climate-smart agriculture: food security in a warmer and more extreme world
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By Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. Presented on 25 October 2013 at the Swedish University of Agriculture Sciences (SLU). Watch the recording at http://youtu.be/krBoz2uLUV8TRANSCRIPT
Climate-‐smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more
extreme world Led by Strategic partner
Supported by
1. Warmer and more extreme? 2. Rising to the challenges? 3. Linking knowledge and
action?
Global surface temperature change (oC)
2003 2006 2009 2012
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Why the bother about warming?
How “SkepJcs” View Global Warming Glob
al su
rface tempe
rature cha
nge (oC)
How “Realists” View Global Warming Glob
al su
rface tempe
rature cha
nge (oC)
droughts
extreme coastal high water levels
heavy rainfall events
warm spells or heat waves
Extremes will intensify
local flooding
IPCC, 2012
Munich Re, 2011
Losses from weather-‐related disasters have increased
Overall Losses Of which insured losses
US$ billions (2
010 do
llars)
Young scientists may retire before global climate models are good enough for agriculture
“Substantial increases in the reliability of projections from General
Circulation Models (GCMs) are not expected any time soon”
Richard Washington, University of
Oxford
GCM errors were often larger than 2 °C for temperature and 20 % for
precipitation
40,000 downlo
ads
of data in 2012
How can we rise to the challenges?
2. Climate informaGon services and climate-‐informed safety nets
4. Policies and insGtuGons for climate-‐resilient food systems
1. Climate smart technologies, pracGces, and
porJolios
Meridian Ins+tute 2011
ProducGvity
MiGgaGon
AdapGve capacity
Climate-‐smart agriculture (CSA)
• Synergies and trade-‐offs
• Principles and guidelines
Developing climate-‐smart technologies: coffee-‐banana intercropping
1. Understanding and improving technology
2. Policy engagement
One women’s present is another
women’s future
1. IdenJfy climate analogues
2. Farmer-‐to-‐farmer visits
3. Local adaptaJon planning
1 January 2013
2. Climate informaGon services and climate-‐informed safety nets
OpportuniGes for managing the whole food system?
– BePer food security early warning? – Informing earlier intervenGon?
– Grain, fodder, seed banks?
Agriculture Insurance Company of India
12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured
weather index for a crop in an area
technological innovaJons to
generate weather data
• 2012 plans:
– Reconstruct historic weather
– Rainfall predictability in S. Asia
– Climate informaJon & advisory service case studies
– South-‐South knowledge exchange STATION BLENDED SATELLITE
Improving climate informaJon services
3. Low emissions development
Store C: trees, forest, grassland and soils
Lower GHG /kg food Reduce land cover
change
Cocoa intensificaJon on 56,423 ha = 151,700 ha forest
Sustainable intensificaJon
Heterogenous landscapes Mixed farming systems
Methods and equipment
Capacity strengthening
Protocol for GHG emissions in smallholder systems
Alternate-‐Weang-‐and-‐Drying (AWD)
30% water
25-‐50% GHG
Without compromising yield
What are the incenGves for miGgaGon acGons?
4. Policies and insGtuGons for climate-‐resilient food systems
Three examples: analysis and engagement
• Work with negotiators on the issues holding back agriculture in the UNFCCC
• Establishing a global index of a countries readiness for climate-smart agriculture
• Helping design Nigeria’s climate-smart agricultural policy
Research-‐informed development
Science-‐policy plaJorms
Index-‐based insurance
Climate informaJon services
Climate-‐smart
technologies
Local adaptaJon
plans
• Learning sites • Multiple partners
Scaling up • Policy • Private sector • Development
initaitives
Climate smart villages
h]p://www.agtrials.org/
20 crops
2483 trials
Agtrials: Assembling public data in a common portal
Going publi
c with data
Focusing on gender and social differenGaGon
The Work
In conclusion: Ø Climate smart portfolios Ø Climate information and
safety nets Ø Low emissions options
and financing Ø Policies for resilient food
systems Ø Evidence-based
development
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Twi]er: @cgiarclimate