climate resilient communities of the barwon south west ... · figure 1: shaping climate-resilient...

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY

Climate Resilient Communities of the Barwon South West –

Phase 1

Regional Report

January 2014

Regional Report Climate Resilient Communities of the Barwon South West

January 2014

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Note to readers This report has been prepared to assist organisations in the Barwon South West Region to identify risks caused by future extreme weather events and changes to the climate. It should not be read as an adaptation strategy or a definitive reference on extreme weather events for the Region. Instead, it should be interpreted as a robust process to examine Council’s operational risks caused by such events. Following this report, regional projects will be developed and delivered by councils and partner organisations in the Region that will build resilience to reduce the severity and impacts of such events.

This project was funded with the support of the Victorian Government under the Victorian Adaption and Sustainability Partnership.


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Executive summary The stakes are high

In its 2013 Global Risk Report, the World Economic Forum identified failure of climate adaptation as the fifth biggest risk in terms of likely impact to the global economy. The second highest risk was water supply crises. In terms of likelihood, rising income disparity, unchecked greenhouse gas emissions, water scarcity and unmanaged ageing populations were all in the top five. Understanding and responding to climate change and extreme weather events is complicated by the interrelationships between, and dynamic changes taking place within, each of the above risk areas.

The extent to which a region is impacted by climate change and extreme weather events is a function of many interconnected factors. Some of these factors relate to inherent physical climate exposures. Others relate to the resilience of communities, the natural environment and the local economy to absorb, avoid or deflect these risks and in some cases, to turn them into opportunities.

The consequences of failure to respond to climate risks have been widely documented. In 2009 the Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group illustrated the macro impacts on water and food security and ecosystems (see Figure 1 below). This Working Group is a partnership between the Global Environment Facility, McKinsey & Company, Swiss Re, the Rockefeller Foundation, ClimateWorks Foundation, the European Commission, and Standard Chartered Bank.

Figure 1: Shaping Climate-Resilient Development: A Framework for Decision-Making, 2009. Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group

The Barwon South West Region (the Region) has already experienced extreme weather events. Such events include the 1983 Ash Wednesday Bushfires, El Nino induced droughts and the torrential rain of 1952 that saw floods in the Otway’s, parts of the Great Ocean Road washed away and flooding of the Barwon River, buildings in Geelong and the township of Barwon Heads. In conjunction with exposure to extreme weather events, regional characteristics also point to challenges in building resilience to climate change. Factors that contribute to this include:


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• A local economy that is heavily dependent on agriculture and manufacturing sectors, both of which require reliable supplies of water and energy. Agricultural productivity is sensitive to climate change1

• An abundance of natural environment including parks, wetlands and an iconic coastline that are susceptible to temperature and precipitation changes and sea level rise

• A limited number of critical infrastructure on which communities and industry depend. This includes the Great Ocean Road and electricity lines. Limited redundancy in infrastructure could result in the Region not being able to cope with shocks. For example, unlike cities, the Region has limited heat refuges in the form of air conditioned shopping centres for shelter during heatwave events.

The project

The Climate Resilient Communities of the Barwon South West project (the Project) is a joint collaboration between ten local governments and the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries. It involves the local government areas of the City of Greater Geelong, Borough of Queenscliffe, Colac Otway Shire, Golden Plains Shire, Surf Coast Shire, the City of Warrnambool, Moyne Shire, Corangamite Shire, Glenelg Shire and the Southern Grampians Shire. The Project is supported by a range of partners, including Barwon Water, Wannon Water, Corangamite Catchment Management Authority, Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority, G21 Geelong Regional Alliance, Great South Coast Group, the Western Coastal Board, Powercor and VicRoads.

The Project aims to assist municipalities and key partners to begin to understand and respond to risks and opportunities presented by future climatic changes and extreme weather events in two Phases.

Phase One’s objective has been to gather information and identify high priority themes that require additional work to increase the understanding of resilience to climate risks and be delivered in Phase Two.

Phase Two’s objective is to develop and implement projects that will mitigate the risks identified in Phase One. While the focus has not been committed to, it may include a range of activities to:

• Gain a deeper understanding of climate change impacts on key sectors (e.g. tourism and agriculture)

• Build capability within councils to manage climate change risks

• Further collaborate on opportunities identified in Phase One

• Develop detailed risk registers and adaptation plans (at council level).

The project was funded with the support of the Victorian Government under the Victorian Adaptation and Sustainability Partnership, with additional funding from participating councils and partner agencies.

1 The Garnaut Climate Change Review - http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter6.pdf


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Project approach

Phase One was undertaken as follows in five stages:

Phase One Stage Activities undertaken

Stage 1 • Vulnerability assessments for the ten councils and Region

Stage 2 • A planning and action review with consideration given to current preparedness and capacity to address climate change risks

• This included developing better practice criteria based on better practice research. Better practice themes were established in complying, engaging, assessing, responding and monitoring

• A health check was developed to gain an understanding of the ten municipalities and the Region’s overall maturity in preparedness and response to climate change adaptation. This health check can be used over time by councils to gauge their progression in preparedness and response to climate change risks

Stage 3 • A series of strategic consultative discussions to explore risks and possible adaptation responses within each Council across the Region

Stage 4 • Development of municipal reports and undertaking consultation with Project partners

Stage 5 • Facilitation of a regional discussion, with the development of a short list of the high priority actions for examination as part of Phase Two

• Development of the regional report.

The Project methodology used in Phase One aligns with the better practice adaptation framework as explained in Section 3 of this report. This adaptation framework provides an overarching process for how to develop an adaptation response to climate change risks.

This report

The purpose of this report is to provide a concise overview of the findings from Phase One of the Project from a regional perspective. Detailed findings and assessment results are provided in accompanying documents (i.e. appendices; mapping and data products for which soft copies have been provided to the Project’s PRG (Project Reference Group), partners and each Council; municipal reports (ten) and a Risk and Adaptation Template). This report does not seek to duplicate the specific and detailed content of these other documents and Councils are encouraged to read this report in conjunction with the materials outlined above.

Section 1 of this report outlines all the products which are outputs of this Project.


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Key findings from Phase One

Regional climate vulnerabilities

The Region’s vulnerability was evaluated through an assessment of exposure to future climatic conditions, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (that is the Region’s institutions, community, assets etc). Overall the Region is getting warmer and drier.

At a social level the populations of the major regional town centres of Colac, Hamilton Warrnambool and the suburbs of northern Geelong will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

At an economic level the primary industries within Colac Otway Shire, Golden Plains Shire and Surf Coast Shire as well as the energy and water demanding activities of the City of Greater Geelong will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

At an environmental level the natural environs of Glenelg Shire, Golden Plains Shire, Southern Grampians, Corangamite Shire and Colac Otway Shire will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

The Region will experience permanent inundation along its entire coastline, the townships of Barwon Heads, Apollo Bay, Port Campbell, Geelong, Portland, Port Fairy, Queenscliff, Torquay and Warrnambool will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

Adaptive capacity of the Region

The adaptive capacity of the Region’s councils was assessed through the use of a survey-based health check tool. The five categories that were investigated were: complying, engaging, assessing, responding and monitoring.

There is considerable scope for the adaptive capacity of councils across the Region to be improved. The strengths of the Region lie in the areas of legislative compliance and monitoring. All councils exhibit some form of monitoring at least in the form of a debrief after an extreme weather event. However, there is generally a lack of a formal monitoring and evaluation process.

Across the governance and engagement component of the health check, councils were more prepared through the documenting and communicating of chains of command for extreme weather events such as bushfires, storm surge and heatwaves. The downfall within the engaging criteria was the lack of embedding of adaptive actions into council processes and decision-making.

An interesting finding is that the Region has exhibited greater action around “responding” relative to “assessing”. A better practice approach would involve risk identification and assessment firstly being undertaken before identifying and implementing the most relevant response actions. However, in the Barwon South West Region, this is reversed. The activities undertaken as part of this Project will provide significant information and analysis on the risks to the Region which can now be used to underpin future decisions on adaptive actions.


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Municipality key risks and actions

During the municipal strategic discussions the ten councils identified 150 potential climate risk statements spanning economic, social and environmental spheres.

Many of these risks are largely outside the direct control of the participating councils and may result in impacts upon the wellbeing of each council’s residents and upon the councils’ own ability to operate and run its services.

The four most significant risks identified are as follows:

• An increase in extreme heat days

• An decrease in mean annual precipitation/rainfall

• An increase in the severity of precipitation events

• An increase in sea level

Further analysis of the risk statements developed during the municipal strategic discussions reveals that:

• Temperature increases had the highest proportion of significant risk statements (42 per cent)

• Precipitation risks represent 30 per cent of risk statements, with most relating to decreases in annual mean precipitation

• Sea level rise represents 23 per cent of risk statements

• The most at risk regional sectors are natural assets, infrastructure, the agricultural industry and community and council assets and services

• Further community vulnerability assessments and detailed site based climate resilience assessments for potentially exposed assets are recommended.

To address identified risks, generic adaptation options were identified by the participating councils during the strategic discussions. The key themes for these actions were:

• Amending internal council processes

• Increasing engagement and advocacy/championing within the community

• Increasing infrastructure resilience

• Investigating opportunities for resilient economic development

• Addressing knowledge and funding gaps

• Creating partnerships with others (e.g. government, private landholders, industry, research agencies).


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What do the outcomes of Phase One tell us about climate change risk and adaptation for the Region?

The challenges presented by climate change risks and the consequent need for adaptation action to build resilience across the Region have been determined during Phase One. Additionally, pathways have been identified to address these challenges.

The vulnerability assessment identified that the Region will become warmer and drier with coastal inundation across the entire coastline, with social, environmental and economic sensitivity hot spots in:

• Communities in regional town centres

• Primary industry across three Councils (Colac Otway Shire, Golden Plains Shire and Surf Coast Shire)

• Industrial activity in the City of Greater Geelong

• Ecosystems within half the Councils.

The planning and action review and the running of a health check across the Region identified that the Region has relatively established approaches for engagement, assessment and responding to extreme climate events. However this is not the case for broader climate risks or how these risks should be factored into strategic and operational governance, processes and documentation.

The strategic discussions, in which the vulnerability assessments and health checks were discussed, provided evidence that there was significant awareness amongst stakeholders of the need to develop adaptation responses. The implications of the vulnerability assessment and current level of willingness to respond to climate change risk were articulated in risk statements developed during the strategic discussions. In addition, a range of actions aimed at mitigating such risks and/or increasing preparedness and building resilience to climate change were also identified. A summary of these actions is outlined below:

• Further investigations and research to better understand impacts, vulnerabilities and sensitivities of communities, ecosystems and infrastructure

• Build awareness of climate change and extreme weather events within the communities of the Region including considering the adequacy of communication channels, how future demographics will impact sensitivities, and how economic sensitivities impact on community well being

• Engage and collaborate with service providers and industry to help them consider the findings of Phase One of the Project

• Integrate future climate projections into council processes and decision making frameworks (an essential first step being Asset @ Risk registers and the development of council level adaptation plans).


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The level of council stakeholder risk awareness observed during Phase One and the actions proposed are consistent with research and modelling on the implications of climate change for the Region undertaken through the vulnerability assessment. These implications are summarised below:

Area Implications

The Region’s ports

• High risk of damage or inundation of infrastructure from sea level rise and storm surges (e.g. Port of Portland)

• Consequent significant regional economic opportunities at risk if ports in the Region cannot expand and develop or the costs of doing so are prohibitive due to future climatic conditions such as sea level rise and associated storm surge.

Natural assets • The Region’s natural resources and assets include native timber, fisheries, wind resources, natural gas, coal, stone resources, deep-water access, national parks, landscapes and cultural heritage places

• The Region’s natural resources and assets will be significantly impacted by projected extreme events and climate

• There is a need for strengthened protection for these natural assets to protect the wealth they generate

• It will be essential to accurately map and model data of environmental assets and natural hazards with climate exposure and sensitivity data to provide accurate information for prioritisation of adaptation actions in this sector.

Agriculture - dairy

• The dairy industry in the Barwon South West is Australia’s largest, with over 1000 farmers, accounting for 50 per cent of the Region’s exports, 23 per cent of the gross regional product and 25 per cent of Australia’s overall dairy production

• As the Region becomes warmer and drier, the dairy industry will face challenges with farmers at risk of being forced to switch to grain feeding their herds, which may consequently lead to lower cattle weights and milk yields. This could lead to a loss of employment opportunities in the Region

• An opportunity for farmers to switch to cropping as it becomes a more viable agricultural activity in existing dairying pastures may arise and some negative economic impacts could be mitigated by the location of a significant amount of dairy activity in the Corangamite and Moyne Shire Council areas, which have the least economic sensitivity and greatest adaptive capacity in the Region

• Strong engagement with the dairy industry to understand how climate risks are being factored into long term business strategies and what role Councils could take is recommended.


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Area Implications

Agriculture - forestry

• The forestry industry in the Barwon South West is a significant employer in the Region

• As the Region becomes warmer and drier the forestry industry will face challenges that may negatively impact communities and the local economy through job losses, with declining yields through less and/or lighter logs being produced through lower growth rates from a warmer and drier climate and degrading soil conditions from erosion and salinity issues

• Plantations could be lost through bushfires

• The impact may occur in the highest environmentally sensitive areas of the Region

• Mitigating the risk to the forestry industry in current forest locations within the Southern Grampians and Glenelg Shire Council, which will have the coolest mean temperatures in the Region and least change in extreme heat events, will occur in these two Shire’s respectively.

Agriculture - cropping

• The cropping industry is a significant part of the agricultural activity of the Barwon South West

• As the Region becomes warmer and drier, challenges to cropping activities may arise with negative impacts on agricultural land from grassfires which could increase in frequency and intensity as well as worsening soil quality

• Such negative impacts may be compounded in cropping areas within the City of Greater Geelong, Colac Otway, Golden Plains and Surf Coast Shires as they have the highest economic sensitivity and least adaptive capacity

• Opportunities exist as the Region’s climate becomes warmer and drier, as some cropping activities may become more viable. Additionally opportunities for using broadacre cropping outputs as biomass for bio-fuels and bio-energy also exist.


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Area Implications

Tourism • Tourism is one of the Barwon South West’s major industries, supporting the Region’s economy and communities, supported by diverse natural and cultural assets

• As the Region becomes warmer and drier, with more extreme heat event days over 40oC and popular coastal towns exposed to inundation, the tourism industry may face new challenges

• Population movements from rural areas to regional centres and increasing tourist numbers could place greater demand on town services and infrastructure. As regional centres have the highest social sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity to changes in climate exposures, meeting these demands may present a significant challenge

• Areas with the highest environmental sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity such as coastal towns, the Grampians National Park and the Great Otway National Park are frequented by tourists which may place increasing pressure on the environment

• Tourism may decline as the natural attractions and infrastructure of the Region could be negatively impacted through events such as bushfires and coastal inundation

• The changing climate could also present opportunities to the industry including attracting visitors to warmer and drier coastal areas

• More research on the impacts of future demographic and tourist activity drivers linked to climate change will assist Councils in planning future service and resource requirements.

The Great Ocean Road

• The Great Ocean Road (GOR) is a key tourism attraction, route and link to Melbourne. It is an Australian National Heritage site

• The GOR is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge with a number of low-lying points along the coast e.g. Apollo Bay.

• The road is also potentially vulnerable to extreme heat events with exposure potentially resulting in road rutting and cracking, bridge expansion joint cracking which may cause transport delays and/or safety incidents, particularly in the event of bushfires in summer

• VicRoads, as part of the partner discussions in this project, highlighted that they were yet to undertake a comprehensive climate hazard assessment for the road.


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Area Implications

Regional plans and climate risk

• The Great South Coast Regional Strategic Plan (2012) recognises the risks to natural resources, environmental and cultural heritage assets and agricultural systems from the potential impacts of climate change, along with potential opportunities for economic diversification such as new industries

• It acknowledges that more information is needed on the likely impacts of climate change on existing and emerging industries across the Region to assist with activities such as land use planning and coastal hazard assessments

• It gives particular attention to bushfire risk, stating authorities should prioritise human life with regard to bushfire risk management however does not mention the current gap in data relating to bushfire risk and future climate or consider climate proofing infrastructure and economic development plans

• The G21 Geelong Region Plan (2013) is also cognisant of the impacts of climate change on the environment, water resources and natural assets and has designed a number of policy responses to mitigate these risks.

• In particular, the Plan has a focus on transport, energy, infrastructure, biological research and waste.

• A key response action, which has also been identified through this Project, is the establishment of critical thresholds, to determine the necessity of protection methods for infrastructure.

Through the delivery of Phase One of the Project, a number of key challenges were identified. These are outlined as follows:

• Unclear governance arrangements – roles and responsibilities are unclear across levels of government and between councils and partners, often with shared responsibilities and lack of control over key risks that stem from outside the control of councils.

• Limited resources to implement all identified actions, therefore creating the need for prioritisation of actions based on criteria that take into account the scale of impact of the action, how quickly the gain from the action can be realised, the resources and funds required to implement the action, and the level of innovation associated with the action

• Information and knowledge gaps on the:

– Thresholds and tipping points – connections between supply and demand for essential goods and services that need to be better understood to allow proper appreciation of risk likelihood and severity

– Mapping and modelling – this Project has involved some modelling and mapping for the Region, but there is further specific modelling and mapping that could be undertaken such as demographics and bushfire modelling incorporating climate change


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Regional partner discussion

A strategic discussion was held at a regional level with representatives from partner organisations and the Project Control Group (representing the Project Manager, Colac Otway Shire Council, the G21 and the Great South Coast reference groups).

As part of these discussions, participants identified a range of risks arising from the expected future climate events, which relate to financial impacts, tourism, water access and quality, regional ecosystems and biodiversity, and infrastructure.

The table below summarises these risks:

Risk theme Risk examples

Financial impacts • Increased costs from needing to build resilience to increased temperatures, coastal inundation

• Reduced economic growth from warmer and drier climatic conditions

Tourism • Community expectation of coast access however increased restrictions may occur due to coastal inundation

• Loss of tourism and associated income where coastal inundation occurs (e.g. caravan parks, tourist assets/infrastructure)

Water access and quality

• Decreased availability of water through lower precipitation, increased evaporation and transpiration which is compounded by increased water needs/demand (mainly irrigation and outdoor) in a warmer and drier climate

• Lower water quality and yield as a result of bushfire

Regional ecosystems and biodiversity

• Negative impact on ecosystem services through warmer and drier climatic conditions (e.g. bushfires and loss of habitat and species)

• Increased risk of saline and acid sulphate soil problems

Infrastructure • An increased risk of damage from bushfire

• Damage to roads from warmer and drier conditions and coastal inundation

As the interdependencies of such risks need to be understood for prioritisation of actions and for responses to be meaningful, the interdependencies between social, environmental and economic risks were explored at a high level during the regional discussion. Primary events such as extreme heat events may cascade into a multi-dimensional problem and therefore actions should be developed with consideration given to such interdependencies.

Additionally, participants identified potential actions that could be further considered during the process of development of an adaptation plan.


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The common themes across the actions are hazard mapping, risk and resilience assessments, governance, analysis on the impact of past events and development of case studies. These themes were discussed and prioritised as part of the Project Reference Group meeting on 11 November 2013 to develop a list of priority projects for the Region.

Recommendations for regional priority projects

Based on the five stages conducted in Phase One a list of prioritised projects has been developed for the Region. The project themes deemed of highest priority by municipal and regional stakeholders, in order of priority, are as follows:

1. Analysis of extreme events – costs, impacts and stress tests:

• Regional case study

• Standardised reporting of the consequences of an extreme event at an organisational level e.g. a template which includes costs, resources required to recover, what happened, etc

2. Identification of hot spots along the Great Ocean Road and other key roads (e.g. flooding, inundation, extreme heat, etc) and prepare a response plan

3. Risk identification and assessment:

• Climate risk assessment

• Assets @ Risk register

• Climate adaptation plan

4. Mapping of the extent of sensitive agricultural areas

5. Sectoral studies into impacts and opportunities:

• Tourism

• Environment

• Coastal management

• Agriculture

6. Land use planning - share better practice in embedding climate resilience in council land use planning across the Region

7. Internal capacity building through climate modelling training e.g. SimClim training

8. Study into the resilience of the water systems in unserviced water areas

9. Modelling of bushfires incorporating future climate change impacts

10. Embed climate risks and considerations into key regional and partner strategies, plans and programs.

These projects are aligned and designed to address risks across key themes including council assets and services; economic impacts; agriculture; community health and wellbeing; infrastructure; and bushfire. By addressing such risks through adaptation actions, the Region will work towards increasing its resilience to climate change and extreme weather events.


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Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. The Barwon South West Region ........................................................................................... 6 3. A leading approach to adaptation ........................................................................................... 9 4. Regional vulnerability assessment ....................................................................................... 13 5. Current adaptive capacity of the Region .............................................................................. 35 6. Municipality strategic discussions ....................................................................................... 39 7. What does this all mean for the Region? ............................................................................. 47 8. Regional partner strategic discussion .................................................................................. 52 9. Regional priority projects ..................................................................................................... 63 Appendix 1 – Better practice research ........................................................................................ 71 Appendix 2 - Vulnerability assessment background and guidance ............................................. 77 Appendix 3 - Climate risk and adaptation template ..................................................................... 83 Appendix 4 – Municipal risks by sector ....................................................................................... 84 Appendix 5 – Process for prioritising regional projects ............................................................... 93 Appendix 6 - Glossary ................................................................................................................. 97 Appendix 7 – References .......................................................................................................... 100


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1. Introduction The need for action The changing nature of our climate and rise in extreme weather events is acknowledged both nationally and internationally as a growing risk. In its Global Risks Report 2013, the World Economic Forum identified the environment and need for resilience as one of its three major risk cases.

In recent years the Barwon South West Region (the Region) has experienced a number of extreme weather events, ranging from flooding and storms through to extreme heat, often resulting in bushfires.

For example, the Southern Grampians experienced extensive bushfires in early 2013 as well as bushfires across the Region in 2011. There have been storm surges and subsequent flooding along parts of the Great Ocean Road such as in 2009. Flooding due to extreme rainfall events has occurred in numerous locations including the Kennett River and Gellibrand River in Colac Otway and along Mt Emu Creek in Corangamite in 2010 and 2011. In addition the Region has experienced heatwaves in 2009, 2013 and more recently in early 2014 when record temperatures were experienced. These are just a few examples of the weather events across the Region and shows that the Region is already experiencing some of the events investigated and forecast in this project.

The variety, frequency and geographical spread of these events, combined with projected future climatic conditions, highlight the urgency for the Region to build resilience and adaptive capacity into the future. There is broad recognition between councils, service providers and industry in this Region of the importance of building the resilience of communities, the environment and industry to better cope with a harsher future.

In the Victorian context, there are specific pieces of legislation which include a range of compliance obligations that are relevant to building resilience to climate change and emergency management. These Acts include the Emergency Management Act 1986, Country Fire Authority Act 1958, Public Health and Wellbeing Act 2008, Water Act 1989, Water Industry Act 1994 and the Electricity Safety Act 1998.

Councils are required to create a Health and Wellbeing Plan within 12 months of council elections. The Plan must consider climate change, and subsequently be incorporated into the council or strategic plan. Additionally, climate change and its potential impacts must be taken into account as part of the decision making process under a range of Acts, including those covering catchment and land protection, coastal management, environmental protection, flora and fauna and water.

The most notable legislative response in relation to climate change adaptation across Australia is around emergency and fire management. Councils have a number of requirements placed on them through statutory instruments in order to prevent and manage fires and emergencies. This is through the appointment of relevant officers, committees and the development of prevention/management plans.

Figure 2: Stevenson Falls access bridge following flooding of the Gellibrand River in 2010


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But compliance is not enough. To better manage these climatic risks, the Victorian Government introduced its first Climate Change Adaptation Plan in 2013. This recognises that Victoria’s local governments have an important role to play in climate adaptation. The Government is renewing its commitment to its partnership with the local government sector through the Victorian Adaptation and Sustainability Partnership – Supporting Local Climate Resilience (formerly the Victorian Local Sustainability Accord).

“Adaptation is about increasing public and private resilience to climate risks through better decisions about managing our built and natural environment and taking advantage of opportunities. Victoria’s liveability is defined by the health and beauty of our natural environment, the quality of our infrastructure and the strength of our economy. Changes in our climate may put each of these assets under pressure if we don’t act to protect them.” (Victorian Government, 2013)

Actions on resilience building as recommended by better practice also include:

• Incorporating the latest climate change risks within existing risk management frameworks

• Leveraging community consultation and engagement processes to build awareness of risks and challenges

• Considering climate change resilience building within community programs

• Building climate risk into infrastructure and building investment.

The project and stakeholders The Climate Resilient Communities of the Barwon South West is a collaborative project (‘Project’) between 10 Councils, the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries and a range of partners that have come together to:

• Increase their understanding of climate exposures and vulnerabilities within the Region; and

• Develop prioritised actions that lead to greater climate resilience.

The 10 Councils involved are Glenelg Shire Council, Southern Grampians Shire Council, Moyne Shire Council, Warrnambool City Council, Corangamite Shire Council, Golden Plains Shire Council, Colac Otway Shire Council, Surf Coast Shire Council, City of Greater Geelong and the Borough of Queenscliffe. A range of organisations with a presence in the Region were identified as project partners who have an interest in the outcomes of the Project and have a high potential to participate in collaborative actions. The project partners (‘the Partners’) are Barwon Water, Wannon Water, Corangamite Catchment Management Authority, Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority, G21 Geelong Regional Alliance, Great South Coast Group, the Western Coastal Board, VicRoads and Powercor. The partners have contributed financial and in-kind support to the project including participation in regional discussions on risks and opportunities for collaboration in implementing adaptation actions.

Approach The broad objectives and approach of the Project is illustrated below:

Phase One: Understanding climate risks to the Region and identification of priority actions

Phase Two: Deliver priority projects to manage the risks identified in Phase One.

Phase One is the focus of this report. It includes the information gathering and research activities that guide the identification of high priority themes for progression in Phase Two. Phase One consists of the following:


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a. Conducting a vulnerability assessment based on climate exposure modelling in two time periods – 2030 and 2070 to understand how temperature, precipitation and sea level rise may impact communities, the environment and the local economy (with sensitivities and adaptive capacity assessed).

b. Facilitating workshops to disseminate findings, and consider risks flowing from, and potential responses to, the vulnerability assessment.

Phase One’s objectives were to:

• Raise awareness of future climate conditions amongst projects stakeholders

• Explore implications for communities, ecosystems and water catchments, Council properties and infrastructure, private and commercial assets and interests

• Identify potential high priority actions as next steps to investigate, validate and implement in Phase Two.

It is important to note that whilst risks and potential actions were explored in Phase One, this was undertaken at a high level and this does not replace or negate the need for each council to undertake a risk assessment and adaptation planning exercise individually to produce a more comprehensive climate risk register, assets at risk register and climate adaptation plan. Products and recommendations on activities have been included in this Project to assist the Councils with taking the next essential steps (e.g. climate risk and adaptation template, better practice adaptation framework, etc).

Scope

Phase One has been conducted in a staged approach, as follows:

Stage Description

Stage 1 - Vulnerability assessment

Defined the frequency and intensity of future climatic events through collecting and modelling the most up to date national and international climate data. A sensitivity and adaptive capacity assessment to provide an understanding of the risks to municipalities through a series of accepted vulnerability layers.

Stage 2 – Planning and action review

Established better practice in climate change adaptation and building resilience, identified current status of adaptive capacity and risk via surveys and a series of ‘health checks’.

Stage 3 – Strategic discussions Facilitated a discussion within each municipality and with Regional partner organisations on forecasted impacts, current responses and local and regional opportunities.

Stage 4 – Municipal reports and partner consultation

Developed municipal reports with high level resilience roadmaps and fostered consultation and engagement with key regional partner organisations.

Stage 5 – Regional report and forums

Finalised overall report on Regional activities and discussed next steps for phase two of the project.

Table 1: Project stages


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Project governance The project is managed and overseen by the following two groups:

Project Control Group (PCG) – this group provided Regional strategic guidance, overall direction, decision-making and oversight of the project. It was made up of representatives from Colac Otway Shire Council, the Project Manager, the G21 Reference Group, the Great South Coast Reference Group and the Department of Environment and Primary Industries.

Project Reference Group – the role of this group was to act as an advisor and provide recommendations to the PCG, facilitate access for the project to organisational and other networks and provide in-kind and financial support. This group comprised all Councils and project partners.

Reports This is the Regional report which contains the findings of the project at a Regional level as well as the collaborative actions and opportunities identified by Project Partners and Councils. This report contains the following sections:

• Section 1: Introduction

• Section 2: The Barwon South West Region – an overview of the Region encompassing its social, economic and environmental characteristics

• Section 3: Vulnerability assessment – the projected changes to climate exposure (temperature, precipitation, sea level rise) and sensitivities (economic, social and environmental) for the Region

• Section 4: A better practice approach to adaptation – the better practice adaptation framework used to underpin the approach to the project, as well as an overview of the research into better practice criteria

• Section 5: Municipality strategic discussion – summary and outcomes of the strategic discussion workshops held with the municipalities

• Section 6: What does this all mean for the Region?

• Section 7: Partner Regional discussion – summary and outcomes of the Regional partner discussion workshop held with the project partners

• Section 8: Regional resilience roadmap – overview of next steps to progress the development of the Region’s adaptive capacity

• Section 9: Regional priority projects – summary of the potential projects that could be undertaken in Phase Two which aim to address the key risks arising from the projected changes to the Region’s climate

The modelling and mapping undertaken as part of this Project and included in the Regional report includes:

• Climate exposure (temperature, precipitation and sea level rise)

• Sensitivity (economic, social and environmental)

• Baseline maps for economic and environmental layers

• Extreme heat analysis for summer across the Region

• Sea level rise inundation map for the Great Ocean Road


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• Critical infrastructure (electricity, water, roads, etc) overlays for the temperature and precipitation maps.

In conjunction with this report, there are individual municipal reports, which contain the findings and recommendations of the Project specific to each municipality engaged in this Project. The individual municipal reports are complementary to, and should be read in conjunction with, the Regional report.

Each municipal report includes a series of products which Councils can draw upon to shape their approach to building climate resilience. These products are:

• Resilience roadmap – A set of detailed actions, tailored for each Council, that can be undertaken to help build their adaptive capacity and resilience to future extreme climate events

• Health check template – to monitor and review the Council’s progress on an ongoing basis in building climate resilience

• A climate change adaptation plan template and guidance, which provides Councils with a tool to develop a detailed, tailored adaptation plan, based on the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities

• Risk assessment matrix - a pre-populated risk matrix (150 risks) for the Councils to assess risks that they face due to extreme and future climate events. This matrix can be used as a tool in a robust risk assessment process as part of the adaptation plan development process

• Data sets in GIS layers which consist of:

– Sensitivity (social, economic and environmental)

– Exposure (temperature and precipitation)

– Sea level rise

– Information data from partners

• Vulnerability dashboards (exposure and sensitivity).


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2. The Barwon South West Region 2.1 Overview Understanding the impact of climate change on the Region requires an appreciation of the social, environmental and economic profile within the Region. This section provides detailed analysis on the characteristics of the population, the natural and built environment and the local economy. This information was used at the Council and Regional level to facilitate discussions on risks flowing from climate change.

2.2 About the Barwon South West The Region is a diverse and vibrant part of Victoria, stretching from the tip of the Queenscliff Heads to the border of South Australia. It encompasses the local government areas of Greater Geelong, Queenscliffe, Colac Otway, Golden Plains, Surf Coast, Warrnambool City, Moyne, Corangamite, Glenelg and the Southern Grampians.

Figure 3: Municipalities of the Climate Resilient Communities of the Barwon South West project

The Region is renowned for its stunning natural environment, thriving tourism industry and lifestyle opportunities. It also supports a strong manufacturing sector and is a major agricultural base with the largest dairy production in the country. However, the Region has experience with extreme weather events. Fire, flood and drought have all had significant impacts on local communities, industries, economies and the environment in the past and these kinds of events are expected to become more frequent and more severe into the future.

2.3 Regional profile The Region has its own unique characteristics. The following profile provides a snapshot of the social, economic and environmental nature of the Region and is important in providing context for the risks and opportunities that have been identified. It also assists with the interpretation of the findings from the vulnerability assessment - social, environmental and economic sensitivity and adaptive capacity, for the Region.

Table 2 below provides an overview of key information for the Region including characteristics of local demographics, the natural and built environment and the economy.


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Characteristics Information

Overview

o Population

o Location

o Major cities

The Region is located in the south west of Victoria, Australia. It stretches from the tip of the Queenscliff heads at Port Phillip Bay in the east to the border of South Australia in the west, and from the Southern Ocean coastline up to the southern tip of the Great Dividing Range in the north. The region is home to approximately 350,000 people and includes some of Victoria’s fastest-growing municipalities, including the City of Greater Geelong, Victoria’s second-largest city by population, and the key regional centres of Warrnambool, Portland, Hamilton and Colac.

Natural environment (physical)

o Prominent physical features

o Key waterways

o Proximity to sea (indicates increased flood risk)

o Topography (water table)

o Vegetation (higher quantity leads to bushfire risk)

The Region spans over 3.2 million hectares and is characterised by a varied natural environment which is home to some of Australia’s most unique and rich landscapes. It features nearly 40 per cent of Victoria’s coastline, which may expose the Region to significant adverse impacts due to sea level rise and erosion caused by extreme climate events. This risk may be compounded by the social and economic importance of the Great Ocean Road, which runs along the length of the Region and which is a significant tourist drawcard to the area.

The Region contains a range of national parks, state parks, forest parks and reserves including the Great Otway National Park, Grampians National Park, Lower Glenelg National Park, Mt Eccles National Park and the Brisbane Ranges National Park. Each of these reserves support a range of threatened species and vegetation community. The Region also contains many valuable wetlands, including the RAMSAR-listed Lake Corangamite.

Social environment (community)

o Spatial distribution

o Age (elderly people more prone to heat waves)

o Family structure

o Income (low income people or families are less resilient)

o Education

Approximately 52 per cent of the regional population live in urban areas and the remainder in rural areas. Population is forecasted to remain relatively constant over the next decade, although the eastern parts of the Region are expected to experience strong population growth as people establish ‘lifestyle properties’ within easy commuting distance of major regional centres such as Geelong, Torquay and Warrnambool. The Region displays an ageing population profile, and the population distribution is skewed by the loss of rural youth to urban centres pursuing educational and employment opportunities.

There are also pockets of entrenched disadvantage in the Region, and overall the Region has lower income earners than the Victorian average. Although the Region has relatively high employment levels, Year 12 completion rates are lower than the Australian regional average and the Region has a higher proportion than average of people requiring day-to-day assistance due to a disability. Low performance against these socio-economic indicators may indicate a potential difficulty to adapt to more frequent extreme weather events into the future.


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Characteristics Information

Built environment

o Spatial distribution

o Number and type of dwellings

o Roads, rail and other transport infrastructure

o Assets

o Major community assets (hospitals, schools, etc)

The vast majority of the housing in the Region is separate housing, owing to the predominantly rural profile of the Region. In terms of infrastructure, the Region has numerous road transport links to other parts of the country via the Princes Highway, Hamilton Highway and Glenelg Highway. The Region also has a standard gauge rail network linking Geelong to other major centres and the Avalon Airport near Geelong which has obtained approval to support international services.

There are established industrial centres at Geelong, Warrnambool and Portland. Bulk ports in Geelong and Portland enable the Region to process and handle oil, grain, woodchips, alumina, mineral sands and fertiliser. Major health and educational facilities such as Deakin and RMIT universities and other vocational colleges are located throughout the Region.

Economy

o Gross Regional Product

o Key industries

o Major employers

o Forecast growth

The Region is underpinned by a strong agricultural sector. Dairy in particular is responsible for 50 per cent of the Region’s exports, accounting for about 23 per cent of the gross regional product and 25 per cent of Australia’s overall dairy production. Other agricultural activities in the Region are also significant, such as forestry, which provides 20 per cent of Australia’s forestry plantations. Along with forestry and fishing, agriculture accounts for approximately 9 per cent of regional employment.

Manufacturing is also a major industry. The major export from the Region is aluminium, which is smelted and shipped at Alcoa’s two refineries located at Point Henry and Portland. Other significant manufacturing in the Region is in the processing of primary products and resources, particularly dairy, seafood and meat processing. Other major industries in the Region include tourism, retail, energy, construction and health care and social assistance.

Table 2: Regional profile

The regional profile provides important contextual information on the Region. It also provides a deeper understanding of the project outcomes in terms of the risks and opportunities identified as well as the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of particular geographic areas.


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3. A leading approach to adaptation 3.1 Overview This section provides details of better practice in adaptation planning in the form of a recommended adaptation framework and supporting global case studies.

The framework supports the development of robust climate adaptation planning responses and reflects the accumulated lessons learnt from projects around the world. A reconciliation between the framework and the Project’s Phase One activities and outputs is provided so that Phase One can be seen in the context of the entire recommended journey for developing adaptation plans.

Global case studies were researched to identify better practice characteristics that informed and supported the criteria for the initial Health Check assessment on Councils’ current maturity in adaptation responses. These are provided in Appendix 1.

3.2 Adaptation framework

The adaptation framework, pictured in Figure 4 below, provides the overarching structure of better practice actions, tools and outputs involved in a comprehensive response to adaptation. This framework consists of two main stages: climate risk and vulnerability assessment and climate adaptation planning. We have highlighted in Figure 4 which specific components of this better practice framework have been covered in this Project and to what extent.

The framework is based on the following:

• Better practice adaptation work by ICLEI Canada, UKCIP2 and NOAA Coastal Services3; and

• The Australian Climate Change Risk Management Standard4.

The ICLEI Changing Climate, Changing Communities: Guide and Workbook for Municipal Climate Adaptation is a compendium of resources that provide a milestone based framework to assist local governments in the creation of adaptation plans to address the relevant climate change impacts associated with their communities. This milestone-based framework is considered as leading practice in adaptation. We have added to this framework for the purposes of this Project – drawing out and adding vulnerability and embedding actions as required in each of the five steps of: (1) initiation, (2) research and modelling, (3) planning, (4) implementation and (5) monitoring and review.

Although climate change adaptation is a complex process, this stepped framework provides a methodology for adaptation planning. It should be noted that although presented sequentially, the milestone framework is not necessarily linear; rather, it can be an iterative process and also councils can, and have been found, commencing their adaptation process at any step. There is no singular way to approach climate adaptation, by definition it requires a response to local impacts, and as such any plan must be tailored to a council and its community. The ICLEI Guide and Workbook are particularly recommended for councils wanting to make a start as it contains more than seventeen practical tools to guide each adaptation step. Likewise, the UKCIP Adaptation Wizard provides a framework and resources needed to prepare an adaptation strategy. It is a practical guide on how to adapt, taking organisations through a very similar five step process.

2 UK Climate Impacts Program (www.ukcip.org.uk/wizard/ ) 3 International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives – Canada (http://www.icleicanada.org/) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center (https://csc.noaa.gov/) 4 Australian Standard - Climate change adaptation for settlements and infrastructure – A risk based approach (AS 5334-2013)


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Figure 4: Climate Risk and Adaptation Planning Framework: Phase One of the Project focused on the first stage of this milestone framework - climate risk and vulnerability assessment.


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The findings and recommendations presented in this report address or partially address the actions in Initiate (step 1) and Research and Modelling (step 2). This connection is illustrated in the diagram below:

Figure 5: Relationship between project stages and adaptation framework

Table 3 below details the elements of the Adaptation Framework that have been addressed through Phase One activities of the project:

Step 1: Initiate Step 2: Research and Modelling

Actions • Initiate research on changes to the climate

• Initiate assessment of climate change impacts

• Refine impacts and consider service areas for each

• Vulnerability assessment

• Exposure assessment

• Risk assessment and inventory (partially complete)

• Initial assessment of existing adaptation actions in terms of complying, engaging, assessing, responding and monitoring

• Strategic discussion workshops

Tools

• Health Check • Risk template

• Current response survey

• Current responses inventory

• Risk and vulnerability assessment

• Climate exposure modelling

• Risk inventory (partially complete)

Table 3: Alignment of project stages to the first section of the adaptation framework

CLIMATE RISK AND

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT [Steps 1 &2]

Stage 1 - Vulnerabilty assessment

(exposure and sensitivity assessments)

Stage 2 - Planning and action review(health check)

Stage 3 - Strategic discussions

(risk assessment and inventory, strategic

discussion workshop)

Stage 4 - Muncipality reports and partner

consultation (partial risk inventory, climate

exposure modelling and sensitivity assessment)


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3.3 Better practice research A key component of this Project was research into better practice examples to define leading responses in climate change adaptation and building resilience. These examples are detailed in Appendix 1 and are drawn from a variety of international, national and local better practice climate change adaptation case studies. These are grouped by the following key better practice criteria:

• Complying

• Engaging

• Assessing

• Responding

• Monitoring.

This better practice research has been used as a basis for the health check of each Council’s current adaptive capacity across each better practice theme.

This research has also been used to inform the project more broadly and ensure that learnings from projects and organisations around the world are considered, and incorporated where relevant, into the Project.

The references for these are provided in Appendix 7.


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4. Regional vulnerability assessment One of the key components of this Project was to undertake a vulnerability assessment for the Region. This will assist Councils and partners in developing a clear understanding of future climate events in the Region.

4.1 Concept of vulnerability Vulnerability refers to the degree to which the Region is susceptible to changes in the climate and its potential impacts. The components of vulnerability include a combination of the following aspects – exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, coupled with the potential impacts of a changing climate (refer to Figure 6).

Figure 6: Concept of vulnerability

Exposure (1)

This refers to changes in the climate – temperature, precipitation and sea level. The potential impact is the change in conditions that results in risks associated with heat waves, drought, flooding, wind, hail, cyclones, bushfires and relative humidity. Figure 9 provides an overview of the climate effects under consideration for this Project.

As part of this regional vulnerability assessment an agreed series of changes to temperature, precipitation and sea level rise (where relevant) have been modelled and mapped to provide an indication of the greatest exposure for the Region.5

Sensitivity (2)

This refers to the responsiveness of a community, land use activity or a natural system to its physical location. This includes the proximity to low lying coastal areas and the overall topography.

As part of this regional vulnerability assessment social, economic and environmental sensitivity have been modelled and mapped to provide an indication of areas with the greatest sensitivity across the Region. By examining the sensitivity it allows regional stakeholders to identify important tolerances, trigger points and thresholds across the Region.

Adaptive capacity (3)

Adaptive capacity is the potential to reduce vulnerability to climate risk. A region’s ability to adapt or manage changes in climate is determined by its ability to withstand loss or damage or to recover from the impact.

5 Appendix 2 provides an overview of the climate exposure modeling assumption used for this assessment.


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As part of this regional vulnerability assessment social, economic and environmental adaptive capacity have been modelled and mapped to provide an indication of areas with the greatest adaptive capacity across the Region.

Vulnerability (4)

Overall vulnerability takes into account the exposure to specific climate effects as well as the social, economic and environmental sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the municipality.

Figure 7 provides an overview of the better practice approach being applied6, whereby sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicator layers are combined with the climate exposure data to provide an understanding of the overall vulnerability of the Region. This vulnerability information is then used to inform the risk assessment process to ensure material risks are being addressed.

Figure 7: Overview of approach taken in determining vulnerability

4.2 Concept of resilience The concept of resilience focuses on the elements that reduce vulnerability. The higher the resilience (less damage and effective recovery), the lower the vulnerability. Conversely, the higher the vulnerability, the lower the resilience (more exposure to loss and damage).

Resilience refers to the ability and capacity to withstand, recover and adapt from stress. As such, it is a measure of how much disturbance from a changing climate a system or community can handle without losing its functionality. This implies that a council has the ability to anticipate and plan according to projected and current climate events. Therefore, the ability to avoid potential damage will be a critical factor in increasing resilience to a changing climate.

6 This approach is consistent with vulnerability assessment methodologies applied by CSIRO’s Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability in the Sydney Coastal Councils Region, Griffith University’s Unsettling Suburbia: The New Landscape of Oil and Mortgage Vulnerability in Australian Cities and the Local Government Association of South Australia’s Guidelines for Developing a Climate Change Adaptation Plan and Undertaking an Integrated Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment.


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4.3 Our changing climate The effects of a changing climate are a close memory with recent floods and bushfires leaving trails of destruction across all regions including the Barwon South West. Observational data from the past century reveals significant changes in and surrounding Australia, with the climate system changing faster than expected.

Figure 8: Flooding of Curdies River, 2010

Managing Australia’s climate risks

Australia is among the developed countries most vulnerable to climate change. Our climate is highly variable and predisposed toward extreme weather events, and our ecosystems are finely balanced and often unique. Most of the country’s population lives in coastal cities exposed to rising sea levels and connected by infrastructure exposed to the full range of weather conditions. Climate change will have direct economic costs for Australia that need to be managed.

Coming Ready or Not: Managing climate risks to Australia’s infrastructure

The Climate Institute 2012

Global average temperature measurements indicate that the earth’s surface is warming; the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is rising, impacting sea levels (through the interaction of glaciers, ice caps and atmospheric water vapour). Although climate varies year to year, it is clear that the overall average global temperature trend is upward.

The dynamic nature of our climate system indicates a need to focus attention on how to adapt to these changes and understand the implications. Primary climate effects are defined as changes in:

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Sea level rise.


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Secondary climate effects are defined as changes in:

• Bushfires

• Drought

• Flooding

• Cyclones

• Wind

• Hail

• Storm surges

• Relative humidity.

The interrelationships between these climate effects are outlined in Figure 9.

Figure 9: Climate effects used to determine exposure

4.4 Current climate and trends

Australia

Since 1950, the Australian average temperatures have increased by 0.9°C with significant regional variations. Trends indicate an increase in the number of hot days and nights and a decline in the frequency of cold days and nights.

Since the 1950s most of eastern and south western Australia has experienced substantial rainfall declines, while in contrast, north-west Australia has become wetter (mostly during summer) during this period, both in intensity and frequency.


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Global sea levels have risen by around 10cm from 1920-2000 at the Australian coastal sites which are monitored. Substantial warming has also occurred in the three oceans surrounding Australia, particularly off the south-west coast and in the Indian Ocean7.

Victoria

Victoria experiences a wide range of climatic conditions due to the varying landscape of the state. Over the period of 1950-2007, daily maximum temperatures have increased by about 0.8°C while daily minimum temperatures have risen by only half as much.

Victoria experienced an exceptionally hot and dry decade during 1998 to 2007, where the average daily maximum over the decade was 0.6°C warmer than the 30-year average, while the average daily minimum was 0.2°C warmer.8

Barwon South West

The Barwon South West is made up of two catchment regions, the Glenelg Hopkins Region and the Corangamite Region.

Glenelg Hopkins Region

The climate of the Glenelg Hopkins Region climate is characterised by hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters, specifically:

• Average maximum summer temperatures are around 22-24°C near the coast and elevated areas, whilst further inland the temperature range increases to 25-27°C

• In winter, the average maximum temperatures range from 12-14°C and frosts are common away from the coast

• Average annual rainfall ranges from 500mm per year (near Lake Bolac) to 910mm (near the Cobboboonee Forest), the winter has a higher winter rainfall

• Key characteristics of this Region include the consistency of rainfall – on average there are 129 days each year where at least 1mm of rain falls. 9

Climatic trends for this Region during the last decade (1998-2007) are summarised as follows10:

• The average annual temperatures in the Region were 0.2°C warmer than the 30 year average, with summer and winter showing the greatest increase in average temperatures (0.3°C)

• The average annual number of days over 30°C increased (by three days)

• The average annual number of days over 35°C increased (by two days)

• The average number of frosts increased (by three days)

• The average number of cold nights increased by four per year. This may be a result of changes in cloud cover associated with the drought

• The Region’s average rainfall was 10 per cent below the 30 year average

• Decreases in rainfall were greatest in autumn and winter, whilst average summer rainfall showed a small increase

7 http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/pastchange.php 8 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment. 2008. Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary. 9 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2008, Climate in the Glenelg Hopkins Region. 10 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2008, Climate in the Glenelg Hopkins Region.


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• There were 14 fewer rainy days each year.

Corangamite Region

The climate for Corangamite Region is characterised by mild to warm summers, specifically:

• The average maximum average temperatures are around 22-24°C near the coast and in the Otway Ranges, whilst further inland the range increases to 25-27°C

• In winter, the average maximum temperatures are around 12-14°C with frosts (which are rare near the coast)

• Annual rainfall average for the Region is 773mm (exceeding 1400mm in parts of the Otway Ranges), generally rainfall is greatest in winter and spring

• On average there are 136 days each year where at least 1mm of rain falls11.

Climatic trends for this Region during the last decade (1998-2007) are summarised as follows:

• The average annual temperatures were 0.3°C warmer than the 30 year average, with summer and winter showing the greatest increases (0.4°C)

• The average annual number of days over 30°C increased (by three days)

• The average annual number of days over 35°C increased (by two days)

• There were ten fewer cold nights and three fewer frosts on average per year

• The Regions average rainfall was 12 per cent below the 30-year average; the decline was greatest in autumn and winter, while average summer rainfall showed a small increase

• There were 14 fewer rainy days each year.12

4.5 Projected climate exposure

Australia

Mean and extreme temperature projections

Consistently, there is a rise in mean temperature across all regions of Australia coupled with an increase in extreme heat events (days over 35oC).

Total and extreme precipitation projections

Across Australia there is a variable change in total precipitation, notably there is a decrease in precipitation (drying trend) across southern and eastern Australia, and an increase (in rainfall) across central and northern parts of Australia. Although these southern and eastern regions will experience an annual decrease in total rainfall, there will be an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events (over 50mm event).

Sea level rise projections

Coastal areas will be vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise in different ways, in large part due to the topography, or elevation, of the landscape.

11 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2008, Climate in the Corangamite Region. 12 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2008, Climate in the Corangamite Region.


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A large portion of Australia’s coastline is low-lying with strong influences from tidal changes and storms. The majority of Australian beaches have been stable because the sediment supply has been sufficient, however with the predicted sea level rise this will change. With the predicted rising sea levels there will be an accelerated rate of erosion along the coast, which would lead to the receding of beaches and erosion of the land.

OzCoasts13 data predicts that uncontrolled climate change could result in a global sea level rise of 1 metre or more between 2050 and 210014 and more intense storms threatening coastal housing and infrastructure.

The eastern seaboard shores are typically low-lying beaches and coastal regions that have low tidal ranges. This region is also highly developed and populated and is susceptible to periodic high-energy cyclonic activity and high tides.

A summary of the projected changes in climate across Australia is outlined in Figure 10.

Figure 10: Projected changes in climate across Australia

Victoria


Victoria is expected to warm at a slightly faster rate than the global average, especially in the north and east of the state. By 2030, annual average temperatures are expected to increase by around 0.8°C (with warming likely to be greatest in spring and summer).

13 OzCoasts is a publicly accessible online database with a web-based interface that provides comprehensive information about Australia's coasts (including its estuaries and coastal waterways) to natural resource managers, marine scientists, planners, policy makers and the general public. This information and data helps to generate a better understanding of Australia's coastal environments. The content of OzCoasts represents the collaborative efforts of more than 100 coastal scientists from a wide range of government agencies and universities. 14 http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/search_data/map_search.jsp


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By 2070, the average annual temperature could increase by 1.4°C (under a lower emissions growth scenario) or by as much as 2.7°C (under a higher emissions growth scenario).

As well as changes in average temperature, the number of hot days (days over 35°C) will increase in both frequency and intensity. The largest increases are expected in inland areas, while the smallest changes can be expected in coastal regions. Additionally, changes to the annual average number of frosts will also decrease across the state15.


By 2030, the annual average rainfall is expected to decrease by around 4 per cent. With the decrease being more prominent in winter and spring, while it is likely heavy rainfall will increase in summer and autumn.

By 2070, the annual average rainfall is likely to decrease by 6 per cent (under a lower emissions growth scenario) or by as much as 11 per cent (under a higher emissions growth scenario)16. In addition to likely decreases in average rainfall, Victoria is also expected to experience an increase in the intensity of the highest 1 per cent of rainfall events. Therefore, there will be more dry days but the days when it does rain will be wetter and more intense. It is likely that these changes will be more prominent in autumn and winter17.

As well as decreases in total rainfall, evaporation is expected to increase, enhancing the overall drying trend18.

Sea level rise projections

Global sea levels are not rising equally and this variation also occurs along the Victorian coast. Regions along the Victorian coastline that are considered highly exposed include the Western Port Region of Victoria.

Monitoring stations at Lorne and Stony Point in Victoria have recorded rises of 2.8mm per year and 2.4mm per year respectively since 1991 (National Tidal Centre, BoM, 2006).19

Future Coasts

The Future Coasts Program (being collaboratively led by the Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries and the Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure) is a $13.7 million investment the Victorian Government is taking in response to climate change, to help Victoria better understand and plan for the risks associated with sea level rise and storm surge.20

A key aspect of this program is that it provides mapping and guidance tools for stakeholders (including local government) to gain a greater understanding about the potential risks from sea level rise along the Victorian coast. These tools include the Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset (see Box 1) and the Victorian Coastal Hazard Guide and Digital Elevation Model data - which are currently available on the Program’s website.21

15 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment. 2008. Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary. 16 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment. 2008. Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary. 17 The State of Victoria, Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability. 2012. Foundation Paper One, Climate Change, Victoria: the science, our people and our state of play. 18 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment. 2008. Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary. 19 http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/124935/Sea-Level-Rise-Factsheet.pdf 20 http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/future-coasts 21 ibid


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Box 1 - Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset

The Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset provides a high level assessment of the potential risks from sea level rise and storm surge at a state-wide to regional scale, for four different time periods (2009, 2040, 2070 and 2100). The 2100 sea level rise combined with a storm surge event has been used for the purposes of this report.

The intention is for this tool to be used by stakeholders to assist in strategic planning and risk management at a regional scale as an indicative assessment of which areas are likely to be at risk over different timeframes.

The Victorian Government is also working closely with local government and other project partners to undertake more detailed local coastal hazard assessments at several priority locations along the coast, including Port Fairy, Bellarine Peninsula-Corio Bay, Western Port, Gippsland Lakes-90 Mile Beach. These local assessments will test a range of methods to analyse the impacts of sea level rise as well as provide practical information for planners and land and infrastructure managers to make decisions at a local scale22.

Secondary effects - projections

Bushfires

The projected warmer drier weather described in this section is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires. Relative to the climate of 1974-2003, by 2020 it is expected the number of ‘extreme’ fire danger days will generally increase by between 5 per cent and 40 per cent.

By 2050 this is expected to further increase by between 15 per cent and 25 per cent (under a lower emissions growth scenario) or by 120 per cent and 230 per cent (under a higher emissions growth scenario).23

Drought

Since the early 1970s, Australian droughts have become more intense as a result of the warmer than average temperatures. The projections for warmer temperatures and reduced annual rainfall are likely to increase the risk of drought.

The frequency of drought is also likely to increase by between 10 per cent and 80 per cent in the southern half of the state and by between 10 per cent and 60 per cent in the northern half by 2070.24

Barwon South West

The following provides an overview of the projected climate for the Barwon South West Region. This exposure information has been modelled specifically for the purposes of this Project.

Climate exposure modelling approach

This analysis uses climate modelling of predicted future changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as published data on sea levels to identify areas of greatest exposure across the Barwon South West.

22 http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/future-coasts/victorian-coastal-inundation-dataset 23 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment. 2008. Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary. 24 The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment. 2008. Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary.


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In addition, this study employs spatial climate mapping to more accurately determine the Region’s and each municipality’s relative exposure to projected future climate. This mapping uses a relative base line year and analyses projected changes in temperature and precipitation variables.25

To understand the impact of rising sea levels and storm surges on properties, a series of publicly available maps (Future Coasts) have been developed which outline low lying areas potentially vulnerable to coastal flooding from rising sea levels. Combining the sea level rise assessment with the temperature and precipitation projections provides an overview of the combined effect (regional exposure) of all three primary climate variables.

Figure 13 shows a climate exposure map for the Region outlining the change in mean and extreme temperature and total and extreme precipitation projected for 2030 and 2070, as well as sea level rise in 2100.26 Each temperature and precipitation data set shows the incremental change in the climate variable compared to the base year of 1990.

This analysis uses climate-modelling software (SimCLIM developed by CLIMsystems) to model the projected changes in climate for 2030 and 2070. This modelling is designed to provide trends in climate variability at a local and regional level over time. This approach integrates 23 Global Climate Models with local historical Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data into the overall modelling process. The climate modelling outputs are then verified against available State and National climate projections to ensure consistency in regional trends. A key feature of this downscaling is the ability to produce specific local climate projections (refer to Figure 11). It will also allow Municipalities to have access to user-friendly mapping where they can use the data with council owned assets to inform local decision making.

Figure 11: Climate modelling process (scale indicates level of downscaling)

This method allows the data to be extrapolated into a grid matrix that subsequently outputs the results into a size that can capture regional and local projections and allows for an even more detailed analysis. Appendix 2 provides a summary of the key climate modelling assumptions used.27

25 Secondary climate variables such as floods, drought and bushfire conditions have not been modelled. However, existing flood and bushfire prone mapping has been included in the sensitivity and adaptive capacity mapping. 26 In addition to the dashboards provided in this report each Municipality will receive GIS files of these modeling outputs as well as the base maps that make up the sensitivity and adaptive capacity layers. It is recommended that each Council overlays their own municipal data with these layers as they see fit for decision making purposes. 27 Please note that only one representative climate future has been modelled (A1FI). Additional modelling could be completed to produce seasonal data or exclude areas such as coastal zones and mountain ranges that potentially could create bias in the climate data.


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By 2030:

• The future climate of the Region is expected to be hotter and drier, average annual temperatures will be around 0.6°C (annual mean maximum temperature) warmer with winters slightly less than the other seasons

• The number of hot days (single days over 40°C) is expected to increase by 8 per cent and 40 per cent for three consecutive days over 40°C.

By 2070:

• Further increases in temperature are expected, occurring mostly in the summer with increases of 1.9°C for annual mean maximum temperature

• The number of hot days will continue to increase. With single days of 40°C expected to increase by 15 per cent and 67 per cent for three consecutive days over 40°C.


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Box 2 - Extreme heat analysis

Further climate modelling for individual BoM sites across all ten municipalities of the Barwon South West for extreme heat events was undertaken and the results are shown in Table 4 below. This analysis concentrated on the summer season only using BoM data away from coastal zones and mountain ranges. This was undertaken to provide a more detailed understanding of the frequency of extreme heat events without the influence of annual average temperature and local features such as ranges and coastal areas that can potentially bias the data outputs.

However, according to modeling projections, there will not be an increase in the overall frequency of extreme heat events compared to the annual figures provided in Figure 13. Figure 13 indicates a single extreme heat day over 40oC will occur once every 1.12 years by 2030. The summer seasonal analysis instead indicates an event every 2.01 years by 2030. This decrease in frequency could be attributed to hotter days experienced in the months of October, November, March and April not captured in the seasonal snapshot.

For three consecutive days over 35oC the summer seasonal analysis indicated that such an event would occur every 1.39 years by 2030. In comparison the annual analysis for three consecutive days over 40oC indicated such an event every 2.51 years by 2030.

Table 4 Extreme heat analysis for the Barwon South West


By 2030:

• There will be reductions in the total average annual rainfall by 3 per cent (with greatest reductions occurring in Spring). However single 50 mm rainfall events will slightly increase by 3 per cent that could lead to localised flooding.

By 2070:

• Rainfall totals are likely to continue to drop by 7 per cent. However single 50 mm rainfall events will increase by up to 10 per cent that could lead to localised flooding.


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Secondary effects – projections

By 2030:

• Increases in potential evaporation and reductions in relative humidity are expected to contribute to drier conditions

• Small increases in solar radiation are expected (by up to 0.8 per cent)

• There will be little change in average wind speeds.

By 2070:

• Conditions will become increasingly drier as evaporation continues to increase and relative humidity decreases

• Changes in wind speed will continue to be negligible.

Table 5 and Figure 13 provide a summary of the projected exposure for temperature, precipitation and sea level rise. Figure 14 provides further detailed mapping of the projected extent of coastal inundation along the length of the Great Ocean Road.

Dashboards should be read in context to this report and assumptions in Appendix 2. These dashboards provide a snapshot and show where the priority areas are as well as what areas may require further investigation or analysis.

Figure 12: Kentbruck wildfire, 2013

Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise

Overall the Region is getter warmer, coupled with a significant increase in extreme heat events over 40oC (both single day events and three consecutive days).

The warmest annual mean

Overall the Region is getting drier.

Extreme rainfall events over 50mm will slightly increase over the entire Region due to geographical diversity. However, at a municipal level there is a decreasing trend.

The Region has exposure to inundation along its entire coastline in particular the town centres of Apollo Bay, Port Campbell, Geelong, Portland, Port Fairy, Queenscliff, Torquay and Warrnambool.


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Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise

temperature in the Region will occur in the City of Greater Geelong.

The coolest mean temperature in the Region will be in the Southern Grampians Shire.

The greatest change in extreme temperature for single days over 40oC will occur in the Golden Plains Shire and the City of Greater Geelong for three consecutive days over 40oC.

The least change in extreme heat events will occur in Glenelg Shire.

The driest area in the Region will be in the Borough of Queenscliffe.

The wettest area in the Region will be in the Colac Otway Shire.

The greatest change (decrease) in rainfall events over 50mm will occur in Moyne Shire Council.

Table 5: Climate exposure summary for the Barwon South West


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Figure 13: Climate exposure for the Barwon South West


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Figure 14: Coastal inundation along Great Ocean Road


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Case study – coastal inundation along Great Ocean Road

Figure 14 outlines the extent of sea level rise with a one in 100 year storm tide by 2100 along the entire length of the Great Ocean Road. In total, approximately 1 per cent of the Great Ocean Road is directly exposed to such coastal inundation.

Figure 14 also provides a snapshot of the coastal villages such as Apollo Bay and tourist destinations such as Bells Beach with respect to this projected exposure.

A recent study commissioned by the Great Ocean Road Coast Committee (GORCC) on coastal climate change vulnerability and adaptation found that between Torquay and Lorne approximately $21.7 million of built infrastructure on GORCC managed land, such as boat ramps, car parks and caravan parks will be exposed to inundation with 0.8 metres of sea level rise, while $137 million of built infrastructure would be exposed to recession.28 The study also indicates that projected coastal inundation may affect the operation of key reef-based surf breaks including Bells Beach.

4.6 Climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity Incidence of drought, heat waves, sea level rise, storm surge and extreme rainfall are all expected to vary in their incidence, intensity and location as the climate changes.

Whilst there are challenges in downscaling the likelihood of these events from global climate models to the district level, it is possible to locate and predict the likely occurrences of these events under future climate change scenarios.

Vulnerability to climate change is a difficult combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate events that are moderated by local adaptive capacity. So whilst the degree of exposure to climate stressors can be readily modeled and mapped, indicators for sensitivity and adaptability require considered choices. Selection is especially difficult when the interpretation of vulnerability is wide, covers a broad spectrum of triple bottom line issues, and must be framed around risk, as is the case for the Barwon South West Region. Currently there is no agreed national protocol or common practice for the selection of vulnerability indicators. In practice, wide ranges of indicators have been selected to assess climate vulnerability from the general (e.g. social well being) to the specific (e.g. flood prone areas).

The climate vulnerability assessment has chosen indicators based on their primary use. Given that the nature of climate events determines the degree of vulnerability and how to measure it, there are four main categories of use:

• Locate vulnerability

• Predict the timing and/or intensity of vulnerability

• Monitor change in vulnerability over time

• Support prioritisation of risk and/or mitigation actions.29

28 Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation (GORCC 2012) 29 Vulnerability indicators for the Barwon South West were independently peer reviewed by Alloporus Environmental using these for categories as a guide.


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These distinctions reflect the fact that no one metric can easily cover the full range of assets and values or provide clear priorities for adaptation.

The map for social, economic and environment (Figure 16) indicates where areas will have the highest sensitivity and least adaptive capacity to the projected changes in climate across the Region.

In summary:

• The social map indicates human populations, which have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to projected changes in climate

• The economic map indicates land use activities, which have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to projected changes in climate

• The environment map indicates natural systems and conditions, which have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to projected changes in climate.

The key indicators that were selected to measure the sensitivity and adaptive capacity within the Barwon South West Region are outlined below in Table 6.

These indicators have been ranked based on current sensitivity and adaptive capacity to provide an overview of what the regional trends are.

These indicators are based on existing data sets that outline the current state, demographics, capability and conditions and do not include projected changes in these parameters. When combined with the climate exposure layers it provides an indication of overall vulnerability for the Region and each municipality.

These maps do not reflect actual data boundaries as these maps have all been consolidated into Census data boundaries. This has been done to provide consistency across the three maps, provide regional trends and for ease of interpretation.


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Scope Key climate impacts for Region30 Indicators

Economic31

Built environment Financial and physical capital

Agriculture sector put under stress, in particular:

- Dairy industry - Fruit crops - Viticulture - Forestry - Aquaculture

Areas of economic activity for agriculture land use (Source: Victorian State Government) Soil productivity and degradation (Source: Australian Government, Department of Agriculture)

Water infrastructure put under stress Decrease in water yield Increase in water demand

Water supply-demand balance (Source: Wannon Water and Barwon Water)

Power infrastructure put under stress Increase in electricity demand from winter heating to summer cooling

Energy supply demand (Source: Powercor)

Environment32

Natural environment

Reduction in water quality and flows in rivers and wetlands

Wetland extent and condition (Source: Victorian State Government) Groundwater salinity (Source: University of Ballarat)

Altered species distribution Native vegetation extent and condition (Source: Victorian State Government)

Greater bushfire activity Bushfire prone areas (Source: Victorian State Government)

Inundation from heavy rains and storm events

1 in 100 year flood prone areas (Source: Victorian State Government)

Social

Human capital

Increase in heat-related health problems, in particular:

- Elderly - People under physical stress - Cardiovascular disease

Age (above 65 and living alone and full dependant – four years and under) Household ownership Median house income Non-English speaking backgrounds Population density (Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics)

Table 6: Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators for the Project

30 Based on Victorian Government findings 2008 – Climate change in the Glenelg Hopkins and Corangamite regions. 31 This excludes tourism and transport infrastructure condition due to limited availability of data. 32 This excludes coastal erosion prone areas due to limited availability of data.


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Table 7 and Figure 16 provide a summary of the social, economic and environmental sensitivities and adaptive capacity for the Region.

Social Economic Environmental

• Populations with the highest social sensitivity and least adaptive capacity are located within the densely populated major regional town centres, in particular Colac, Hamilton and Warrnambool and the suburbs of northern Geelong that have a greater proportion of elderly communities

• Populations with the least social sensitivity and greatest adaptive capacity are primarily located within the regional rural districts. This is influenced by the low population densities in these areas

• Highest economic sensitivity and least adaptive capacity will occur primarily in the regions of the City of Greater Geelong, Colac Otway Shire, Golden Plains Shire and the Surf Coast Shire. This is influenced by the dominance of primary industry production in these areas, along with local soil conditions

• Least economic sensitivity and greatest adaptive capacity will occur primarily in the regions of the Corangamite Shire and the Moyne Shire

• Highest environmental sensitivity and least adaptive capacity will occur primarily in the regions of Glenelg Shire, Golden Plains Shire, Southern Grampians, Corangamite Shire and Colac Otway Shire. Groundwater salinity, flood prone areas, wetland condition and extent, influence this

• Least environmental sensitivity and greatest adaptive capacity will occur primarily in the urban regions of the Borough of Queenscliffe and the City of Greater Geelong

Table 7: Key findings for climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the Region

Figure 15: Landslip triggered by heavy rain along Devondale Road, 2008


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Figure 16: Climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity for the Barwon South West


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4.7 Overall vulnerability By taking into account the climate exposures as well as the social, economic and environmental sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the Region it provides an indication of overall vulnerability.

Table 8 provides a summary of the vulnerability assessment key findings for the Barwon South West Region.

Overall vulnerability

Overall the Region is getting warmer and drier.

At a social level the populations of the major regional town centres of Colac, Hamilton, Warrnambool and the suburbs of northern Geelong will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

At an economic level the primary industries within Colac Otway Shire, Golden Plains Shire and Surf Coast Shire as well as the energy and water demanding activities of the City of Greater Geelong will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

At an environmental level the natural environs of Glenelg Shire, Golden Plains Shire, Southern Grampians, Corangamite Shire and Colac Otway Shire will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

The Region will experience permanent inundation along its entire coastline, the townships of Barwon Heads, Apollo Bay, Port Campbell, Geelong, Portland, Port Fairy, Queenscliff, Torquay and Warrnambool will have the greatest sensitivity to this change.

Table 8: Key findings for overall vulnerability of the Barwon South West


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5. Current adaptive capacity of the Region This section provides an assessment of the Region’s current adaptive capacity, based on the results of a health check undertaken for each of the 10 Councils. As noted in Section 4, adaptive capacity relates to the potential to reduce climate vulnerability through the ability to withstand, deflect or recover from damage. The results of the Health Check provided qualitative information to Councils that highlighted aspects of Council-managed activities which impact adaptive capacity. Significant themes of strengths and weaknesses were analysed at the Council and Regional levels and were considered in workshops and in the formulation of recommended projects in Section 9.

Previous work on climate adaptation in councils has identified that the fundamental challenge for councils is to view climate adaptation as core business and a central consideration in their short, medium and long term planning for their community. Whilst concerns about a changing climate and local climate impacts are high on the agenda of many Australian communities there is a need for guidance on embedding climate change adaptation to support local council business processes, procedures, systems and planning. This will assist councils in taking this important step as an integral part of their adaptation efforts. This must cover the whole breadth of activities appropriate for all council functions, services and assets: land use planning, asset management (water and sewerage, waste, road, property and community facilities and open space), natural areas and coastal management, corporate services, etc. This Project supports the application of generated knowledge on how to embed climate adaptation in various aspects of local government business by providing insight on how this can be achieved.

5.1 Health check tool A survey-based health check tool was developed to measure and monitor the adaptive capacity of each Council. The tool leveraged the analysis of better practice characteristics described in Section 3. The steps taken for the development and application of the tool were:

Figure 17: Health Check process

Develop health check

•Better practice criteria developed based on better practice research •Distilled into five areas of adaptation action: complying, engaging, assessing, responding and monitoring

•Two surveys were developed with questions targeting actions occuring in the five areas above

Run health check

•Two surveys provided to Council stakeholders - detailed survey with specific questions to Council Representatives charged with repsonsibilty for environment/sustainability/climate change and a broad survey of representatives from operational areas across Councils, to gauge awareness and engagement at Council level on adapatation

Interpret health check

•Survey results collated•Analysis of results informed health check scores in the five areas of adaptation action. These results are current for the point in time the survey was conducted

•Surveys can be re-run by Councils to understand their progression in preparedness and response to climate change adaptation


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Criteria

The Health Check distilled better practice criteria into five areas: complying, engaging, assessing, responding and monitoring. These are explained below:

Complying

Complying considers the extent to which a council is meeting its current relevant legislative requirements. This includes obligations under the Emergency Management Act 1986, Country Fire Authority Act 1958, Public Health and Wellbeing Act 2008, Water Act 1989, Water Industry Act 1994 and the Electricity Safety Act 1998.

Engaging

Engaging considers a council’s governance framework and participatory processes in relation to extreme weather events and their impact. This includes the documentation and communication of a chain of command, the integration of climate change considerations throughout the organisation (e.g. planning instruments) and the extent of climate change related roles and responsibilities. In relation to participatory processes, it considers the engagement and empowering of key stakeholders and their awareness of climate change risks and emergency management protocols.

Assessing

Assessing considers the identification and assessment of risks related to future extreme weather events. This includes whether the council currently has a climate change adaptation plan or strategy and whether council has undertaken any risk exercises (e.g. vulnerability assessment mapping, risk mapping, or climate exposure analysis). Assessing also looks at the identification of interdependencies and cumulative impacts.

Responding

Responding considers action planning and implementation of responses to extreme weather events. It looks at how well a council has previously responded and whether any changes were made to its response strategy to incorporate lessons learnt. Additionally, it considers how often climate change impacts are considered in the review of any strategic and operational documents (e.g. emergency management plans, fire management plans or risk registers). At a higher level, how well does a council demonstrate balance across initiatives i.e. how prepared is the council for any disruptions due to extreme weather events.

Monitoring

Monitoring is the measuring, monitoring and review of initiatives. This demonstrates to what extent a council remains relevant, up-to-date and reflective of current initiatives and considers the comprehensiveness of Councils’ activities in terms of procedures, activities and responsiveness.

Surveys

Two surveys were undertaken to gather information on councils’ current adaptation activities. The surveys were:

• A detailed survey which was completed by one respondent from each council, often in collaboration with and incorporating input from other areas of the council, as relevant

• A broad self-assessment survey which provided an indication of the awareness and engagement on adaptation across the councils. This was undertaken by a number of people from a range of departments across each council.

The results presented below are a summary of the aggregated health check results of all ten municipalities.


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Ongoing use of the tool

The health check is intended to be a snapshot at a point in time and will change going forward as councils update and introduce new approaches, policies and procedures to better respond to climate risks.

It is recommended that councils consider independently undertaking the health check to establish a baseline (inclusive of any additional elements in their Municipality), and a scoring methodology, in order to repeat the survey and use it as a comparative tool going forward. By developing their own scoring methodology, councils can create a tailored approach including placing emphasis on the highest priority criteria in regards to its operations and circumstances if desired.

The survey informing the health check could be answered using a forum with key Council representatives in attendance, to ensure a comprehensive, up to date and mutually agreed response.

5.2 Survey outcomes across the Region Based on the detailed survey results, the level of preparedness for climate change risks and impacts vary considerably across the Region. Compliance was very high, whereas risk identification and assessment was the weakest area across the board.

Due to the lack of an adaptation plan or strategy in a majority of Councils, it was difficult to demonstrate a robust or complete response to climate change.

Figure 18: Barwon South West Regional Health Check

Complying

All but one Council stated in their survey responses that they are currently fully compliant with their statutory obligations in regard to climate change and emergency management. The health check survey identified a minor issue for one Council.

Engaging

Based on the survey responses, it was demonstrated that Councils were generally stronger on the governance and engagement component of the health check. For a range of extreme events, there was a chain of command that had been documented and/or communicated. This was not always comprehensively undertaken for all possible extreme events, but it had a strong response across the Region.

The survey responses demonstrated that the weaker component of governance and engagement was the embedding of climate change adaptation responses into planning instruments and the roles and responsibilities of Council employees.


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The awareness of the community about climate change risks and responses was correlated to the extent of awareness raising measures in place. One of the key challenges identified was the acceptance of the community of the issue of climate change.

Assessing

Assessing is considered a preliminary step to responding, however there was a trend across the Region of more response actions relative to the identification and assessment of risks.

Based on the survey results, most Councils have undertaken some type of risk assessment exercise, however in many cases they are not comprehensive and do not necessarily link to the actions that have been undertaken as part of thire response strategy.

As this section includes the consideration of whether a Council has an adaptation plan or strategy, it was weaker due to the lack of such documents across the Region with the exception of two Councils.

Responding

The surveys stated there is often some form of process in place amongst Councils across the Region, such as project debriefs following an extreme event to identify what did and did not work well in terms of a Council’s response to an extreme weather event, which is then incorporated into revised emergency management plans. There was a wide variation of responses amongst Councils on whether they consider climate change impacts in their strategic and operational documents such as operational plans, fire management plans and health and wellbeing plans.

Monitoring

Councils generally consider themselves to be somewhat responsive in preparing for and responding to extreme weather events. A couple of Councils have formal monitoring as part of wider strategy documents.

Measurement, monitoring and review is an important component of any adaptation plan or strategy, as it evaluates their effectiveness and informs a process of ongoing review and updates.

The results of the Council health checks were presented to each respective Council during the Municipal strategic discussions (see Section 6 of this report).

The health check results were used to prompt discussion on the Councils’ current level of preparedness to respond to climate change risks and where opportunities exist for future action as part of an individual council and/or regional adaptation response. These potential actions aim to address current weaknesses in preparedness to respond to climate change risks as identified by the health checks.

The Municipal strategic discussions informed the development of an initial list of recommended adaptation projects. Council actions are discussed further in Section 6 of this report.

Stakeholders prioritised the recommended projects during a workshop with project partners and councils on 11 November 2013 (see Section 9 of this report). The criteria used to assess the priority of projects included consideration of the importance of addressing gaps in current processes that the health checks have identified.


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6. Municipality strategic discussions During Stage 3 of the Project, strategic discussions were held with each Council over a two-week period in September 2013. During the workshops the results of Stage 1 (Vulnerability Assessment) and Stage 2 (Planning and Action Review) were presented and discussed. The objectives were to:

• Begin to identify, socialise and consider the climate risks and opportunities facing the Region

• Explore implications for the design, building and management of council property, infrastructure and services

• Consider the resilience of the local economy and natural assets and implications for the economic development strategy and approaches to protect and enhance natural assets

• Develop initial actions for each risk or opportunity identified which could then be analysed and prioritised for consideration in Phase Two.

The discussions and outputs do not remove the need for councils to carry out individual risk mapping, assessment and prioritisation activities. Having said this, a wealth of information was collated across the ten workshops which has been analysed in this section to draw out themes and implications for Phase Two. These themes fall into the following categories:

a. Perceptions of what climate effects will present the greatest challenges to councils – this is presented below from the perspective of primary effects and how councils expect the natural environment, infrastructure, council assets, the community and industry to be affected

b. Initial views of actions that should be undertaken for each risk – actions were categorised and benchmarked against better practice responses typical for each risk areas.

6.1 Risk assessment process

As described above Councils identified key risks for each climate effect (based on the climate modelling outlined in Section 4 of this report and the individual municipal reports) in relation to their specific social, economic and environmental sensitivities. The assessment included:

• Identifying the climate effect (e.g. sea level rise)

• Identifying the risk associated with the effect (e.g. inundation of assets)

• Identifying the consequence of the risk across the local government area and region (e.g. asset damage and disruption to businesses).

After undertaking these steps, a ‘risk statement’ was developed (e.g. sea level rise will cause the inundation of tourism assets leading to property damage and disruption to tourism).

It should be noted that these risk statements have been developed as a cause-effect statement, which describes what may happen to specific operations and assets as a result of changes in the climate. In a full climate risk assessment process consistent with industry better practice (see AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk management – Principles and guidelines, AS 5334 – 2013 Climate adaptation for settlements and infrastructure – A risk based approach, Australian Government’s Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Government) each risk statement would be analysed to determine its likelihood and magnitude. Additionally, the risk assessment used would be fully aligned with the Council’s own risk management system and functional areas and undertaken in consultation with key staff from across Council, ideally the same participants engaged in the strategic discussions.


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A risk assessment matrix has been provided as a tool as part of the adaptation plan development process. This matrix has been pre-populated with 150 risk statements identified through the municipal strategic discussions, which are analysed below and also included in Appendix 4.

To address identified risks, generic adaptation options were identified by the participating councils during the strategic discussions. These are discussed further within this section of the report. In addition, recommendations for next steps have also been developed. These recommendations include undertaking detailed assessments on exposed council and other assets and embedding climate adaptation and resilience into the key areas of governance and decision-making processes in each council.

6.2 Risk assessment results

Most concerning climate variables

More than 150 potential climate risks were identified and assessed as part of the strategic discussions’ risk assessment exercises. This assessment indicated that temperature was considered as having the highest proportion of significant risks, followed by precipitation then sea level rise. These are broken down in Figure 19 below, which provides further detail on the number of risk statements relating to each climate variable and impact.

The combined, or other, category of risk includes secondary climate effects such as increased bushfire risk and increased wind speeds associated with increased storms, etc.

Figure 19: Number of risk statements by climate variable and impact

Temperature -higher maximum (52)

Temperature - higher annual mean (11)

Precipitation -decrease in mean precipitation (28)

Precipitation -increase in severity

of precipitation events (17)

Sea Level Rise -mean sea level rise

(26)

Sea Level Rise -increased storm

surge (8)Combined

(8)


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As shown in Figure 20, the four most significant risks identified are as follows:

• An increase in extreme heat days

• A decrease in mean annual precipitation/rainfall

• An increase in sea level

• An increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events.

This does not indicate that these, and other climate effects not yet fully analysed, are not key future risks for the Region but rather that a key information gap exists. The lack of bushfire risk modelling incorporating future climate risk has been highlighted as a critical information gap.

Figure 20: Climate impacts

Key Regional sectors most at risk

The regional results from the initial risk identification process assist in understanding and managing regional climate risks and inform opportunities for priorities for adaptation across the Region.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Higher mean temperatures

Higher maximum daily temperatures

Decrease in mean precipitation

Decrease in relative humidity

Increase bushfire weather

Increase in frequency of intense precipitation events

Increase in mean precipitation

Increase in mean sea level rise

Increase in relative humidity

Increase in severity of precipitation events

Increase intensity of cyclones

Increase storm severity

Increase storm severity and risk of storm surge

Low daily minimum temperature

Low mean temperature

Climate Impact


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Figure 21: Risks by sector

The next section details the results of the risk assessment, grouped by theme. The six themes are:

• Natural assets

• Buildings

• Community wellbeing

• Industry

• Council assets and services

• Infrastructure

The results in Figure 21 indicate that natural assets and infrastructure are considered to be the most impacted sectors followed by industry (mainly agricultural), community and council (assets and services). It should also be noted that it is likely that the risks in the infrastructure, community wellbeing, buildings and the multiple sector categories are most likely to equally apply to council assets and services. If these were all added together then it would indicate that approximately 66 per cent of risk relates to council assets and services.

Regional sector 1: Natural assets

Figure 22: Natural asset risk by climate variable

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Buildings

Community wellbeing

Council assets/services

Industry

Infrastructure

Multiple

Natural

Sector

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea Level Rise

Combined

Natural


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The projected changes in temperature are the main cause of the risks identified for most sectors in the Region and this is particularly so for natural assets and industry. Sea level rise is also a key risk for the infrastructure sector. After temperature, all climate variables are equally impacting council assets and services.

The full set of risk statements that relate to natural assets are in Table 18 in Appendix 4.

Regional sector 2: Buildings

Figure 23: Building sector risk by climate variable

The climate risks associated with buildings developed by the participating councils are included in Table 19 in Appendix 4.

Regional sector 3: Community wellbeing

Figure 24: Community sector risk by climate variable

0 1 2 3 4 5

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea Level Rise

Combined

Buildings

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Temperature

Precipitation

Sea Level Rise

Combined

Community/Community Wellbeing


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Council will have a major challenge managing the impacts from extreme heat and other associated impacts to highly sensitive residents such as the elderly, children and infants due to their limited adaptive capacity to deal with the projected significant increases in extreme heat events over 40oC. During a heat wave these residents typically have less access to air conditioning, due to high power running costs; have greater difficulty understanding emergency response directions and health warnings; and potentially suffer greater health effects due to their age and physical condition. This can lead in turn to increased demand on these services. These vulnerabilities in the community will require detailed investigation and analysis.

The climate risks associated with community wellbeing developed by the participating councils are included in Table 20 in Appendix 4.

Regional sector 4: Industry

Participants highlighted a number of key climate risks to local industries in the Region. These were mainly centred on agricultural practices that could be particularly vulnerable to the projected changes in temperature and precipitation.

Table 21 in Appendix 4 lists these climate risks.

Regional sector 5: Council assets and services

Temperature and precipitation

All councils are exposed to the risks associated with an increase in temperature - both extreme heat events, increase in mean temperature and associated decreases in mean precipitation. The risks associated with these future climate conditions can combine and lead to water security issues in the Region as well as heat stress amongst the community.

Sea level rise

All councils are directly exposed to the risks associated with sea level rise such as key council assets are at risk from inundation. Councils also cited exposure to the risks associated with increased storm surge and storm activity in these coastal areas, as well as an associated increase in sea spray and salinity impacts.

Drought and bushfires

All councils included risks relating to increased heat, drought conditions and less rainfall leading to an increase in bushfire risk conditions.

Wind

Although not a focus of the current analysis councils also cited that the Region would most likely be exposed to the risks associated with increased storm activity.

Relative humidity

This was not a focus of this analysis and risk assessment. There are a number of other climate effects that affect the Region but were not the focus of this assessment.

The full set of risk statements related to council assets and services are in Table 22 in Appendix 4.

Regional sector 6: Infrastructure and assets at risk

The councils developed a large number of risk statements related to infrastructure assets, which are provided in Table 23 in Appendix 4. Many of these assets are coastal infrastructure such as roads, bridges, piers, walkways and lookouts etc, located in areas adjacent to the shoreline or tidal rivers on the coast.


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The risks to council assets include:

• Increased heat events leading to higher rates of deterioration of buildings and built assets resulting in higher maintenance costs for roofing, cladding, window and other systems.

• Increase severity of precipitation events causing localised flooding, resulting in the inundation of infrastructure and increased maintenance and repair costs, disruption to services and damage/blocking of drainage sewerage systems and contamination of waterways

• A decrease in mean precipitation leading to a reduction in environmental flows and impacts on infrastructure integrity and performance (drainage pipes crack in low flows) causing increased maintenance and upgrade costs. Councils also cited the increased risk of landslides and increased costs to upgrade and maintain infrastructure. This also results in reduced water security and reliability

• Sea level rise and storm surge resulting in the erosion of coastal assets (including marinas and boat ramps) and higher maintenance/replacement costs, loss and damage, flooding of roads affecting access and egress issues and the reduction in transport routes across the Region (especially along the Great Ocean Road). They also mentioned threats to inundation of coastal landfill (disused) and septic tanks, resulting in pollution. Heritage items on the coast (e.g. The Breakwater- Warrnambool) were also listed.

Other infrastructure at risk

An additional table has been developed which includes a fuller list of climate risks to assets owned and operated by a number of partners - water utilities, electricity companies, State agencies (e.g. Vic Roads) etc. This table is included in Appendix 4. Roads, pipelines, radio masts, tracks and paths, power poles, transmission lines, substations, water and sewage treatment plants could all be at risk.

Detailed risk assessment

In addition to the above analysis it is also suggested that detailed site based climate resilience assessments be undertaken for all potentially exposed assets. Noting the importance of the large number of assets that are at risk, one of the high priority projects is the development of an “Asset @ Risk Register”, for each council and for the Region.

With these assessments, the councils will be able to gain a deeper understanding of each asset’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a changing climate. In addition the assessment allows for the identification of the elements for treatment that are highly vulnerable and have low resilience. In general, new assets can be climate resilient by ensuring that they are located, designed, built and operated with the current and future climate in mind. Whilst existing assets can be climate resilient by ensuring that operation and maintenance regimes incorporate resilience to the impacts of climate change over a property’s lifetime.

6.3 Municipal resilience actions The possible actions to address the risks identified above, generated in Phase One of the Project, largely comprise investigative work - research, modelling, data gathering, consultation and knowledge sharing – in response to gaps in knowledge and understanding made clear through the strategic discussions.

Detailed examples of actions that can be considered by Council as part of their adaptation planning process can be found in each of the Municipal reports, as relevant to each Municipality.


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The commonly cited themes in these actions across the participating councils are:

• Amend internal Council processes

• Engagement and advocacy/championing within the community

• Infrastructure resilience

• Investigation of opportunities for resilient economic development

• Addressing knowledge and funding gaps

• Creating partnerships with others (e.g. government, private landholders, industry, research agencies).

These actions are reflective of the themes of the broader regional actions, which are discussed in Section 9.


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7. What does this all mean for the Region? This section draws together the information from Stages One to Three of the Project and identifies key themes and implications for the Region and partners operating within it.

7.1 Climate Resilient Communities - Stages One to Three The conclusions from Stages One to Three of the Project at the regional level are discussed below.

Stage One: Vulnerability assessment

A warmer and drier climate, as predicted for the future, will impact the Region in different ways. Given that vulnerability is a function of exposure and capacity to adapt, hot spots for social, environmental and economic sensitivities were identified:

• Communities in regional town centres

• Primary industry across three Councils

• Industrial activity in one Council

• Ecosystems within half the Councils

Inundation is a significant risk across the entire coastline.

Stage Two: Planning and action review

The Planning and Action Review was designed to understand the characteristics of each municipality and to understand their adaptive capacity relative to better practice. This was done through a series of steps that commenced with a better practice review, to identify how councils could and should be responding. A health check was undertaken to provide a snapshot of the current adaptive capacity of each council, and this formed the basis for the resilience actions included in each Council’s Resilience Roadmap. Across the board, the health check identified the lack of embedding of climate adaptation into decision-making processes. Few have considered broader climate risks or considered how these risks should be factored into strategic and operational governance, processes and documentation.

Greater effectiveness of any future actions could be achieved through a strong governance, risk and stakeholder engagement process. The importance of these processes is highlighted in the discussion of the regional priority projects in Section 9, as they must also be considered in the context of undertaking projects and actions on a regional scale.

Stage Three: Strategic discussions

There was a high level of participation at all 10 council workshops during which over 150 risk statements were identified. There was also an awareness of the need to develop adaptation responses to mitigate the impacts of a changing climate. Councils identified a range of possible actions:

1) Further investigations and research to better understand in detail the impacts, vulnerabilities and sensitivities in the following key areas: exposed communities, at risk ecosystems, as well as water and power provisioning services, and infrastructure and assets of regional significance – ports, roads and buildings

2) Build awareness of climate change and extreme weather events within the communities of the Region. Consider the adequacy of communication channels in business as usual and emergency situations. Consider how future demographic forecast for the Region impacts sensitivities. Consider how economic sensitivities impact on community wellbeing (i.e. employment)

3) Engage with service providers and industry to help them consider the findings of this Phase. Establish collaborative platforms to support the development of adaptation responses in areas


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outside Council control. This may include evaluating opportunities to promote sectors that suit a drier and warmer climate e.g., tourism and renewable energy

4) Integrate future climate risks into Council processes and decision-making frameworks. This should include asset risk registers and the development of council level adaptation plans.

7.2 Snapshots of the Barwon South West Drawing on the significant insights gained through the first three stages of the project, snapshots of key industries, assets and icons of the Barwon South West Region have been developed that look at the importance they play in the Region and the potential impacts that climate change and extreme weather events may have on them. They highlight the need and urgency for targeted, coordinated adaptation responses to ensure these remain iconic facets of the Barwon South West Region.

The Region’s ports

Climate change poses potential risks and costs to all of the Region’s ports particularly the high risk of damage or inundation of infrastructure from sea level rise and storm surges. For instance the Port of Portland is constrained by having a limited area for expansion and as an asset of national importance this poses particular challenges, which will only be exacerbated under climate change. The Port’s significance is demonstrated by the fact that it provides more than 30 per cent of Melbourne fresh fish supplies.

Significant regional economic opportunities will be placed at risk if this and other ports in the Region cannot expand and develop or the costs of doing so are prohibitive due to future climatic conditions such as sea level rise and associated storm surge. It will be critical to robustly assess the impacts on port infrastructure as part of a climate adaptation plan, where relevant. The Region’s ports would be examples of key assets that should be part of an Assets @ Risk Register for the Region and relevant municipalities.

Natural assets

The natural resources of the Region include a wealth of high quality and diverse natural assets which underpin the competitive advantages of the Region. The Region hosts native timber, fisheries, wind resources, natural gas, coal, stone resources and deep-water access. These all provide the basis for much of the Region’s economic success and opportunities. The Region contains some of Victoria’s best-known national parks, landscapes and cultural heritage places.

The Region’s natural resources and assets will be significantly impacted by projected extreme events and changes to the climate. This Project has highlighted the need for strengthened protection for these natural assets. The Region’s wealth of environment assets includes the Budj Bim National Heritage Landscape (which incorporates the Mount Eccles Lake Condah area, and the Tyrendarra Area), the Twelve Apostles Marine National Park and Port Campbell National Park, Lower Glenelg National Park, Mount Richmond National Park, the Grampians National Park, the Great Otway National Park, Bay of Islands Coastal Park, Cape Bridgewater, Discovery Bay, Cape Nelson Lighthouse, Western District lakes – Ramsar listed wetlands, Griffiths Island, Bonney Upwelling and Shipwreck coast.

It will be essential to accurately map and model data of environmental assets with climate exposure and sensitivity data to provide accurate information for prioritisation of adaptation actions. An expansion of large-scale vegetation planting (corridors, carbon farming, ecosystem services and offset market activities) was recognised by the Councils as an adaptation action with substantial co-benefits (sustainability, biodiversity conservation and carbon mitigation) that would need boosted resourcing into the future. For instance the Grampians National Park already has high sensitivity to current extreme heat


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and rainfall events that can cause landslides and infrastructure damage. This issue has been drawn out in a recent survey33 of tourists to the area, which for the first time cited reservations about visiting the Grampians as a result of recent landslides and bushfires. Recognising the most vulnerable of these assets is the first step to further protecting the Region’s highest value assets. Phase One of this Project has begun this investigation.

Agriculture – the dairy industry

The dairy industry in the Barwon South West is Australia’s largest, with over 1000 farmers, accounting for 50 per cent of the Region’s exports, 23 per cent of the gross regional product and 25 per cent of Australia’s overall dairy production. Dairying companies in the Region include Warrnambool Cheese and Butter Company and Fonterra and there are approximately 6,000 people employed in the dairy processing sector.

As the Region becomes warmer and drier, the dairy industry will face challenges that may negatively impact communities and the local economy.

As the dairy industry in the Region is mainly pasture based and has a high demand for water, a warmer and drier climate will negatively affect the industry. Farmers may be forced to switch to grain feeding their herds which may consequently lead to lower cattle weights and milk yields. This could lead to a loss of employment opportunities in the Region.

However as changes in climate occur, farmers may switch to cropping as it becomes a more viable agricultural activity in existing dairying pastures.

These considerations call for strong engagement with the dairy industry to understand how climate risks are being factored into long term business strategies and what role Councils could take.

Tourism

Tourism is one of the Barwon South West’s major industries. A rich variety of natural assets and supporting tourism infrastructure across the Region attracts thousands of tourists every year, with numbers rising. Major destinations include the iconic Great Ocean Road, the Twelve Apostles, the Grampians National Park, the Great Otway National Park, Geelong Waterfront and Bellarine Peninsula.

However as the Region becomes warmer and drier, with more extreme heat event days over 40oC (both single day events and three consecutive day events), and coastal towns such as Apollo Bay, Port Campbell, Geelong, Portland, Port Fairy, Queenscliff, Torquay and Warrnambool are exposed to inundation, the tourism industry may face new challenges.

Warmer and drier conditions could lead to movement of people from rural areas to regional centres placing greater demand on town services and infrastructure. If tourist numbers continue to trend upwards, such centres may experience an even greater demand on services and infrastructure. However as regional centres have the highest social sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity to changes in climate, meeting these demands may present a significant challenge.

Additionally tourists visit areas with the highest environmental sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity such as coastal towns and the Grampians and Great Otway National Parks and this may place increasing pressure on the environment and vital infrastructure servicing these areas. Conversely the changes in climate may lead to a decline in tourism, as the natural attractions (ecotourism assets) and infrastructure of the Region could be negatively impacted through events such as bushfires, landslides and coastal

33 Great South Coast Regional Strategy


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inundation.

The changing climate could also present opportunities to the industry including attracting visitors to warmer and drier coastal areas, and to urban areas such as Queenscliff and Geelong, that have the least sensitivity and greatest adaptive capacity from an environmental perspective. More research on the impacts on future demographic and tourist activity drivers linked to climate change will assist Councils in planning future service and resource requirements.

Agriculture – the forestry industry

The forestry industry in the Barwon South West is a significant employer in the Region. However as the Region becomes warmer and drier the forestry industry will face challenges that may negatively impact communities and the local economy.

The industry may experience declining yields through less and/or lighter logs being produced through lower growth rates from a warmer and drier climate and degrading soil conditions from erosion and salinity issues. Additionally plantations could be lost through bushfires, which may increase in frequency and intensity as the Region becomes warmer and drier. Compounding this impact is the fact that the highest environmental sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity of the Region correlates to those municipalities where forestry exists. Overall such factors could decrease the viability of the industry and lead to a loss of employment opportunities in the Region.

A potentially mitigating factor is that forestry is currently undertaken in areas with the coolest mean temperatures and least change in extreme heat events in the Region.

Regional plans and climate risk

The Great South Coast Regional Strategic Plan (2012) recognises the risks to natural resources, environmental and cultural heritage assets and agricultural systems from the potential impacts of climate change, along with potential opportunities for economic diversification such as new industries. It acknowledges that more information is needed on the likely impacts of climate change on existing and emerging industries across the Region to assist with strategic land use planning such as the recent local coastal hazard assessment undertaken for Port Fairy. It states that there needs to be flexible approaches to land use planning in order to adapt to land use changes induced by changing climatic conditions. It gives particular attention to bushfire risk, which will be exacerbated by climate change, stating authorities should prioritise human life with regard to bushfire risk management and direct development to locations of lower bushfire risk. The Plan does not however give mention to the current gap in data relating to bushfire risk and future climate. It also fails, despite these acknowledgements of the risk from future climatic conditions, to consider climate proofing in relation to the Plan’s main recommendations on infrastructure and economic development.

The G21 Geelong Region Plan (2013) is also cognisant of the impacts of climate change on the environment, water resources and natural assets and has designed a number of policy responses to mitigate these risks. In particular, the Plan has a focus on transport, energy, infrastructure, biological research and waste. A key response action, which has also been identified through this Project, is the establishment of critical thresholds, to determine the necessity of protection methods for infrastructure.

The Great Ocean Road

As one of the primary tourist attractions in Victoria, the Great Ocean Road (GOR) links the Region to the


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east, where Geelong acts as a gateway to Warrnambool from Melbourne. It is a key tourism route and as such provides links to other regions including to the Wimmera, Southern Mallee, Central Highlands, Geelong and through to Melbourne. The Great Ocean Road is a listed Australian National Heritage 243 kilometre stretch of road between cities Torquay and Allansford. The GOR winds through varying terrain along the coast and provides access to several prominent landmarks including the Twelve Apostles limestone stack formations. The GOR is an important tourist attraction in the Region. The GOR is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge across a number of low lying points along the coast e.g. Port Campbell, Queenscliff and Apollo Bay. The exact extent of this hazard has been mapped for this Project using Future Coast data (see Figure 14). The GOR is also potentially vulnerable to extreme heat events and exposure could result in road rutting and cracking, bridge expansion joint cracking and subsequently causing transport delays and/or safety incidents. It is also critical in bushfire events as a key access and egress route for thousands of residents and businesses as well as thousands of tourists in the summer season especially. VicRoads, as part of the partner discussions in this Project, highlighted that they were yet to undertake a comprehensive climate hazard assessment for the road.

Agriculture – the cropping industry

The cropping industry which consists of growing and harvesting a variety of crops is a significant part of the agricultural activity of the Barwon South West. Broadacre cropping has grown over recent years with a variety of cereal crops, oilseeds (e.g. canola), pulses, vegetables and orchard fruits being produced. Together these activities contributed approximately $400 million to the local economy in 2011.

As the Region becomes warmer and drier, challenges to cropping activities may arise. Negative impacts on agricultural land from grassfires which could increase in frequency and intensity due to warmer and drier weather conditions may occur. Additionally negative impacts may arise from worsening soil quality from erosion and increases in salinity.

However as the Region’s climate becomes warmer and drier, some cropping activities may become a more viable agricultural activity than dairying, and therefore be an economic opportunity for the Region. The opportunity to plant crops that are more resilient to warmer and drier weather and poorer quality soils may also mitigate the negative economic climate impacts on the Region.

Additionally opportunities for using broadacre cropping outputs as biomass for biofuels and bio-energy also exist. The production of bio-fuels and bio-energy represent a potential growth industry of the Barwon South West.


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8. Regional partner strategic discussion A regional discussion was held on 10 October 2013, with participants representing regional partners and the Project Control Group members. The regional partner organisations represented were:

• Barwon Water

• Corangamite Catchment Management Authority

• Department of Environment and Primary Industries

• Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority

• Parks Victoria

• Powercor

• Soil Carbon Research Program (DEPI)

• VicRoads

• Wannon Water

• Western Coastal Board

During the discussion the results of the regional vulnerability assessment were presented, and initial risks and actions to address these risks were identified.

The involvement of the regional partners is integral to building the resilience of the Region. The partners are responsible for key components of the Region which will be impacted by the projected changes to the weather as well as being necessary in any responses. This includes critical infrastructure, water, coasts and catchment management. All these elements are used by and relied upon by the community and the involvement of all aspects of the Region is necessary for a holistic and effective adaptation response.

8.1 Risks Taking the findings from Stage 1 of the Project into consideration (as outlined in Section 4 of this report), the group undertook an activity which focused on identifying the main risks for their organisations and for the Region. This was based on a suite of scenarios made up of the expected future changes to the climate exposure (temperature, precipitation, sea level rise) and the Region’s sensitivities (social, economic and environmental).

The risk statements that were raised are in the following table.

Exposure Indicator

Vulnerability Indicator


Temperature

An increase in mean temperature and/or extreme heat events could lead to:

• Health impacts on vulnerable people

• Increased recreational use of waterways

• Increased costs from needing to build resilience

• Potentially reduced economic growth

• Increased water needs/demand (mainly irrigation and outdoor)

• People and businesses lose access to water and energy (load shedding, inadequate back up/generators)

• An increased risk of bushfire

– fire damages infrastructure

– fire impacts water

• Impacts on ecological functions, reducing ecosystem services – habitat loss and more favourable habitat for pests


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Exposure Indicator



quality and yield

• Increased evaporation and transpiration reducing water resource availability and increasing water required for irrigation

• Direct damage to crops

• Blue green algae risk increases

• Salinity, eutrophication

• Reduced waterway flows, water quality (including temperature), including estuaries and wetlands

Precipitation

A decrease in precipitation and less frequent 50mm rainfall events could lead to:

• Increased water restrictions

• Inability to water gardens/playing fields

• Corangamite Catchment Management Authority - loss of onground works (approx. $1 mill per year)

• VicRoads –

– Linear cracking increases on roads

– Drainage requirements

– Climate change not used in current design

– Increase landslips increases infrastructure costs

• Increase in bushfires reduces water quality

• Increased flooding events increases fish kills (estuaries)

• Increasing bushfire risk increases the impacts on biodiversity (populations e.g. fish) due to fragmentation – wiped out, especially refugia sites

• Increased acid sulphate soils

• Increased demand for dams/ fire control/ etc – all impacting on natural resource management assets


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Exposure Indicator



Sea Level Rise

A SLR and/or storm surge could lead to:

• Higher demand to access the coast but could be restricted access

• Community expectation of coast access, increased restrictions, difficult to manage – education needed

• Private land impacted by inundation after public land – who is liable for protection e.g. Port Fairy private properties – public liability and apportioning

• Policy uncertainty and changes (comparing new beneficiaries pay approaches in flood commission)

• Tourism impacts – curtailed for any reason – loss of tourism and income – caravan parks in particular

• Managing development (subdivisions) in exposed areas, more people and properties exposed, and more cost to move infrastructure if retreat needed

• Increased pressure on available/viable land to develop and use

• Great Ocean Road and other single roads access/ egress – will shrink access routes, also emergency response impacts

• Loss of habitat mangroves, salt marshes (less sunlight), less blue carbon capture

Table 9: Regional risks

8.2 Actions As part of the Regional Partners strategic discussion, a range of themes were identified. These were used as a basis of the listing of further work areas and projects that were prioritised and are detailed in Section 9.

The themes that were identified were seen as activities that could mitigate against the risks presented as a result of the projected changes to the climate for the Region, that were presented in Section 4.


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8.3 The key challenges Through each of the strategic discussions, the consideration of risks and projects also raises the issue of gaps and barriers to action that could, or should, be addressed. Similar themes emerged at the regional partners’ level as in the Municipal strategic discussions, including information and governance.

To overcome the gaps and barriers identified, a range of actions were identified as part of the workshop. These opportunities fed into the actions discussed and prioritised as part of the Project Reference Group meeting on 11 November and were used to develop a list of priority project themes for the Region. Further detail on these projects and the assessment process is detailed in Section 9 and Appendix 5.

Limited resources

The extensive list of risk statements and possible actions developed also present a dilemma – Councils and Partners do not have the resources to implement all actions. Disciplined qualification of the risks and benefits of action is essential to ensure effective allocation of scarce resources. Prioritisation should take account of multiple criteria which may include:

• Significance of risk and remedy to regional wellbeing. This covers both the scale of the impact and its immediacy i.e. will the risk play out in the short, medium or longer term

• Complexity of action and extent to which early wins can be crystallised

• Resources and funds required to implement the action, and availability of separate funding sources

• Opportunities to add to the collective national and global knowledge bank through the identification of innovative and collaborative options.

In the prioritisation process, detailed in Section 9, these considerations are taken into account through simple multi-criteria analysis that picks up on these key constraints and considers them in the assessment criteria. The weighting of the criteria is a secondary layer to qualifying the projects and reflects the most important components in the assessment for the Councils and Partners.

Knowledge gaps

Gaps in information and knowledge were identified as part of the analysis of exposure and sensitivity in Stage One. The strategic discussions also identified risks that were based on perceptions and ‘beliefs’. These gaps are explored below along with some considerations for the development of responses. These gaps were also included in the development of the list of regional projects.

• Thresholds and tipping points – this refers to the key unknowns associated with the implicit resilience of assets, infrastructure and flora and fauna. That is, what is the impact on the reliability of supply and operational limits of essential services when under pressure (from both increased demand as well as climatic-related events), at what pace can ecosystems and species adapt before they die out, at what point are certain industries no longer viable?

• Mapping and modelling – there is an array of additional considerations that could be modelled or mapped to provide further information on which to base decisions. This includes hazard mapping, bushfire modelling to incorporate climate change, demographics, etc.

In some cases, issues are relevant to, and support, broader national or global understanding. Advocacy and public policy engagement may be considered to encourage other bodies to ‘own’ certain research actions. Collaboration with research institutions may be considered.

Service providers should consider questions on reliability of supply and engage with Councils to enable risks to be appropriately qualified.


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Lack of control

Knowledge gaps discussed above highlight a key challenge: interdependencies of risks and impacts complicate analysis and prioritisation of actions. In many cases risks flow from areas that are outside the control of councils, partners or the geographic boundaries of the Region e.g. downstream impacts of catchments outside the Barwon South West Region.

The lack of control can be partly addressed through strong governance and highly effective stakeholder engagement. These actions will bring together, motivate and ultimately mobilise resources both within and outside the bounds of control of the councils and partners, to the extent possible.

A lack of control is also often a symptom of poorly identified roles and responsibilities and a lack of ownership or management. These issues were raised in the strategic discussions as barriers to building climate resilience in the Region.


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8.4 Interdependencies The World Economic Forum’s 2013 Global Risk Report highlighted the need to consider risks as a complex system of interconnections. Risk interdependencies need to be understood for prioritisation and responses to be meaningful.

Figure 25 The complexity of interdependencies Source: World Economic Forum

Interdependencies between social, environmental and economic risks were explored at a high level. The following table of interdependencies demonstrate how a primary event may cascade into a multi-dimensional problem. In the assessment of risks and prioritisation of actions, it is therefore important to reflect on which action relates to which cluster of risks and impacts.


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Climate effects Cascading impacts and interdependencies

Examples

Extreme heat events

Impacts on infrastructure/asset performance in particular energy network assets

• Stress on energy infrastructure (lines, substations) due to excessive heat

Higher energy and water demand • Increase in household, industry and council expenses (e.g. cooling costs)

• Increase in industry costs (especially agriculture for irrigation)

• Increased social hardship from cost of living pressures from increases in energy, water and food prices

• Disruption to supply to businesses and residents due to load shedding and/or inadequate back-up facilities to provide for increased demand

Impacts on community health and well being (especially the vulnerable)

• Health impacts on elderly, babies and young children, immobile and remote communities (reduced access to cooling)

• Increased pressure on emergency management and recovery services (particularly for larger towns that may be relied upon)

• Pressure on public spaces used as a heat refuges

• Increased domestic violence and social isolation post events

• Pressure on health services

• Closure of schools and impact on working parents

• Disruption of telecommunication services in extreme events (e.g. Warrnambool loss of service for 4-5 days)

• Disruption to emergency response when dependency on sole telecommunications or other provider of services critical to emergency response


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Examples

Loss of economic productivity from existing activities (agricultural)

• Changed nature of agricultural activity (e.g. shift from grazing to cropping)

• Potential loss of employment opportunities

• Damage to crops

• Decline in agricultural activity and productivity with fall in yields and animal impacts

• Decline in tourism from degradation of ecotourism assets and accommodation

• Decline in forestry

• Displacement of local businesses

• Reduction in economic growth

Impacts on ecosystem functioning, vegetation and natural assets (including wetlands, lakes, estuaries, bushland, coastal habitats)

• Habitat loss

• Reduced ecosystem services

• Favorable conditions and habitat for some pests

• Damage to vegetation including crops, bushland and timber plantations

• Increased risk of blue green algae

• Decrease in water yield and run-off due to increased evaporation

• Increased soil salinity and eutrophication

• Increase in acid sulphate soils

Increased bushfire risk • Fire damage to infrastructure and assets

• Fire impacts on water quality and water yield

• Impacts on biodiversity (fragmentation of habitats and destruction of refugia sites)


• Increased demand and stress on water assets e.g. dams for fire control

Cost of building resilience in assets and community

• Increase in council and agency/partner costs service provision and asset management

• Disruption to lagoon-based sewerage treatment plant operation


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Examples

Sea level rise Inundation of coastal land and properties

• Inundation of coastal areas and reduced capacity of drainage network

• Inundation of roads and in particular the Great Ocean Road, affecting access and egress routes across the Region, with impacts also on emergency response

• Isolation of communities during floods and coastal inundation

• Loss of public land buffer along the coast

• Impacts on liabilities and apportionment

• Policy uncertainty (e.g. newly introduced beneficiaries payment approaches in Flood Commission recommendations)

• Impacts on tourism and loss of income especially caravan parks

• Impacts on coastal crown land reservation purposes (surf clubs, port facilities, yacht clubs, conservation areas)

• Increased potential pollution of waterways from septic tank contamination and health and ecosystem (e.g. fish kills) impacts

• Inundation of coastal aquifers – impact on water supply

• Erosion and exposure of coastal landfill (disused) causing pollution threat

Inundation of private properties • Decrease in land values (e.g. land degradation) in inundated areas

• Loss of residential properties through coastal inundation and consequent rebuilding costs

• Increased associated maintenance and remediation costs

• Changes to infrastructure needs, including if there is retreat from an area the costs of redundant infrastructure and costs to service new areas

• Increased development pressure on remaining viable land


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Examples

Inundation of habitats • Loss of native flora and increase in invasive species and disease (loss of biodiversity)

• Increase in salinity

• Loss of mangrove habitat, salt marshes and reduced blue carbon capture

Loss of coastal land through erosion • Loss of residential and commercial properties through coastal erosion

Increased storminess, storm surge and wave run-up

• Restricted access and egress to coastal areas (temporary and long term) including public assets (e.g. piers, lookouts)

• Community unrest due to restricted access to coastal public area/assets

• Impacts on tourism and loss of income especially caravan parks

Extreme rainfall events

Inundation of low lying developed areas

• Isolation of businesses and communities during floods and coastal inundation

• Access and egress restricted due to inundation of transport routes

• Isolation of communities during floods

• Loss of residential and commercial properties through inundation and consequent rebuilding costs

Inundation of low lying natural areas • Increased fish kills in estuaries and rivers due to flood waters

Inundation of infrastructure • Failure of (low lying) water and utility infrastructure due to flash flooding

• Increase in the costs of maintenance and repair of assets

• Negative hygiene impacts (e.g. blocked sewerage systems, contaminated water)

Decreased annual rainfall

Reductions in environmental water flows

• Contamination of aquifer supplies

• Reduced rainfall captured (utility assets and water tanks)

• Impact on habitats and species

• Loss of wetlands and associated impacts


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Examples

• Soil erosion and increased salinity

• Loss of native flora and increase in invasive species and disease (loss of biodiversity/wetlands)

• Impact on water quality (reduced flows, drainage capacities, overflows etc.)

• Impact to infrastructure integrity and performance

• Damage to road infrastructure – increase in linear cracking

• Increase in maintenance costs and upgrades (drainage requirements)

Decrease in water yields • Increased water restrictions

• Increased cost of water

• Inability to water gardens, recreation areas, public spaces and playing fields

Loss of economic productivity from existing activities

• Decline in agricultural, forestry and local business productivity (Inc. tourism)

• Disruption to on ground works programs (e.g. councils, agencies as well as Corangamite and Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority works)

Increased landslips • Increased infrastructure costs

• Increased maintenance and upgrade costs

Increased bushfire risk • Fire damage to infrastructure and assets

• Fire impacts on water quality and water yield

• Impacts on biodiversity (fragmentation of habitats and destruction of refugia sites)


• Increased demand and stress on water assets e.g. dams for fire control

Decrease in food security and potable water

• Decline in agricultural, forestry and local business productivity (Inc. tourism)

Table 10 Cascading impacts and interdependencies


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9. Regional priority projects The main objective of Phase One of the Project was to identify a range of priority projects that can be further scoped and undertaken in Phase Two.

Drawing on the findings of the vulnerability assessment, a number of potential projects were identified which aim to mitigate the key risks arising from the projected changes to the Region’s climate. These risks, identified through strategic discussions with Councils and Project Partners, were outlined in Sections 6 and 8.

These potential projects were gathered through:

• Strategic discussions

• Analysis of the risks and vulnerability of Region

• Consideration of better practice adaptation responses.

To identify the priority projects, this listing of projects was considered using multi-criteria analysis. Eight key criteria were developed for this project. This prioritisation process was undertaken by the Project Reference Group, as part of a workshop, on 11 November 2013.

Regional-level projects focus on the actions that require, or benefit from, collaboration across organisations and geographic locations. These are complementary to the short to medium term actions, identified through municipal strategic discussions, that Councils should take in the development of their own detailed adaptation plans.

9.1 Assessment criteria The assessment criteria and scoring scale for prioritising the actions are shown in Table 11 below. As part of the workshop process, the Project Reference Group weighted the criteria based on their view of the relative importance of each category. These weightings are included in the table below.

Criteria Explanation Score Weighting (%)

Gap and needed for progress

This refers to the size of the gap created by not having this project in terms of knowledge, infrastructure

It also considers whether this project is needed before other projects can be undertaken i.e. are other projects dependent on the outcome of this one

Five is large gap and high need for progress

One is small gap and not needed for progress

25

Regional significance

This refers to the degree of significance to the Region that this project is based on or related to.

Five is very significant to the Region

One is not very significant

15

Scale of impact This refers to the size of impact on relevant people, infrastructure, etc if an extreme event or gradual change in the climate occurs.

Five is very high

One is low

20


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Criteria Explanation Score Weighting (%)

Quick win This refers to the speed with which the project can be implemented and completed, thus allowing a ‘quick win’ to be achieved by undertaking the project. This may be influenced by the size or complexity of the project or lead times for approvals, preparation or co-ordination of parties involved, for example.

Five is a very quick win (e.g. a few weeks)

One is a long-term project (e.g. more than two years)

5

Net cost (cost minus any funding available)

This refers to the monetary cost of a project, taking into account any funding that is likely to be available to contribute to the cost. The assessment is made based on the cost that remains once funding has been taken into account.

Five is low net cost (e.g. free)

One is high net cost (e.g. over $1 million)

5

Demonstrates the value of working together

This refers to the level of collaboration and mutual benefit achieved by working together in undertaking this project and the results it achieves.

High value may be achieved through a greater number of parties that will benefit from the results or a high level of collaboration in undertaking the project.

Five is high value of working together

One is low value of working together

10

Immediacy This refers to the urgency with which a project needs to be undertaken. This may be due to the high risk of an event occurring and no relevant response/ information currently being available. An event may be considered high risk due to its likelihood or consequence.

Five is very immediate/urgent

One is low immediacy/urgency

15

Innovation - Australia

This refers to the level of innovation that a particular project involves, in the domestic context. A high level of innovation will be considered better practice and be more likely to be leveraged by other regions.

Five is highly innovative

One is common response

5

Table 11: Assessment criteria


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9.2 Priority regional projects Using the criteria above, a list of potential regional projects were considered, scored and prioritised.

To highlight the objective and relevance of each of the projects, they have been presented in relation to the themes of risks they are designed to address. The projects have also been tiered to include the priority projects as the first tier. These are the top 10 scoring project themes, which will be further considered and potentially pursued as part of Phase Two of the Project. This list is an initial list only and is subject to further scoping and refinement and may change as a result.

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Risk theme Risks Tier 1 (priority) projects

Assets and services

Increase in coastal erosion

Flood damage to coastal assets, higher maintenance and repair costs

Storm surges resulting in changes to infrastructure needs in coastal areas

Loss of residential and commercial properties through fire or coastal inundation

Land use planning - share better practice in embedding climate resilience in council land use planning

Information gaps/barriers

Understanding of ongoing localised impacts of the projected changes to the climate

Internal capacity building through SimClim training

Stress on critical infrastructure due to extreme heat, sea level rise, flooding

Loss of residential and commercial property

Cost of repair, maintenance, rebuilding, relocation of assets

Impact on community health and wellbeing

Impact on local economy due to impact on industry and workers

Increased stress on environment and ecosystems across the Region

Internal risk identification and assessment


• Assets at risk register



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Im patRisk theme Risks Tier 1 (priority) projects

Agriculture Loss of productivity, decreased yields

A change in the nature of agricultural uses (e.g. grazing to cropping)

Mapping of extent of sensitive agricultural areas

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Economic impacts of changes to extreme events

Reduced productivity due to environmental degradation associated with heat stress and less rainfall

Impacts on tourism due to change in temperatures, critical infrastructure impacts (e.g. roads)

Coastal erosion and inundation – impacts on tourist and other assets

Stress on environment will impact on nature-based tourism

Sectoral studies into impacts (including thresholds and tipping points) and opportunities:

• Tourism

• Environment


• Agriculture

Increase in cost of emergency response including pressure on council services and resources

Greater frequency and severity of storms and bushfires will lead to increased costs of maintenance, repair and replacement of assets and infrastructure

Secondary costs such as loss of productivity when staff cannot work, social issues such as illness

Analysis of extreme events – costs, impacts and stress tests:

• Regional case study to inform decision makers and community

• Standardised reporting at an organisational level e.g. template – costs, resources required to recover, what happened, etc.

Community health and wellbeing

Heat stress, increased dehydration, greater demand for water

Reduced water availability due to reduced rainfall

Study into the resilience of the water systems in unserviced water areas


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Im patRisk theme Risks Tier 1 (priority) projects

Infrastructure Increase in costs of maintenance and repair

Loss of access routes during storm events (e.g. localised flooding)

Erosion of cliffs and land alongside the roadways, increased risk of landslide

Impacts on infrastructure performance, causing transport delays and disruption

Identify hot spots along the Great Ocean Road and other key roads (e.g. flooding, inundation, extreme heat) for modelling in 2030 and 2070

Investigate how increased temperatures might impact upon the design life of road seals

Prepare response plan

Increased likelihood of bushfire

Impact on community, environment, assets and infrastructure

Modelling of bushfires incorporating future climate change impacts

Table 12: Regional priority actions

The second and third tier projects did not score as high as the Tier 1 priority projects, and may be considered less critical now, however they may be valuable projects to reassess and consider in the future. These additional projects, which were considered and assessed as part of the prioritisation process, are listed below and grouped by risk theme.

Risk theme Tier 1 (priority) projects Tier 2 projects Tier 3 projects

Assets and services – Council and organisation

Land use planning - share better practice in embedding climate resilience in council land use planning

Embed climate futures into partner and other key agency strategies, plans and programs (part of prioritisation of actions)

Climate proof council contracts and procurement

Internal capacity building through SimClim training

Identify and prepare Guidance Manuals (Council buildings and resilience)

Build climate risk into Council budgeting

Internal risk identification and assessment


• Assets at risk register


Build resilience considerations into council building management, upgrades and new (building resilience assessments/protocols)

Incorporate climate change into emergency response - review council emergency response procedures in light of project findings

Build resilience considerations into asset upgrades and capital works decision making


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Economic impacts of changes to extreme events

Sectoral studies into impacts and opportunities:

• Tourism

• Environment


Detailed coastal hazard mapping

• Erosion

• Inundation

• Trial other sea level rise / storm surge tool (e.g. ACE CRC, SimClim)

Analysis of extreme events – costs, impacts and stress tests:

• Regional case study to inform decision makers and community

• Standardised reporting at an organisational level e.g. template – costs, resources required to recover, what happened, etc.

Agriculture Mapping of extent of sensitive agricultural areas

Sectoral study into impacts and opportunities for the agricultural sector


Study into the resilience of the water systems in unserviced water areas

Complete regional adaptation plan

Revise Climate Resilience Roadmap (CRR) accordingly

Infrastructure Identify hot spots along the Great Ocean Road and other key roads (e.g. flooding, inundation, extreme heat) for modelling in 2030 and 2070

Investigate how increased temperatures might impact upon the design life of road seals

Prepare response plan

Include climate risk in infrastructure design manual (including resilience assessment for assets and climate proofing and review of design guidelines for councils’ key infrastructure)


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Bushfire Modelling of bushfires incorporating future climate change impacts

Information gaps/ barriers

SimClim extreme events modelling for summer period (excluding mountain ranges)

Demographics for 2030 and/or 2050 and then redoing social sensitivity analysis

Table 13: Tiered regional projects

9.3 The next step - implementation Phase Two of the Project is intended for Councils and partners to develop and implement specific projects that will mitigate the risks that have been identified in Phase One. The priority project themes have been outlined above, and can be further considered as part of Phase Two, as part of the decision-making process on which key areas to progress.

The next step, which will be performed as part of Phase Two, is to develop detailed project scopes for the chosen priority themes identified above as well as identifying and allocating timing, key lead organisation, parties involved, resources required, roles and responsibilities.

To ensure the successful implementation of projects addressing climate risk and resilience, there are three complementary areas which must be considered. Through the health check and the strategic discussions, these were identified as gaps across the Region.

These key areas are governance, stakeholder engagement and embedding climate risk considerations into decision making processes.

Governance and commitment

The governance arrangements for Phase Two could utilise the existing governance framework established for Phase One. Considerations for governance include the development of a climate adaptation vision for the Barwon South West Region and identification and clarification of roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders. Separate devolved governance arrangements may need to be established for individual projects, if a project is of sufficient scale or complexity to warrant alternative arrangements.

The first steps of Phase Two should focus on detailed scoping of priority projects, drawing on the themes identified in this Report. Project scoping will consider and articulate the actions to be undertaken for the project, the responsibilities and involvement of key lead organisations and supporting stakeholders, timeframes for implementation and delivery, funding, resources for implementation and reporting protocols. Monitoring and evaluation of the respective projects should also be considered during the early stages of the projects to ensure any key performance indicators (KPIs) are built into the project to allow the implementation of the project and its effectiveness to be measured.

When assigning roles and responsibilities for individual projects, it is recommended that the holistic approach is analysed to consider whether the ownership assigned is equitable, realistic and relevant. It is not advisable to have a single organisation responsible for all projects, due to resource and equity constraints.


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Stakeholder engagement

A stakeholder engagement strategy is a key component for the successful implementation of priority projects. Properly engaging internal and external stakeholders will influence the effective implementation of the projects by creating awareness and support for action. Stakeholder engagement is also important in the ongoing incorporation of the products generated by projects such as mapping, modelling, case studies, strategies and plans into decision making processes and further adaptation action across the Region. The identification of champions across the Region is a better practice method, to be used in conjunction with other approaches, of raising awareness and gaining the interest and buy-in from stakeholders on the need to address climate risks and build resilience through adaptation.

Project stakeholders also include those organisations which are interested in the project but are not responsible for its delivery. These stakeholders must also consider their own engagement strategies to ensure they engage with, and support, the project owners. This is a key component of ensuring they leverage the project to realise maximum benefit from their involvement.

Additional considerations around stakeholder engagement and associated engagement plans include:

• Providing information to key stakeholders on how they can take effective action to address climate risks and how they can engage in identifying means to address risks

• The means which information will be provided to key stakeholders (i.e. consider engagement methods including informing, consulting and collaboration and their associated tools such as fact sheets, websites, workshops and public forums)

• The need for any specific communication plans for particular stakeholders with targeted messages on climate risk

• Promoting the Region’s commitment on adaptation and the actions being taken to respond to a changing climate through targeted communications

• Communicating to staff in partner organisations the risks of a changing climate and the importance of providing attention to climate adaptation needs

• Providing tailored climate risk training/education to key internal partner stakeholders and embedding awareness of climate effects in executive leadership development programs/training.

Embedding into decision making processes

Ensuring that the ongoing projects and their outputs are effectively utilised and embedded into decision making will be the critical success factor in building the capacity and resilience of the Region. Mapping of organisational decision making processes will assist in identifying touch points where climate adaptation could be incorporated into a range of aspects of the organisation including development and review of strategic and operational documents, budgeting, emergency management planning and the systems and tools used by decision makers in decision making processes.

Embedding climate adaptation into an organisation as early as possible will be rewarded by greater depth of integration and take-up by internal stakeholders in their decision making processes.

Further considerations for embedding climate adaptation into decision-making include:

• Ensuring all risks identified at asset level are factored into site-specific partner asset management plans and addressed as necessary within portfolios

• Considering potential climate effects to inform decisions on existing property and infrastructure assets in exposed hotspots in the Region

• Development of procedures/guidance materials to ensure that climate resilience is incorporated into all future design and planning of new developments of infrastructure and assets.


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Appendix 1 – Better practice research The research below provides councils and partners with better practice examples to assist them in developing and undertaking actions to build their adaptive capacity.

Better practice criteria

Description Example

Complying: Statutory requirements

Complies with statutory requirements

Compliance with a variety of climate change impact related legislation requirements.

Local, State and Federal Government legislative requirements

Strategic planning actions: Incorporating climate change considerations in the Municipal Health and Wellbeing Plans and other strategic and urban planning documents.

Operational actions: Setting up municipal emergency management planning and fire committees, employing Municipal Emergency Resource and Fire Prevention Officers, allocating neighbourhood safer places, maintaining vegetation and clearance of space around power lines.

Engaging: Governance and participatory processes

Led by the Executive34

Adaptation plans are endorsed and progress is reviewed regularly by the Executive to secure a high level of support and integration across Council.

Rotterdam Climate Initiative (The Netherlands)

The Rotterdam Climate Initiative (RCI) is a permanent partnership of four parties; The City of Rotterdam, The Port of Rotterdam, Deltalinqs (representation of the corporate sector in Rotterdam) and the Environmental Protection Agency. The RCI is directed by a board that includes the Mayor of Rotterdam and industry executives. The strength of the RCI is that it combines key stakeholders into a single, permanent body with authoritative power and a political mandate. As a result, projects and plans put forward by the RCI receive widespread support and have sufficient resources for implementation.

34 Senior leadership team of Council


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Description Example

Integrates throughout the organisation

Adaptation plans are integrated across departments (e.g. urban planning, community services, finance) and into Council’s core business via business plans, strategies and allocation of resources.

City of Greater Geelong (Victoria)

Climate change impacts affect every internal division within Council. It is therefore essential that climate change impacts and responses are considered in an integrated manner. The City of Greater Geelong has identified a series of processes to support the implementation of its climate change adaptation plan:

• Cross Council Adaptation Working Group: multi-disciplinary working group to oversee the implementation of the Adaptation Strategy

• Climate Change risks integrated into existing risk management procedures: a centralised database that contains climate change risks and adaptation actions integrated with:

o Council’s risk register

o Existing risk management processes.

• Division level risk accountability: each division is responsible for conducting its own climate change risk assessment.

Engages and empowers key stakeholders

Sufficient engagement of internal and external stakeholders to create adequate understanding and support for adaptation planning.

Glenorchy City Council (Tasmania)

The Glenorchy City Council has identified education and awareness as a key component of their climate change adaptation plan. The plan focuses on internal and external engagement:

• Internal: inform, educate and engage Council representatives, management and personnel about climate change risks and Council adopted adaptation measures

• External: increase public awareness about the potential impacts of climate change and actions taken by Council to reduce these.

Via integrating education and awareness throughout the process of adaptation planning (and therefore into the implementation phases) Glenorchy City Council increases the opportunity for internal and external engagement, capacity building, collaboration and successful outcomes that meet a variety of stakeholders needs.


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Description Example

Inspires partnerships across geographic and political boundaries

Council engagement with relevant jurisdictions (and/or other stakeholders) to effectively address climate risks (e.g. through cross-border/multi-stakeholder arrangements).

Gold Coast City Council and Tweed Shire (Queensland)

The Gold Coast City Council and Tweed Shire have developed a Sub-Plan. The Sub-Plan recognises that there can be a disconnect between emergency management arrangements between local government areas. The plan means to overcome these differences, should a disaster simultaneously impact both sides of the State border. In 2010 the Sub-Plan was incorporated into local disaster management plans of both Councils.

Assessing: Risk identification and assessment

Takes a robust approach towards risk assessment

Climate risks are identified and assessed using a robust methodology, taking into account the latest peer reviewed climate change science and relevant assessment considerations e.g. exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity etc.

City of Cottesloe (Western Australia)

Cottesloe faces the prospect of increased coastal erosion from climate change. The Town of Cottesloe commissioned a climate change vulnerability assessment in order to prepare for the challenges climate change presents to managing and maintaining coastal resources and infrastructure. The Cottesloe Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Project identified the potential risks to existing key coastal infrastructure under a range of future climate scenarios and the options available to treat the risks. A list of key asset and service delivery areas was developed to ensure that the impacts from climate change were aligned to accountabilities within local government. The project combines international better practice with the Australian Government’s approach to climate change risk management as set out in the report, Climate change impact and risk management: A guide for business and government.35 In formulating an approach, a key consideration was the development of a set of methods and tools that could be readily used by coastal Local Governments throughout Australia.

Identifies risk interdependencies and cumulative impacts

Understanding interdependencies between different risks is integral to understanding potential contagion effects and cumulative impacts. This understanding will

City of Melbourne (Victoria)

The City of Melbourne (CoM) is one of the first councils in Australia to take a leading position in climate change adaptation. Since 2007 CoM has undertaken a comprehensive assessment of Melbourne’s future risks from climate change for timescales of 2010, 2030 and 2070. In order to identify interdependencies between key risks the CoM is using cascading consequence diagrams. These diagrams map the cascading nature of implications from a single climatic event

35 http://www.climatechange.gov.au/tags/business


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Description Example

assist in prioritising actions for building resilience.

or variable (e.g. drought causes insufficient water supply,which may then reduce water quality and subsequently cause an increase in health problems). It provides an appreciation of the relationships of event impacts and implications and can help identify factors that may cause cumulative impacts. In developing the consequence diagrams CoM looked at risks in the following areas: water, transport and mobility, buildings and property, social health and community, business and industry, energy and communications and emergency services sectors.

Responding: Action planning and implementation

Addresses uncertainty with flexibility

Principals for addressing inherent uncertainty in decision making include:

1. Resilient strategies: select a strategy that can be modified as more information is made available.

2. Scenario planning: consider multiple outcomes under various scenarios.

3. Adaptive management: identify the range of possible future circumstances and seek to invest in initiatives that address these.

City of New York (United States of America)

With 578 miles of coastline shouldering residential, commercial and industrial neighbourhoods, the City of New York faces the threat from the rising sea-level and storm-related coastal flooding, as demonstrated by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. To allow for an adequate response the Council commissioned the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), to develop a plan and supporting tools on how to adapt New York City to a changing climate.

At the very centre of the plan is the notion that climate change adaptation strategies should be incorporated into the management plans of critical city infrastructure through a mechanism called Flexible Adaptation Pathways. This mechanism suggests that strategies can evolve through time as climate risk assessment, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and monitoring continue. In terms of resilient strategies, it was noted to introduce design standards that are recalibrated depending on the climate change projects, so that long-lasting infrastructure will be prepared to withstand future threats. Adaptive management was addressed by means of focussing on strategies for responding to incremental changes (e.g., annual temperature and precipitation changes) as well as low probability, high impact events (e.g., extreme coastal flooding exacerbated by sea level rise), and link investments to the level of risk at a relevant point in time (.e. phased strategies). NPCC incorporated scenario planning by establishing a climate change monitoring program to track and analyse key climate change factors, impacts and evolving-knowledge indicators, to gain understanding of the performance of options against changing conditions.


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Description Example

Considers the true cost of initiatives

Adaptation options are assessed and prioritised against their ability to address risks in an efficient manner (e.g. no-or-low regret options), aligning with known vulnerabilities, the principles of equity and the respective cost imposed on society.

Ku-ring-gai Council (New South Wales)

Ku-ring-gai Council has developed a cost benefit assessment tool which ranks climate change risk on a local scale and establishes a means to determine the appropriate level and timing of responses. In the model, costs equal the impact to the Triple Bottom Line and benefits equal the ability of the adaptation to reduce hazard specific risks. Unlike many other analyses, each adaptation action is tested against a set of questions/criteria to address aspects of equity, natural resource conservation and true cost. The tool balances the considerations of natural environment, the economy and social and community considerations.

Prioritises initiatives that create synergies

Key risks are addressed in the action plan, taking note of potential opportunities for implementing solutions that respond to a variety of risks.

Salisbury City Council (South Australia)

The state of South Australia is experiencing increasing seasonal droughts. To secure a reliable water supply and manage flooding impacts, Salisbury City Council has been constructing wetlands as an integral part of storm water drainage systems. All new residential subdivisions in the last ten years have been required to install wetlands to contain storm water on site as much as possible. The strategy has resulted in greater flood control and harvesting of water for reuse and aquifer recharge. This example demonstrates how looking at interdependencies between climate events (heavy rain versus drought) helps trigger solutions. By considering alternate scenarios and responding in a holistic fashion, municipalities can be better prepared and are able to identify win-win adaptation options.

Demonstrates balance across initiatives

Initiatives to build resilience consider immediate and long-term needs, and show diversity including coverage of technological, behavioural, managerial, and policy-related actions.

City of New York (United States of America)

The City of New York report “A stronger, more resilient New York” plan combines system-by-system thinking with geographical focused interventions of how to improve citywide infrastructure. The plan combines this with a strong public engagement processes. The analysis within the plan covers 11 key areas: coastal protection, built environment, insurance, energy, healthcare, telecommunications, transportation, water and wastewater, solid waste, food supply and parks. For each area the risks to extreme and gradual weather events are identified as well as tailored responses to address risks.


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Description Example

Monitoring: Measuring, monitoring and review

Remains relevant, up to date and reflective of current initiatives

Councils have a process in place to review and update adaptation plans regularly.

City of Mandurah (Western Australia)

In 2009, the City of Greater Mandurah launched its Coastal Zone Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan. The Report establishes a process for continuous monitoring, review and improvement of planned resilience activities. Council has committed to review the Plan at two levels:

1. Review and update the risk assessment; and

2. Monitor effectiveness of adaptation actions in treating identified risks.

In order to promote a mainstreamed approach to monitoring and review in Council, the adaptation plan includes a dedicated governance framework. Various Directorates across the City of Mandurah are held responsible for monitoring the effectiveness of the adaptation plan. In addition, there is a key role for a Climate Change Officer to collate updates, report on progress, and update adaptation actions as required. Furthermore, all staff with assigned actions across all departments are responsible for regularly updating the Adaptation Register (i.e. an overview of all pending and current adaptation actions), and forwarding updates to the Climate Change Officer.

Table 14 Better practice research case studies


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Appendix 2 - Vulnerability assessment background and guidance

This appendix provides an outline of the data and indicators that have been used to provide an understanding of the vulnerability of the Barwon South West Region. It also provides guidance on interpretation of the mapping results.

The overall approach being applied uses sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicator layers combined with the climate exposure data to provide an understanding of the overall vulnerability of the Region.

General comment on data layers Source data for each indicator was obtained from a range of sources, scales and data formats, including some non-spatial. Given the data sources no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the maps and GIS layers derived from the source layers can be provided. The supplied information was pre-processed into a consistent format to enable layers to be combined together. From the pre-processed source data Indicator layers were created from one or more source layers. Each indicator layer covers the full extent of the project area. As each source dataset was at a different spatial resolution indicators were joined or “rolled” into SA1 census regions with each census region receiving the highest sensitivity ranking for that indicator. When more accurate or up to date data becomes available it is a simple process to re-create the indicator layers and re-run the multi-criteria analysis to form the three sensitivity and adaptive capacity layers. The source of each data layer is stated in Table 17.

Climate exposure data

Table 15 provides an outline of potential data sources for climate exposure within the Barwon South West Region. Data selected is supported by CSIRO, can provide complete coverage of the Region, address the key climate variables and can be represented spatially. Please note that secondary variable modelling for bushfire conditions and flooding were not included, however where existing regional data was available it has been incorporated in the sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicator layers for environment (refer to Table 17).

Climate variable Data used

Primary

Mean temperature IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites.

Extreme temperature IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites.

Annual rainfall IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites.

Extreme rainfall IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites.

Sea level rise and storm surge

Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries - Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset – Medium scenario for 2100 (0.82m) for both Modelled Extent of Sea Level Rise with a 1 in 100 Year Storm Tide Event using A1FI.

Table 15: Climate exposure data


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Modelling assumptions for primary climate variables have been included in Table 16, highlighting consistencies with approaches applied by CSIRO, Victorian State Government and international better practice.


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Aspect Assumption Comments

Emissions scenario

A1FI The A1FI is a higher emissions growth scenario and assumes a continuation of strong economic growth based on continued dependence on fossil fuels. CO2 concentrations more than triple, relative to pre-industrial levels, by 2100. A global temperature increase of 4.0°C (2.4 to 6.4°C) is likely. This scenario represents the highest level of late 21st century emissions that were thought to be plausible back in 2000. However, recent evidence indicates that CO2 emissions have been growing at a more rapid rate.

This is consistent with the Victorian State Government’s approach for their high-end projections and the sea level rise data as part of the Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset.

Global climate models (GCMs)

All 23 GCMs All GCMs were used unweighted in the modelling.

Year Baseline year of 1990

Mid run projected year of 2030

Long run projected year of 2070

This is consistent with best practice and the Victorian State Government’s approach.

2100 for sea level rise only.

Period Annual This includes all seasons.

Extremes 40oC for extreme heat events

50mm for single rainfall events

35oC used for areas with high sensitivity.

Table 16: Primary climate variable modelling assumptions


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Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators Table 17 is an outline of the key indicators used to measure the sensitivity and adaptive capacity within the Barwon South West Region. These indicators have been ranked based on current sensitivity and adaptive capacity to provide an overview of what the regional trends are. The indicators have been selected so as to provide complete coverage of the Region; address key climate impacts identified and can be represented spatially. These indicators are based existing data sets that outline the current state, demographics or condition and do not include projected changes in these parameters. When combined with the climate exposure layers it provides an indication of overall vulnerability for the Region.

Scope Key climate impacts for Region36

Indicators

Economic37

Built environment

Financial and physical capital

Agriculture sector put under stress, in particular:

• Dairy industry

• Fruit crops

• Viticulture

• Forestry

• Aquaculture

Areas of economic activity for agriculture land use (Source: Victorian State Government)

Soil productivity and degradation (Source: Australian Government, Department of Agriculture)

Water infrastructure put under stress

Decrease in water yield

Increase in water demand

Water supply-demand balance (Source: Wannon Water and Barwon Water)

Power infrastructure put under stress

Increase in electricity demand from winter heating to summer cooling

Energy supply demand (Source: Powercor)

Environment38

Natural environment Reduction in water quality and flows in rivers and wetlands

Wetland extent and condition (Source: Victorian State Government)

Groundwater salinity (Source: University of Ballarat)

Altered species distribution Native vegetation extent and condition (Source: Victorian State Government)

36 Based on Victorian Government findings 2008 – Climate change in the Glenelg Hopkins and Corangamite regions. 37 This excludes tourism and transport infrastructure condition due to limited availability of data. 38 This excludes coastal erosion prone areas due to limited availability of data.


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Scope Key climate impacts for Region36

Indicators

Greater bushfire activity Bushfire prone areas (Source: Victorian State Government)

Inundation from heavy rains and storm events

One in 100 year flood prone areas (Source: Victorian State Government)

Social

Human capital Increase in heat-related health problems, in particular:

• Elderly

• People under physical stress

• Cardiovascular disease

Age (above 65 and living alone and full dependant – four years and under)

Household ownership

Median house income

Non-English speaking backgrounds

Population density (Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics)

Table 17: Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators

Map interpretation

The projections and mapping are to be interpreted with the following as a conceptual guide.

Exposure maps

In summary the exposure maps for total precipitation and mean temperature indicate where it will get wetter (or drier) and hotter within the Region. The sea level rise maps outline the extent of coastal inundation.

Temperature

• Average minimum 2030 and 2070 (oC) – the average annual minimum temperature for the Region experienced in 2030 and 2070

• Average maximum 2030 and 2070 (oC) – the average annual maximum temperature for the Region experienced in 2030 and 2070

• 2030 and 2070 extreme events – days experienced in the Region with any daily recorded maximum temperature over 35oC or 40oC (depending on the sensitivity of Region) for a single day and three consecutive days. Return period relates to the predicted frequency of a particular extreme event in years.


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Precipitation

• Total minimum 2030 and 2070 (mm) – the average annual minimum precipitation for the Region experienced in 2030 and 2070

• Total maximum 2030 and 2070 (mm) – the average annual maximum precipitation for the Region experienced in 2030 and 2070

• 2030 and 2070 extreme events – days experienced in the Region with any daily-recorded precipitation over 50 mm for a single rainfall event. Return period relates to the predicted frequency of a particular extreme event in years.

Sea level rise

• The sea level rise maps outline the extent of inundation from sea level rise with a one in 100 year storm tide scenario for 2100 (0.82m). Please note that a one in 100 year flood prone map replaces the sea level rise maps for municipalities without a coastline.

Sensitivity and adaptive capacity maps

In summary the maps for social, economic and environment indicate where areas will have the highest sensitivity and least adaptive capacity to the projected changes in climate. These maps do not reflect actual data boundaries as these maps have all been consolidated into Census data boundaries. This has been done to provide consistency across the three maps, provide Regional trends and for ease of interpretation.

Social

• The social map indicates human populations, which have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to projected changes in climate.

Economic

• The economic map indicates land use activities, which have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to projected changes in climate.

Environment

• The environment map indicates natural systems, which have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to projected changes in climate.


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Appendix 3 - Climate risk and adaptation template An adaptation plan template, including guidance notes, has been developed for the Councils. This is provided as a separate document, in a writeable form, and also contains a risk assessment matrix that has been pre-populated with 150 risks.

The climate change adaptation plan template and the associated guidance provides Councils with the tools to develop a detailed, tailored adaptation plan. It will build on the information and outcomes of the Climate Resilient Communities (Phase 1) project provided as part of this report and the Regional Report.

Adaptation plan template

The adaptation plan template includes guidance on how to complete each section. The notes in italics should be removed before the document is finalised.

There are a range of toolkits, guidance and better practice examples that can be used in addition to this guidance to assist with the development of an adaptation plan.

Considerations for developing the adaptation plan

In preparing the adaptation plan and delivering for the adaptation options, Councils may consider the following:

• Align the adaptation plan with other climate change or municipality-wide plans

• Acknowledge the links between climate change and other challenges and opportunities the municipality faces (to position the plan more strategically)

• Consider establishing a project team to develop the adaptation plan and maintain the plan beyond its initial completion

• Consider establishing an engagement strategy and relevant tools to raise the level of awareness for climate adaptation amongst Council staff and external stakeholders (e.g. community, industry)

• Consider establishing processes to ensure climate change adaptation is considered in all Council decisions

• Obtain senior management buy-in and support for the climate adaptation plan and underlying actions

• Consider linking the climate adaptation risk register to Council’s existing risk management

• Consider involving industry, business, academia and all tiers of government in identifying and prioritising responses

• Consider creating a register of current adaptation actions to avoid duplication of efforts or for newly identified actions to build on

• Draw on the experience of other municipalities (nationally and internationally), and consider whether these are transferrable in time and space to each municipality’s situation

• Plan for uncertainty by identifying actions that can be readjusted as new information comes to hand (e.g. think in terms of sequence of actions; long-term actions that can be build on short-term actions; actions that do not undermine the ability to adapt over the long term).


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Appendix 4 – Municipal risks by sector Regional sector 1: Natural assets

Climate effect Natural assets – climate risk statements

Increase in mean and extreme temperature

An increase in mean and extreme temperature leading to:

• Droughts and incidents of extreme temperature could lead to changes to decreased run-off and increased evaporation for waterways and aquifers, leading to changes to waterways, lakes and wetlands (e.g. algal bloom, reduced water yield and availability)

• Degradation and damage to ecosystem functioning with wetlands, vegetation and natural assets (wetlands, lakes, estuaries, bushland, native vegetation, endangered and protected ecosystems/species, coastal habitats)

• Degradation and damage to ecosystem functioning with loss of habitat and damage to ecosystem functioning - creating favourable conditions and habitats for pests and invasive species

• Increased risk of algal blooms

• Increase in soil salinity and eutrophication

• Increase in risk of acid sulphate soil problems

• Increase in the intensity and severity of bushfires and grass fires, which negatively impacts on native vegetation (fire so intense it kills seeds and prevents germination)

• Increase in bushfire risk, leading to fire impacts on water quality and yields

• Drought conditions, followed by heavy rainfall and flooding which is more severe

• Increase in bushfire risk leading to fire impacts on biodiversity (fragmentation of habitat and destruction of refugia sites)

• Increase in bushfire risk, leading to fire impacts and an increased risk of acid sulphate soils

• Increase in bushfire risk, leading to increased demand and stress on water assets e.g. dams for fire control


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Climate effect Natural assets – climate risk statements

Increase in the severity of precipitation events

An increase in the severity of precipitation events could lead to:

• Localised flooding resulting in inundation - damage and loss/damage of low lying natural assets

• Localised flooding, resulting in inundation - damage to waterways and fish kills

• Reduction in environmental flows and reduction in water yields and rainfall capture (reduced recharge of aquifers and water tanks etc.)

• Reduction in environmental flows and the contamination of aquifers reduction in environmental flows and impacts on habitats and species

• Reduction in environmental flows and loss of wetlands and associated species loss

• Reduction in environmental flows and an increase in soil erosion, salinity and acid sulphate soils

• Reduction in environmental flows and an increase in invasive species and increased diseases

• Reduction in environmental flows and loss of native flora and fauna habitats reduction in environmental flows and impacts on water quality (reduced flows, drainage capacity, overflows)

Rising sea levels Rising sea levels and coastal inundation could lead to:

• Increase in the erosion of the shore-zones, resulting in the loss of mangroves, salt marshes and other habitats, and reduce blue carbon capture

• Increase in the erosion of the shore-zones and more salt spray and saline intrusion in the water table, resulting in pollution to waterways and water assets erosion of the shore-zone and more salt spray and saline intrusion, causing loss of biodiversity (loss of native vegetation and increase invasive species and diseases)

• Erosion of the shore-zones and more salt spray and saline intrusion of the water table, resulting in damage to vegetation in affected areas and associated maintenance costs

• Higher number of pest species (such as cockroaches and termites) and greater rain penetration and related decay, resulting in damage

Table 18: Climate risk statements - natural assets


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Regional sector 2: Buildings

Climate effect Climate risks - Buildings

An increase in mean temperatures

An increase in mean temperatures can lead to:

• More building maintenance to deal with higher temperatures

• Decrease building stock value

• Higher summer cooling loads on buildings, resulting in increased water and energy demand/costs creating social hardship (energy, water, food, other cost increases)

Rising sea level Rising sea levels and coastal inundation could lead to:

• More frequent and higher storm surges, resulting in decreased land values

• More frequent and higher storm surges, resulting in flood damage to coastal private property

Other climate effects (Combined)

An increase in extreme winds could lead to:

• Higher exposure of built assets and property, resulting in more damage to assets with associated costs and losses of service

• Higher exposure of built assets and property to strong winds, resulting in a higher frequency of falling trees and branches onto assets

Table 19: Climate risk statements - buildings

Regional sector 3: Community wellbeing

Climate effects Climate risks – Community wellbeing

An increase in mean and extreme temperatures

An increase in temperature could lead to:

• Increased soil dryness could lead to more dust particles in the atmosphere, resulting in a higher number of air pollution incidents and health impacts

• Heat stress, solar exposure and reduced thermal comfort for the community resulting in associated health impacts, especially for the most sensitive (elderly, disadvantaged, babies and children, infirmed/immobile)

• Heat stress and solar exposure for the community, resulting in increased social issues such as domestic violence and social isolation post events

• Heat stress and UV exposure for the community, resulting in decreased use of open space and recreational facilities

• Heat stress and solar exposure for the community, resulting in increased illness and/or dehydration related illness

• Heat stress and solar exposure for the community resulting in morbidity (especially elderly, babies, young children, immobile, indigenous communities and remote or indigenous communities)

• Heat stress and solar exposure for the community, resulting in temporary closure of services due to excessive heat (e.g. schools, which impacts on working parents)


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Climate effects Climate risks – Community wellbeing

• Heat stress and solar exposure for the community, resulting in decreased recreational and social activity

• Heat stress and solar exposure for the community, resulting in increased social issues such as domestic violence and social isolation post events


• Affects on roads with access and egress issues and the isolation of communities (especially along the Great Ocean Road)

• Increase in erosion and inundation of the shore-zones, resulting in impacts on coastal land reservation (surf clubs, port facilities, yacht clubs, conservation areas)

• Increased flooding in low-lying areas resulting in the need to restrict access to coastal public assets (piers, walkways, lookouts etc.), thereby potentially creating community concern and unrest

An increase in the severity of precipitation events

An increase in the severity of rainfall could lead to:

• Localised flooding, resulting in inundation damage/blocking of drainage sewerage systems and the contamination of waterways and public health affects

• Localised flooding resulting in people putting themselves at risk in emergency situations

Decreased mean precipitation

A decrease in mean precipitation could lead to:

• Reduction in water yields leading to an increase in water costs

• Increased dust on unsealed roads and increased pollution and health risks

• Decreased food security

• Decreased potable water supply


An increase in the number of extreme heat days could lead to:

• More bushfires, resulting in an increase in smoke and air-borne pollutants and health effects

• Formation of ground level ozone (at a higher rate than current), resulting in increased respiratory problems

Table 20: Climate risk statements - community wellbeing

Regional sector 4: Industry

Climate effects Climate risks – Industry

An increase in mean and extreme temperatures


• Loss of productivity from agricultural activities, leading to:

o Higher product prices, resulting in impacts on community and industry viability

o A change in the nature of agricultural uses (i.e. a shift from grazing to


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Climate effects Climate risks – Industry

cropping)

o Impacts on the local economy

o Displacement of local businesses and potential loss of employment

o Decreased yields – crops, animals and forestry activities

• Crop damage

• Degradation and damage to ecotourism facilities (natural asset, accommodation) and to the impacts on the local economy

• Increase in the intensity and severity of bushfires and grass fires, which negatively impacts on forestry


• Effects on roads, affecting access and egress issues and disruption of businesses (especially with those associated with the utilisation of the Great Ocean Road)

• Increased impacts on fish stocks and fishing activity (i.e. size of crayfish catches) and could lead to an increase and dominance of warm water fish/aquatic species

Increase severity of precipitation events

An increase in severity of precipitation events and increased run-off which could lead to:

• Localised flooding, resulting in problems in trying to adequately educate and inform the transit and tourist population in emergency situations



• Reduction in water availability and increased prices, leading to a loss of economic productivity from existing agricultural and forestry activity.

• Reduction in water availability and could lead to decreases in dairy activities in the south as feed yields from the north decreases

• Reduction and changes in agricultural productivity, leading to farm closures and the migration of people from farms to towns and eventual population decline

• Reduction and change in agricultural productivity, leading to the liquidation of assets for short-term profit


• An increase in the number of extreme heat days could lead to an increase in bushfire risk, leading to fire impacts on property, infrastructure, business/ agriculture/forestry and natural assets.

Rising sea levels, sea temperature and storminess has the potential to lead to impacts on whale and other important migratory species (tuna) and their activities (timing, numbers and routes), impacting also on the tourism industry

Table 21: Climate risk statements - industry


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Regional sector 5: Council assets and services

Risk theme Risk example

Council and community services

• Increased pressure on council health, emergency management and recovery services (particularly for larger towns) in extreme climate events

• Pressure on public spaces used as a heat refuge

• Temporary closure of services due to excessive heat (e.g. schools, outdoor workers)

• Loss in Council rates / revenue and greater pressure on rebate schemes particularly due to property impacts from sea level rise and industry impacts from temperature and precipitation changes

• Accelerate movement of populations from rural to regional towns due to impacts from temperature and precipitation changes


• Negative health impacts, particularly on the elderly, immobile and remote communities, from heat stress, dehydration and potential mental health issues and pressure on services

• Less recreational/social activity in hot and dry weather and pressure on recreational services

• Isolation of communities during floods and coastal inundation and pressure on services

• Decrease in potable water (e.g. contamination of aquifer supplies or less rainfall captured in water tanks)

• Potential loss of employment opportunities and changes to local community viability due to industry impacts from temperature and precipitation changes

• Negative hygiene impacts from blocked sewerage systems and contamination of water sources from pollution

Natural and built assets and infrastructure

• Stress on critical infrastructure (e.g. water and electricity supply) due to peak demand in extreme heat events cascading impacts to council infrastructure

• Stress on critical council infrastructure (low lying) due to sea level rise

• Increase in the costs of maintenance and repair of Council assets (e.g. water for gravel roads; cracking of road surfaces; cracking in buildings, bridges, piers, jetties, stormwater facilities and buildings)

• Coastal cliff erosion and loss of council tourist and other assets

• Loss of residential and commercial properties through fire or coastal inundation and consequent rebuilding costs for properties and associated infrastructure

Energy and water pricing

• Increase in energy and water prices for council due to increase demand in extreme heat event


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Risk theme Risk example

Local economic development

• Decline in agricultural activity and productivity due to increased temperatures with fall in yields, and animal weight gain from lower land viability leading to cascading impact on community resilience

• Changed nature of agricultural activity (e.g. shift from grazing to cropping, or dairying to cropping) and decline in forestry due to increased temperatures and decreased precipitation leading to cascading impact on community resilience

• Decline in tourism from degradation of ecotourism assets and accommodation due to sea level rise and storm surge leading to lost income for councils

• Increase in cost of emergency response including pressure on council services in extreme events

• Displacement of local businesses from a range of changing climate conditions leading to cascading impact on community resilience

• Greater pressure on local festivals and events run by council due to temperature increases

Local and regional ecosystems

• Reductions in environmental water flows due to reduced precipitation and consequent negative impacts on habitats for flora and fauna species in council reserves

• Loss of wetlands due to reduced precipitation

• Soil erosion due to increased temperatures and loss of amenity on council land

• Loss of native flora and increase in invasive species and disease (loss of biodiversity) due to a range of changing climate conditions

• Increase in bushfire intensity and frequency; loss of habitats and increase in salinity

• Inundation of coastal areas due to sea level rise and reduced capacity of council drainage network and increased potential pollution of waterways from septic contamination

Table 22: Climate risk statements - council assets and services


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Regional sector 6: Infrastructure

Climate Effect Infrastructure sector - climate risk statements

Increase in extreme heat days (>40 degree C)


• Impacts on infrastructure performance – all types

• Disruption to services critical to emergency management such as telecommunication services

• Impact on energy network assets, leading to reduced or disrupted infrastructure performance and brown-outs or black-outs

• Impact on energy network assets, leading to reduced or disrupted infrastructure performance and brown-outs or black-outs, leading to increased energy costs and stress/hardship to industry and the community

• Exposure (and heating) of transport and utility infrastructure servicing assets, resulting in loss of power and service provisions to water and wastewater assets and, an increase in the number of environmental and safety/health related incidents

• Exposure of transport and utility infrastructure servicing assets to heating, resulting in railway track buckling / road rutting / bridge expansion joint cracking, subsequently causing transport delays and/or safety incidents

• Higher rate of deterioration of buildings and built assets resulting in higher maintenance costs for roofing, cladding, window and other systems

• Disruption to the functioning of lagoon-based sewerage treatment plants

Increase in severity of precipitation events

An increase in the severity of precipitation events could lead to

• Localised flooding, resulting in inundation infrastructure and increased maintenance and repair costs

• Localised flooding resulting in inundation infrastructure and disruption to services

• Localised flooding, resulting in inundation damage/blocking of drainage sewerage systems and contamination of waterways



• Pressures on main water supplies for towns and some rural areas pressures on water supplies for non-reticulated areas

• Competition for scarce water supply between residents and businesses

• Reduction in environmental flows and impacts on infrastructure integrity and performance (drainage pipes crack in low flows) causing increased maintenance and upgrade costs

• Reduction in environmental flows and damage to road infrastructure including the Great Ocean Road (increase in linear cracking)

• Increased risk of landslides and increased costs to upgrade and maintenance costs infrastructure


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Climate Effect Infrastructure sector - climate risk statements

Rising sea levels Rising sea levels and coastal inundation could lead to:

• Coastal inundation and Increase in tidal prisms and a reduction in intertidal areas, creating higher tidal and wave energies, resulting in the erosion of coastal assets

• Increase in tidal prisms and a reduction in intertidal areas, creating higher tidal and wave energies, resulting in the erosion of coastal assets

• Coastal inundation could lead to the loss and damage to heritage items (e.g. The Breakwater- Warrnambool)

• Coastal inundation could lead to affects on roads, affecting access and egress issues and the reduction in transport routes across the Region (especially along the Great Ocean Road)

• Inundation of coastal landfill (disused) and a pollution threat

• Inundation of coastal aquifers and impacts on water supply

• Inundation of septic tanks, resulting in pollution

• More frequent and higher storm surges, resulting in flood damage to coastal assets (including marinas and boat ramps) and higher maintenance/replacement costs

• More frequent and higher storm surges, resulting in changes to infrastructure needs in coastal areas (redundancy in retreat areas and new servicing need in new areas).

Other climate variables (combined)

• Short-duration droughts could lead to higher pressure on urban water resources, resulting in increased need for alternative water supplies such as wastewater recycling

• An increase in frequency and severity of storms could lead to the higher exposure of electricity and communications infrastructure to rain/wind/lightning, resulting in increased stresses and damage to power lines, pylons, radio masts and mobile phone masts

Table 23: Climate risk statements - infrastructure


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Appendix 5 – Process for prioritising regional projects As part of Phase One of the project, participants were asked to identify and assess a range of priority projects to be undertaken in Phase Two of the project.

The process used to prioritise projects was as follows:

1. Identify list of potential projects (based on mitigating the risks that have been identified across the Region)

2. Score the projects using the assessment criteria set out in Section 9

3. Adjust scores for weighting

4. Prioritise projects based on weighted score

The next step is to further scope the priority projects including identify/allocate timing, key lead organisation, parties involved, resources required, roles and responsibilities, etc.

The complete list of regional projects and their full and weighted scores are listed below and arranged

according to the category of project.

As part of the prioritisation process, the Project Reference Group decided to consider the development of a stakeholder engagement process and plan as a separate project which would complement and run in parallel with the implementation of priority projects. A stakeholder engagement strategy would include a range of communication activities such as those outlined below. As such, the communication projects were not scored and will be considered separately as part of the ongoing project governance.

Similarly, it was decided that funding was an issue that the PCG would consider on an ongoing basis and thus did not warrant consideration as a potential priority project theme and so was not scored as part of the prioritisation process.

# Project Full score Weighted score

Communication – channels, strategy, etc

1 Strengthen the Barwon SW PRG & PCG to act as the coordination and governance body for regional collaboration on climate resilience.

0 0

2 Identify & prioritise collaborative actions/ opportunities from regional report (see especially risk/adaptation template)

0 0

3 Awareness raising of CRC to Council GMs and executives 0 0

4 Use of other forums such as Regional Managers Forum 0 0

5 Investigate drivers for change and implementation of resilience actions

0 0

6 Bring further stakeholders on board 0 0

7 Research/communicate/ the governance implications 0 0


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8 Continue communication of the project using the dashboard outputs to build further buy-in

0 0

9 Identify champions across the Region 0 0

10 Identify and clarify roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders

0 0

11 Develop a climate adaptation vision for the Barwon SW Region

0 0

Embedding

12 Complete regional adaptation plan Revise Climate Resilience Roadmap (CRR) accordingly 22 2.6

13 Each council to complete climate risk assessment (Risk matrix), Assets at Risk register and adaptation plan 31 4.2

14 Embed climate futures into partner and other key agency strategies, plans and programs (part of prioritisation of actions)

26.5 3.5

15 Identify and prepare Guidance Manuals (Council buildings and resilience)

26 3.5

16 Training in use of SimClim to build internal capacity 30 3.9

17 Climate proof council contracts and procurement 22 3.0

18 Build climate risk into Council budgeting 22 3.0

19 Build resilience considerations into council building management, upgrades and new (building resilience assessments/protocols)

24 3.4

20 Build resilience considerations into asset upgrades and capital works decision making

24 3.4

21 Include climate risk in infrastructure design manual (including resilience assessment for assets and climate proofing and review of design guidelines for councils’ key infrastructure)

26 3.5

22 Incorporate climate change into emergency response - review council emergency response procedures in light of project findings

22 2.8

23 Incorporate climate change into strategies such as the 0 0


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Great South Coast Strategy and G21

24 Create ‘nodes of resilience excellence’ in each council 0 0

25 Embed climate resilience in council social planning (also vulnerable persons policy systems)

0 0

26 Share better practice in embed climate resilience in council land use planning

27 4.0

Funding

27 The Soil Carbon Rearch Program's successor - the National Soil Carbon Program - is funding a number of new projects through the Australian Government's Filling the Research Gap Program

0 0

28 Identify funding options, including consultation partners for funding and collaboration opportunities

0 0

Research

29 Sectoral studies (consider impacts and opportunities) - Agriculture - Tourism - Environment - Coastal Management Guidelines

28.5 4.1

30 Compile best practice case studies of climate risk assessments

0 0

31 Analysis of extreme events - costs, impacts, stress tests -Regional case study -Standardised reporting at organisational level e.g. template - costs, resources required to fix it, what happened.

32 4.5

32 Climate interdependency assessments including development of knowledge and understanding of operational limits of key infrastructure (energy, water, telecommunications etc.))

0 0

33 Demographics for 2030 and/or 2050 and then redoing social sensitivity analysis

21.5 2.4

34 Identify resilience opportunities for the Region (solar farms, wind farms, new tourism potential (warmer, energy efficiency)

0 0

- Additional research projects - sectoral studies 28.5 4.1

- Unserviced water study (vulnerability of people) 27.5 3.7


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Modelling and mapping

35 Bushfire modelling – update for climate change forecasts 27.5 3.7

36 GOR and other key roads - identify hotspots (i.e. flood, inundation) and prepare response plan

32 4.3

37 Additional mapping products – GOR and inundation, ports and inundation, extent of sensitive agricultural practices, bushfire extent, key industries, coastal assets etc

30 4.2

38 SimClim extreme events modelling for summer period (excluding mountain ranges)

30 3.7

39 -Detailed coastal hazard mapping -Erosion -Inundation -Trial other SLR/Storm surge tool (ACE CRC, SimClim) -Other

23.5 3.4

40 Identify and map areas of reticulated and non-reticulated water service

Refer to ‘Additional research projects – sectoral studies’ under the “Research” category

Table 24: List of potential regional projects


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Appendix 6 - Glossary The following table defines key terms used throughout this report.

Term Definition

Adaptation The process or outcome of adjusting to a new set of climatic attributes, from those already existing that leads to a reduction in harm (or risk of harm) associated with climate variability and climate change. Adaptation can be spontaneous or planned, and can be carried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in climatic conditions.

Adaptive capacity

The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, and/or to cope with the consequences. A systems ‘adaptive capacity’ may be based on aspects such as the governance structure, policy, decision-making processes, and resources a.

Adaptation planning

The practice of identifying, assessing, prioritising and implementing options to adapt to climate change, including the process of monitoring, reviewing and adjusting decisions made.


In this project references are made to better practice criteria. Better practice criteria intend to describe the key components that collectively foster effective adaptation. Criteria can be used by municipalities to develop and implement a climate change adaptation plan.

Consequence A measure to describe who and what is affected by a climatic event and how severely affected they are. Consequence is often used in combination with likelihood to better understand climate risks.

Control and influence

Organisations may drive the adaptation agenda, using various means:

• Control: those areas where the organisation is the prime decision-maker and can generate immediate impact without the necessary intervention of others, e.g. for local government, through Council policy and planning measures and resilience activities funded directly through capital works budgets.

• Influence: the ability of an organisation to affect decision making of external stakeholders, e.g. for local government, actively engage transport authorities to align anticipated infrastructural projects, or drive behavioural change among the general public through awareness campaigns.

Cumulative impacts

An impact which results from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time

Downscaling The practice of deriving finer regional or temporal detail of climate variables from global and regional climate models. Downscaling is important in creating a better understanding of climatic conditions at a local level to properly assess risks and tailor design adaptation responses accordingly.


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Term Definition

Ecosystem services

Ecosystem services support agricultural productivity and add to the liveability and wellbeing of communities. Ecosystem services can be grouped into four categories:

• Provisional services: fisheries, pharmaceuticals, sand, etc

• Cultural services: recreation, aesthetics, amenity, spiritual values

• Regulatory services: storm protection, erosion buffers, flood and disease control

• Supporting services: habitat, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, gas cycling, biogeochemical services

Exposure Exposure refers to changes in the climate – temperature, precipitation and sea level. The potential impact is the change in conditions that results in heat waves, drought, flooding, wind, hail, cyclones, bushfires, coastal inundation and relative humidity.

Flexible or adaptive management options

Incremental adaptation options that can be applied one step at a time, so they can be modified if new information becomes available or the situation changes. For example, a sea wall that is designed and built so that it may be easily enhanced in the future for rising sea levels of increased impacts from storm surges.

Likelihood Likelihood refers to the assessment of an outcome or result which has occurred or will occur in the future. Likelihood may be based on statistical or modelling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative analyses. Likelihood is often used in combination with consequence to better understand climate risks.

Low-regrets options

Adaptation options for which the associated costs are relatively low and for which the benefits, although primarily realised under projected future climate change, may be relatively large.

No regrets options

Adaptation options deliver benefits that exceed their costs, regardless of the nature of future projected impacts of climate change.

Priority action

An adaptation action that has been prioritised for implementation. Generally speaking, an action will be prioritised if it is one of ‘no or low regrets’, corresponds to a catastrophic/high risk and/or addresses multiple risks at once.

Resilience The capacity of a system, enterprise or a person to maintain its core purpose and integrity in the face of dramatically changed circumstances.

Risk assessment

The practice of identifying, assessing and prioritising climate change risks. Risk assessments are pivotal to climate adaptation approaches, as they enable a robust and rigorous response to potential impacts.

Sensitivity Sensitivity refers to the responsiveness of an organisation to its physical location and its population. For example, in Local Government, the location of the Municipality determines its sensitivity to climate effects.

Vulnerability Vulnerability refers to the degree to which an organisation is susceptible to manage changes in climate. The components of vulnerability include the combination of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and potential impacts.


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Term Definition

Co-benefit/ Win-Win options

Adaptation options that have the desired result in terms of minimising the climate change risks or exploiting potential opportunities but also have other social, environmental or economic benefits.


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Appendix 7 – References The following table defines key references used in development of this report.

Reference details

Extreme climate risk assessment

• CSIRO (2012), Climate Change in Australia, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/pastchange.php, accessed 24 June 2013.

• Victoria Government Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008). Climate change in Victoria: 2008 Summary.

• Victoria Government Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008), Climate in the Glenelg Hopkins Region.

• Victoria Government Department of Sustainability and Environment (2008), Climate in the Corangamite Region.

• Geoscience Australia (2013), OzCoasts Australian Online Coastal Information, http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/search_data/map_search.jsp, accessed 26 June 2013.

• The State of Victoria, Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability (2012), Foundation Paper One, Climate Change, Victoria: the science, our people and our state of play.

• Department of Sustainability and Environment (2011), Understanding Sea Level Rise, http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/124935/Sea-Level-Rise-Factsheet.pdf, accessed 12 June 2013.

• Victoria Government (2012), Future Coasts Program, http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/future-coasts, accessed 13 August 2013.

• Victoria Government (2012), Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset, http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/future-coasts/victorian-coastal-inundation-dataset, accessed August 2013.

Better practice research

• ACT Government (2009). Strategic Bushfire Management Plan for the ACT. • City of Copenhagen (2011). Copenhagen Climate Adaptation Plan. • City of Greater Geelong (2011). Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. • City of Greater Geelong, RMIT University and Net Balance Foundation (2012). Climate Change

Adaptation toolkit user guide. • City of Kingston (2009). Heatwave Plan. • City of Melbourne (2009). City of Melbourne Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. • City of Port Philip (2010). Climate Adaptation Plan. Climate Adept City. • City of Salisbury (2002). Stormwater recycling through wetlands in the City of Salisbury South

Australia • Clarence City Council (2009). Climate change impacts On Clarence coastal areas – Final Report. • European Climate Adaptation Platform (2010). Uncertainty Guidance. • Graham K, Green G, Heyward O (2012) ‘Glenorchy City Council Corporate Climate Change Adaptation

Plan 2012 - 2013’ Southern Tasmanian Councils Authority. • Griffith University (2012). Learning from cross-border arrangements to support climate change

adaptation in Australia – Stage 1. • ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) Oceania (2008). Local Government Climate

Change Adaptation Toolkit. Cities for Climate Protection Australia Adaptation Initiative. • Intelligent Energy Europe (2008). City instruments – Best Practice Catalogue. Monitoring, Evaluating

and Transferring Instruments to address Climate Change in Metropolitan Regions. • Ku-ring-gai Council (2010). Climate change adaptation strategy.


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Reference details

• Municipal Association of Victoria (2011). Stocktake of Current Victorian Local Government Climate Change Adaptation Planning.

• New York City Panel on Climate Change. (NPCC). 2010. Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response.

• Pillora, S. (June 2010) ‘Australian Local Government and Climate Change’, Working Paper no.1, Australian Centre of Excellence for Local Government, University of Technology Sydney.

• Rotterdam Climate Initiative (2010). Rotterdam Climate Proof. Adaptation Programme 2010. • Scott, J and J. Preston (2011).When is a climate change adaptation model good enough to inform

public policy? Climate change adaptation risk management in local government. • The City of New York (2013). A stronger, more resilient New York. • Tweed Shire Emergency Management Committee & Gold Coast City Local Disaster Management

Group (2010). Cross Border Sub-Plan. A supporting plan for coordinating authorities during disaster/emergency events that impact the Gold Coast – Tweed cross border area.

• WALGA Climate Change Management Toolkit – planning case studies: http://www.walgaclimatechange.com.au/planning-case-studies.htm. Accessed at 21 May 2013.

Regional profiling

• Barwon South West Region – an ideal investment destination: http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/67961/5951-DBI-F-and-B-Barwon-Investment_v2.pdf, accessed 13 June 2013.

• Barwon South West – Victoria’s Region of Opportunity: http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/67929/RDA-BSW-Brochure-January-2011.PDF, accessed 13 June 2013.

• RDA Barwon South West Regional Snapshot: http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/regional-development-australia/committees/barwon-south-west/regional-snapshot, accessed 13 June 2013.

• Profile.id community profile Barwon South West Region: http://profile.id.com.au/g21-region/about?BMID=40&WebID=150, accessed 13 June 2013.

climate resilient communities of the barwon south west ... · figure 1: shaping climate-resilient...

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