climate versus the economy: what's the right trade-off?
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Climate Versus the Economy: What's the Right Trade-off?. Bruce M. Everett The Fletcher School October 16, 2008. The climate change argument has two components. How well do we understand the issue?. How hard is it to reduce global carbon emissions?. A simple test of scientific knowledge. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Bruce M. EverettThe Fletcher School
October 16, 2008
Climate Versus the Economy: Climate Versus the Economy: What's the Right Trade-off?What's the Right Trade-off?
The climate change argument has two components
How well do we understand the
issue?
How hard is it to reduce global carbon emissions?
Drop a golf ball from a height of1 meter. Specify location, air pressure, humidity, wind and rotation.
Ask 100 scientists how long it will take the ball to hit the floor.
Their answers would be identical: 0.45 seconds.
Falsifiable experiments tell us that standard gravity is 9.80665 m/sec2.
Science = quantification
A simple test of scientific knowledgeA simple test of scientific knowledge
The UN Intergovernmental PanelThe UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)on Climate Change (IPCC)
•Won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
•Done an excellent literature review
•But do they agree on climate science?
Glo
bal
Su
rfac
e W
arm
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(ºC
)IPCC Scenario A1BIPCC Scenario A1B
Scenario specifies: - Population - GDP - Energy demand - Energy supply by fuel - Technology
Glo
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Su
rfac
e W
arm
ing
(ºC
)IPCC Scenario A1BIPCC Scenario A1B
Lowest model run(+1.7° C)
Scenario specifies: - Population - GDP - Energy demand - Energy supply by fuel - Technology
Glo
bal
Su
rfac
e W
arm
ing
(ºC
)IPCC Scenario A1BIPCC Scenario A1B
Lowest model run(+1.7° C)
Scenario specifies: - Population - GDP - Energy demand - Energy supply by fuel - Technology
Highest model run(+4.4° C)
Glo
bal
Su
rfac
e W
arm
ing
(ºC
)IPCC Scenario A1BIPCC Scenario A1B
“Consensus”(+2.8° C)
Lowest model run(+1.7° C)
Averaging inconsistent results is an opinion, not science.
Stop agreeing and start arguing!
Highest model run(+4.4° C)
With all due respect to Al Gore, the scientific debate about climate
change is not over.
How difficult is it to reduce global carbon emissions?
Bill
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Other OECD
FSU/EE
Source: EIA
China
Other devel
Projected global COProjected global CO22 emissions emissions
US
No government has indicated any willingness to sacrifice economic growth for carbon reduction.
International cooperation is a MYTHInternational cooperation is a MYTH
The Kyoto Protocol creates five groups:
1. Developing countries with rights but no obligations.
2. Russia/Eastern Europe, whose post-1990 economic collapse is treated as energy efficiency.
3. Germany/UK, who had met their targets before they signed the treaty.
4. The rest of the EU, Japan, Canada and Australia who have targets but won’t meet them.
5. The US, which sensibly declined to participate.
Bill
ion
me
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Other OECD
FSU/EE
Source: EIA
China
Other devel +20%
If US emissions in 2030 were zero, global emissions would still be 20% above 2005.
What steps should the US take to reduce carbon emissions?
Mil
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etri
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r o
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O2
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
2005 carbon emissions = 6,000 MMt
Mil
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c to
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O2
6,000
2008 auto standards
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
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c to
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yea
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O2
6,000
Green Office Buildings
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
lio
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etri
c to
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per
yea
r o
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O2
6,000
+20 nuclear plants
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
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c to
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per
yea
r o
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O2
6,000
15% renewable standard
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
lio
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etri
c to
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per
yea
r o
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O2
6,000
Fluorescent light bulbs
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
lio
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etri
c to
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yea
r o
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O2
6,000
10-fold increase in public transportation
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
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c to
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O2
6,000
Replace all refrigerators
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
lio
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c to
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per
yea
r o
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O2
6,000
20 million new solar roofs
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
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c to
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per
yea
r o
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O2
6,000
Reduce driving by 30 miles per month
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
lio
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etri
c to
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per
yea
r o
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O2
6,000
Projected increasein US by 2030
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Mil
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etri
c to
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per
yea
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O2
6,000
Projected increasein China by 2030.
Steps to reduce US carbon emissionsSteps to reduce US carbon emissions
Both Presidential candidates agree…Both Presidential candidates agree…
• Frighten the public with scary scenarios.
• Take immediate actions which have: High profile Low-cost Negligible impact.
• Promise strong action in the distant future.
• Participate in unproductive international negotiations.
• Congratulate themselves on their vision.
• Hope the public buys it.
What we should doWhat we should do
1. Study climate change and portray the results honestly.
2. Acknowledge the high cost of reducing CO2.
3. Look at a 100-year, not a 30-year horizon.
4. Make meaningful promises and keep them.
5. Privatize and deregulate electric power.
6. Remove constraints on natural gas.• Find new domestic supplies• Facilitate international trade
7. Revive the civilian nuclear power industry.
8. Encourage private sector research.