climate resilience and economic growth in developing ... 1 silvia calderon...fuente: dnp – sdas...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Resilience and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Expert Workshop
April 24th, OECD
Silvia L. Calderon D. Department of National Planning
Colombia
Reducing Climate Impacts on Colombia’s Economic Development
Colombia: Geographical Location
Source: World Atlas
Continuación
Located in the Tropical Zone – Climate is influenced by ITCZ
Population: 46.5million GDP per capita: US$ 7,104 GDP Growth Rate (2008-2012): 4% Poverty: 27% (MPI) Source: DANE, DNP, WB Indicators, 2012
Colombia is vulnerable to Climate Variability and Change
Fuente: DNP – SDAS con datos de UNGRD – SNPAD, 2012
Flooding 52%
Landslides 19%
Strong Wind 14%
Forest Fires 3%
Droughts 1%
Avalanche 2%
Continuación
Number of Events: 13.624
90% of Disasters are associated with Hidro-climatic causes (1998 – 2011)
Value of losses by Sector
Source: IDB, ECLAC 2011
Sectors Damage (COP)
2010-2011 % of GDP
(2010)
Habitat 4.908 7,8 Environment 79 n.a Housing 4.303 10,6 Water and sanitation 526 2,4
Infraestructure 4.268 5,4 Transport 3.391 9,8 Energy 877 1,9
Social services and public administration* 1.251 1,5 Productive Sectors 807 2,3 Agriculture and cattle ranching 760 2,1 Non-agriculture 47 0,0
Total 11.233 4,3
* Education, health, family welfare, culture, sports, armed forces and judicial facilities
The value of asset losses due to La Niña 2010-2011 was US$20 billion - 4.3% of 2010 in GDP [0.12% of growth rate]
(Thousands of Millions COP)
Colombia is vulnerable to Climate Variability and Change
GDP would be 2.5% lower by 2040 due to impacts on productivity
Percentage Loss in GDP in relation to Base Escenario (A1B)
Colombia is vulnerable to Climate Variability and Change
Source: SDAS-DNP, 2012
Study on Economic Impacts of Climate Change
Climate Change Policy
Strategy for Fiscal
Protection against Natural
Disasters
Low Emissions Development
Strategy
REDD+ National Strategy
National Adaptation
Plan
Led by DNP, Ministry of Environment, Risk Management Unit and Institute of Hidrology,
Meteorology and Environmental Studies
Comité de Gestión Financiera (Secretarios Comités)
Secretaría Técnica: DNP APC, DNP, Fondo Adaptación, MADS, MHCP,
MRE.
Comisión Intersectorial de Cambio
Climático - COMICC Preside: DNP
Conforma:Ministros o Viceministros delegados de
MADR, MADS, MHCP, MME , MRE, MSPS, MVCT,
MT; DNP, UNGRD, DANE, IDEAM .
Finance Committee
Sectorial Committee
MESAS DE TRABAJO (Mitigación y Adaptación)
Territorial Committee
MESAS DE TRABAJO (Mitigación y Adaptación)
International Affairs
Committee
MESAS DE TRABAJO (Negociaciones)
Information and Climate Change
Studies Committee
MESAS DE TRABAJO (Mitigación y Adaptación)
Climate Change Inter-Sectorial
Comission DNP
Secretary (MADS)
Climate Change Policy
Reducing Climate Impacts on Colombia’s Economic Development
Reduce risk and potential negative impacts of climate variability and climate change on people, ecosystems and the economy
Objective
Increase knowledge on potential risks and opportunities associated with climate variability and climate change.
Mainstream climate risk management in planning at the local and sectorial levels.
Decrease vulnerability of socio-economic and ecological systems.
Specific Objectives
National Adaptation Plan: Objectives
Art. 217 PND 2010-2014
National Adaptation Plan : Guidelines
Natural Resources
Management
Disaster Risk Management
Climate Change
Management
Resilient, Competitive and
Sustainable Development
Sustainable Development must include Climate Change Management
Continuación Planning Instruments must incorporate Climate Change Management
National Adaptation Plan: Guidelines
National Development
Plan
Territorial Land-Use
Plans
River Basin Management
Plans
Municipal and
Provincial Development
Plans
Natural Resources
Mngmt
Climate Change Mngmt
Disaster Risk
Mngmt
Adaptation is a Strategy to Ensure Long Term Competitiveness
National Adaptation Plan: Guidelines
• Losses in productive assets
• Impacts on hydropower generation
• Impacts on crop yields
Effects on Productivity
• Disaster response poses pressure on fiscal policy
• Transportation collapse affects trade
• Environmental degradation increses input costs
Effects on Costs
Infrastructure for Transportation
Agriculture
Health
Energy Generation
Housing
National Adaptation Plan: Priority Sectors
Agriculture: Climate Change Impacts on Yields
National Adaptation Plan : Success
Cotton
Irrigated Rice Sugar Cane
Coffee
Plantain
Banana
Corn
Potatos
Lowest Highest
Negative Impact on Yields
Increase
Study on Economic Impacts of Climate Change
The agricultural sector defined a Road Map
National Agroclimatic System
Improvement of agroclimatic knowledge management
Mainstreaming adaptation in agricultural technical assistance
Agricultural land-use planning
Pilot Adaptation Programs in prioritized crops
National Adaptation Plan : Success
16
2040
Cartagena: Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Mainstreaming CC in Land Use Planning
National Adaptation Plan: Success
Source: CDNK, Invemar, 2012
National Adaptation Plan: Challenges
Information of Hazards, Exposure and Vulnerability:
Availability, Scale, Institutional Capacity
Implementing Risk Reduction and Climate Change in Land Use Planning
Information to implement legal instruments Enforcement of legal instruments Awareness and decisions by individuals and sectors
National Adaptation Plan: Challenges
Financing Climate Change Adaptation
Measures
Projects
Programs
Policy
Priorization
Barriers
A
B
C
Mainstreamming Public Private
Monitoring and Evaluation
Sources
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Strategy for Fiscal Protection against Natural Disasters
The strategy aims at reducing expected losses
Strengthen current measures to reduce risk Collective insurance for public assets Implementation of the Disaster Risk Management Law Contingent loans Assessment of risk transfer instruments
Source: MHCP, 2012
