climate science & energy solutions
TRANSCRIPT
3
SCIENCE
CO2 concentrations are 40 percent higher than they were during the Industrial Revolution
CO2 concentrations likely haven’t been this high in millions of years
Scientists have long-known that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas
4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Pa
rts
pe
r m
illi
on
280 ppm
393ppm
1750concentration
2012concentration
+86 ppm
+64 ppm+26 ppm
+5 ppm
+76 ppm -68 ppm
-76 ppm
Coal
OilGas Cement
Land use
Land sink
Ocean sink
SOURCES
Source: Shrinkthatfootprint.com
SCIENCECONTRIBUTORS TO CO 2 CONCENTRATIONS
SINKS
5
SCIENCEHUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS
Cement Production (5%)
Burning Fossil Fuels(75%)
Agriculture/Deforestation
(20%)
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IMPACTSEXTREMES BECOME THE NORM
Increased strength and frequency of climate-related disasters
8 climate-related disasters in 2014 cost more than $1 billion
Existing trends are reinforced and perpetuated
Colder, wetter east coast
Hotter, drier west coast
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IMPACTS
Many emissions impacts are irreversible (within our
lifetime)
…and become harder to address the longer we wait
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METHANE RELEASE FROM MELTING TUNDRA
RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS
Melting permafrost could raise global temperatures by
as much as 1.5°F by 2100
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WATER VAPOR CAPACITY
RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS
For every 1° increase in temperature caused by CO2
emissions, water vapor will cause an additional 1°
increase
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SLOWING CARBON ABSORPTION BY OCEAN
RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS
Warmer, more acidic oceans absorb less (and
emit more) CO2
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CARBON MATH To stabilize concentrations at any level, human emissions must get close to ZERO
C O 2 e
EMISSIONSC O 2 e
CONCENTRATIONS
BUSINESS AS USUAL 450 PPM 650 PPM
GT
CO
2e
EM
ISS
ION
S P
ER
YE
AR
CO
2e
PP
M C
ON
CE
NT
RA
TIO
NS
0
30
60
90
120
150
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Graph data come from Climate Interactive’s C-ROADS model
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Gigatons of
CO2/year
Business as usual
2030 start2020
start2010start
Different pathways to 450ppm
Bigger drop over less time
Smaller drop over more time
THE COSTS OF DELAY
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HIGH ESTIMATEMETHANE LEAKAGE
LOW ESTIMATE METHANE LEAKAGE
L I F E C YC L E E M I S S I O N SVaried methane leakage during extraction affects the climate impact of natural gas
COAL
NATURAL GAS
Emits ½ as much CO2 as coal
…But methane leakage is a HUGE concern
SOLUTIONS
Can natural gas save the day?
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SOLUTIONS
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Solar (PV and thermal)
Wind (onshore and offshore)
Biomass
EnergyDigital
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SOLUTIONS
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Solar (PV and thermal)
Wind (onshore and offshore)
Biomass
Geothermal
Storage, CCS, small-scale nuclear
Small modular reactor (Hyperion)
Eos Energy Storage
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POLICY
EXPAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Decouple utility profits from the volume of electricity sold
Adopt Energy Efficiency Resource Standards for utilities
Enact steadily tightening performance standards for appliances and industrial equipment
Adopt “best in class” building codes
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POLICY
ACCELERATE RENEWABLES
Introduce and expand Renewable Portfolio Standards
Modernize grid operations
Fix the transmission system
Rethink utility business models
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POLICY
State Regulation
RPS, PUCs, building codes
Federal Regulation
Mileage standards, power plant regulations, oil/gas regulations, R&D
…FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
MP
G
U.S. Fuel Economy Standards
PassengerCars
Light-dutyTrucks
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POLICY
State Regulation
RPS, PUCs, building codes
Federal Regulation
Mileage standards, power plant regulations, oil/gas regulations, R&D
Congress
Comprehensive carbon policy
…FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES