CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY IN THE CONTEXT OF BUILDING

SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION

Theme: climate change, vulnerability, resilience,

measurement, adaptation

Sesele Sokotela, National Soil Surveys Programme –ZARI/MoAL

09 Jan 2013_Ibis Gardens, Chibombo

Notes on context key terms Climate risk –implies a measure of lack of predictability

in climatic conditions, leading to looming catastrophic set of situations for biota

Vulnerability –a state of lacking the ability to withstand or overcome a challenging condition or situation

Resilience –an ability to withstand and overcome a set of challenging conditions and situations

Adaptation –positive set of intervention mechanisms or practices developed as part of the custom for perpetual and sustainable survival by biota species

Measurement –determination of a condition or state of being by quantification of a threshold or level of quantity in objects using defined units and means

Presentation contents Vulnerability and Resilience Research • Highlights from southern and eastern Zambia • Indiana/Princeton Universities collaborative research with a

spatial variability assessment (GIS) dimension Soil Organic Carbon Measurements • Soil Organic Carbon Quantification Estimates in the Trans-

frontier Conservation Area (TFCA) of Western Zambia • UN-REDD+ mechanism Programme and ILUA II Project in

Zambia Adaptation

• Conservation Agriculture • Agriculture, Biodiversity and Forestry interfacing

Introduction

Concerns about Climate Change (global warming) and its associated subsequent results of occurrence of adverse weather

conditions on Earth (droughts and floods, etc.) are receiving great attention by various quarters of human society with varying views from the scientific community, policy makers and local communities of people

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions to atmosphere are responsible (CO2 –an important culprit) Measurement for the amount of carbon (C) stored in soils (Soil Organic Carbon) is essential to help understand

dynamics of C cycling in terrestrial ecosystems (Biophysical variables) Socio-economic and Ecological systems vulnerability and resilience are also important to understand adaptation

factors

Importance of estimation of soil

carbon

Concerns about the rising quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere (0.5%yr-1)

Projected warming of world climate has hastened studies of Carbon (C) dynamics within known C pools emissions to the atmosphere (Lal et al., 2001)

IPCC, (1992) reported estimates of C fluxes to the atmosphere from land use changes amongst the most uncertain in quantifying C

Indications are that sinks for C, can be enhanced due to land use changes (e.g. forest re-growth, reforestation, CO2 fertilization and atmospheric N deposition effects (Watson et al, 1992; Hudson et al, 1994; Thornley et al., 1991)

Soil is recognised as one of the largest C reservoirs in the biosphere

In reported global C pools, SOC is about 2 to 3 times C more than in the atmosphere and terrestrial biota (Post et al, 1982; Eswaran et al., 1993)

Highlight results on “Effects of Agro-forestry plants in Soil Fertility Restoration and maize productivity in a degraded Miombo woodland in the Petauke district of eastern Zambia

Introduction

Vulnerability and Resilience of Social – Ecological Systems

research in Zambia being conducted to help elucidate issues pertaining to the mitigation of adverse effects of climate change in ecological systems

Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI)

Ministry of Agriculture and livestock (MoAL), in collaboration with the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) in conjunction with the Inter-University Research Institute Corporation and the National Institute for Humanities of Japan established a research site, Petauke in eastern Zambia

• Mwelwa village, area of Chief Sandwe of the Nsenga speaking people in the Petauke District, Eastern Province.

Purpose

study is aimed

to help add knowledge and find ways to remove conditions that undermine food security, soil ecology quality, and the natural environment health, in reference to climate change, with a particular focus for the local area or region, thereby provide for means to build both social and ecological resilience in the country

Objectives

Within Climate Change Context the study served as a trial and demonstration to evaluate the effectiveness of agro-forestry technologies and practices

in enhancing soil ecology resilience for crop productivity measured by the evaluation of effect of selected agro-forestry and green

manure plant species in soil fertility restoration demonstrate the named agro-forestry plants

species can restore and improve soil fertility conditions, and positively contribute to improved crop plant growth

measure soil property and characteristics

resulting from imposed agriculture cultural practices, like the use of agro-forestry technology

provide a platform foundation for assessment for socio-economic beneficial impacts that can be achieved by local

farming households on adoption of demonstrated technologies

Methodology

Locality approximately 400 km east of Lusaka Great East Road, Petauke District about 40 km to the north of the Petauke on the Ukwimi Road, at Mwelwa village in Chief Sandwe’s

area Selection criterion noted prevalent high levels of forest and soil degradation by preliminary studies on the physical ecology with application of Remote Sensing techniques and review of climatic, vegetation, geology, soils and land use

information available

land through local consultations with the traditional leadership and communities at

various appropriate fora e.g. meetings, about 20 ha land allocation for field research on a

relatively virgin site both RIHN and ZARI are at the site engaged in conducting field research studies presentation concerns the ZARI trial and demonstrations

treatments

six treatments

imposed, each replicated three times in a randomized complete block design (RCBD)

A Grilicidia sepium fallow (Gs) B Maize (Zea mays) continuous fertilizer

(MF1) C Native Forest fallow (NF) D Maize, no Fertilizer (MF0) E Mucuna pruriens (Velvet bean) green

manure fallow (BV) F Cajanus cajan (pigeon pea) fallow (Pp)

Soil measurement and sampling

each field plot 20m x20m

soils were sampled at two depths, namely, the top soil (0-20) cm, and subsoil (40–60) cm depths

Soil parameters analyzed for chemical and physical soil properties

pH, Bases (Ca, Mg, K, and Na), cation retention capacity (CEC), soil Organic Carbon (C%), total Nitrogen (N%), available Phosphate (P ppm), Particle Size Distribution (PSD), Bulk density (BD)

Land preparation

All cultivated had plots initial land preparation

cutting down and stumping trees found on the site

digging with hand hoes well before the onset of the rainy season in October

soil samples taken at the prescribed top and sub soil depths

Biomass estimation

Above ground plant biomass in the agro-forestry and native fallow plots was estimated

by measuring plant height

and stem girth (diameter) at ground collar level

Field Days

Purpose for hosting the field days

to demonstrate and disseminate improved agro-technology and soil fertility management information

for the local community

share a platform of understanding and appreciation of research activities conducted and promoted in the area

a first field day was held in March 2009

second field day was held in April 2011

to show case developments of the research trials and demonstrations being conducted at the research site

Results highlights

study area forms part of the eastern plateau

on eastern shoulder of the Luangwa Rift Valley ecology system

the study site is in Agro-Ecological Region IIa (east of the Luangwa River)

Mpika

Solwezi

Sesheke

Kaoma

Serenje

Kalabo

Chama

Mkushi

Mumbwa

Kasempa

Lukulu

Chinsali

Mwinilunga

Kalomo

Senanga

MufumbweZambezi

Lundazi

Kaputa

Kazungula

Isoka

Kabompo

Mansa

Mongu

Mbala

Nyimba

Itezhi-Tezhi

Shangombo

Samfya

Kasama

Chibombo

Chongwe

Mungwi

Kapiri Mposhi

Luwingu

Mporokoso

Petauke

Kafue

Choma

Lufwanyama

Mpongwe

Mpulungu

Chipata

Mwense

Kawambwa

Milenge

Monze

Mazabuka

Mambwe

Chilubi

Namwala

Katete

Chavuma Masaiti

Chiengi

Nakonde

Gwembe

Luangwa

Siavonga

Sin

azo

ngw

e

Nchelenge

Chadiza

Kabwe

Livingstone

Lusaka Urban

Chililabombwe

MufuliraChingola

Kalulushi Kitwe

Luanshya

Ndola

200 0 200 400 Kilometers

N

EW

S

Agro-Ecological Regions

District boundary

KEY

Source: Soil Survey, Mt. Makulu ChilangaDecember 2002

Scale 1: 2,500,000

Regions

I

IIa

IIb

III

LEGEND

Annual rainfall ranges between 750 to1000 mm

a crop growing period of 90-150 days

major soils are largely Lixisols, Luvisols, Alisols, Acrisols, some Leptosols, and Vertisols in low lands (Soil Survey Section, 1991).

Soil Classification

Initial soil characterization classified as Typic Plinthustalfs (Soil Survey Staff, 2000), or Plinthic Luvisols ( FAO, 1999)

soil profile comprises a darkish brown sandy clay loam topsoil, fine reddish brown subsoil and gravelly in the lower horizons below 90 cm depth in the pedon

Soil properties

the soils were low to medium in soil fertility

Soil reaction conditions were of strong to medium acidity (pHKCl 5.1 – 5.7)

low organic C content (<2.0 %),

low N and P content,

BSP low to medium

Sample soil properties at research site

Parameter Mean SD CV

Total N (%) 0.8 0.02 28.7

Total C (%) 1.24 0.47 38.0

pH (H2O) 6.3 0.2 3.5

pH (KCl) 5.5 0.3 5.2

Sand (%) 72.9 3.4 4.7

Clay (%) 12.6 2.5 20.1

Bulk Density (Mgm3) 1.3 0.1 8.6

Soil fertility status

soil fertility indicator parameters

measured at each research/demonstration plot in

top soil (0 -20 cm)

sub soil (40 -60 cm) depths

soil fertility condition (year 2010)

Topsoil Mean LSD SE

Total Carbon (%) 0.71 0.71 0.22

CEC (ppm) x

K (ppm) 185.6 60.5 19.2

Ca (ppm) ?

Mg (ppm) 135.6 70.4 22.3

Na (ppm) 38.9 18.7 5.9

P (ppm) ?

pH (CaCl2) 5.3 0.66 0.21

Subsoil Mean LSD SE

CEC (ppm) 10.6 3.3 1.5

Ca (ppm) 456 330.8 105.0

K (ppm) 197.8 66.5 21.1

Mg (ppm) 138.9 67.6 21.4

Na (ppm) 46.2 63.5 20.1

P (ppm) 9.8 7.1 1.3

pH (CaCl2) 5.4 0.43 0.14

Initial field soil condition

soil fertility field conditions showed no significant differences across the imposed treatments

soil types were relatively uniform in soil fertility

maize crop was imposed over all treatment trial field subplots

to appreciate effects of farming practice technologies (agro-forestry, etc.)

@50 % of the recommended fertilizer rate (mTF1/2)

@ and no fertilizer use (mTFo)

Maize Biomass at Harvest (Kg) Maize Biomass at Harvest (Kg) with half and zero fertilizer rates (mTF1/2 & Fo)

Plot no. Treatment Rep Block Biomass (mTFo) mTF1/2

1 B 1 9.81 37.14

2 C 1 12.65 33.65

3 E 1 5.14 30.66

4 F 1 20.12 43.24

5 D 1 14.76 39.53

6 A 1 21.28 50.16

7 F 2 10.53 31.88

8 B 2 12.84 37.28

9 E 2 6.28 45.06

10 D 2 9.18 28.18

11 C 2 3.72 17.9

12 A 2 21.24 33.7

13 F 3 12.58 44.02

14 D 3 8.4 25.02

15 A 3 14.32 48.28

16 C 3 3.92 33

17 B 3 13.08 37.56

18 E 3 10.46 37.64

Agro-forestry demonstration performance (@2 years)

Plant sp. C. cajan G. sepium N. forest

Height (m) 3.66 2.04 3.06

Girth (mm) 43.54 43.7 51.78

Trees growth performance at 2 years

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1

Technology practice

Heig

ht

(m)

C. cajan

G. sepium

N. forest

Trees diameter at stem ground collar

C. cajan

G. sepium

N. forest

Highlights from social-ecological Resilience and vulnerability Research in southern Zambia

(RIHN/ZARI Collaborative study)

Objective

The main objective is two-fold:

to gather detailed socio-economic data information on the identified local households in the community,

undertake some biophysical data through field experiments, to help guide not only intervention actions in the context of climate change,

but facilitate future government policy with regard to food security

Study site location

LAKE KARIBA (A)

ZAMBEZI ESCAPMENT

CHOMA PLATEAU

Weather Station installed @ sites A and C

AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION

Local Agricultural Production

Summary of results (Site A)

Site B Rainfall

Site C Rainfall

All sites showed above normal rain

Socio-economic factors

Body Mass Index for Men and Women

Conclusion

Observed precipitation in the rainy seasons showed different intra-seasonal variations.

Households and their communities do show remarkable local social resilience to shocks

Recommendation

Further studies are needed to clarify strategies to adapt to climate change and maintain food security

Highlights On Soil Organic Carbon

Quantification Estimates In The Trans-frontier Conservation Area Of

Western Zambia

Climate Change Programme in Collaboration with PPF, RSA

The Study Area

Fro the southern Africa sub-continent PPF’s Climate Change Programme aimed to assist host countries (Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe)

To provide an economic driver to help reduce deforestation in the TFCAs

restore degraded areas

and provide improved livelihoods for local communities of people

the initiative would also provides a platform for exploring means to benefit from the international carbon market

Pilot site for the Location maps showing the Kaza-Zambia TFCA Study Area

Because soil comprises a major source and sink for atmospheric CO2 the characterization, measurement and quantification of soil organic pools are of significant importance

Soil organic carbon is commonly characterized by various carbon components present in the soil The complexity and diversity of soil organic matter physical and chemical composition are recognized As such careful identification and selection of methods for the quantification and estimation of the content of SOC is critical

Study sites in western Zambia

The study site land area assessed constituted approximately 1.5 million hectares or about 15,000 km2 in size

The area stretched from Mulobezi in the east, to Sinjembela in the west, Sioma in the north, and Katima Mulilo to Imusho in the south. The Zambezi River bisects the study area

The vegetation ranges from open Burkea africana woodlands to tall, closed Baikiaea purijuga woodlands, Brachystegia spp. woodlands, Acacia spp. woodlands, open grasslands and floodplains on deep Kalahari sands (Hansen et al. 2002)

For a detailed description of vegetation, soils and geology also see Trapnell (2001), Edmonds (1976), and D.O.S. (1970)

Objectives

Soil carbon stock quantification has the main objective to estimate changes in soil organic carbon in

the study area serve as a means for designing and the development of a

methodology to help establish a threshold of baselines of carbon stock

quantification in the Kaza-Zambia Transfrontier Conservation Area (TFCA) in the Western Province of Zambia

As part of a development objective PPF provided means for conservation and management of vast

wilderness areas, add connectivity and robustness to ecosystems and contribute to the improvement of the livelihood of rural people

Methods

Conducted in the Kaza-Zambia TFCA in western Zambia from 18 May 2009 to 16 June 2009

multidisciplinary-participatory and collaborative exercise for carbon stock quantification in the area, and was spearheaded by the Peace Parks Foundation of South Africa

Zambia key participating and collaborating institutions comprised the Forestry Department (FD) and Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources (MTENR), presently, Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources , and

Environmental Protection (MLNREP) Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MoAL), formerly, Ministry of Agriculture

and Cooperatives (MACO)

The study focused development of Conservation Agriculture management practices Carbon sequestration consequences, especially, adaptation and development of methods and techniques for field sampling, data

capturing, and taking measurements of terrestrial carbon content in study areas

Thus, much effort was devoted to the development of methods to help estimate baselines for quantification of Soil Organic Carbon stocks in pilot study sites from western Zambia

Prevailing climatic conditions

Water balance diagram for Sesheke Temperature (oC)

Soil Organic Carbon Assessment

Calculation of total carbon five main pools may be identified, namely,

1) live and dead standing tree trunks,

2) tree parts excluding trunks, but including canopy and coarse roots (diameter >2 mm),

3) vegetation other than trees,

4) other woody debris and forest floor, and

5) mineral soil organic matter (including faunal and floral materials and roots <2 mm diameter)

Soil organic carbon measurements The current study, calculated C in successive soil layers of 0 – 5 cm, 5 – 10 cm and 15 – 20, respectively

Thus -a specified soil depth of 20 cm over the unit land area equivalent to one square kilometer

Mg mass value

Estimation of soil organic carbon For the TFCA pilot site study area of western Zambia the areal calculation (Grossman et al., 2000)

applying the general equation for summation of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 5 cm soil layers on an areal basis was employed equation:

SOC ₌ L1 x SOCP1 x p1 (1-V>21 )/100 + L2 x SOCP2 x p2 (1-V>22 )/100 + … • ____________________________________________________

10

• Where, SOC ₌ Soil Organic Carbon in Kg m-2 SOCP ₌ Soil Organic Carbon percentage (laboratory determined) L ₌ Thickness of the soil layer in cm (measured in soil profile) p ₌ Moist bulk density of the < 2 mm soil fabric (at 33 kPa suction V>2 ₌ Volume percent soil coarse fragments greater than 2 mm diameter for our purpose soil organic carbon is the mass of carbon stored in the soil per square kilometer

SOC ₌ MC ₌ Mg C km-2 to 20 cm • Where, SOC is soil organic carbon MC is Mass organic carbon storage in soil Mg C km-2 is 1000 g carbon mass per square kilometer or Kg of carbon in a land unit area of one sq.

km of the soil layer to 20 cm depth from the ground surface

Field soil sampling

Field soil sampling for carbon stock was conducted in the Kaza Zambia TFCA in the Western Province of Zambia across

50 sample plots randomly selected on local locations from

Mulobezi, Sesheke, Sioma, Sinjembela and Imusho, study sites

At each study site (Cluster)

several sample plots were visited and physically sampled as locations of study sites

Location of study site points

Cluster sites locations

The study sites were treated as sample clusters, namely,

1 Mulobezi,

2 Sesheke,

3 Sioma,

4 Sinjembela ,

5 Imusho

1

2

3

4

5

Soil properties

Soil Texture (Plots 11 – 21)

Soil Texture (Plots 31 – 43)

Dominance of the sand fraction, the fine and medium sand grain size was

consistent with the nature of the Kalahari sand parent materials from

which the local soils were formed Spaargaren, (1987) asserts that the whole sand fraction is quartz

Mulobezi sample data

Study Plot Study Site SOC (Mass Mg C /sq. km pH (CaCl2) Org C % N % Texture Class Elevation

1 MULOBEZI X 5.1 0.168482 0.18 Sand 994 2 MULOBEZI 1745.3 5.5 0.094022 0.012 Sand x 3 MULOBEZI 3702.4 5 0.216398 0.022 Sand x 4 MULOBEZI 4187.2 4.7 0.221488 0.026 Sand 973 5 MULOBEZI 4158.5 4.6 0.255563 0.02 Sand 971 6 MULOBEZI 2632.5 4.6 0.215467 0.023 Sandy Loam 994 7 MULOBEZI 6374.4 4.5 0.304993 0.032 Sand x 8 MULOBEZI 5904.6 5.1 0.295948 0.0501 Sandy Loam 960 9 MULOBEZI 3519.6 4.8 0.295948 0.028 Sand x 10 MULOBEZI 5088.1 4.6 0.333507 0.024 Sandy Clay Loam 1000

pH and SOC levels in study sites

Soil reaction SOC Levels

Result highlights

Sioma and Sinjembela with mean values of SOC about 2,373 and 2,650 Mg C km-2 _ 20 cm, respectively, had substantial levels of human

settlement activities In the Sioma area arable agriculture such as subsistence crop farming (maize, sorghum and pearl

millets cultivation) were prominent Sinjembela area, in addition to crop cultivation, cattle rearing were also an important farming

activity Mulobezi area (mean SOC content about 4,100 Mg C km-2 _ 20 cm) is well settled by local people, but a number of Protected Forest reserves were in existence and

the area is also an important regulated timber harvesting concession region The Sesheke area (3,210 Mg C km-2 _ 20 cm) proximity to a prominent urban center, and where protected forest reserves exist, timber

harvesting activities take a significant prominence A high SOC value (4,659 Mg C km-2 _ 20 cm) in Imusho area seems to be associated with low

levels of human settlement and forms part of the Sioma-Ngwezi National Park

It was observed that Land Use and Land Use Changes may have influence on Soil Organic Carbon of local areas

Recommendation

Similar comparative and verification studies be conducted in other areas than the KAZA

Trials and Demonstration research may be conducted involving local communities of people for adaptation productivity in prevailing environments

SOIL SURVEY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Introduction

Zambia is developing a national strategy and action plan to reduce deforestation and land degradation

In order to develop an effective national forest resources monitoring system, baseline data and information are needed to be in place to serve as reference levels

In this regard the United Nations Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (UN-REDD) programme for Zambia is undertaking an active implementation phase since its approval by the UN-REDD Policy Board for implementation in 2010

The effective implementation is supported by the U.N. Agencies (FAO, UNDP, and UNEP) as part of the partnership with the Government of Zambia

Main outcomes of the project

Strengthened capacity to undertake planning and implementation of Sustainable Forest Management and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (SFM & REDD) through:

better information provisions,

institutional capacity building, information dissemination improved multi-sector dialogue within the country and internationally

Outputs from the programme implementation are threefold: effective information dissemination and use improved methodology regarding : human resource capacity development, data capture and analysis, forest resources inventory, and provide information for sustainable forest management (SFM), monitoring of REDD, undertake carbon stocks inventory, facilitate the implementation of the REDD+ mechanism and ILUA II through : mapping and field surveys

Objectives

The main objective of the present assignment is to help estimate soil carbon stocks through the development of a soil survey design and methodology for conducting field soil samples collection, Define procedure for carrying out laboratory analytical tests, and undertake to facilitate soil data interpretations and

information dissemination for the implementation of the UN-REDD & ILUA II project under the

Forestry Department in Zambia And produce, a manual to serve as standard instruction to guide

soil carbon survey sampling design and laboratory analysis methodology

Manual for soil carbon survey assessment

A manual for soil carbon survey was designed as standard guideline for conducting assessments and monitoring of soil carbon is provided in two parts and includes the following main contents

Part I -field soil sampling procedures and Part II -soil laboratory analysis

methodological procedures

Procedural protocol

The Manual sets out the procedural protocol to be followed for consistency in measurement, reporting and verification concerning carrying out the inventory soil organic carbon stocks covering the entire country in Zambia

Developed Pre-proposal: Promoting Resilient Farming Technologies Against A Changing Climate Amongst Vulnerable Rural Farmers In Zambia

Goals and Objectives The overall goal of the project is to improve capacities

for farmers to fight against poverty and hunger in the nation through the adaptation of soil fertility and water management technologies and best practices available from agricultural research and extension services

Therefore, in the end the development and provision of improved agricultural technologies and sustainable use of soils, land and water resources are to help build capacity for rural farmers in poverty alleviation and achieving food security by interfacing Agricultuture, Biodiversity and Forestry

SOIL CARBON STOCK INVENTORY AND MONITORING: TRAINING AND FIELD MANUAL FOR SOIL SAMPLING

2012

Forestry Department LUSAKA

Thank You for Your Attention !