climate science & energy solutions

47
1 CLIMATE SCIENCE & ENERGY SOLUTIONS

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1

CLIMATE SCIENCE &

ENERGY SOLUTIONS

2

SCIENCE

3

SCIENCE

CO2 concentrations are 40 percent higher than they were during the Industrial Revolution

CO2 concentrations likely haven’t been this high in millions of years

Scientists have long-known that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Pa

rts

pe

r m

illi

on

280 ppm

393ppm

1750concentration

2012concentration

+86 ppm

+64 ppm+26 ppm

+5 ppm

+76 ppm -68 ppm

-76 ppm

Coal

OilGas Cement

Land use

Land sink

Ocean sink

SOURCES

Source: Shrinkthatfootprint.com

SCIENCECONTRIBUTORS TO CO 2 CONCENTRATIONS

SINKS

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SCIENCEHUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS

Cement Production (5%)

Burning Fossil Fuels(75%)

Agriculture/Deforestation

(20%)

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IMPACTS

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NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

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FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y

COLD

1/3 of summers are colder than average

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FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y

COLD AVERAGE

1/3 are average

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FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y

COLD AVERAGE HOT

1/3 of summers are hotter than average

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FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y

1/3 1/3 1/3COLD AVERAGE HOT

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FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y

COLD NORMAL HOTCOLD (NEW) AVERAGE

HOT EXTREME HEAT

1/12 1/6 4/6 1/12

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DROUGHT IN ILLINOIS

EXTREME TEMPERATURES

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FLOODS IN BANGKOK

EXTREME TEMPERATURES

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BUSHFIRES NEAR MELBOURNE

EXTREME TEMPERATURES

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HURRICANE SANDY, ATLANTIC COAST

EXTREME TEMPERATURES

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PINE BEETLE DAMAGE IN THE ROCKIES

EXTREME TEMPERATURES

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IMPACTSEXTREMES BECOME THE NORM

Increased strength and frequency of climate-related disasters

8 climate-related disasters in 2014 cost more than $1 billion

Existing trends are reinforced and perpetuated

Colder, wetter east coast

Hotter, drier west coast

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IMPACTS

Many emissions impacts are irreversible (within our

lifetime)

…and become harder to address the longer we wait

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RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS1980 – 2012 ARCTIC SEA ICE MINIMUMS

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RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS1980 – 2012 ARCTIC SEA ICE MINIMUMS

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METHANE RELEASE FROM MELTING TUNDRA

RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS

Melting permafrost could raise global temperatures by

as much as 1.5°F by 2100

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WATER VAPOR CAPACITY

RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS

For every 1° increase in temperature caused by CO2

emissions, water vapor will cause an additional 1°

increase

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SLOWING CARBON ABSORPTION BY OCEAN

RUNAWAY FEEDBACK LOOPS

Warmer, more acidic oceans absorb less (and

emit more) CO2

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CARBON MATH To stabilize concentrations at any level, human emissions must get close to ZERO

C O 2 e

EMISSIONSC O 2 e

CONCENTRATIONS

BUSINESS AS USUAL 450 PPM 650 PPM

GT

CO

2e

EM

ISS

ION

S P

ER

YE

AR

CO

2e

PP

M C

ON

CE

NT

RA

TIO

NS

0

30

60

90

120

150

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Graph data come from Climate Interactive’s C-ROADS model

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Gigatons of

CO2/year

Business as usual

2030 start2020

start2010start

Different pathways to 450ppm

Bigger drop over less time

Smaller drop over more time

THE COSTS OF DELAY

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SOLUTIONS

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HIGH ESTIMATEMETHANE LEAKAGE

LOW ESTIMATE METHANE LEAKAGE

L I F E C YC L E E M I S S I O N SVaried methane leakage during extraction affects the climate impact of natural gas

COAL

NATURAL GAS

Emits ½ as much CO2 as coal

…But methane leakage is a HUGE concern

SOLUTIONS

Can natural gas save the day?

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SOLUTIONS

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Buildings

Freiburg, Germany (photo: Rolf Disch)

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SOLUTIONS

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Buildings

Transportation

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SOLUTIONS

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Buildings

Transportation

Industry

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SOLUTIONS

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Buildings

Transportation

Industry

Electric System

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SOLUTIONS

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Solar (PV and thermal)

NREL

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SOLUTIONS

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Solar (PV and thermal)

Wind (onshore and offshore)

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SOLUTIONS

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Solar (PV and thermal)

Wind (onshore and offshore)

Biomass

EnergyDigital

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SOLUTIONS

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Solar (PV and thermal)

Wind (onshore and offshore)

Biomass

Geothermal

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SOLUTIONS

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Solar (PV and thermal)

Wind (onshore and offshore)

Biomass

Geothermal

Storage, CCS, small-scale nuclear

Small modular reactor (Hyperion)

Eos Energy Storage

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POLICY

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POLICY

MANAGE FOSSIL FUELS

Phase out coal

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POLICY

Phase out coal

Get natural gas right

MANAGE FOSSIL FUELS

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POLICY

EXPAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Decouple utility profits from the volume of electricity sold

Adopt Energy Efficiency Resource Standards for utilities

Enact steadily tightening performance standards for appliances and industrial equipment

Adopt “best in class” building codes

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POLICY

ACCELERATE RENEWABLES

Introduce and expand Renewable Portfolio Standards

Modernize grid operations

Fix the transmission system

Rethink utility business models

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POLICY

…FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES

State Regulation

RPS, PUCs, building codes

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POLICY

State Regulation

RPS, PUCs, building codes

Federal Regulation

Mileage standards, power plant regulations, oil/gas regulations, R&D

…FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

MP

G

U.S. Fuel Economy Standards

PassengerCars

Light-dutyTrucks

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POLICY

State Regulation

RPS, PUCs, building codes

Federal Regulation

Mileage standards, power plant regulations, oil/gas regulations, R&D

Congress

Comprehensive carbon policy

…FROM MULTIPLE ANGLES

47THANK YOU W W W. E N E R G Y I N N OVAT I O N .O R G

@ E N E R G Y I N N OV L LC