climate variability, change and local government · legislative requirements to assess risk (cdem...

The Climate Change and Urban Impacts Toolbox

Workshop - July 2012

Stage 2: Risk identification and assessment using

RiskScape: multi-hazard impact and risk modelling tool

Ryan Paulik – Hazard Analyst, NIWA

http://www.planning.org.nz/

Presentation Overview

Introduction to the RiskScape Model and Program

RiskScape Model Design

RiskScape Uses

RiskScape Demonstration: Westport Flood Example

Get Involved in RiskScape

Urban Impacts Toolbox:

Third Tray – Identify the Risks

Tool 3.2:

Using RiskScape for

Risk Analysis

Tool 3.3:

Case Study Example of

Risk Assessment Using

RiskScape

What is RiskScape?

A program to develop an easy-to-use impact and risk assessment

model for natural hazards.

RiskScape is developed jointly by NIWA and GNS Science with impact and risk models

contributed by:

NIWA for weather and coastal hazards,

GNS Science for geological hazards, and

Jointly where cross-over occurs e.g. tsunami.

Introduction to the RiskScape Model and Program

Why the need for RiskScape?

Legislative requirements to assess risk (CDEM Act 2002) and avoid or

mitigate the potential effects of natural hazards (RMA 1991).

No standardised methods in New Zealand for the quantitative

assessment of natural hazard impacts and risk.

No natural hazard impact and risk assessment software developed

specifically for New Zealand.

Nationally, economic and social impacts from natural hazards occur

frequently….

25 (57) major

events

2001-2010 18 (23) major

events

1981-90

20 (39) major

events

1991-00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Insu

ran

ce

pa

y o

uts

20

07

($

mill

ion

)

Year Insurance Council NZ, 2011

RiskScape Requirements

In scoping the RiskScape model, potential end-users required that

a impact and risk model be:

Available at a reasonable cost

Not reliant on an expensive GIS platform or other software

Easy to learn

Runs relatively quickly

Flexible enough to import local hazard and asset data

Able to model impacts and risk for multiple hazards

Able to create impact and risk models for a range of

natural hazard management activities

Maintained sustainably

RiskScape Progress

2004-2008: Phase 1 – ‘Proof of Concept’

Investigate end-user needs

Test existing impact and risk model software (e.g. HAZUS)

Develop a working software prototype for multiple hazards

International panel review

2008-2016: Phase 2 – ‘Operational Model’

Expand range of hazards, assets and impacts able to be modelled.

Expand asset dataset e.g. national building database

Calibrate and refine vulnerability models e.g. post-disaster surveys

Increase end-user uptake

Risk Assessment

Approach

The model is built on a generic

framework for estimating risk

from a natural hazard event:

Risk =

Hazard x Asset at risk x

Consequences

RiskScape Model Design

Third

Tray:

Identify

the Risks

Fourth

Tray:

Decision

Support

Tools

Hazard Asset Vulnerability Impact

RiskScape Modules Building RiskScape on generic risk framework has enabled its modular design.

Impacts

Assets

Attribute

Attribute

Attribute

Hazard

Exposure

Exposure

Vulnerability

Damage / Fragility function

Damage / Fragility function

Windstorm

Wind speeds

150-180km/h

(1:50yr)

Building class:

Timber/weatherboard

Residential building

Construction year 1960

Sheet metal roof

Pre-determined relationship

of how susceptible/

vulnerable this building

class is to wind damage? - damage states: 25% minor, 60%

moderate, 15% severe damage

- $10-40k building repair costs

- 5% un-inhabitable for >1 month

Earthquake

Ashfall

Floods

Wind

Tsunami Landslides

Hazard Module

Storm Surge

Drought

Wildfire

Coastal Erosion Water Supply

Dam Breach

Hazard Module

Earthquakes Volcanoes Tsunami Floods Wind

Real-time Landslides

Storm Surge

Earthquake Ashfall Tsunami Floods

Landslides

Wind

Pre-computed

Asset Module • Asset inventories that contain social or

economic asset attributes vulnerable to natural

hazard impact/damage.

• Asset attributes obtained from a range of

databases e.g. Quotable Value, Statistics NZ.

• Asset attribute details on a site by basis are

ideally required for high resolution modelling.

• Inventories can be developed at various scales

depending on the modelling purpose e.g.

regional/district scale, floodplain, multi-lot

subdivision.

Asset Module

Data Collection and Quality

Asset Module

Data Collection and Quality

Data Quality (a number in range 1 to 7)

1. Global knowledge (guessed from general understanding of assets)

2. Derived by random selection from distributions - low reliability

3. Derived by random selection from distributions - high reliability

(includes occupancies and other statistical data with meshblock or Area

Unit resolution, and distributions derived from QV data)

4. Supplied (by a reliable agent on a building by building or property by

property basis (council, owner, QV) (includes Rawlinson cost-rates

applied to QV floor area data)

5. Observed (by walk-by survey where only part of the asset is visible)

6. Surveyed (by detailed inspection of specific asset)

7. Measured (by reference to plans and engineering calculation)

FOOT_ID nzmgE nzmgN Storeys Year RV ($2009) Nconstype Nstrqual OccN OccD AmpCls LqCls LsCls C_Val_Tot

60000068 2471942 5739842 1 1960 553,400 6 1 0 5 5 5 1 110,700

60000069 2471942 5739842 2 1995 1,026,900 5 2 0 13 5 5 1 410,800

60000070 2471942 5739842 1.73 1975 1,499,200 5 2 0 18 5 5 1 599,700

60000071 2471940 5739839 1.42 1960 1,258,900 6 1 0 15 5 5 1 503,600

60000072 2470687 5740740 1 1990 251,800 1 1 2 0 5 5 1 75,500

60000073 2474991 5747444 1 1975 21,800 5 1 0 0 5 5 1 17,400

60000074 2474993 5747447 1.31 1980 1,789,600 1 1 1 12 5 5 1 357,900

60000075 2473346 5743100 1.92 1990 545,100 1 1 4 1 5 5 1 163,500

60000076 2477073 5742315 1 1990 90,500 1 1 1 0 5 5 1 27,200

60000077 2477741 5743869 1.25 1990 226,300 1 1 1 0 5 5 1 67,900

60000078 2487598 5744216 1 1940 81,700 5 1 0 0 4 2 1 65,400

60000079 2483318 5741209 1 1975 22,400 5 1 0 0 5 5 1 17,900

60000080 2482815 5742058 1 1920 98,200 5 1 1 0 5 5 1 39,300

60000081 2483221 5741943 1.8 1900 641,400 7 1 0 11 5 5 1 192,400

60000082 2480345 5740719 1 1920 20,700 10 1 0 0 5 5 1 16,500

Vulnerability Module

Social and Economic Impact Categories

Indirect

Non - $

Direct

$

- Business disruption

- Loss of production

- Disruption of networks

- Disruption of public serv.

- Disruption of households

- Alternative accommodation

…..

- Loss of jobs

- Disruption to schooling

- Disruption to Social life

- Stress induced ill health

- Other health effects

- Environmental damage

.....

Non - $ $

- Buildings

- Contents

- Clean-up

- Disruption

- Vehicles

- Agricultural damage

- Forestry damage

- Infrastructure

.....

- People affected

- People injured

- People dead

- Loss of personal items

……


Damage and Fragility Curves • Damage Curves: Relate hazard characteristics (e.g. flood inundation depth) to a % of

asset damage (e.g. relative to building replacement cost).

• Fragility Curves: Describe a (probabilistic) relationship between demand (e.g. flood

inundation depth) and asset damage.

Damage

ratio

Hazard intensity


Post-Event Damage Surveys

• Direct and indirect impact data

collected to either develop or

validate damage and fragility

functions. Greater volume of

data collected decreases

uncertainties associated with

these functions.

• Impact surveys are undertaken

by either field investigations,

postal surveys or a

combination of both.

Module Data Availability

Vulnerability

Hazard

Assets

Buildings

People

Lifelines, economy

Partially provided

Provided by RiskScape

Provided by RiskScape

Provide own data

Earthquakes – provided by RiskScape

Volcanoes – provided by RiskScape

Floods – provide own data

Wind – provide own data

Tsunami – provide own data

RiskScape Tools

Model Limitations

Like any form of modelling there are limitations…..

• Calculating impacts and risk is influenced by the accuracy of hazard models.

• Asset attributes are often missing from asset databases and therefore need to

be generated to enable impact and risk (i.e. accuracy levels assigned).

• The development of robust (i.e. natural hazard event developed or calibrated)

damage and vulnerability functions is a worldwide issue for weather hazards

and may not exist for all hazard and asset impact combinations. Some

damage curves have to be created from expert knowledge in the first instance

then calibrated in the field (common practise).

• Uncertainty quantifiers are planned to be built into the RiskScape model.

RiskScape Uses

Local Government

RMA 1991 CDEMA 2002 LGA 2002

State of Environment/ Plan

Provision Monitoring /Natural

Hazard Records (s.35)

Section 17

• Risk Identification, assessment and

Communication

• Group Plan Development/Review

• Emergency Response

• Emergency Recovery

• CDEM Training (also s.18)

Bylaws (s.145, s.149)

Regional Policy

Statements/Regional

Plans/District Plans (s.32,

s.62, s. 65, s.75)

Long-term Community

Council/Annual Plans

(s.93, s.95)

Resource Consents (s. 104,

s.106, s.108) (??)

Public education (s.56) Asset

Management/Community

Services (s.11A)

Note: RiskScape’s use is not limited to only the above Acts or Policies.

Private and Research Sectors

Lifeline Utilities Insurance Research

• Ability to maintain

operation during and

emergency (CDEMA

s.60).

• Infrastructure impact and

risk assessment

• Infrastructure

management

(planning/staging

upgrades etc.).

• High resolution impact and

risk modelling (impacts

calculated at site scale).

• Underwriting – setting

premiums and deductible

rates.

• Risk portfolio monitoring

and contingency planning

e.g. event scenarios.

• Software that supports the

development and application of

damage and fragility functions

created from historical events,

engineering experiments, social

surveys etc.

• Generate impact and risk data to

facilitate research such as

hazard mitigation effectiveness,

social surveys on hazard

perceptions and preparedness.

Insurance Council NZ, 2011

RiskScape Demonstration:

Westport A2 2090 1 in 50 Year Flood Event


Impact Model Selection

1. Impact Model: Select Hazard, Asset and Impacts

types to create an impact model run.


Impact Model Refinement

2. Select Asset Data: Option of using the complete

building dataset or a subset e.g.

timber-weatherboard buildings only.

3. Select Aggregation Unit: Option to aggregate impact data to

Grid (1km x1km), Suburb,

Meshblock area units.


4. Select Hazard Model: All available flood hazard models

for Westport are listed.

5. Select Hazard Parameters: Dropdown box with a list of

Westport flood hazard models for

different future emission scenarios.

6. Select Impact Model: Chose a relationship between

building vulnerability and either

flood-depth/velocity or flood-depth

only.



7. Select Time of Event: Option to flood Westport at either day time

or night time. Generally more relevant for

modelling human impacts.

8. Select Mitigation Factor: Option to chose the amount of lead time before flood

inundation. Important for calculating the potential

reduction to building and contents damage.


Run Impact Model Analysis


Impact Model Results

9. View Assets: View the spatial distribution of the

assets and their attributes used in

the impact model run.

10. View Hazard and Impacts: View the flood hazard model and

overlay the impacts calculated by

the impact model run.

11. View Aggregated Impacts: View the distribution of aggregated

impacts calculated for each grid unit.


Impact Model Results

12. CSV File: Export impact data to MS Excel to

analyse in more detail.

13. Google Earth: Export impact data to Google Earth for a quick overview

of the spatial distribution of impacts.


Get Involved in RiskScape

We are keen to get more people

and organisations using the tool!!

• Sign-up as an individual user on

the RiskScape website.

• Local governments can become

partners (currently have 3 partner

areas/regions) to tailor the model

for their jurisdictional area.

• Researchers can participate by

creating RiskScape modules (e.g.

hazard, asset, vulnerability) and

software add-ins or tools.

Website: www.riskscape.org.nz

Contact: [email protected]

http://www.riskscape.org.nz/

mailto:[email protected]

Questions and Discussion

The Toolbox is located at:

http//:www.niwa.co.nz/climate/urban-impacts-toolbox

climate variability, change and local government · legislative requirements to assess risk (cdem...

Documents