climate science pitac computational science subcommittee tim killeen director, national center for...
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Climate Science
PITAC Computational Science Subcommittee
Tim KilleenDirector, National Center for Atmospheric Research
President-Elect, American Geophysical Union
19 October 2004
Community Climate System model
CCSM June, 2004 Workshop in Santa Fe:>300 participants, >30 universities, >50 institutions
High Performance Supercomputing at NCAR
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Peak TFLOPs at NCAR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04
IBM Opteron/Linux(lightning)
IBM POWER4/Federation(thunder)
IBM POWER4/Colony(bluesky)
IBM POWER4 (bluedawn)
SGI Origin3800/128(chinook)
IBM POWER3(blackforest)
IBM POWER3 (babyblue)
Compaq ES40/32(prospect)
SGI Origin2000/128 (ute)
HP SPP-2000/64 (sioux)
CRI Cray C90/16 (antero)
CRI Cray J90 series
Cray C90/16
HP SPP2000
SGI Origin2000
blackforest
WH-1
blackforestWH-2
ARCS Phase 1
blackforest upgradeSGI Origin3800
ARCS Phase 2bluesky
ARCS Phase 3bluesky expansion
Linux cluster “Lightning” commissioned October 2004, providing >12 teraflopsTotal for community use
SCD community computing still oversubscribedBy factor of 3!
The Earth System modeling Framework: A High-
Performance Framework for Earth Science Modeling & Data Assimilation
ESMF INFRASTRUCTUREintegrated system utilities
ESMF SUPERSTRUCTUREcoupling services
user-created model components
ESMF Architecturegridded components,coupling components,custom components
grids, transforms,communication kernel,timekeeping, …
Earth System Modeling Framework Rollout
GFDL FMS B-grid atmosphere
GFDL MOM4 ocean
GFDL POM or MOM4
NCAR CAM
NCEP/NCAR WRF
NCEP atmosphere
NCEP analysis
NCEP model
DAO fvCAMDAO analysis
NSIPP atmosphere
NSIPP ocean
LANL CICE
Earth System
Modeling Framework
Development
MITgcm ocean
Adoption
All JMC validation codes compliant - April 04
UCLA AGCM
LANL HYPOP
CLM
GSFC Global LIS
Early adopters of the ESMF
- Broad use - Enhancement- Maintenance
One of: GISS, COLA, IRI, JPL, LLNL, Colorado State, U.Illinois, Scripps, U.Miami, NOAA FSL, Florida State, Rutgers, ORNL, Air Force Weather Agency, U.Washington
11/04
8/04
1/05
14 major Earth system codes
Each is coupled to a code never coupled to before:
- 3 by July 03 - all 14 by July 04
Unprecedented software sharing ease among the
nation’s major Earth system models
NASA
NASA
NASA NASANSF
NSF
NSF
NSF
NOAANSF
NOAA
NOAA
NOAA
DOE
MIT
NASA
DOE
?
UCLAE
arly
ESTOEarth Science Technology OfficeJim Fisher
June 2004: UCAR/NCAR joins National Lambda Rail (NLR)
NCAR/SCD will serve: Colorado School of Mines, Colorado State University, University of Colorado at Boulder, University of Colorado at Denver, NOAA Boulder labs, University of Utah, and the University of Wyoming.
NLR provides 4 separate 10 gigabit-per-second pathways, extensible to ~40 total
CCSM IPCC Work Flow: Grid Computing?
Simulation of Recent Climate
Ninth Annual CCSM Workshop
Contributions to IPCC Fourth Assessment
• Three phases:– Pre-industrial (1870)– 20th Century (1870-2000)– Emissions Scenarios
• SRES Scenarios:
– Commitment (20th C. CO2)• 2000-2100 (5 runs)• 2100-2200 (1 run)
– A1B and B1 Scenarios • 2000-2100 (5 runs)• 2100-2200 Const (5
runs)• 2200-2300 Const (1 run)
– A2 Scenario• 2000-2100 (5 runs)
A1B
B1
Commitment
Ninth Annual CCSM WorkshopExtensions to Physical Climate System
Multi-Century Coupled Carbon/Climate Simulations
Net CO2 Flux (Pg C/yr)
• Fully prognostic land and ocean carbon
• “Stable” carbon cycle and climate over 1000 year control
• 21st century projections show lower CO2 concentrations than previous studies
• Challenge: understanding differences in projections due to interactive carbon
Surface Temp.
CCSM IPCC Data Integration and Distribution via GIS Tools
• 100 Terabyte Output
1. GIS: visualization and simple data manipulation
2. GIS analysis and mapping (interpolation, overlay with land use and demographic data, raster calculations, geographic analysis)
Carbon Assimilation
CO2 CH4
N2O VOCsDust
HeatMoistureMomentum
ClimateTemperature, Precipitation,Radiation, Humidity, Wind
ChemistryCO2, CH4, N2Oozone, aerosols
MicroclimateCanopy Physiology
Species CompositionEcosystem StructureNutrient AvailabilityWater
DisturbanceFiresHurricanesIce StormsWindthrows
EvaporationTranspirationSnow MeltInfiltrationRunoff
Gross Primary ProductionPlant RespirationMicrobial RespirationNutrient Availability
Ecosystems
Species CompositionEcosystem Structure
Watersheds
Surface WaterSubsurface WaterGeomorphology
Biogeophysics
Ene
rgy
Wat
er
Aer
o-dy
nam
ics
Biogeochemistry
MineralizationDecomposition
Hydrology
Soi
l W
ater
Sno
w
Inte
r-ce
pted
Wat
er
Phenology
Bud Break
Leaf Senescence
HydrologicCycle
VegetationDynamics
Min
ute
s-T
o-H
ou
rsD
ays-
To
-Wee
ks
Yea
rs-T
o-C
en
turi
esComponents Of Terrestrial Biogeoscience
Gordon Bonan
The Global N CycleThe Global C Cycle
Earth System Modeling
Preliminary focus on carbon and nitrogen cycle modeling across spatial scales, and interactions of these cycles with
the climate system.
Nitrogen Cycle in Earth System Modeling (cont.)
N forcing
Adapted from Summary for Policymakers, IPCC 2001
C flux
Legend
Tempsensitivity
N flux
AtmosphericCO2
VegetationBiomass
SoilOrganicMatter
AtmosphericN species
Coupled Carbon-Nitrogen dynamics• Strong feedback between decomposition and plant growth: soil mineral N is the primary source of N for plant growth.
• Can result in a shift from C source to C sink under warming.
NEE response to +1° C step change
(temperate deciduous broadleaf forest)
C-only model
Coupled C-N modelsink
sour
ce
Thornton, in prep.
Longer-term MissionsLonger-term Missions - - Observation of Key Earth System InteractionsObservation of Key Earth System Interactions
Terra
Aura
Aqua
Landsat 7
Exploratory - Exploratory - Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstrate TechnologiesDemonstrate Technologies
GRACE
PICASSO
Cloudsat
QuikScat
EO-1
ICEsat Jason-1
SRTMVCL
We Will Examine Practically Every Aspect of the We Will Examine Practically Every Aspect of the Earth System from Space in This DecadeEarth System from Space in This Decade
Triana
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
0.1
YEAR
1999 2000 2010
Daily Upper-Air Observation Countsused for operational purposes
Computational Demands for CCSM Science Increasing
Thanks to Jeff Kiehl/Bill Collins
Summary Effective, institution-to-institution, cyberinfrastructure
provision over the past 5 years has catapulted the US into international leadership in climate system modeling and analysis
Preservation of this leadership position requires augmented high-performance systems, dedicated to general domain arena
Climate Systems modeling is giving way to Earth Systems modeling with data ingestion and decision-support tools. Societal, regional, and international dimensions all increasing in importance with time.
DiscussionDiscussion