Climate Refugees:Uncertainty and Insecurity

Josh Gellers, PhDUniversity of North Florida

International Studies Senior Seminar Lecture SeriesSeptember 25, 2015Photo: Munem Wasif

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AgendaDefine climate refugees

Examine current scientific knowledge

Explore status under international law

Evaluate potential solutions

Discuss future prospects

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What is a climate refugee? Photo: www.ccema-portal.org

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Population Mobility

Totally Voluntary Migration(Gradual Environmental Change)

Totally Forced Migration(Natural Disasters)

Photo: Sönke Kreft, UNU-EHS

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Environmental Refugees

Climate Refugees

“People who have to leave their habitats, immediately or in the near future, because of sudden or gradual alterations in their natural environment related to at least one of three impacts of climate change: sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and drought and water scarcity.” (Biermann & Boas, 2010)

“[P]eople who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life.”(UNEP, 1985)

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Climate Change

Sea-Level RiseExtreme Weather

Drought/Water Scarcity

Temporary or Permanent Migration

Causal Connection

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Examples(?)Syria

Photo: Julien Goldstein, NYT

Tuvalu

Photo: Kyodo, AP

Kivalina

Photo: Wikicommons

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What does current science tell us?

Impacts• Almost no reliable

evidence on out-migration. (Bilsborrow, 2009)

• Slow-onset disasters impact more people than sudden events. (IOM, 2010)

• 2008: 20 million+ displaced due to climate-related disasters. (IDMC, 2009)

Projections• 200-250 million climate

refugees by 2050. (Biermann & Boas, 2010)

• Most climate refugees will come from Africa and Asia. (GACGC, 2006)

• “Climate change…is expected to increase displacement of people (medium evidence, high agreement).” (IPCC, 2014)

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Q: Are climate refugees protected under international law?

A: No. Neither of the two main international laws on refugees cover climate refugees.

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Teitiota v. Climate Change

Photo: Birgit Krippner, FP

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Is there a solution?

Expand Refugee Convention

Add climate refugee protocol to UNFCCC

Create new international treaty

Establish ad hoc regional regimes

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What does the future hold?• Issue will be brought up later this year at

COP21 in Paris• UN Advisory Group on Climate Change

and Human Mobility has pledged to provide technical assistance to countries

• Current refugee crisis in Europe a ‘rehearsal’ for the climate refugee crisis?

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Additional Information• Visit UN High Commissioner for Refugees• Watch Do Climate Change ‘Refugees’ Exist?• Watch Climate Refugees (2010)

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Thank you! Questions?