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Climate SMART Tools for East Africa

Key NOTE Presentation to COP21- EAC Side Event: 4th December 2015

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Contributors: Gideon Galu1 , Christopher Shitote1 , Joseph O Ogutu2, Geoffrey Sabiti3, Christopher Oludhe4 and Mohammed Y Said5

1USGS/FEWS NET, P.O. Box 66613, Nairobi, Kenya 2 Biostatistics Unit , University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany

3IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), P.O. BOX 10304, 00100 - Dagoretti Corner, Nairobi, Kenya

4University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100 Nairobi, Kenya

5The Centre for Sustainable Dryland Ecosystems and Societies (CSDES), University of Nairobi, P.O. 30197-00100 Box, Nairobi, Kenya

Outline

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What’s NEW ? – EAC Climate datasets & tools !

Results – Opportunities and Challenges

What are the next steps - Post COP21 ?

CLIMATE HAZARDS INFRARED PRECIPITATION (CHIRP 2.0)

Characteristics :

IR temperature, FEWS NET Climatology + More Station

Data

Compositing Period:

5-day (pentadal), and monthly

Spatial Resolution:

0.05 degree; ~ 5 kilometer

Latency:

Available 2 days after the end of the composite

Regions:

Global : 50 to -50 latitude

Climate Hazards Infra-Red Precipitation with

Stations (CHIRPs)

Global Raingauge Obs inputs to CHIRP 2.0

24725 stations Oct. 1981

+155 EAC Rainfall stations

AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATASETS & TOOLS

http://chg.ucsb.edu/data/

Citation: "The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes" in Scientific Data, DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2015.66

chirps@geog.ucsb.edu

AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATASETS & TOOLS

http://chg.ucsb.edu/tools/

Climate data-

visualization and analysis tool for

climate risk mapping”

GeoCLIM

Basic crop

modeling tool for crop monitoring, forecasting and

agricultural risk

mapping.”

GeoWRSI

Statistical forecasting & Interpretation

tools that allows for automated

seasonal

forecasts & Early Warning with

improved spatial scale .”

GeoCOF

“Dynamic tool that allows for integration of

climate changes and socio-

economic trends to characterize

changing human vulnerabilities.”

VIA & A

“Web-based

decision support information systems for

monitoring and analyzing climate variability trends

and their impacts.”

EAC Web-Server

Geospatial tools and datasets developed and supported through strategic partnerships: USAID/PREPARED Program, ICPAC, CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET , NMS, LVBC and EAC Member States

Decision Support Tools

CHIRPS DRIVEN TOOLS

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SHRINKING MAIZE ZONES – STAPLE CROP Maize growing zones are declining due to changing climatic stressors and human settlements …

Conclusion:

Observed drying trends in medium and marginal maize growing areas.

Increased rainfall variability making difficult for farmers to predict and plan.

Warming trends (Tmin and Tmax) affecting maize yield at critical stages of seed development.

Parts of highly populous regions of central Kenya and northeastern Tanzania showing declining trends

Observed increased rainfall variability Shrinking changes in rainfall patterns

Maize zones 1990 - 2009 1960 - 1989

KENYA

UGANDA

TANZANIA

Stable Slightly Highly Extremely

MAIZE PRODUCTION per CAPITA Declining maize production per capita for deficit areas and increasing trends for some export countries, with consistent declining, but, high inter-annual variability in rainfall per capita trends…

Conclusion:

Source: FAOSTAT data

1. Observed high inter-annual maize production per capita trends in past 5 decades.

2. Also, highly variable, but, declining annual rainfall per capita trends.

3. National agriculture policies and export strategies, have encouraged increased maize production in Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda..

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DRYING RAINFALL TRENDS

WARMING TRENDS

KENYA DECLINING COFFEE PRODUCTION

Conclusion:

1. Area under coffee declined by 35% and production by 62%.

2. Global prices increased by over 300% per ton in the last decade.

3. Observed warming and drying trends in hitherto coffee growing areas have affected yield.

4. Worsened by increased population density and high incentive for property development.

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KENYA DECLINING COFFEE PRODUCTION “Every 1◦C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 kg ha−1(P = 1.80e-10)”

Craparo ACW, et al, Journal of Agricultural & Forestry Meteorology, (2015) .

Kiambu – Windsor hotel and real estate properties, formerly a large coffee estate Tmin Trend

Estimated Kenya Population Density

Urban Heating?

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2015 ETHIOPIA: WORST DROUGHT THAN 1984 ! Recent FEWS NET & Partners Assessment in Afar & Sitti Regions of Ethiopia

Is climate change changing ENSO events coupled with increasing populations, worsening their adverse impacts ?

Vulnerability Impact Assessment & Adaptation

Questions: • Who is vulnerable? • Why are they vulnerable? • What are their adaptive

capacities?

Demand for geospatial Data & Analytical Tools: • Historical climate trends and

future climate scenario’s • Socio-economic trends • Local Capacities

Source: CIESIN

“characterize changing human vulnerabilities….”

EAC - VULNERABILITY INDEX MAPPING APPROACH: Supported through USAID/PREPARED Program

Source: VIA analysis supported by USAID/PREPARED Program partners (CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET and EAC Member states)

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Vulnerability Index Map FEWS NET

Food Insecurity Frequency map

EAC/PREPARED Program – VULNERABILITY INDEX MAPPING

Source: VIA analysis supported by CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET and EAC Member states

COMMUNITY BASED ADAPTATION ACTIVITY (CBA)

Objectives

1. Identify climate change “hot-spots” at community-level, their risks and adaptation strategies.

2. Show case climate change adaptation best practices in the region.

3. Support small scale pilot climate change adaptation project at community level

Practical field training and support

Lake Victoria Basin Commission – VIA Map

Goal: To Establish and enhance climate change risks adaptive capacities of

community groups in selected hot-spots in East Africa.

Ownership (formal agreements)

Data and information sharing (policies)

Data Rescue (DARE initiative)

Building sustainable networks

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HISTOGRAM OF RAINFALL STATION DATA SERIES IN UGANDA

TANZANIA DARE INITIATIVE (12/2015)

EMERGING CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

NEXT STEPS – POST COP21!

Build sustainable EAC - Climate Change Network

Agriculture & Food Security

Energy Health Water Disaster Risk Reduction

Enhance quality, quantity and applications of climate services in-line with WMO/Global Framework of Climate Services

FEWS NET is a multi-agency food security monitoring and assessment effort

EAC Implementing

Institutions

Support Technical

Teams

EAC-PREPARED

Building on existing local and international capacities

LEVERAGING ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS

For More Information:

www.eac.int

www.icpac.net

www.fews.net

www.rcmrd.org

http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews