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Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001- 2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington

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Page 1: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002

Philip W. Mote

Climate Impacts Group

University of Washington

Page 2: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 3: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 4: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

A history of the PDO

warmcool

warmA history of ENSO

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Page 5: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 6: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 7: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 8: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 9: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Effects of PDO and ENSO on Idaho temperature

Warm ENSO, warm PDO

Warm ENSO

Cool ENSO

Cool ENSO, cool PDO

½

ENSO neutral, cool PDO

Deg

rees

F

Years classified according to http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

Page 10: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Effects of PDO and ENSO on Idaho precipitation

Warm ENSO, warm PDO

Warm ENSO

Cool ENSO

Cool ENSO, cool PDO

ENSO neutral, cool PDO

Years classified according to http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

Page 11: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Summary

ENSO, PDO play a modest role in winter and spring climate:

warm ENSO, warm PDO tilt balance to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation

cool ENSO, cool PDO tilt balance (less) toward cool wet

ENSO and PDO can “cancel” each other Jan-Jun sensitive period for temp, Nov-Mar sensitive

period for precipitation

Page 12: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Nov 2000-Feb 2001 500mb height

Page 13: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Nov 2000-Feb 2001 temperature anomalies

Degrees F

Page 14: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Nov 2000-Feb 2001 precipitation anomalies

Standard deviations

Page 15: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

2000-2001 Idaho temperature

Warm ENSO, warm PDO

Cool ENSO, cool PDO

½

Deg

rees

F

Years classified according to http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

Page 16: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

2000-2001 Idaho precipitation

Warm ENSO, warm PDO

Cool ENSO, cool PDO

Years classified according to http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

* 2001 water year

Page 17: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Monitoring El Niño

ENSO Observing Network of 70 buoys

Page 18: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 19: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 20: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 21: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

The European Center’s ENSO Forecast

Forecast SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific, from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(www.ecmwf.int)

Page 22: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 23: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

ENSO outlook summary

ENSO remains in a near-neutral state

Leading ENSO prediction models are calling for weak El Nino sometime

We’ve heard this before…

Page 24: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Page 25: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Global SST anomalies

Page 26: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Update

• Since fall 1998, PDO index has consistently had negative values • PDO Persistence has historically been a skillful forecast (correct ~75% of the time)• odds favor “cool/negative PDO” for winter 2002

1970 1980 1990 2000

0

Page 27: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

NDJ

FMA

MJJ

Page 28: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 29: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Page 30: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

The Pineapple Expressand tropical rainfall: a potential NW link to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation

Page 31: Climate variations in the Northwest, seasonal climate forecasting, and outlook for winter 2001-2002 Philip W. Mote Climate Impacts Group University of

Conclusions

Weak El Niño possible early 2002?CPC’s forecast (educated guesswork) for

Idaho: normal winter, spring will be warmer what about PDO? Cool/wet influence

(ignored by CPC)Ocean situation similar to last year (but

atmosphere ignored ocean last year)

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