climate risks and adaptive behaviour of paddy farmers …

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CLIMATE RISKS AND ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOUR OF PADDYFARMERS OF GANJAM DISTRICT IN ODISHA

R K PandaSenior Consultant, CTRAN Consulting Ltd, Bhubaneswar

[email protected]

DoI: 10.23862/kiit-parikalpana/2019/v15/i1-2/190174

ABSTRACTGanjam district is one of the coastal districts in Odisha has experienced a number ofclimate risks like cyclone, flood, drought, etc. in last couple of years. On October 12,2013, the district was hit by Cyclone ‘Phailin’. Subsequently there was a cyclone called‘Hudhud’ affected Odisha coastal districts in the year 2014. Last year during 2018,over 60 lakh people were affected by flood due to heavy rainfall triggered by Cyclone‘Titli’. Of the 22 blocks in Ganjam district, 13 were badly hit due to cyclone and floods.Added to cyclones, the state has experienced contrasting extreme weather conditionswhich include heat waves, droughts and floods. Like other parts of Odisha, Ganjamdistrict is also very much agricultural dependent. Due to erratic climate behaviour,farmers’ income is not found to be stable. Analysis of secondary time series datareveals that agricultural production cycle and actual rainfall cycle seems to be verymuch pro-cyclical in nature indicating that a farmer is continuously subject toproduction risks in a cyclical manner. Owing to such risks, farmers have adoptednumber of strategies like alternative employment, migration, cost cutting inagriculture, income diversif ication and change in cropping pattern to augment theirincome and livelihood. The study f inds that due to cost cutting measures farmershave adopted mechanisation. There is reportedly disinvestment in bovine animalparticularly bullocks, buffaloes and so also the cattle shed and harvesting yard. As aresult of that farmers are not managing the crop residues properly and there is largescale paddy straw burning by almost 70 percent of the overall paddy farmers whichfrom the environmentalists’ point of is against the environmental conservationparameters. The paper suggests that there should be more sensitisation programmesfor value chain development of paddy straw and against paddy-straw burning as it isagainst environmental conservation approaches.

Key Words: Climate change, Agriculture, Kharif paddy production, farming

1 Background

United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC)1 is that

climate change is the change that canbe attributed directly or indirectly to

1The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an internationalenvironmental treaty adopted on 9 May 1992 and opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio deJaneiro from 3 to 14 June 1992. It then entered into force on 21 March 1994, after a suff icient numberof countries had ratif ied it.

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human activity that alters thecomposition of the global atmosphereand which is in addition to naturalclimate variability observed overcomparable time periods. TheIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC)2 def ines climate changeas a change in the state of the climatethat can be identif ied by changes in themean and / or the variability of itsproperties, and that persists for anextended period, typically decades orlonger. The IPCC def inition ofvulnerability as the extent to whichclimate may damage or harm a system.It depends not only on a system’ssensitivity but also on its ability to adaptto new climatic conditions.3

Odisha is placed at the head of the Bayof Bengal where weather is formed. Soeven a slight change in the sea’sbehaviour can have an immediateimpact on the coast. The Bay becomesthe centre of low pressures causingheavy rains and cyclones in the sub-continent and especially in Orissa. Astudy published in Down to earthmagazine states that out of the last 100years, the state has been dis-aster-affected for 90 years: f loods haveoccurred for 49 years, droughts for 30and cyclones have hit the state for 11years. Since 1965, calamities are not onlybecoming more frequent but strikingareas that never had a vulnerability

record.4 Another study on Status ofAgriculture in Odisha, by Directorate ofAgriculture, Odisha, indicates that outof 52 years, only thirteen years have beennormal years and in all other years thestate experienced the impact of climateshocks. This study almost put the statewith a 75 percent probability of beingvisited by some kind of climate shocksfor any calendar year.

Disasters have a long-term impact, aspeople are forced to spend more of theirearnings on basics like home andagriculture. The already stressedecosystem is made even more fragilewith each disaster. And the poor livingon the margins of subsistence are forcedinto greater penury. With each disastertheir capacity to rebuild is reducedwhich is called climate inducedvulnerability of the farming community.About 70-75 percent of state’spopulation is rural and depends uponagriculture. The agriculture sectorcontributes about 16 percent of GSDPduring the year 2011-12, which has comedown from a level of 53 percent in 1980-81, with almost 60 percent of land underrain fed agriculture and with water-dependent paddy, as its main crop, theagriculture sector is particularlyvulnerable to vagaries of climate change.The normal rainfall of the state is1451.2mm out of which 75-80 percent isreceived from June to September by the

2 IPCC was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientif ic view on the currentstate of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts.3IPCC, 1995. Contributions of working group II to the IPCC second assessment report, IPCC-XI/Doc.4. IPCC Geneva.4Down to Earth, Thursday 11 June 2015

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impact of south west monsoons. Butdata shows that the rainfall hasdecreased to 1391.3mm in the year 2012,and it was 1007.8mm in the year 2002.The year 2015 is particularly signif icantfor long spell of drought and monsoonfailure. This has affected farmers of thestate.

In Ganjam district where extremeweather-related events have beenreported and claimed considerabledamages in recent years particularly aftersuper-cyclone added with periodicfloods, cyclones and droughts which hasresulted in large scale crop and otherdamages. Viewing that rainfed farmersare the most affected by these events asthey depend on rain-fed agriculture, thisstudy investigates farmers’ adaptivebehaviour in the light of actual risksexperienced and actual risk aversionattitudes undertaken by them duringlast three kharif paddy cultivations. It isin this background the study intends toexamine the following objectives.

Considering that climate is an importantinput of food grain production of thestate, the frequent climate variabilitymight have long term impacts on theproduction pattern of the main croppaddy, the study intends to assess theimpact of climate shocks on paddyproduction and behaviour of paddyfarmers in Odisha.

2 Objectives of the Study

• To assess climate risks historically inthe context of Odisha.

• To study the trend of paddyproduction in Odisha with specialreference to Ganjam district in Odisha

• To examine the overall impacts ofclimate variability on the adaptivebehaviour of farmers of Ganjamdistrict for continuance of farmingactivity.

3 Methodology

The paper is based on secondary as wellas primary data. Secondary data aremostly time series data which areanalysed to assess the climate variabilityin the state. As the discussion mostlypertains to the areas of climate change,more than 50 years data onclimatological factors like rainfallsituation is analysed by comparing theactual annual rainfall with that ofnormal annual rainfall. Percentagedeviations are correlated with droughtand flood like situations happened inthe state. Similarly, for analysing thepattern of change in agriculturalproduction and productivity, time seriesdata obtained from secondary sourcesis analysed. The adaptive behaviour ofpaddy farmers is studied by obtainingprimary data from 501 farmerhouseholds operating under rain fedagriculture conditions spread acrossGanjam, Chhatrapur, Khallikote,Beguniapada and Kabisurjya Nagar andKodala blocks in Ganjam district.Framers households from the selectedvillages were chosen by following thesampling criteria that the household isin farming operations for at least last tenyears. The detailed sample design is asper the following table.

Climate Risks and Adaptive Behaviour of Paddy Farmers of Ganjam District in Odisha


Table-1: Sample Design

Sl. Blocks No. of GPs No of No ofVillages Households

1 Beguniapada 2 (Beruabadi, Matha Sarasingi) 5 50

2 Chhtrapur 3 (Bhikaripalli, Bipulingi, Sundarpur) 10 85

3 Ganjam 3 (Khandadeuli, Palanga, Poirasi) 13 114

4 K S Nagar 2 (Kaniary, Subalaya) 10 101

5 Khallikote 2 (Dimiria, Kanaka) 10 100

6 Kodala 1 (Kalimeghi) 6 51

Total 13 GPs 54 501

4 Climate Change Scenario andtrend of paddy production inOdisha

Since time immemorial, paddy crop isf irmly rooted in the cultural practicesof Odisha people and it is commonlyperceived that paddy symbolises goddessLaxmi. The folklore of Odisha bearspaddy as their religion also. Agriculturein Odisha to a considerable extent meansgrowing paddy. Age-old social customsand festivals in Odisha have strongrelevance to different phases of paddycultivation: Akhyatrutiya in May-Junemarks the seeding of paddy,Rajasankranti in mid-June marks thecompletion of sowing,Garbhanasankranti in Octobersymbolizes the reproductive phase ofpaddy, while Nuakhaee and Laxmipujacoincide with the harvesting of uplandand lowland paddy, respectively.Makarsankranti in mid-January iscelebrated as Chaita Parab by the tribalpeople as by this time paddy is threshed

and brought to the granary.5 Thisamount to say that cultural practices areat the root of continuance of paddycultivation by the farmers of Odishadespite any type of contingencies.

In the last two decades only, on October29-30, 1999, Odisha was hit by a cycloneaffecting all coastal districts. The IndianMeteorological Department called it a‘super cyclone’ due to its high windvelocity of 170-185 miles per hour; itsunprecedented storm surge, which was16-23 feet high; and the torrentialrainfall over 48 hours, which causeddevastating floods in the major riverbasins. The intensity of the cyclonekilled more than 10,000 people, causedsevere economic devastation. Fourteenyears after the super cyclone, onOctober 12, 2013, Odisha was hit byCyclone Phailin, which wasaccompanied by a storm surge of 5 feetand heavy rainfall that caused extensive

5 Das S R (2012): “Paddy in Odisha”, Technical Bulletin, No-16, Los Baños (Philippines):International Paddy Research Institute.

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f loods in the major river basins.Subsequently there was a cyclone calledHudhud affected Odisha coastaldistricts in the year 2014. Last yearduring 2018, over 60 lakh people wereaffected by f lood due to heavy rainfalltriggered by Cyclone Titli. The f loodsituation in three south Odisha districts- Ganjam, Gajapati and Rayagada is grimas the water levels in major rivers likeRushikulya and Bansadhara havecrossed their danger marks, off icialsources said. Of the 22 blocks in Ganjamdistrict, 13 were badly hit due to cycloneand f loods. Blocks like Aska,Purusottampur and Sanakhemundiwere inundated by rainwater as well aswater from Rusikulya river gushed intothe villages. Added to cyclones, thestate has experienced contrastingextreme weather conditions whichinclude heat waves, droughts andfloods. The state’s f luctuating weatherconditions suggest that it is reelingunder climatic chaos.

Rainfall has been more erraticsincethe1960s,with below-normalrainfall across all districts beingrecorded for most years. The state’saverage annual rainfall from1901to 1950was1,503 millimetres. It is now 1,451millimetres, with about 84 percent ofrainfall received between June andSeptember (State Disaster ManagementPlan, Odisha, August 2013). The”normal” 120 days of monsoon rain hasshrunk to 60–70 days, and unusual

spikes in rainfall, with torrential rainfallof over 200–250 millimetres day, aremore frequent during the monsoon,frequently resulting in f loods. Thissituation has had a strong influence onagricultural crops.6 A heat wave is acondition of atmospheric temperaturethat leads to physiological stress, whichsometimes can claim human life. Thenormal temperature islessthan40°C.Whenthe temperatureexceeds that level, it is called a heat wave.When it reaches five or six degrees abovethe normal temperature, it is called amoderate heat wave, and at sevendegrees or more it is called a severe heatwave. In 1998 the state of Odisha facedan unprecedented heat wave situationin which 2,042 persons lost their lives.Although extensive awarenesscampaigns have largely reduced thenumber of casualtiessince1998, a goodnumber of casualties are still beingreported each year.7 The rainfallvariability in the state and kharif paddyproduction in the state during the period1961 to 2018 is shown in the table inAnnexure-1.

It is found that during the 58-yearperiod, there were hardly 15 yearswithout witnessing any type of climaterisks. For rest 43 years, there were somekind of climate risks in the form ofdrought or flood or cyclone or someother natural calamities. Even kharif2017 witnessed severe pest attack inmajor parts of Odisha. These are thereasons for which there is large scalefluctuation in paddy production. As it

6 OSCCAC (2015-16)7 Ibid



can be seen from the following chartthere is hardly any four yearly periodwitnessing continuous increase in paddyproduction. As a result of this farmers’economics is subject to continuousclimate risks. However, during a verylong period of time, the overall trend ofpaddy production shows an increasingtrend owing to various Govtinterventions like introduction of greenrevolution, recommended doses ofpractices and a number of paddypromotion programmes which hassignif icant bearing for which paddyproduction has dramatically increased

over a period of time. The regressionresults with paddy production asdependent variable explained by annualrainfall and time points out that witheach successive year, there is 0.73 lakhMT increase in paddy production andwith each 1 mm increase in rainfall, thereis 0.02 lakh MT rise in paddy production.Karl Pearson’s correlation coeff icient forpaddy production and rainfall iscalculated at 0.45 (t value critical twotail= 2.00 signif icant at 0.05 level) whichalso denotes positive correlationbetween the stated variables. The resultsare shown in the table given below.

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8 Dang, Hoa & Li, Elton & Bruwer, Johan. (2012). Understanding Climate Change Adaptive Behaviourof Farmers: An Integrated Conceptual Framework. The International Journal of Climate Change: Impactsand Responses. 3. 255-272. 10.18848/1835-7156/CGP/v03i02/37106.

Table-2: Regression output

5 Adaptation Behaviour of theFarmers on the basis of Sampledata

Due to the heavy reliance of thisagricultural sector on climateconditions, climate risks contribute andguide the climate change adaptationprocess of farmers and the combinedinf luence of socioeconomic andpsychological factors on their adaptivebehaviour. The adaptive behaviour ispartly contributed by psychological aswell as socio-economic factors thatexplains farmers’ decision-makingprocess regarding climate changeadaptation.8 Present section afterprof iling the sampled-out farmers bysocio-economic categories, delves into

actual climate risks faced and actualclimate risk aversion attitudesundertaken by them.

5.1 Socio Economic Category

Out of the total sample out farmers,majority of farmers are under OBCcategory and they constitute around 55.7percent followed by General and SCcategory of farmers. About 56.3 percentof the households are non-BPLhouseholds and the rest are BPLhouseholds. The classif ication of BPLand non-BPL households was done onthe basis of household possession ofration cards. If the household is havinga ration card is considered as BPLhousehold, else non- BPL household.With respect to education, about 56.5



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percent of the farmer heads of thehouseholds have primary level ofeducation and about 22.8 percent haveupto high school education. The extentof illiteracy is about 16.8 percent. Framercategory wise, about 54.7 percent aremarginal farmers and 31.3 percent aresmall farmers. Marginal and smallfarmers jointly account around 85.6percent. Semi medium and mediumfarmers jointly account about 11.2 percent.The proportionate share of large farmersis obviously very much insignif icant.This amounts to say that majority ofsampled out rain fed farmers in Ganjamdistrict are from OBC category of coursenon-BPL and small holder farmers.

5.2 Operated Land holding

The operated land holding of the samplefarmers takes into account their own

land added with share-in-land/ lease-in-land and subtracted with lease-out andshare-out land arrives at total operatedland. As it can be seen from thefollowing table, overall, the samplefarmers have 2.62 acres of land , 2.50acres of land and 3.0 acres lease out landand overall total operated area iscalculated at 3.25 acres of operationalland holding. In all the sample blocks,operational land holding of samplefarmers ranges between 3.0- 3.5 acresexcept Khallikote block where it isslightly lower to 3.0 acres. Overalloperational landholding of the samplefarmers may be rounded off to 3.0 acres.It may amount to say that the averagepicture operational landholding ofpaddy farmers is limited to 3.0 acresonly, typically representing small holderfarmers.

Table-4: Farmers’ by operational Landholdings.

5.3 Type of Climate risks Faced bythe Farmers

In order to examine farmers’ exposureto climate risks, they were asked on whattype of climate risks they had faced

during last three years. On the basis offarmers’ perceived climate risks, climaterisk intensity of the farmers wascalculated in terms of average no ofkharif paddy sessions for last three years.



Climate risks on the basis of farmers’opinion were classif ied under sevencategories spanning over moderatedrought, severe drought, moderateflood, severe flood, cyclone, pest attackand crop disease. As it is seen from thefollowing table overall intensity ofclimate risk for a period of 10 years’ iscalculated at 10 that indicates that thereis at least one climate risk for each of thekharif paddy session. Maximum andminimum climate risk intensity is foundfor cyclone and severe flood respectively.The extent of climate risk intensity is asshown in the chart given alongside.Obviously, as the sample farmers areunder rainfed conditions, only after

cyclones, moderate / severe droughts arefound to be of higher climate riskintensity and floods are of lower climaterisk intensity. Added to these risk factorintra crop weather variations alsocontribute to varieties crop diseases asstated by the farmers.

Table-5: Type of disaster faced during last three years (2016-2018)

5.4 Paddy farmers’ adaptive behaviour

The adaptive behaviour of the farmerswas recorded by asking them how dothey manage under a given scenario ofclimate risks being faced by them yearby year. As per their opinion, in lastcouple of years’ owing to the fall in

prof itability from the farming activityas a result of climate risks, most of thefarmers have adopted alternativeemployment opportunities at homeplace, resorting to migration andadopting farm mechanisation and tosome extent crop diversif ication.

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Alternative Employment: In thebackground of climate risks, the smallholder farmers are found to be employedas construction workers at the nearbytowns as well as employed in theMGNREGA works. It was indicated bythem that in recent years, constructionworks are also going on in their villagesdue to various Govt. schemes like IAY,Biju Pucca Ghar and National Housingscheme. Besides, number of new housesare constructed as a result of remittancesreceived by the migrant households.During interaction with the villagers itwas also found that foremost priority ofthe migrant households is constructionof a pucca house at village which iscontributing towards creation ofemployment opportunities at the village.

Migration: As year by year there areclimate risks in agriculture and expectedprofitability is very less, farmer heads ofthe household prefer to migrant with aview to generating some additionalincome for the household. As it can beseen from the following table the farmer

heads who undertake out migration,broadly they migrate in three importantdirections, which are classif ied underBerhampur- Bhubaneswar Corridor,Berhampur- South Corridor (Kerala &Chennai) and Berhampur- West Corridor(Mumbai, Surat and Gandhidham). Thetype of work undertaken by the labourersat the destination place is shown in thebox given alongside. Berhampur-Westcorridor is the predominant corridorfollowed Berhampur – Bhubaneswarcorridor and Berhampur- south corridor.

Table-6: Coping Mechanism



On an average the migrant farmers’ stayduration at the destination place is

calculated at around 140 days perannum.

Table-7: Migration Patterns of farmer heads

Note:* Calculated per Year, innumber of days.

Agro- Mechanisation:With a view tocompensate falling income andprofitability added with labour shortagedue to migration of farmer heads leadsto multiple adaptation behaviour of thefarmer households. First, the femaleheads of the households leadagricultural operations from landpreparation upto harvesting. Second, Aswomen heads most often leadingagricultural operations, they prefer toadopt mechanisation in agriculturethrough ploughing by using tractors andpower tillers and harvesting by powerthreshers that are available on rent in thevillages. Agricultural mechanisation isalso adopted with a view to expediteagricultural operations and as itbecomes quicker, there is better optionfor migration. Thirdly, as agromechanisation has taken placemassively particularly for paddy

harvesting and transplanting,maintaining drought bullocks by thefarmers households is no longer adominant practice and it was alos foundabout 70 percent of the farmerhouseholds in sample villages don’t havebullocks. So farmer is not required topreserve paddy straw for the whole yearto use as fodder for the bovine headspreviously he was owning. Fifthly, it hasfurther led to alternative use ofharvesting yard as well as cattle shed. Insome cases, there has beendisinvestment in these two distincthouseholds by the farmer households.Most importantly as about 70 percentfarmer households don’t have cattle,and they don’t require preservation ofpaddy straw they dump the straw atf ields for some period of time andultimately by the end of March burnthese straws while starting land

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Crop Diversification: Due to climaterisks, overall 11 percent of the farmers inthe study area have adopted cropdiversif ication. It was found that thefarmers previously doing paddy in highland areas have marginally shifted tomillet particularly ragi which is very muchdrought resistant. This is particularlypromoted by Odisha Millets Mission andclimate resilient crop promotionprogrammes run under FPOs/ FPCsfunctioning in the study area.

5.5 Key Findings

It is found that during the 58-yearperiod, there were hardly 15 yearswithout witnessing any type ofclimate risks. For rest 43 years, therewere some kind of climate risks in theform of drought or flood or cycloneor some other natural calamities.

Y- on Y basis, there is large scalefluctuation in paddy production.

There is hardly any four yearly periodwitnessing continuous increase inpaddy production. As a result of thisfarmers’ economics is subject tocontinuous climate risks.

However, during a very long period oftime, the overall trend of paddyproduction shows an increasing trend.

With each successive year, there is

0.73 lakh MT increase in paddyproduction and with each 1 mmincrease in rainfall, there is 0.02 lakhMT rise in paddy production. KarlPearson’s correlation coeff icient forpaddy production and rainfall iscalculated at 0.45.

Majority of sampled out rain fedfarmers in Ganjam district are fromOBC category of course non-BPL andsmall holder farmers.

Overall operational landholding ofthe sample farmers may be roundedoff to 3.0 acres. It may amount to saythat the average picture operationallandholding of paddy farmers islimited to 3.0 acres only, typicallyrepresenting small holder farmers.

Overall intensity of climate risk for aperiod of 10 years’ is calculated at 10that indicates that there is at least oneclimate risk for each of the kharifpaddy session.

Farmers are under rainfedconditions, only after cyclones,moderate / severe droughts are foundto be of higher climate risk intensityand floods are of lower climate riskintensity. Added to these risk factorintra crop weather variations alsocontribute to varieties crop diseasesas stated by the farmers.

preparations for the next kharif croppaddy. Such type of large-scale paddy-straw burning owing to mechanisationis major contributor for carbon dioxide

emission to the environment, whichrequires a further study to estimatevolume of carbon emission to theenvironment.



Owing to climate risks, farmers haveadopted alternative employmentopportunities at home place,resorting to migration and adoptingfarm mechanisation and to someextent crop diversif ication.

Migration of farmer heads as a partof adaptive strategy has led toincreased participation of women inagricultural operations, moremechanisation in agriculture forploughing, transplantation andharvesting.

Agro- mechanisation has led todisinvestment in drought bullocks,cattle sheds and harvesting yards the

distinct assets of the farmerhouseholds.

Such disinvestments has further ledto large-scale paddy- straw burningwhich is supposed to be an emergingcontributors for carbon dioxideemission to the environment inGanjam district.

6 Way Forward

It is high time to sensitise the farmersabout the harmful effects of paddy strawburning and equip farmers about valueaddition aspects of paddy straw, one ofmassive crop residues under paddycultivation.

ANNEXURE-ITable: Rainfall behaviour in Odisha

79Climate Risks and Adaptive Behaviour of Paddy Farmers of Ganjam District in Odisha

climate risks and adaptive behaviour of paddy farmers …

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