CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND

ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND AGRICULTURE

OR “CLIMATE-SMART” AGRICULTURE

Information package for government

authorities

Introduction to the information package

The future of humankind and the planet relies on human activities becoming more

efficient, the food chain being no exception. This online information package was

written with the idea of providing an overview of the challenges that the agriculture

sector—and to a certain extent the food production chain—faces to feed the world

while becoming more efficient. It also explores ways to address these challenges.

Through simplified concepts and relevant resources and examples, we explore the

impacts of global change on agriculture, the impacts of agriculture on ecosystems

and possible technical and policy considerations that can help building food security

under current and future challenges.

The technical and policy considerations explored are meant to contribute towards

climate-resilient and environmentally sound or “climate-smart” agriculture—

agriculture that increases productivity; enhances resilience to global change; stops

ecosystem services deterioration; and produces economic and social benefits.

The information presented here comes from findings, experience and ideas from all

over the world, as we believe there are already elements to catalyse change. We

also believe this change has to come largely from local communities, for which

reason, wherever possible, we provide examples at local levels.

See how to use the information package.

PART I

AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND ECOSYSTEMS: CURRENT

AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

PART II

ADDRESSING CHALLENGES

PACKAGE CONTENT

MODULE 1

AN INTRODUCTION TO CURRENT AND

FUTURE CHALLENGES

Module objectives and structure

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Objectives

This module, intended as a brief introduction, summarises the multiple challenges that

agriculture, and the ecosystems it depends on, are facing and will face in the next decades.

Structure

We give brief introductions to the multiple challenges and illustrate them through information

that has been produced at global level. Illustrations are linked to files with a larger view,

expanding on the topics covered, or providing access to full text documents, click on them to

access the resources.

Caveat

The information provided in this module normally covers estimations at global levels which may

be less refined than information at national level, but they are intended as a way to exemplify

the general global direction and the challenges that agriculture and farmers are facing all over

the world.

An increasing population

• The world population may be 9.3 and 10.1 billion in 2050 and 2100, respectively

• In some regions population will decline and in others it will increase drastically

• More efficient food production will be needed to cover population demands

According to World population prospects, the 2010 revision, the

world’s population will reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by

2100, or 35% and 47% larger than in 2010, respectively.

Changes between 2010 and 2050 will vary between sub-regions

and countries. Populations in some countries are expected to

increase, e.g. Western Asia (+70%), Middle Africa (+120%), Sub-

Saharan Africa (+129%), Eastern Africa (+141%), and Western

Africa (+144%); while in others populations are expect to decline,

e.g. Eastern Europe (-13%) and Eastern Asia (-4%).

The most populated sub-regions by 2050 are expected to be South

Central Asia (2.5 billion), Southern Asia (2.4 billion), Sub-Saharan

Africa (2 billion) and Eastern Asia (1.5 billion).

More efficient food production and distribution will be required to

cover the needs of larger populations in these regions.

Estimated and projected world

population (billions) according to

different variants, 1950–2100.

Source: World population

prospects, the 2010 revision.

Population Division, DESA, UN.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Changes in consumer habits

• Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have increased the

demand for animal products

• It is likely that demand will continue to increase

Rapid income growth, urbanization and population growth have

increased the demand for meat and other animal products in

many developing countries. Despite the complex factors that

control demand, projections suggest a continued growth:

• A 2008 study from IFPRI projected increases in global per

capita demand for meat by 2050 (see table).

• The OECD and FAO project that between 2009 and 2018

dairy demand will continue to grow. In developing countries

per capita demand is expected to increase at an annual rate

of 1.2%. Overall production growth is projected at 1.7% per

year in the same period, particularly in developing countries.

See also The state of food and agriculture 2009, livestock in the

balance.

Meat consumption in 2000 and

projection for 2050 (kg/person/

year).

Source: Adapted from Rosegrant

and Thornton, 2008.

2000 2050

Central and West

Asia and North

Africa 20 33

East and South Asia

and the Pacific 28 51

Latin America and

the Caribbean 58 77

North America and

Europe 83 89

Sub-Saharan Africa 11 22

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Changes in cultivated land

• Global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from 0.44 ha to less

than 0.25 ha over the last 50 years

• The demand for agriculture production by 2050 is expected to be 70% more than

in 2009. Increases should come from intensification on existing land

According to FAO’s State of Land and Water (SOLAW) report, in the

last 50 years:

• the world’s agricultural production has grown between 2.5 and 3

times;

• more than 40% of the increase in food production came from the

doubling of irrigated areas;

• global cultivated land per person has gradually declined from

0.44 ha to less than 0.25 ha.

The decline is due to many factors, such as population increase,

abandonment of agriculture, urbanization, land degradation, etc.

By 2050 the population is likely to demand 70% more food

compared to 2009. The increased production should come primarily

from intensification on existing cultivated land.

Evolution of land under irrigated

and rainfed cropping (1961–2008).

Source: State of Land and Water

(SOLAW), FAO.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Increased water use

• Agriculture uses about 70% of global fresh water withdrawals

• Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50 years

• In some basins abstraction has approached the renewability threshold

According to The world water development report 3, in the year

2000 total global annual freshwater use was about 4,000 km3 with

agriculture withdrawing about 70% (some countries up to 90%).

Annual water withdrawals per person ranged from 20 m3 in

Uganda to more than 5,000 m3 in Turkmenistan, with a world

average of 600 m3. Water withdrawals were highest in arid and

semi-arid areas, where irrigation is most needed for agricultural

production.

Water withdrawals for agriculture have tripled over the last 50

years due to the rapid increase in irrigation.

Abstraction of water has approached or exceeded the threshold of

renewability of water resources in many river basins.

Groundwater withdrawals rose fivefold during the 20th century,

leading to a rapid drawdown of aquifers in some areas.

Water resources and withdrawals in

2000. Source: WWDR-3.

Water withdrawals per person per

country in 2000. Source WWDR-3.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Land and water quality degradation

• Achievements in agricultural production in some cases have been accompanied

by poor land and water management

• Poor land and water management results in degradation of their quality, impacts

on ecosystems and economic losses

Global achievements in agricultural production have been

accompanied in some cases by poor management of cultivated land

and water resources, leading to the deterioration of the ecosystems

of which they are part.

Poor land and water management has contributed to loss of soil

structure, soil nutrients, organic matter and therefore soil fertility;

reduced water storage and supply; increased surface and

groundwater pollution (from excessive use of pesticides and

nutrients); the modification of ecosystems and their services; and

salinization of soils in irrigated drylands.

Rehabilitating degraded ecosystems is costly and sometimes

impossible. In a scenario where higher production is required, there

is a need to monitor practices and avoid losses of land, water and

ecosystem services.Saline soils in agricultural fields.

Photo: T. Friedrich.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Agricultural pollution and GHG emissions

Agricultural pollution, a form of land degradation, is increasing as

the result of inappropriate agriculture intensification practices in

many countries.

The overuse of fertilizers and pesticides, the erosion of soils, and

the production of large amounts of animal waste that is not recycled

or reused is increasing the pollution of soils, water and agricultural

produce. This results in serious concerns for ecosystems and

human health.

In addition, agriculture emits significant amounts of greenhouse

gases (GHG), e.g. CO2 from burning residues, N2O from fertilizers

and CH4 from rice and livestock production.

Module 4 will expand on problems associated with land degradation

and agricultural pollution in particular.Discarded pesticide drums in

Yeliman, Mali.

Photo: FAO/Ivo Balderi.

About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030• Inappropriate agriculture intensification has led to pollution of natural resources in

many countries

• Agriculture also makes a large contribution to emissions of greenhouse gases

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Ecosystem services decline

• People benefit from resources and processes supplied by ecosystems,

collectively called ecosystem services

• Pressure on natural resources affect ecosystems and their services

People benefit from fundamental resources and processes supplied

by ecosystems. These are known as ecosystem services (ES), which

for ease of study, have been classified into provisioning services;

regulating services; supporting services; and cultural services. See

more…

Humans are part of many ecosystems, but our activities are damaging

them at a faster rate that they can recover. If ecosystems are

disrupted, functions start to decline and the production of many

fundamental services for life are impaired.

Scientists and economists are trying to assign values to ES, in order

to understand how much does this decline can cost, but beyond their

monetary value, they are fundamental for life.

An example of a national ecosystem assessment can be found here.

Bee with red pollen on its legs.

Pollination is an essential

ecosystem service.

Photo: Kathy K. Garvey.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Competition for water resources

About 3.9 billion people (over one billion more than in 2008) may be

living under severe water stress by 2030, according to the OECD.

Competition for water exists at all levels and is expected to increase

with higher water stress and demand for water in almost all

countries. Competition can include allocation between:

• Agriculture and cities, in particular with increasing urbanization;

• Electricity generation, crop production and fisheries;

• Livestock, food crops, non-food crops and fisheries;

• Storage of water for drought emergencies, which will reduce

flows for all other sectors;

• Different countries depending on water from the same river

basin.Water stress, 2030.

Source: Environmental Outlook to

2030, OECD.

About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030• About 3.9 billion people may experience severe water stress by 2030

• Competition for water exists at all levels

• Competition between agriculture and non agriculture sectors will increase

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Competition for land: Food or energy?

The risks that climate change pose on food security are particularly

pressing at a time of high oil prices. High fuel prices make

agricultural production more expensive by raising the cost of

fertilizers, irrigation and transportation. In some countries, the need

for efficient energy supplies has resulted in governments biofuel

subsidies and agriculture-based energy production has surged.

In some areas farmers have switched to producing crops for

biodiesel. As new linkages and trade-offs are created between the

energy and agriculture sector, energy and food prices are becoming

increasingly intertwined.

Authorities will face the challenge of guiding communities’

production according to their needs. They will need to plan carefully,

assessing the long term risks or benefits of choosing between food

and energy production.

Fruit of Jatropha curcas, a

biofuel source.

Photo: A. Lubari.

• Farmers in some countries are increasingly using their land for biofuel production

• Authorities will face the challenge of assessing trade-offs between choosing food

or bioenergy production

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Climate variability and change

It is apparent that the world is warming up at a much

faster rate than natural systems, agro-ecosystems and

humans can naturally adapt to.

An increasingly warmer world and a higher incidence of

weather events will have a large impact on agriculture

and food security.

While some regions are likely to benefit from changes,

the large majority of farmers around the world will suffer

the impacts of climate change: the yields of current

cropping systems in many places are likely to fall and

they will need to look for ways to adapt their production

to new conditions.

Modules 2 and 3 expand on climate variability and

change and their impacts for agricultural production.

Changes in

agricultural yields.

Source: World

Development

Report 2010,The

World Bank.

About 3.9 billion may be living under severe water stress by 2030• The world is warming at a much faster rate than agro-ecosystems and humans

can naturally adapt to

• The large majority of farmers will be forced to change their production methods

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Projections of global surface warming.

Source: Climate Change 2007, Synthesis

Report (Syr-3), IPPC.

Resources

References used in this module and further reading

This list contains the references used in this module. You can access the full text of some of

these references through this information package or through their respective websites, by

clicking on references, hyperlinks or images. In the case of material for which we cannot

include the full text due to special copyrights, we provide a link to its abstract in the Internet.

Institutions dealing with the issues covered in the module

In this list you will find resources to identify national and international institutions that might hold

information on the topics covered through out this information package.

Glossary, acronyms and abbreviations

In this glossary you can find the most common terms as used in the context of climate change.

In addition the FAOTERM portal contains agricultural terms in different languages. Acronyms of

institutions and abbreviations used throughout the package are included here.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges

Please select one of the following to continue:

Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges

Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges

Module 2. Climate variability and climate change

Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production

Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health

Part II - Addressing challenges

Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and

examples of production systems

Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies

About the information package:

How to use

Credits

Contact us

How to cite the information package

C. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture

or “climate-smart” agriculture: An information package for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural

Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations.

Module 1. Introduction to current and future challenges