.7

AMJ 1991 – MJJ 1992 1.6 OND 2005 – FMA 2006 -0.9

ASO 1994 – FMA 1995 1.2 JAS 2007 – MJJ 2008 -1.5

AMJ 1997 – MAM 1998 2.4 JJA 2010 – MAM 2011 -1.5

AMJ 2002 – JFM 2003 1.3 ASO 2011 – FMA 2012 -1.0

JJA 2004 – DJF 2004/05 0.7

ASO 2006 – DJF 2006/07 1.0

JJA 2009 – MAM 2010 1.6

Graphic Courtesy of Jan Null/www.ggweather.com

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